Of swings and misses: episode three

From my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday:

In the wake of its most unambiguous failure at a federal election since at least 1980, Australia’s polling industry is licking its wounds.

The Nine/Fairfax papers have announced the Ipsos poll series will be put on ice, and those pollsters who do return to the field shortly will face catcalls whether they persist in recording a Labor lead we now know doesn’t exist, or only now start detecting a Coalition lead that eluded them through the entirety of the past parliamentary term.

Despite it all though, the pollsters’ performance hasn’t been without its defenders.

Spoiler alert: the latter refers to David Briggs and Nate Silver. But Peter Brent can now be added to the list, up to a point, following a review of the issues raised by the polling failure in Inside Story. Specifically, Brent observes that the primary vote miss was less severe than the two-party preferred; that the difference arose from a stronger-than-anticipated flow of minor party and independent preferences to the Coalition; that herding was less apparent on the primary vote (most markedly in the case of Ipsos’s reading of the balance of support between Labor and the Greens); and that the result was, if nothing else, no worse than the Victorian state election.

Another point noted is the strange consistency with which polls have pointed to extravagant gains for Labor in Queensland before and during election campaigns, only for them to fall away at the end. On this occasion, the falling away as recorded by pollsters wasn’t remotely on the scale needed to predict the result, with statewide polling published towards the end of the campaign landing at least 7% shy of what looks like being the Coalition two-party vote in the state.

The question of geographic variability in the pollster failure seemed worth exploring, so I have put together a table of state and electorate level polling published in the last fortnight or so of the campaign, available below the fold at the bottom of the post. Almost all of this polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, whether under its own name or as Newspoll. The only exception was a set of state-level two-party preferred totals from Ipsos, published at the tail end of the campaign by the Age-Herald (which performed rather poorly).

Below all this is a list of “average bias” figures, consisting of straight averages of the observed errors, be they positive or negative, rather than the absolute errors. This means combinations of positive and negative results will have the fact of cancelling out — although there were actually very few of those, as the errors tended to be consistently in the one direction. The national and state-level two-party results are estimates provided to me by Nine’s election systems consultant David Quin. With no Coalition-versus-Labor figures available from 15 electorates, this inevitably involves a fair bit of guess work.

A few points should be observed. Given that poll trends pointed to a clear long-term trend to the Coalition, pollsters may be excused a certain amount of Labor bias when evaluating polling that was in many cases conducted over a week before the election. This is particularly true of the Newspoll state aggregates, which cover the full length of the campaign.

Another issue with the Newspoll state aggregates is that One Nation was a response option for all respondents in the early part of the campaign, despite their contesting only 59 out of 151 seats. Their vote here accordingly comes in too high, and as Peter Brent notes, at least part of their failure could be explained by stranded One Nation supporters breaking in unexpectedly large quantities to the Coalition, rather than other minor party targets of opportunity like Clive Palmer.

In seat polling though, where the issue did not arise, the polls were remarkable in having understated support for One Nation, and overstated it for the United Australia Party. This was one face of a two-sided polling failure in Queensland, of which the other was a serious imbalance towards Labor in support recorded for the major parties. While Queensland has caught most of the attention on this score, the polls were just as far out in measuring the primary votes of the major parties in Western Australia. Things were less bad in Victoria, but Coalition support was still significantly underestimated.

The only bright spots in the picture are New South Wales and South Australia, where Newspoll just about nailed the Coalition, Labor and Greens primary votes, and got the big things right in four seat polls. While Labor’s strength was overstated in Macquarie, it does now appear Labor will pull through there – for more on that front, stay tuned to the late counting thread.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,256 comments on “Of swings and misses: episode three”

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  1. nath @ #1046 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    Abetz praise for de Bruyn is really praise for the way in which the SDA has ripped off workers for years. Abetz and other libs appreciate their business model. ie. keeping corporations profitable above all else.

    Lol. This is a dry gully and you should stop trying to row up it now. Unless you wish to factor in to your argument the real agents that have mastered ripping off workers. The Employers et al on their team.

    To concentrate your puny attack on one essentially powerless union leader, who is now only in the cosmetic role of President of the SDA, as opposed to the position of power, the Secretary, is to be mischievous in the extreme.

    So much evidence that the guy has no leverage over the Labor Party. All of which you ignore simply to aid your pathetic attempted smear of Labor.

    No wonder no one takes you seriously, nath.

  2. C@tmomma:

    Yep. Gaslighting, pure and simple.

    Quite right.

