I had a paywalled Crikey article on Friday on the religion factor in the election result, drawing on results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey. Among other things, it had this to say:
The results from the 2016 survey provide some support for the notion, popular on the right of the Liberal Party, that Malcolm Turnbull brought the government to the brink of defeat by losing religious voters, who appear to have flocked back to the party under Morrison. Notably, the fact that non-religious voters trusted Turnbull a lot more than they did Abbott did not translate into extra votes for the Coalition, whereas a two-party swing to Labor of 7% was recorded among the religiously observant.
The charts below expand upon the survey data featured in the article, showing how Labor’s two-party preferred has compared over the years between those who attend religious services several times a year or more (“often”), those who do so less frequently (“sometimes”), and those who don’t do it at all (“never”).
Some other post-election observations:
• Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports the looming Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the election will examine the three-week pre-polling period and the extent of Clive Palmer’s campaign spending. There is not, it would seem, any appetite to explore the debilitating phenomenon of fake news proliferating on social media, for which Australia arguably experienced a watershed moment during the campaign through claims Labor had a policy to introduce a “death tax”. This is explored in depth today in a report in The Guardian and an accompanying opinion piece by Lenore Taylor. That said, not all of the mendacity about death taxes was subterranean, as demonstrated by this official Liberal Party advertisement.
• As best as I can tell, all votes for the House of Representatives have been counted now. There was a fall in the official turnout rate (UPDATE: No, actually — it’s since risen to 91.9%, up from 91.0% in 2016), which, together with the fact that not all votes had been counted at the time, gave rise to a regrettable article in the Age-Herald last week. However, as Ben Raue at the Tally Room explores in depth, the turnout rate reflects the greater coverage of the electoral roll owing to the Australian Electoral Commission’s direct enrolment procedures. This appears to have succeeded to some extent in increasing the effective participation rate, namely votes cast as a proportion of the eligible population rather than those actually enrolled, which by Raue’s reckoning tracked up from 80.0% in 2010 to 83.2% – an enviable result by international standards. However, it has also means a larger share of the non-voting population is now on the roll rather than off it, and hence required to bluff their way out of a fine for not voting.
• The rate of informal voting increased from 5.0% to 5.5%, but those seeking to tie this to an outbreak of apathy are probably thinking too hard. Antony Green notes the shift was peculiar to New South Wales, and puts this down to the proximity of a state election there, maximising confusion arising from its system of optional preferential voting. The real outlier in informal voting rates of recent times was the low level recorded in 2007, which among other things causes me to wonder if there might be an inverse relationship between the informal voting rate and the level of enthusiasm for Labor.
Not Sure
No doubt you get more for your money in the US and Europe/UK than you do in Australia. There is expensive real estate in wealthy parts of London and New York but in Australia there are many cases where its hard to justify the high property prices.
Briefly
That is why I consider welfare to be part of the economic debate, you can add wages to that but that is already part of the economic debate.
Gday Bludgers.
I’ve escaped the Bludger’s rehab wing at the Betty Ford Clinic momentarily.
Re: Briefly’s post at 1:15pm. Agreed.
I reckon that Labor should be preparing the battleground for 2022 on the assumption of a stagnant economy, perhaps on in deep recession. I reckon we should develop a suite of policies that mix in the old Working Nation training and employment programs with a national infrastructure program.
Cheerio y’all. I’m going back to bludger rehab but I’ll check back in when I escape the clinic again sometime into the not too distant future.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 1:22 pm
…”No doubt you get more for your money in the US and Europe/UK than you do in Australia. There is expensive real estate in wealthy parts of London and New York but in Australia there are many cases where its hard to justify the high property prices”…
Well yes, but Melbourne isn’t London is it?
And it certainly ain’t New York.
Just about any family with 1 full time job, and 1 part time job and $15k – $20k in savings can buy a house within commute distance of L.A. or Dallas or San Diego or Chicago.
You cant do an equivalent thing in Geelong or Parramatta or Townsville, and you certainly can’t in a major Australian city.
We are being ripped off, beated down, robbed and rorted.
Plain and simple.
Not sure
Agreed. But Australians voted for the status quo.
Andrew Earlwood
I would be happy if Labor just simply attacking the coalition relentlessly. Day in day out.
Followed by joke and smiley icons. 🙂
lizzie
That was a cracker from Fr Rod!
Victoria:
Agreed. And let’s see some parliamentary inquiries attempted to look into MDB and the GBR for starters.
Fess
Yes it would be a good start.
