The first pollster to put its head above the parapet post-election has been Essential Research, though it’s sensibly refraining from treating us to voting intention results for the time being. As reported in The Guardian yesterday, the pollster’s fortnightly survey focused on what respondents did do rather than what they would do, finding 48% saying their decision was made well in advance of the election, 26% saying they made up their mind in the weeks before the election, and 11% saying they made up their mind on polling day. Lest this seemingly high rate of indecision be cited as an alibi for pollster failure, the historical results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study – which you can find displayed on page 18 here – suggest these numbers to be in no way out of the ordinary.
The poll also found those who decided in the final weeks came down 40% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor. However, assuming the sample for this poll was as per the Essential norm of between 1000 and 1100 (which I hope to be able to verify later today), the margin of error on this subset of the total sample would have been over 5%, making these numbers statistically indistinguishable from the almost-final national primary vote totals of 41.4% for the Coalition and 33.3% for Labor. This goes double for the finding that those who decided on election day went Coalition 38% and Labor 27%, remembering this counted for only 11% of the sample.
Perhaps notable is a finding that only 22% of respondents said they had played “close attention” to the election campaign, which compares with results of between 30% and 40% for the Australian Election Study’s almost equivalent response for “a good deal of interest in the election” between 1996 and 2016. Forty-four per cent said they had paid little or no attention, and 34% some attention. These findings may be relevant to the notion that the pollsters failed because they had too many politically engaged respondents in their sample. The Guardian reports breakdowns were provided on this question for voters at different levels of education – perhaps the fact that this question was asked signifies that they will seek to redress the problem by weighting for this in future.
Also featured are unsurprising findings on issue salience, with those more concerned with economic management tending to favour the Coalition, and those prioritising education and climate change favouring Labor and the Greens.
In other post-election analysis news, the Grattan Institute offers further data illustrating some now familiar themes: the high-income areas swung against the Coalition, whereas low-to-middle income ones went solidly the other way; areas with low tertiary education swung to the Coalition, although less so in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.
Another popular notion is that Labor owes its defeat to a loss of support among religious voters, as a hangover from the same-sex marriage referendum and, in what may have been a sleeper issue at the cultural level, the Israel Folau controversy. Chris Bowen said in the wake of the defeat that he had encountered a view that “people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them”, and The Australian reported on Saturday that Labor MPs believed Bill Shorten blundered in castigating Scott Morrison for declining to affirm that he did not believe gay people would go to hell.
In reviewing Labor’s apparent under-performance among ethnic communities in Sydney and Melbourne, Andrew Jakubowicz and Christina Ho in The Conversation downplay the impact of religious factors, pointing to a precipitous decline in support for Christian minor parties, and propose that Labor’s promised expansion of parental reunion visas backfired on them. Intended to capture the Chinese vote in Chisholm, Banks and Reid, the actual effect was to encourage notions of an imminent influx of Muslim immigrants, “scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters”.
However, I’m not clear what this is based on, beyond the fact that the Liberals did a lot better in Banks than they did in neighbouring Barton, home to “very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents”. Two things may be said in response to this. One is that the nation’s most Islamic electorate, Watson and Blaxland, recorded swings of 4% to 5% to the Liberals, no different from Banks. The other is that the boundary between Banks and Barton runs right through the Chinese enclave of Hurstville, but voters on either side of the line behaved very differently. The Hurstville pre-poll voting centre, which serviced both electorates, recorded a 4.8% swing to Labor for Barton, and a 5.7% swing to Liberal for Banks. This may suggest that sitting member factors played an important role, and are perhaps of particular significance for Chinese voters.
The uniformed arm of the Tory Party – the AFP – are up to their old tricks again:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-federal-police-raid-abc-headquarters-at-sydney-s-ultimo-20190605-p51uof.html
Porter says Nothing to see here. These things often take some time.
Today’s futile attempt by Essential “boffins” at conjuring up a plausible foundation to be shriven of their epic psephological failure calls to mind a pre-internet entreaty from self-proclaimed stick in the mud art historian Kenneth Clark in his television documentary series ‘Civilisation, a Personal View’.