    In fact Mr Albenese would be wise to insist that Mr. Shorten take on a cabinet role, and it would seem that he is. As I understand it, Mr. Shorten has a relatively minor disability (a speech impediment) which he has successfully overcome (albeit at the cost of offending nath in the process); this makes him well suited to the NDIS role.

  3. Andrew Laird@ReclaimAnglesea
    8h8 hours ago

    Coalition’s reef advocate backs massive tree-clearing plan

    (Calling it “tree clearing” is misleading. It’s actually the wiping out of an ecosystem (including its animals & plants), the loss of a carbon store & the creation of more erosion #auspol #qldpol)

  4. C@t

    Well, there’s no need to mimic the Coalition’s spitefulness. That’s just dragging the rest of us down.

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 3:39 pm

    nath @ #1046 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    Abetz praise for de Bruyn is really praise for the way in which the SDA has ripped off workers for years. Abetz and other libs appreciate their business model. ie. keeping corporations profitable above all else.

    Lol. This is a dry gully and you should stop trying to row up it now. Unless you wish to factor in to your argument the real agents that have mastered ripping off workers. The Employers et al on their team.
    ____________________________
    Yep, the employers have ripped off workers with the aid and support of the SDA, which then uses the numbers of exploited workers and the cash given to them by the employers, to get Catholics elected into Parliament, driving their socially conservative agenda.

  6. Re: Catherine King in Ballarat. OH and myself live in her electorate and are members of a local branch. She is and is widely perceived to be an excellent local member. Campaigning with her is very educational I can tell you that for free. Very responsive to people’s issues whether they be federal, state or local and also has a very well organised and hard working office.. Our branch have also run community events that enable people to give voice to their concerns and those are fed back to representatives and the party.
    I would venture to speculate Catherine would relish infrastructure. Met Albo with CK on the train from Bacchus Marsh to Ballarat for a lunch a while ago and she was well across infrastructure in these parts and active with local groups working on same.

  7. nath @ #1054 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 3:47 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 3:39 pm

    nath @ #1046 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    Abetz praise for de Bruyn is really praise for the way in which the SDA has ripped off workers for years. Abetz and other libs appreciate their business model. ie. keeping corporations profitable above all else.

    Lol. This is a dry gully and you should stop trying to row up it now. Unless you wish to factor in to your argument the real agents that have mastered ripping off workers. The Employers et al on their team.
    ____________________________
    Yep, the employers have ripped off workers with the aid and support of the SDA, which then uses the numbers of exploited workers and the cash given to them by the employers, to get Catholics elected into Parliament, driving their socially conservative agenda.

    No.

  8. In actual fact, the SDA were one of the only unions to win improved pay and conditions for their members over the last 6 years. When all around them were losing theirs big time.

  9. Are you a religious bigot, nath? It certainly seems like you have it in for Catholics and all they stand for.

  10. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 3:49 pm

    In actual fact, the SDA were one of the only unions to win improved pay and conditions for their members over the last 6 years. When all around them were losing theirs big time.
    ________________
    If you think being forced to pay their workers legal wages instead of the illegal SDA agreements that rorted workers for a decade then your welcome to praise the SDA till the end of time.

  11. C@t

    On the other hand, Nice Guys finish last. As Labor has just found out. I think attacks need to be judicious, targeted and based on fact.

    Yup. But sometimes it’s hard to hit the target when you are dealing with slippery, shape-shifting eels.

  12. I like Clare O’Neill* in “Innovation, Technology and the Future of Work”.

    This is where the action will be commercially – in new energy technology, AI and a few other things.

    Interestingly, for the first time since 1850-80 (the period that built the modern world) the interests of labour and capital (i.e. technology) are coming into alignment, with a (renewed from 1880) common cause against the long-dominant rentiers.

    Briefly may differ, of course, but hopefully he will do so only briefly.

    *I could stop there, too (ho ho)

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 3:51 pm

    Are you a religious bigot, nath? It certainly seems like you have it in for Catholics and all they stand for.
    _________________
    On the contrary, I find it strangely sectarian that a union representing tens of thousands of members only ever manages to have Catholic officers that then get pre-selected in Parliament. Something to ponder.

  14. nath

    Even more amazing was how, quite by chance, the union was controlled by a particular flavour of a particular religion. Who knew so many young shop assistants were fans of ‘Santamaria’ ? 😆

  15. lizzie @ #1060 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 3:52 pm

    C@t

    On the other hand, Nice Guys finish last. As Labor has just found out. I think attacks need to be judicious, targeted and based on fact.

    Yup. But sometimes it’s hard to hit the target when you are dealing with slippery, shape-shifting eels.

    I thought they were Shape Shifting Lizards!?! 😆

  16. EGT

    The current phase of capitalism is absolutely dominated by rentiers and monopolists, a subset of rentier capitalists.

    Their interests are inimical to the interests of workers in general.

    The current mode of production has also largely disbanded mass scale employment, meaning the social basis of the labour force has also been re-written.

    Mass employment and unionisation have disappeared in most places. Diffusion of worker power is almost universal, whereas concentration of capital is proceeding at a rapid pace.

    We are all thoroughly fucked.

  17. nath @ #1062 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 3:54 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 3:51 pm

    Are you a religious bigot, nath? It certainly seems like you have it in for Catholics and all they stand for.
    _________________
    On the contrary, I find it strangely sectarian that a union representing tens of thousands of members only ever manages to have Catholic officers that then get pre-selected in Parliament. Something to ponder.

    Yep, so powerful is their sub faction of the Labor Right, that one of their senior members, Senator Deborah O’Neill, just got demoted by Albo and replaced by a secular Lower House MP, Emma McBride. Not even the supposedly powerful Don Farrell could save her!

    But you keep on peddling your falsehoods from Macedonia, nath. 🙂

  18. The Australian @australian

    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton says there is “no one less qualified” to hold the shadow portfolio than Kristina Keneally, citing the Labor senator’s record on border protection

    There is no one less qualified than Peter Dutton to have anything to do with the humane treatment of refugees or the fair treatment of migrants.

  19. Kon Karapanagiotidis@Kon__K
    1h1 hour ago

    My Uber driver just now was a person seeking asylum. Tells me how he hasn’t seen his family in 8 years. How he arrived in Australia in 2013 and still waiting to be interviewed about his refugee claims once. What can one say but “don’t lose hope”. My how shameful my country is.

  20. Gil McLaughlin just said, from Shanghai, that he’s at the AFL match with the new Minister for Sport who is Tasmanian and there is a push for a Tassie team which would be great.

  21. Yep, so powerful is their sub faction of the Labor Right, that one of their senior members, Senator Deborah O’Neill, just got demoted by Albo and replaced by a secular Lower House MP, Emma McBride. Not even the supposedly powerful Don Farrell could save her!

    But you keep on peddling your falsehoods from Macedonia, nath.
    __________________________________
    How powerful they are is irrelevant to my arguments, but by all means, keep plugging away supporting a rotten union and their operatives. Clearly the SDA is less powerful under ALbo than they were under Shorten, who was always a collaborator with them, and even emulated their business model by short changing workers at the expense of companies and the union at the AWU.

  22. A point that seems so far to have been unremarked is that both of the shadow “environment” portfolios are now held by “the left” – the two Butlers. Also that Terri Butler’s previous portfolio involved, inter alia, youth affairs.

    Seems to be both a commitment to a more aggressive line on the environment and a recognition that young people are responsive to it.

    In general there are quite a lot of subtle shifts in the shadow ministry which give a bit of a clue to Albos intent.

    I think Duttons immediate attempt to put down Keneally is an indication he sees danger in an attack on him that he won’t be able to deflect by front on bullying.

  23. I see the placement of KK up against Dutton as a seismic shift in Labor narrative going forward.

    Under Shorten, Shayne Neumann was mute. KK will be the polar opposite and it seems Labor has finally turned to face up the cruelty of Dutton.

  24. I hadn’t noticed Dobell before but I see it is now on a margin of 1.5%,

    This is surprising as I thought much of anti-Labor’s support was related to Craig Thomson and McBride had swung it back. United Australia on 5.5% shows the influence of Palmer’s campaign in seats that are socio-economically disadvantaged

  25. ajm @ #1127 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 4:37 pm

    A point that seems so far to have been unremarked is that bothers the shadow “environment” portfolios are now held by “the left” – the two Butlers. Also that Terri Butler’s previous portfolio involved, inter alia, youth affairs.

    Seems to be both a commitment to a more aggressive line on the environment and a recognition that young people are responsive to it.

    In general there are quite a lot of subtle shifts in the shadow ministry which give a bit of a clue to Albos intent.

    I think Duttons immediate attempt to put down Keneally is an indication he sees danger in an attack on him that he won’t be able to deflect by front on bullying.

    Yes, the signs are good that Labor has found their backbone in a few policy areas.

    I’d like to see Rowland let loose re fraudband but not holding my breath.

  26. nath @ #1076 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 4:28 pm

    Yep, so powerful is their sub faction of the Labor Right, that one of their senior members, Senator Deborah O’Neill, just got demoted by Albo and replaced by a secular Lower House MP, Emma McBride. Not even the supposedly powerful Don Farrell could save her!