@Andrew_Earlwood
I am convinced that in 2022 we as a country will be in a deep recession if not economic depression, with unemployment reaching up to 20%.
Labor should be developing an economic policy along the lines of the Green New Deal (financed by Modern Monetary Theory) to help the transition into a post-fossil fuels economy. Such an economic plan would rebuild our manufacturing on environmentally sustainable foundations. Not to mention helping to combat economic inequality, unemployment and underemployment.
Policies which would achieve ecological sustainability and increase the standard of living would be very attractive to a lot of people. An severe recession or depression would make people quite receptive to it as well.
Confessions @ #119 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 11:45 am
Hi, sorry I didn’t answer sooner, I just had a sudden urge to vacuum the house! 😯
So, by organic, that means all the ingredients that he sources for his gelato and cakes are organic, he uses grass-fed cows milk and Fair Trade Coffee. 🙂
Victoria,
I’m almost convinced that the status quo might be better in the long run than the alternative.
At least, that is what I intend telling myself for the next three years.
And relevant that this is about temperate (not tropical) forests. Clear parallels with eucalyptus forests in Victoria.
Older forests resist change, climate change, that is
With age, forests in eastern US and Canada become less vulnerable to climate change, study finds
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/06/190607122408.htm
C@t:
Oh.
It looks like those who believe in an invisible man in the sky demand to be patronised to a greater degree.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 2:06 pm
…”So, by organic, that means all the ingredients that he sources for his gelato and cakes are organic, he uses grass-fed cows milk and Fair Trade Coffee”…
I worked in a restaurant that claimed “with organic lemon” as an accompaniment to a seafood dish.
One smart arsed patron pointed this out to me and asked: “as apposed to inorganic, like a rock?”.
I think he may have been riffing off The Simpson’s, or was a chemist.
briefly
The Greens (who got way, way ahead of themselves in counting their chickens before the election) may be tone deaf and just as bad at politics as Labor, but the ranting and raving on this blog about them (sometimes we’re talking pages and pages of posts following each other) is incredibly tedious and off-putting. It’s tiresome. Far more energy is spent on Labor-Greens wars than is warranted. There’s minimal value in it.
This is the last thing I’ll say on the subject for a while because I expect this comment (and similar comments that may be made in the future) to prompt more outpourings, not fewer, like a red rag to a bull … :P.
Not sure
Know what you mean. Human nature has a way of rationalising stuff
Lol….
The federal government needs to be running deficits so that the domestic private sector can run surpluses and the external sector can run surpluses. It is profoundly stupid to be talking about fiscal surpluses right now. A fiscal surplus today would involve throwing some people out of work and forcing some people to run down their savings.
Victoria,
I seem to have skipped denial and shock, and gone straight from anger to resignation.
I was reminded of Rev. Bower’s bid for the senate. For those interested his total ticket got just over 25,000 votes or 0.03 quotas. No Bottom on the red leather for him
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 2:32 pm
…”I was reminded of Rev. Bower’s bid for the senate. For those interested his total ticket got just over 25,000 votes or 0.03 quotas. No Bottom on the red leather for him”…
That’s roughly 24,999 more votes than you would have received, had you nominated.
(edit) 24,998 votes.
I assume your wife would have voted for you?
@Not Sure s
For myself it was a transition from sadness and resignation, honestly I don’t believe a lot of our fellow Australians will be shaken out of their complacency, unless an economic catastrophe occurs.
Although I believe something like that will very likely occur in the next couple of years. Apart from an economic depression with unemployment rising to 20%, a lot of people’s wealth in property, shares and superannuation is going to be wiped out. That would definitely shake a lot of people in this country out of their complacency.
Also, wouldn’t 25,000 votes be closer to 4% or 5% of a quota in NSW rather than 3 one hundredths of one?
Tristo says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 2:41 pm
There is no economic catastrophe coming, and houses being valued at half what they are now would not cause one.
At least Labor has Mark Dreyfus QC leading the attack on civil liberties. Rest easy y’all
Should make for a magnificent spectacle!
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 2:53 pm
…”At least Labor has Mark Dreyfus QC leading the attack on civil liberties. Rest easy y’all”…
I suspect that c@tmomma, for all her many and varied faults, is right on the money about you, buddy.
One of the many unpleasant realities of this election is the Libs managed to organise generational change in this election, Labor not so much, especially in Victoria where there is a real staleness to the Labor representation. Many of the Labor front bench will be in their early to mid 50’s where Labor to win in 2022.
Albo really needs to be able to clean house.