When lauding Auguste Rodin’s sculpture of Honore de Balzac, Clark bursts out of his customary academic tone and exclaims that Rodin’s masterpiece “should inspire us to defy all those forces that threaten to impair our humanity- lies, tanks, tear gas, ideologies, opinion polls, mechanisation, computers, the whole lot.”
Circumstances obviate my commenting for an indefinite duration, so all the best to you Bludgers who habitually post a plethora of illuminating and salient observations here. Muchas, muchas gracias, BK, for Dawn Patrol.
Shit economy
Chinese warships
Mass murderer in Darwin
Then raids on journalists
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jun/22/we-need-to-talk-about-press-freedom-before-its-too-late?CMP=share_btn_tw
This tweet from the ABC’s John Lyons is very, very concerning.
“In summary, the AFP want anything that at any point may have been involved in this story. This is, in my view, a chilling development for the Australian public. This is not just about the media, this is about the public’s right to know.”
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 1:24 pm
briefly @ #191 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 1:14 pm
jc says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 12:36 pm
Briefly has completely and utterly lost the plot.
The G’s think of themselves as left-ish. This is false. They campaign to disable Labor at all times. They are riding shot-gun for the LNP.
Totally correct.
I wouldn’t describe the Greens party as either left or right.
Nah. That’s all of a piece with the drivel you post. The G’s are a faux voice. They exist only to serve the interests of their operators. They seek to wedge Labor. They run interference for the LNP.
The ABC raids are the 2nd ‘unconnected’ raid, but the 3rd bit of ‘unconnected’ journalism targeted by home affairs, what with Ben Fordham reporting being pursued over his boats story.
“briefly says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 11:27 am
The calls for a more combative approach from Labor are all well and good. They overlook the response of voters to political fighting – they hate it. Labor tried to run more polite politics, to no avail.”
Do they though? They say they hate it, but they (we!) never actually act like we do. We pretty much always support the negative side.
I think one lesson is to stop listening to what people say, react to what they do.
AFP raids…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-federal-police-raid-abc-headquarters-at-sydney-s-ultimo-20190605-p51uof.html
Blobbit says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 1:37 pm
“briefly says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 11:27 am
The calls for a more combative approach from Labor are all well and good. They overlook the response of voters to political fighting – they hate it. Labor tried to run more polite politics, to no avail.”
Do they though? They say they hate it, but they (we!) never actually act like we do. We pretty much always support the negative side.
I think one lesson is to stop listening to what people say, react to what they do.
If you go and meet voters and ask them what they think about politics, the most common statements are:
– they do not think about politics at all
– they really dislike the fighting
– they think politicians are ‘all the same’
I’d advise Bernard Keane to be wearing his most presentable pyjamas tonight.
Gee, I wonder if it’s a coincidence these raids are happening now, after the election.
Be good if a journo could probe that
Of course, the raids on News Corp & Aunty were carefully staged to take place after the election. Can’t have Rupert or the ABC being critical of the Tories during a campaign. Thank doG that we have an independent judiciary in this country, where these raids can be appraised for their appropriateness.
I have no care because Australia voted with their wallet.
If this was Labor they be crazy.
“If you go and meet voters and ask them what they think about politics, the most common statements are:
– they do not think about politics at all
– they really dislike the fighting
– they think politicians are ‘all the same’”
Indeed. So I’m suggesting go talk to them, but for the love of God, don’t listen to them (us).
We say we like eating healthy, but we keep buying packets of chips.
briefly
Hurrah ! Something we agree on . A big +1 to all three of your points .
The G’s run the same/same meme all the time. So do ON. This is of course a complete lie. But it suits them to repeat the lie as often as possible.
The Libs know that voters dislike the fighting. This is one of the reasons they do it. The fighting discourages voters from paying too much attention, and it reduces the antagonists to the same level. Discussion is lost in the spectacle of the fight. This suits the LNP. It also suits the Gs, who employ fight-games against Labor all the time.
