Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,117 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. Frednk, you got it in one. The Greens are estatic with the progress made with Adani. They can now beat the QLD government over the head with it endlessly.

    Meanwhile, it appears the Fed LNP government are virtuous on the Adani matter as you won’t hear a peep out of the Greens condemning them about it.

    The Greens only concern about the environment, is that it is good for wedging Labor.

  2. In my opinion Trump deliberately creates confusion, as does Melania, to unsettle and keep our attention on their weirdness rather than what is covertly being done for their gain.
    Similar to gaslighting, it disturbs those of us wanting rational compassionate leaders at the helm of a shifting world order.
    Also, thanks D&M for your observations re Europe….my father was in the resistance during the Nazi occupation in Holland and so I am ultra sensitive to the dangers of the rise of the right. Your posts reassured me that I’m not just being paranoid , that others share my concern.

  3. Blobbit @ #270 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 9:48 am

    “bad laws”

    How’s democracy broken, when laws which the population approve of, are being enacted?

    A functional Constitutional democracy requires a strong Constitution that spells out what kind of laws the lawmakers can and cannot enact, and what kinds of rights and freedoms they can’t touch whether or not they have popular support.

    A law that would be disallowed under a reasonable Constitution can be legitimately declared “bad” even if it has 50% + 1 backing on a popular basis.

    People can want “bad laws”. It’s not democracy that’s broken, it’s the society we’ve decided to become.

    It’s not having a strong Constitution with a Bill of Rights to tell these people that what they want is flat out wrong, that’s the problem.

    One of the key roles of a Constution is to make it clear that deciding to become an oppressive tyranny is not an option society has.

    (I’m a bit tired of this pretence that the “right” are somehow doing something against the will of most. The majority of people want this)

    The majority of people wanting something doesn’t make it okay. We don’t live in a direct-democracy free-for-all, and although we unfortunately lack an explicit Bill of Rights, legal precedent establishes that we do in fact have rights.

    If the majority of people truly want citizens to have fewer rights and the government to have more power, then all that proves to me is that a majority of people are stupid.

  4. KayJay,

    Yep, that’s where and why the uncertainty in global warming largely exists in the scientific community and why we see varying predictions of what will occur.

    In a lab we can isolate the individual elements and explain fairly simply what’s going on, but when you combine them and allow them to interact it quickly becomes a far more complex scenario.

    On top of this you need to factor in boundary effects, these are ultimately educated guesses, depending on how much supporting data they have.

    I worked on a major research project back in the ’90s, it was one of the first times that Meteorologist and Oceanographers worked together with an aim of trying to better understand the interactions between the atmosphere and the oceans which was a major boundary in all their modeling attempts.

    So, at it’s base level global warming is pretty simple, unless your a blind denier, after that it’s bloody complicated, especially when you start trying to project into the future and why individual predictions need to be taken with a large grain of salt. 🙂

  5. Asking whether Labor can win the next election now is quite ridiculous given that everyone believed, and all evidence available said the Coalition could not win the last election right up until the day of the election.

    All the strategists, pundits and commentators need to sit back and wait a couple of YEARS before trying prognosticate on such questions.

  6. “The majority of people wanting something doesn’t make it okay. ”

    The tyranny of the majority, indeed. That only works though as an argument when there is a majority who want a fair society. I don’t think we’re there, nowadays.

  7. jenauthor:

    Yep. I do have to roll my eyes at all the fevered predictions being bandied about as of late. Did people learn nothing from the events of May 18?

  8. Spotify has about a trillion “classical” music items, no excuse for people not being exposed to it. It’s never going to be as popular as the latest popular music, but it will still be around when today’s greatest is languishing on Sad FM. Contemporary “classical” music is even less popular, but much that is good will still be around long into the future.

    Also, ABC Classic FM did their Top 100 Composers last weekend in case everyone missed it. Too many predictable outcomes, too many movie composers for mine (although some movie composers deserve their spots). Some surprises too -Australian composers up in the top 20, Elena Kats-Chernin the highest ranked Australian composer as well at #16.

    For mine, I got 5 of my picks in the top 100 (1 in the top 20), 4 more in the top 200 and one missed out entirely. I have different tastes to most people.

  9. Did anyone catch the Guardian article or the podcast they do with Katherine Murphy?

    From what I heard the disengaged bought the Fake News. Thats why the wealthy voted Labor and the poor for the LNP.
    It’s not Labor policy or the Greens that we’re to blame.

    On a related matter I Hope Queensland blocks Adani. Could well be the case due to court ruling on Federal Environment over water.

    Edit: Sorry I was referring to their National Survey by University article

  10. Barney in Makassar
    Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 10:40 am
    Comment #504

    Thanks for your input.

    I liken the interaction (in my simple way) to a Universe Sized Snooker Table upon which are 10 to 23 (or so) power coloured balls..

