I had a paywalled Crikey article on Friday on the religion factor in the election result, drawing on results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey. Among other things, it had this to say:
The results from the 2016 survey provide some support for the notion, popular on the right of the Liberal Party, that Malcolm Turnbull brought the government to the brink of defeat by losing religious voters, who appear to have flocked back to the party under Morrison. Notably, the fact that non-religious voters trusted Turnbull a lot more than they did Abbott did not translate into extra votes for the Coalition, whereas a two-party swing to Labor of 7% was recorded among the religiously observant.
The charts below expand upon the survey data featured in the article, showing how Labor’s two-party preferred has compared over the years between those who attend religious services several times a year or more (“often”), those who do so less frequently (“sometimes”), and those who don’t do it at all (“never”).
Some other post-election observations:
• Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports the looming Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the election will examine the three-week pre-polling period and the extent of Clive Palmer’s campaign spending. There is not, it would seem, any appetite to explore the debilitating phenomenon of fake news proliferating on social media, for which Australia arguably experienced a watershed moment during the campaign through claims Labor had a policy to introduce a “death tax”. This is explored in depth today in a report in The Guardian and an accompanying opinion piece by Lenore Taylor. That said, not all of the mendacity about death taxes was subterranean, as demonstrated by this official Liberal Party advertisement.
• As best as I can tell, all votes for the House of Representatives have been counted now. There was a fall in the official turnout rate (UPDATE: No, actually — it’s since risen to 91.9%, up from 91.0% in 2016), which, together with the fact that not all votes had been counted at the time, gave rise to a regrettable article in the Age-Herald last week. However, as Ben Raue at the Tally Room explores in depth, the turnout rate reflects the greater coverage of the electoral roll owing to the Australian Electoral Commission’s direct enrolment procedures. This appears to have succeeded to some extent in increasing the effective participation rate, namely votes cast as a proportion of the eligible population rather than those actually enrolled, which by Raue’s reckoning tracked up from 80.0% in 2010 to 83.2% – an enviable result by international standards. However, it has also means a larger share of the non-voting population is now on the roll rather than off it, and hence required to bluff their way out of a fine for not voting.
• The rate of informal voting increased from 5.0% to 5.5%, but those seeking to tie this to an outbreak of apathy are probably thinking too hard. Antony Green notes the shift was peculiar to New South Wales, and puts this down to the proximity of a state election there, maximising confusion arising from its system of optional preferential voting. The real outlier in informal voting rates of recent times was the low level recorded in 2007, which among other things causes me to wonder if there might be an inverse relationship between the informal voting rate and the level of enthusiasm for Labor.
If the Coalition has to put a big stimulus package into place it will put the sword to their ridicule of Labor’s (successful intervention during the GFC.
Melbourne is no longer over valued, it might see further falls but its already come off by 10%+.
vote1julia
I’m afraid you’re correct. I think it was Middleton who said this morning that the two main parties removed the minors from representation on the security committee, where previously someone like Andrew Wilkie (who knew all the dangers from experience) had been there.
Wilkie should be a walk up starter for any security or intelligence committee.
@BK
The Coalition in panic about a collapsing economy along with voter support, will probably forget about that.
Also I don’t think a horror budget in 2020 would get through the Senate, the neither the Labor or cross-bench senators will support it, apart from Cory Bernardi. Not to mention they would remember what the reception from the voters was like for the 2014 budget.
Tristo
Do we know the exact composition of the Senate yet?
Mexicanbeemer
I would agree that the market here in Melbourne has had a correction of sorts.
Luckily we have some infrastructure projects on the go to keep the economy kicking along.
Otherwise looking quite anaemic.
Victoria
That is why I’m more upbeat than Tristo is because the number of on-going projects is substantial from railway crossings to Metro and further on the Rail loop.
Victoria @ #108 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 9:22 am
Our state Labor govt is creating jobs through infrastructure projects like Metronet.
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/mcgowan-goverrnments-metronet-plans-mean-plenty-of-development-cash-to-grab-ng-b881223685z
@lizzie
According to the ABC Elections website only one senate seat is in doubt now.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/senate
Coalition 35
Labor 26-27
Greens 8-9
One Nation 2
Centre Alliance 2
Australian Conservatives 1
Jackie Lambie 1
BK @ #103 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 11:13 am
But they will be quick to claim credit for it if it works. 😐
Mexicanbeemer
And the north east link is almost ready to start to. Huge project.