It may make more sense to push out everybody who is tainted from the RGR era and start afresh.
Claire O’Neill for instance should have been straight into Shadow Cabinet. Alicia Payne is another one who should have been earmarked for immediate promotion.
Not Sure @ #181 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
I haz positive qualities too! 😀
Unlike the ESJ sock puppet.
The ABC’s Gaven Morris just posted this link to a New York Times editorial on the AFP raids.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/opinion/australia-journalists-police-raids.html
In Australia, it’s hard to get anything other than grass fed cows’ milk.
Darned vegan cows and their organic eating habits.
@Lars Von Trier
The Labor frontbench at the 2022 election is still considerably younger on average than say the candidates Democratic Nomination race.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 3:05 pm
…”I haz positive qualities too!”…
Many.
Go get the bastard.
I’m too tired.
Tristo
By 2021 I predict the unemployment rate in Australia will be nudging 40%
The Morrison government will be in hiding with 2 leadership coups between 2029 and 2022
Dutton will be PM.
US and UK government’s advising non-essential travel to Australia
We would be another South Africa
zoomster @ #184 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 1:30 pm
Yes I did wonder about that. I know the dairy cows in this area are all grass fed, but wasn’t sure about over east.
@Sgh1969
Depending on definition of the unemployment rate, my prediction of 20% would the ABS one. Although Roy Morgan’s measure of unemployment could very well be 30%.
I don’t have much of an idea yet, how this economic collapse will play out politically. Since I am predicting a banking crash as a part of it, leading to a government bank bailout. Labor would be ill advised to support a government bailout of the banks. Because a lot of people will be angry at the politicians and parties who supported it and reward those who oppose it.
Sackwatch update
ABC to terminate 250+ staff by end of June
Coles to sack 2,342 staff and close 32 stores Australia wide end of August
Myer to close stores at Knox, Geelong, Chadstone by end of July
@Sgh1969
Wow, where you did find out about the news, I know Big W are closing quite a number of stores in the following months.
https://www.bhg.com.au/big-w-closing-60-stores
C@tmomma,
Can I ask why it took 2 hours and 21 minutes to vacuum your house?
Is it a manshun?
Do you have 2 inch thick plush pile carpet throughout?
Not Sure @ #195 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 3:48 pm
Nope. Two bedroom fibro majestic. But then I went and had a nice warm shower. Plus played a game on my computer for a while. 🙂
This is the milk we buy:
http://www.greenpasturesmovement.com.au/
They have the highest standards of animal welfare for their cows.
A macroeconomy has three demand injections going into it and three demand leakages coming out of it.
demand injections:
1. federal government spending
2. external sector’s spending on our exports
3. household dissaving (households spending down savings)
demand leakages:
1. federal government tax receipts
2. our spending on the external sector’s products
3. household saving
Every dollar of demand injection is balanced by a dollar of demand leakage. The injections and the leakages sum to zero.
Australia typically runs a current account deficit. This means that the rest of the world (the external sector) is in net terms a demand leakage for Australia’s macroeconomy. We spend more on the rest of the world’s products than the rest of the world spend on our products.
Australia’s domestic private sector typically runs a surplus. That means that Australia’s households want to spend less than they earn. They want to be net savers. This means that Australia’s private sector is in net terms a demand leakage for Australia’s macroeconomy.
The federal government needs to run a deficit that is equal to the sum of the external sector surplus and the domestic private sector surplus. The federal government’s macroeconomic task is to do precisely that amount of net spending – no more, and no less.
C@tmomma says: Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 4:05 pm
This is the milk we buy:
http://www.greenpasturesmovement.com.au/
They have the highest standards of animal welfare for their cows.
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Yep – even the visiting Chinese sailors decided to stock up on OUR milk during their Sydney stop over :
Chinese military personnel have been spotted loading baby formula and face masks onto a warship before leaving Sydney Harbour.
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/chinese-warships-pictured-loaded-with-australian-baby-formula-before-departure/news-story/934ce3aaf9df90e18a521d6bee1c90c9
C@
I find that site high on rhetoric and low on actual information.
It’s very much ‘take our word for it’.
Bummed I’m not in Perth today. Wouldn’t have minded meeting Albo at the event later this afternoon.
Confessions says: Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 4:24 pm
Bummed I’m not in Perth today. Wouldn’t have minded meeting Albo at the event later this afternoon.
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I read that Albo was a bit upset that Confessions would not be there to meet him in WA 🙂
Hopefully in absentia Poroti is there to carry the PB flag ….