It is very, very difficult to run a policy based/issues based/dialogue based discourse. In the end, politics has become trolling. It’s no wonder voters tune out.
Mudrakes trolls, the ABC and most of the other MSM have been running defense for this government for the last six years. Fek the lot of em, you wanted it and you’ve got it so suck it up. Once again fek the lot of them.
We’re constantly being trolled, most particularly by the Gs. They are trolling-experts.
briefly @ #209 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 1:35 pm
Labor wedge themselves. The Greens just point it out
Who cares?
The country’s f#cked anyway.
Hey Rex, gee Bob Brown’s Adani Caravan of Inconsequence was a great political strategy in assisting keeping the Tories in office.
“The raids are just Adolph Kipfler’s was of celebrating retaining his seat after it looked like it would be all over. Just think of what we could look forward to celebration wise if he managed to get his arse on Scrott’s big chair.”….
He will get that chair if ScuMo doesn’t deliver what the Queenslanders in the caucus demand. They don’t care about the “revolving door” anymore, as they have just demonstrated that the revolving door is no obstacle for the Coalition to win govern.
Australian Gothic.
Come on down Ita!
Lynchpin @ #228 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 1:52 pm
Queenslanders turned on Labor, not the Greens.
We need a Bill of Rights.
Labor voted for the powers Dutton as Minister responsible is using against the media today.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 2:01 pm
Really!
You know this, how?
Barney
John Lyon’s twitter feed
SNIP
Shellbell @ #166 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 12:36 pm
This seems to describe Pell’s appeal as well. His case seems to be predicated on telling the judges all of the same things that would have been raised during the trial.
It looks like the war crimes in Afghanistan were much worse and much more pervasive than anyone (except the Afghani victims) has ever been told.
One test for opacity would be to itemize the number and amount of ‘restitution’ payouts made by the ADF over the course of the Afghanistan War.
It is just as well the Greens are holding the Liberals and the Nationals to account, eh?
guytaur says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 2:07 pm
I haven’t seen anything in them to suggest so and the Lenore Taylor tweet posted earlier says that they are being conducted under the old law that was in effect at the time of publication.
Lenore Taylor says these raids based on old laws…
Covered by someone else.
Hmmm
Kate McClymont
@Kate_McClymont
·
23m
Two years between a referral from the Chief of Defence and the execution of a search warrant #AFPraids? Make no mistake, what they are after is the identity of the whistleblower.
AFP statement on search warrant in Sydney
The Australian Federal Police (AFP) has executed a search warrant on the Ultimo premises of the ABC today (Wednesday, 5 June 2019) in relation to allegations of publishing classified material,…
ALP:
Peter Dutton must explain what he knew about these two raids – one on a journalist’s home and one on the ABC.
Freedom of the press is an essential component of our democracy.
She should know better than that. This would only occur if it was Labor in govt
Lenore Taylor
@lenoretaylor
·
14m
The govt cannot pretend these raids have nothing to do with them. Perhaps the media could ask no other questions at press conferences or interviews until they answer these ones #AFPraids
Peter Murphy
@PeterWMurphy1
·
46m
Given today’s events, this excellent Australian Govt parody ad by
@thejuicemedia
is worth watching again. #AfghanFiles #AFPraids #ABCraids #journalism #censorship #auspol
Honest Government Ad | My Police State!
The Australien Government has made an ad about the Police State it’s creating, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative. Ways you can support us to kee…
youtube.com
@Vic
It’s only illegal because national security laws.
That suggestion seems to pop up every once in awhile. It never gets anywhere.
The libs could turn us into a full blown fascist dictatorship, and briefly will still be raving on about the greens.
During the election campaign Di Natale was boasting about how he was going to hold Labor to account having failed dismally at doing same during six years of Coalition government.
Now let’s see how good Di Natale is at holding his favourite political mates to account for hiding war crimes behind ‘national security’, ‘security’ and ‘classified’ material.
DO.NOT.HOLD.YOUR.BREATH.