Tristo
Thanks. Still going to be tough then.
Victoria
Absolutely and maybe Tristo isn’t a Victorian but while the state government remains committed to its pipeline of projects I don’t see the Victorian economy suffering a substantial downturn.
But it is in Queensland, WA and NSW where a lot of the land speculators are and where the Coalition is the strongest. In Victoria too but that is because people are moving to Victoria and need to be housed. Where are they coming from? Those other places, who are keeping up their own massive building programs as well but the people there aren’t so happy to see the amenity of their neighbourhoods destroyed just to house more people from overseas.
And this includes Greens voters as well. I had a fascinating conversation with one yesterday. Runs an organic gelato and coffee shop in Woy Woy. I didn’t lead him to say it but I just sat back and let him rip against the ‘flood of immigrants’ to this country and how they were destroying it for everyone else. Overdevelopment, destruction of natural habitat, overburdening of our natural resources was his tack but it came down to a very hostile attitude towards immigration AND asylum seekers! He was quite happy to see the boats stopped.
There is a call for a progressive voice in broadcast (audio & visual). Libs would no doubt argue that we already have the ABC.
What the hell is organic gelato?!
Confessions
Some years ago some crowd was selling bottled “Organig Water”!
Do you people genuinely not know that “organic’s” current meaning is a product not touched/affected/grown by application of poisons? (This isn’t to say all claims are true.)
BK:
A fool and their money are soon parted!
BK @ #101 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 11:13 am
No it won’t.
Once again we are seeing Labor being blamed for measures that the government originated.
Cassidy, with Marles like a bunny in the headlights this morning, gave Labor a booting, and now ostensible Labor supporters are doing the same thing. I expect the Greens to join in the tut-tutting at any moment.
Please, all of you, recall that Labor has been in opposition for the past 6 years.
Yet Labor alone is expected to meet all the moral criteria for sainthood – from critics on either side, as well as within – while the government gets away with platitudes about “always supporting the laws of Australia”.
The Australian public, the media, Labor’s political opponents and even sections of its own supporters all expect Labor to do the heavy moral lifting in politics. Yet they refuse to grant them the pragmatic tools needed to attempt to achieve government.
As a result the very thing these critics claim to hate (excepting government supporters of course, who are laughing all the way to the bank) is returned to power time after time, because Labor and the Left in general seems more interested in fighting and sniping internally than fighting to gain government.
C@t, the land and construction sectors here are in trouble. My welder mates – in business for 40 years in Perth’s north – say it’s ‘never been so bad’. They’ve been relying on a single long term contract for about 70% of their sales over the last 3 years. All further work on that project has been cancelled without notice. The contracting party – a large manufacturer of products used in house building – has enough inventory to last more than 2 years. They have a 30-35% share of the market in Perth for this particular set of lines. The crunch is on for them.
I know another business out here that manufactures window frames, specialty windows and complete kitchens. They have a really excellent factory, great management, a long record, and best-in-class products. They have almost totally shut down.
The local plumbers and electricians have cut their teams by more than 70% over the last few years, trying to survive. Their charge-out rates are lower now than 5 years ago and still falling, and there’s almost no wait-time for services. A similar story can be told by the CCTV firm that supplies hardware and backup in the area where I work.
This is getting worse. I really hope it bottoms out soon and starts to improve.
Marles could have said that the raids were made on the basis of the previous legislation, and Labor had since supported new legislation which protected journalists.
Confessions says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 11:45 am
Runs an organic gelato
What the hell is organic gelato?!
The opposite of inorganic gelato.
Think the best comment on insiders to day was from Penny Wong.
Describe Barry Cassidy………….a Journalist.
More than can be said of many of them out there.
briefly:
It’s an entirely ridiculous description to me.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 11:41 am
……this includes Greens voters as well. I had a fascinating conversation with one yesterday. Runs an organic gelato and coffee shop in Woy Woy. I didn’t lead him to say it but I just sat back and let him rip against the ‘flood of immigrants’ to this country and how they were destroying it for everyone else. Overdevelopment, destruction of natural habitat, overburdening of our natural resources was his tack but it came down to a very hostile attitude towards immigration AND asylum seekers! He was quite happy to see the boats stopped.