    But you keep on peddling your falsehoods from Macedonia, nath.
    __________________________________
    How powerful they are is irrelevant to my arguments, but by all means, keep plugging away supporting a rotten union and their operatives. Clearly the SDA is less powerful under ALbo than they were under Shorten, who was always a collaborator with them, and even emulated their business model by short changing workers at the expense of companies and the union at the AWU.

    Yep and you keep ploughing your trivial furrow, nath. At least it keeps you away from more important matters. 🙂

  27. I’d like to see Rowland let loose re fraudband but not holding my breath.

    Hopefully that will now be Tim Watts job.

  28. Oakeshott Country @ #1079 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 4:39 pm

    I hadn’t noticed Dobell before but I see it is now on a margin of 1.5%,

    This is surprising as I thought much of anti-Labor’s support was related to Craig Thomson and McBride had swung it back. United Australia on 5.5% shows the influence of Palmer’s campaign in seats that are socio-economically disadvantaged

    Most of Palmer’s operatives in Robertson came from Dobell.

  29. Also, a lot of the Hunter area mining workers live in the valleys SE of the Hunter and in other suburbs of Dobell. Not to mention the site of the new coal mine at Wallarah is in the electorate.

  30. Also, a lot of the Hunter area mining workers live in the valleys SE of the Hunter

    Wont the opening up of the Galilee Basin be bad for Hunter Coal?

  31. Simon² Katich® @ #1086 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    Also, a lot of the Hunter area mining workers live in the valleys SE of the Hunter

    Wont the opening up of the Galilee Basin be bad for Hunter Coal?

    That isn’t a question which will vex Queensland Coal Miners. Nevertheless, Labor should find a way to point this out without being too overt about it. It’s a tightrope that Labor must walk.

    Or they could just ignore the fact like the Coalition does.

    Anyway, the mine approved at Wallarah is owned by KoRes and it’s output will be going to fuel South Korean needs. So the jobs WILL be there for that, if not other Hunter coal mines.

  32. There are a few PBers who may have good knowledge of some of Albo’s ministry. I mean more knowledge than one would get from seeing them on a train, or as a crowd member at some event…….. for example attend branch meetings with them, or work closely with them on campaigns.

    Other than those (few?) PBers, how in hell can so many here offer so many character and competency assessments of who Albo has selected. What bullshit is being written here on this matter today.

    Fair enough, if you are making a concrete criticism, such as “When he’s interviewed he always looks gruff”.

    But today, so many PBers have taken it upon themselves to character assassinate and talent assassinate virtually all of Albo’s placements.

    FFS give them a go.

    And as for this “Shorten must retire” crap, did not Bob Hawke win a handful of elections against different LOTOs!!!!! And weren’t there some midstream dumping of LOTOS!!!!! I didn’t see Peacock, Downer, Howard (Mk 1), or Hewson (after 2993 defeat) immediately leaving the parliament.

    I think the words of the great FPMJG to the MSM is relevant to some on PB……… stop writing crap.

  33. Another 6 years (at least) in opposition for the ALP with factional hacks getting shadow ministry positions.

    Most of them would have not got a gig from 1983-96 – definitely B and C graders.

  34. briefly @ #967 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 11:30 am

    I’m not a ‘pessimist’. I’m reflecting on the reality. Labor have won just one election in 23 years. We have lost three in a row, mainly on the tensions between the labour market and the environment. The Right is ascendant and increasingly powerful. The opposition to the Right is weak, divided, self-cannibalising and self-defeating. The tensions in the material world that drive this division are getting worse, not better.

    We are fucked. Get used to it.

    An excellent real world analysis as usual.
    Just returned from an excellent lunch celebrating 40 years of bliss with Mrs Mundo.

    Chin up Briefly Albanese’s new shadow front bench is even better than the one the voters rejected a fortnight ago so things are looking up. Put me down for 85+ seats minimum and control of the senate. You it makes sense.

  35. Holden Hillbilly @ #1143 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    Another 6 years (at least) for the ALP with factional hacks getting shadow ministry positions.

    Most of them would have not got a gig from 1983-96 – definitely B and C graders.

    Bugger, I take it back. The ministry on offer a fortnight ago was way better than the new one.
    We are definitely forked.

  36. Hunter coal is higher grade than Galilee and a significant proportion is exported for coking. I doubt if Galilee would have significant effect on the Hunter’s markets

  37. ‘I’d like to see Rowland let loose re fraudband but not holding my breath.’

    I’d like to hear something from anyone in Labor on the NBN
    Actually why bother. It’s too late now. Labor lost the passion for it as soon as they lost office.

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