    Predicting where any ball will end in 13.77 billion years will take computing power that will never exist. I think I have lost myself here but I am certain sure that simply saying “nope, nope, nope, crap” will not suffice.

    The New York Times and the Washington Post often have excellent articles relating to climate change/global warming. 🌡

    Au revoir. Day release today. Toodles. 🌞 ☕

  11. Mavis Davis

    That’s a clearer explanation than Setka gave. But I suppose we can’t expect everyone to have a degree in communications!!

  12. The question is not whether Labor can win the next election. It’s whether the Coalition can arrange to lose. On current form, they should be able to put themselves in a losing position. Heck knows they should have been handed the mother of all hidings in both 2016 and 2019…

  13. Mavis
    Setka won’t be getting any support from the SA CFMMEU. They really hate him. At least this is all happening well before another election. It’s going to get ugly unless he resigns voluntarily.

  14. If the Adani mine goes ahead, this will be the ‘ice-breaker’ for others.
    Why is state Labor not shouting loudly about the jobs they are developing which will easily outpace 100 in the mine?

  15. Jaeger says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 10:50 am

    It’s tragic that young people today and the three previous generations have not had the opportunity to broaden their musical horizons much beyond the twang of electric guitars and the boom of amplified bass.

    I’d argue the opposite is true: thanks to the Internet, seek and ye will find.

    -0-
    autocrat says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 11:00 am

    Spotify has about a trillion “classical” music items, no excuse for people not being exposed to it.

    ————————————————

    Yes . The net is an amazing resource because the stuff is all there. Back in the day you got your musical”intelligence” from hearing it on the radio and then purchasing the shellac, vinyl or cassette.

    Perhaps I should have said “motivation” rather than opportunity. But how are young people these days motivated to look for it on the net. There has to be some trigger for that. I’d be more convinced that the net made them more musically aware if I saw more young people at classical music events.

    I’m encouraged when looking at comments on Youtube, even from teenagers, expressing great delight at music from the golden era of pop. They are not very positive about current sounds and some of them go so far as to wish that they were living in the 1920’s or 1930’s.

    Economics are a big factor. There is only so much money to go around. After paying $100 for a rock concert, are they going to have another $100 to attend a classical event?

    But a serious question. Without knowing your demographic or cohort, do you know many young or even middle-age people who have more than a passing interest in classical or even pre-rock popular music?

  16. Lizzie

    Yes. Labor needs to work hard to counter the Fake News lot.
    They have an election to win and will get no credit if they do say yes to Adani and the supposed mass employment.

    The Federal LNP will take all the credit.

  17. There is some pretty fantastic musical opportunities for children who want to sing and are otherwise musically inclined.

    This event in Sydney will be magnificent

  18. The Libs must be rubbing their hands now that the media is besotted with unions and they can pretend falling retail sales are irrelevant.

  19. This result in Tas will really hurt the Labor faithful here…
    Tasmanian Labor voters clearly wanted Singh in and she has been shafted by business as usual factional rubbish. From the last available AEC first preference data:
    BROWN, Carol 5,921
    BILYK, Catryna 1,588
    SHORT, John 1,217
    SINGH, Lisa 19,984
    ROBERTS, Wayne 366
    FLANAGAN, Robert 686
    Now the betrayal is complete it will be interesting where those 20,000 clearly left leaning voters put their no 1 vote at the next election, my bet is that it a large % will not stay with Labor.

  20. Bucephalus Jnr (12) plays Pipe Organ, Keyboard (& hence piano) and Trumpet. He sings in a Choir and plays in a Wind Orchestra and Rock Band. Fortunately he has a music scholarship which defrays some of the costs. He has wonderfully eclectic taste from classical to current stuff.

    He also plays Aussie Rules for school and club, lays a crunching tackle and is the best tagger in his teams.

    He is also politically Conservative.

  21. guytaur says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 11:31 am
    As expected bad job figures. Unemployment has risen.
    5.2%
    The rise came in April stayed steady for May
    —————————
    The unemployment rate is steady at 5.2%, it rose last month.

  22. Which is what I have been saying from the get go. Trump is a treasonous shithead

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    1h
    Remember 12 JUN 2019. Today was the day a sitting President announced he would accept clandestine help from a hostile power to stay in office.

    Translation for the cheap seats: Donald J. Trump, our 45th president, admitted that he is a traitor. On camera.
    Quote Tweet

    Evan McMurry
    @evanmcmurry
    · 3h
    EXCLUSIVE: Pres. Trump tells @GStephanopoulos he wouldn’t necessarily alert the FBI if approached by foreign figures with information on his 2020 opponent: “It’s not an interference. They have information. I think I’d take it.” (link: https://abcn.ws/2R8UZp2) abcn.ws/2R8UZp2

  23. guytaur @ #523 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    As expected bad job figures. Unemployment has risen.