Green/PHON…manufacturers, importers and wholesale merchants of fear….same/same
The reality. Chalmers did a blood good job in the circs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jim-chalmers-labor-s-values-have-not-changed-20190607-p51vl0.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1560038097
Confessions says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 12:02 pm
briefly:
It’s an entirely ridiculous description to me.
I wonder what you have to do to be permitted to use the term ‘organic’ as applied to gelato….everything used to make it and serve it would have to be ‘organic’-approved. Tough to comply.
It illustrates something though….a lot of people are worried about the integrity of the food supply….about genetically-modified ingredients, about the Caron footprint, the health/nutritional qualities of their food….
briefly:
That’s why I wondered what it was.
I’ve read a lot of organic gardening books – some of which, amongst other things, recommends using nicotine (one of the deadliest poisons out there) as an ‘organic’ alternative.
A chemical is a chemical is a chemical. An ‘organic’ alternative which kills caterpillars is just as much a poison as anything else used to kill caterpillars (squishing them with your fingers or smothering them with ash apart). If anything, it can be a more dangerous alternative because the dosages and their effects haven’t been worked out as precisely.
Highly processed food (such as hamburger buns that never go mouldy) must surely be the most ‘inorganic’ food.
Regarding the secret stuff and Afghan events:
WA Labor has an event on today – meet Albo. I’m interested to hear what he has to say to us. Will he have a vision for Labor, for rebuilding our credit with working people?
Our PV plurality is just 1/3. Anti-Labor voices command an aggregate 2/3 PVs.
Does he have a message that will resonate with voters that will enable us to regain votes lost to our enemies, to those that would destroy us?
It’s very clear that unless Labor rebuilds it’s plurality we will remain out of office.
Worth reading for a reminder, I think.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/afp-raids-add-to-picture-of-a-morrison-government-emboldened-20190607-p51vkq.html
@lizzie
I don’t think too many of the people who voted for the government either by their primary vote or preferences cares about these raids. They are probably fine with it, as long as the ‘Boats’ are turned back, economy kept strong and whatever tax breaks they receive keep on flowing.
The basic problem the Liberals have with the economy is their subscription to the idea that a balanced budget will create a full-employment economy; an economy that is as strong as it could theoretically be.
This is a false idea. But they will stick to it.
They seem to think they can repeal Keyne’s General Theory simply by declaring a belief in balanced budgets. This is just incredibly stupid. The last time an Australian government tried to respond to a contraction in demand by balancing the budget was in response to the Depression. It only made things worse….much, much worse.
My own surmise about the economy is that we’ve passed the point of sustainable exploitation of households (labour). Real household income declines and real indebtedness mean household demand must falter. It must. If household demand is falling and public demand is falling at the same time, the economy can only be supported by either investment or the export sector or both. Neither of these sources are large enough or strong enough to compensate for the fall in household-led consumption. We can already see this contraction in consumption in declines in car sales, housing starts and retail sales. The next-round cycle in response to such declines would be a decline in hours worked by the labour force and a fall in employment. If these take hold, further contractions in consumption will be inevitable. Cycles of liquidation in the private sector will ensue.
Once this process commences it will be very difficult – maybe impossible – to arrest without the use of extraordinary stimulus measures. The Liberals – arch reactionaries and idiots that they are – will most likely resist stimulus. Instead they will try even harder to balance the budget, in the mistaken belief that cutting will be the cure. They will try the anti-Rudd formula. It will fail.
We can run a strong economy in this country by lifting household incomes – wages – and by regulating the labour market so that workers have more security. We can sustain investment and employment by lifting the household share of GDP. These ideas are well out of favour. They need to be re-stated and re-enacted. Labor need to do it. The Liberals never will.
Tristo
Not sure about that, if the government were confident of that then they wouldn’t have been eager to distance themselves from it. It might worked against them where people are worried about rights or had experienced dictatorial regimes, take a seat like Chisholm with its large Chinese community.
Victoria
“And the north east link is almost ready to start to. Huge project.”
It is sometimes unfortunate that we measure recessions nationally because the circumstances of states vary hugely. Federal policy stinks but Vic and NSW are doing fine thanks to state level investment. SA is stagnant (about to go backwards as projects finish and big defence work is years away) and NT, QLD, Tas and WA are all in effective recession now. Without the mining boom Qld and WA do not have the financial muscle to get moving on their own. NT and Tas never did.
Without high immigration and state projects in NSW and Vic we would have been in a recession for a while already. I agree with briefly on WA.
This is why closing mines in Qld is scary for the locals. There is nothing else to go to.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 11:13 am
…”Melbourne is no longer over valued, it might see further falls but its already come off by 10%+”…
In 2016 I considered, but regretfully missed, an opportunity to purchase a 2 and a half storey, 6 bedroom, 4.5 bathroom home with 2 garages on Ocean Avenue in Santa Monica, with panoramic views of the North Pacific Ocean and the pier with the ferris wheel that Forest Gump stopped at the end of, to contemplate his life.
Can you guess the offer price of this property?
Melbourne is a shithole, and is overpriced to the shithouse.
We live in a quasi-tyrannical system. Civil liberties and the legal rights of individuals and civil organisations with respect to the State and corporations are really seriously abridged in many ways. Voters have put up with this on the grounds of “safety” – safety from terrorism and safety in the jobs market. The tyrannies include the conspicuous cruelties used to exploit asylum seekers. They include the oppression of workers and unions. They include the corruption of the bureaucracy, the police and the security organs. They include restrictions on the media and on political groups. They include the restraints placed on environmental defenders and on limits imposed on access to the judiciary. They include the use of arbitrary powers to detain, search, arrest and imprison people.
The tyrannies need to be abolished.
Unfortunately, we live in what is becoming a near-one-party State. The legal opposition is tolerated only as long as it cannot win. It’s clear the Right can mobilise as much money as they need to campaign against Labor and its very few allies. It’s clear the Right will use any falsehood, any defilement of the truth to defeat Labor.
We really have to get used to the idea that the Right are utterly ruthless. They will not just cede power to Labor – even to a moderate Labor. They are not going to play fair. They never do.
lizzie
This is a government of thugs, bullies and liars. It’s been like that since day 1 under Abbott, it remained that way under Turnbull, and it’s going to stay that way because that’s what the Australian people keep voting for. That they’ve been building the apparatus to exercise their malice since they got into government has been blithely ignored.
The hypocrites in the press are only complaining now because the malice is directed at them. While it happened to the powerless, the unseen and unheard, or people they either didn’t like or didn’t care about, they could ignore it, claim it was deserved/justified, or write it up as a clever political game.
Not Sure
That would depend on the house, they can be anywhere from a few million to less than a million.
DisplayName
With the Libs in power for at least three years, it could get worse.
Will the power and spread of 2GB and Sky grow?
Will Ita really defend the ABC?
Will anybody care, if real recession hits?
Display Name….Labor dropped the ball a long time ago. Voters will express their economic demands first and last at elections. We’ve failed to make explicit our commitments to the economic well-being of working people. We’ve allowed ourselves to be depicted in ways that imply we do not care about their economic well being. The result is we not only lose elections, we cannot enact any of our program at all. The result is we’ve been very much diminished in the eyes of voters. We have to be unequivocal about our commitment to the well-being of workers and their families.
As an illustration, the Labor candidate in Stirling in the recent election, Melita Markey, was a personal embodiment of a commitment to the well-being of workers. She’s the CEO of the Asbestos Diseases Society. She won a small swing to Labor, unlike the results in other Perth seats, where Labor lost ground.
This is not complicated. It’s very straightforward. It worked for Rudd. It can work again. If we do not do it, we will continue to lose.
Lizzie
Of course they will care if there was a recession but the ALP will need to focus itself on the economy instead of allowing itself to be distracted with feel good policies that don’t address the economy and I include welfare in any economic discussion.
Labor need to be explicit. We will defeat the Liberals and the Greens. We will do it by fixing the economy and attending to the environment at the same time.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 1:11 pm
…”That would depend on the house, they can be anywhere from a few million to less than a million”…
Offers over US $1.1 million and it was an incredible house.
Equivalent 6-8km from Brisbane CBD with a river view would cost over $3 million.
God only knows how much this would be in Melbourne.
And the same house in Sydney with a Harbour view, I couldn’t even imagine.
Mexicanbeemer….the social incomes side of the equation cannot be ignored. Strong social incomes are very good for the economy. Very good. They put a floor under household demand….a floor that basically no longer exists. We are going to need the floor. We have no ceiling. But we need a floor.