    5.2%

    Isn’t it basically flat (and has been for some time)?

    I mean, I know the Coalition loves to shout every 0.1% improvement from the rooftops as if it means they’ve personally created millions of new jobs, but isn’t the reality that it’s be stuck at “about 5%” for years now?

  24. I always find it interesting when ever the subject of Australia’s approach to Refugees is raised that our World Class voluntary resettlement program of tens of thousands is ignored as is the hundreds of thousands of other immigrants that are welcomed to this country every year.

  25. John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    1h
    Remember 12 JUN 2019. Today was the day a sitting President announced he would accept clandestine help from a hostile power to stay in office.

    Translation for the cheap seats: Donald J. Trump, our 45th president, admitted that he is a traitor. On camera.

    Meh. Trump did that already in 2016 when he said (approximately) “Russia, if you’re listening, go hack Hillary’s emails”. On camera. And they did. And he benefited from it. And nobody cared. 🙁

  26. https://www.theage.com.au/national/uber-s-air-taxi-vision-isn-t-amazing-it-s-dystopian-20190612-p51wze.html

    The decision by the Fair Work Ombudsman last Friday not to take action against Uber over labour standards was disappointing and it follows years of shameful inaction by the federal government. Scott Morrison must decide if his legacy will be backing in the billion-dollar behemoth or standing up for the principles of fairness which have made Australia great.

    Not all jurisdictions are as shy: a British employment tribunal declared Uber drivers are indeed workers; New York city council has set minimum rates for rideshare drivers.

    There is no reason to believe that Uber’s move into aviation would be any different to how it has operated its other business ventures. The sad distinction is there are no second chances when things go wrong thousands of metres up in the air.

  27. a r

    True. He was always a traitor. Maybe people will finally wake up. Not sure what more they are waiting for.

    Trumps time was up ages ago

  28. A former Queensland government water chief says the government has “no clue” what Adani’s mine and others will do to the state’s underground water sources.

    Tom Crothers is a former general manager for water allocation and planning in the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management, and is now a water policy consultant.

    He says the government has been telling people the state’s underground water stores are being managed sustainably.

    But in truth it has no idea of the cumulative impact if all nine Galilee basin mine proposals, including Adani’s, proceed.

    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/politicians-have-no-clue-what-effect-adani-will-have-on-water-expert-20190613-p51xa2.html

  29. :Scott Morrison must decide if his legacy will be backing in the billion-dollar behemoth or standing up for the principles of fairness which have made Australia great.”

    Let’s see, billion dollar behemoth versus principles of fairness. Like any Liberal Prime Minister, Morrison will give that close and detailed consideration for 3 nanoseconds and go with the behemoth.

  30. I have always held the view that when all is exposed on Trump, it would be shock and awe.

    His betrayal to the US for personal enrichment is worse than anyone believed.

    I have been so very wrong in the timeline, as I believed it would have all come to pass by now. Still waiting,. Sigh………..

  31. That article on Uber was a bit of a buff piece from a union rep so not entirety unbias in his views which is fine. Companies like Uber are good at talking up what they can do but eventually they deliver far less than originally offered. Uber despite being an eight year old company cannot turn a profit and probably never will.

  32. guytaur says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 11:59 am

    Victoria

    Yeah. The GOP have been bad enough. I just don’t get Pelosi waiting for Impeachment
    ——————————————-
    I doubt an impeachment will be passed and the Democrats remember that trying to impeach Clinton didn’t do much for the Republicans.

  33. jeff says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 11:36 am

    This result in Tas will really hurt the Labor faithful here…
    Tasmanian Labor voters clearly wanted Singh in and she has been shafted by business as usual factional rubbish. From the last available AEC first preference data:
    BROWN, Carol 5,921
    BILYK, Catryna 1,588
    SHORT, John 1,217
    SINGH, Lisa 19,984
    ROBERTS, Wayne 366
    FLANAGAN, Robert 686
    Now the betrayal is complete it will be interesting where those 20,000 clearly left leaning voters put their no 1 vote at the next election, my bet is that it a large % will not stay with Labor.

    Major logic failure!

    Whilst certainly the majority of Labor voters who voted below the line preferred Singh, clearly the majority of Labor voters were happy with the order the Party presented and voted accordingly above the line.

    Are you trying to say that a below the line vote should carry more weight than an above the line one?

  34. Whilst the political class are focussed on whether or not John Setka said some derogatory remarks aimed at Rosie Batty, our economy is on the brink.

    The construction sector of which John Setka is the Union head here in Victoria, accounts for 10% of workforce.

    If the property market continues to falter it will have a flow on effect on the stock market, wages, employment etc. and lack of money coming in for the infrastructure projects which so far are propping us up.

    A deep recession is a very real possibility.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *