From my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday:
In the wake of its most unambiguous failure at a federal election since at least 1980, Australia’s polling industry is licking its wounds.
The Nine/Fairfax papers have announced the Ipsos poll series will be put on ice, and those pollsters who do return to the field shortly will face catcalls whether they persist in recording a Labor lead we now know doesn’t exist, or only now start detecting a Coalition lead that eluded them through the entirety of the past parliamentary term.
Despite it all though, the pollsters’ performance hasn’t been without its defenders.
Spoiler alert: the latter refers to David Briggs and Nate Silver. But Peter Brent can now be added to the list, up to a point, following a review of the issues raised by the polling failure in Inside Story. Specifically, Brent observes that the primary vote miss was less severe than the two-party preferred; that the difference arose from a stronger-than-anticipated flow of minor party and independent preferences to the Coalition; that herding was less apparent on the primary vote (most markedly in the case of Ipsos’s reading of the balance of support between Labor and the Greens); and that the result was, if nothing else, no worse than the Victorian state election.
Another point noted is the strange consistency with which polls have pointed to extravagant gains for Labor in Queensland before and during election campaigns, only for them to fall away at the end. On this occasion, the falling away as recorded by pollsters wasn’t remotely on the scale needed to predict the result, with statewide polling published towards the end of the campaign landing at least 7% shy of what looks like being the Coalition two-party vote in the state.
The question of geographic variability in the pollster failure seemed worth exploring, so I have put together a table of state and electorate level polling published in the last fortnight or so of the campaign, available below the fold at the bottom of the post. Almost all of this polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, whether under its own name or as Newspoll. The only exception was a set of state-level two-party preferred totals from Ipsos, published at the tail end of the campaign by the Age-Herald (which performed rather poorly).
Below all this is a list of “average bias” figures, consisting of straight averages of the observed errors, be they positive or negative, rather than the absolute errors. This means combinations of positive and negative results will have the fact of cancelling out — although there were actually very few of those, as the errors tended to be consistently in the one direction. The national and state-level two-party results are estimates provided to me by Nine’s election systems consultant David Quin. With no Coalition-versus-Labor figures available from 15 electorates, this inevitably involves a fair bit of guess work.
A few points should be observed. Given that poll trends pointed to a clear long-term trend to the Coalition, pollsters may be excused a certain amount of Labor bias when evaluating polling that was in many cases conducted over a week before the election. This is particularly true of the Newspoll state aggregates, which cover the full length of the campaign.
Another issue with the Newspoll state aggregates is that One Nation was a response option for all respondents in the early part of the campaign, despite their contesting only 59 out of 151 seats. Their vote here accordingly comes in too high, and as Peter Brent notes, at least part of their failure could be explained by stranded One Nation supporters breaking in unexpectedly large quantities to the Coalition, rather than other minor party targets of opportunity like Clive Palmer.
In seat polling though, where the issue did not arise, the polls were remarkable in having understated support for One Nation, and overstated it for the United Australia Party. This was one face of a two-sided polling failure in Queensland, of which the other was a serious imbalance towards Labor in support recorded for the major parties. While Queensland has caught most of the attention on this score, the polls were just as far out in measuring the primary votes of the major parties in Western Australia. Things were less bad in Victoria, but Coalition support was still significantly underestimated.
The only bright spots in the picture are New South Wales and South Australia, where Newspoll just about nailed the Coalition, Labor and Greens primary votes, and got the big things right in four seat polls. While Labor’s strength was overstated in Macquarie, it does now appear Labor will pull through there – for more on that front, stay tuned to the late counting thread.
Confessions @ #48 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 8:40 am
Clearly both took Mundo’s pre-poll advice and are taking a sabatical from politics for a while.
Mundo on the other hand has bounced back unexpectedly feeling slightly less moribund than Mundo expected to feel.
Probably cracking the shiites with Labor’s dumbarse campaign has kept Mundo busy.
It is obvious to me the one constant in the polls was the preferred Prime Minister. It never shifted and showed that Shorten was unelectable.
On Election day, when a shove became a push, the Electors could not bring themselves to Shorten and so voted to ensure that he would not be the man even if their heart said Labor. Such was the dislike for the man.
Zoomster
Thanks. I know. I trust my sources, and they haven’t failed me yet
Victoria:
What was the big story?
Fess
I’d rather not go into the details of it. Save to say that it related to Shorten. The journos following up on story got his right of reply.
And they decided not to go ahead with it.
Shorten has reportedly told key allies that he one day intends on returning to the leadership:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/pathetic-bill-shortens-excuse-for-election-loss-slammed/news-story/4f9b1e6644589ec0a05c8713e73458d7
Vic:
Actually I think I know what you’re referring to now.
Meat is coming for the US and it is not happy:
https://truthout.org/articles/after-years-of-abuse-the-earth-has-sent-its-bill-collectors/
and this:
“Even the staid Bank of England recently warned of a “sudden and severe” loss of up to $20 trillion if and when “stranded assets” like “unburnable carbon” become worthless during the peak of the climate crisis. ”
I assume it is only a matter of time before this arrives in Australia, or some local mite creates a similar problem.
The story actually broke (the individual went public), but due to the reaction to the Shorten mum business, no media would touch it.
nath, you’re not going to take Mr Shorten’s pledge of support at face value? 😉
Morning all.
Apparently FFX is trying to stir leadershit already. Sigh. They never learn. I suppose they’ll have a great big story on the first opinion poll full of rubbish interpretations.
Shorten appears to be a pragmatist. He knows that if he could not attain govt after 2 tilts he is best off working as an underling and letting another have a go.
zoomster @ #58 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:07 am
That stuff via Michael Smith ‘news’?
I might just join the rest of Australia and say, who freaking cares what so-called experts have to say? My opinion is as good as theirs!
The problem of tax concessions aimed at the top end of income earners, is estimated to cost $135 billion a year.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-26/tax-concessions-put-welfare-costs-in-perspective-anglicare/9585930?fbclid=IwAR0Qt_t7SY0CzaQzS4XioFXyIQpCfn5BbUpCkVa6xNT8v7yxS2_i2t-vtM4&pfmredir=sm
ltep
says:
Friday, May 31, 2019 at 9:08 am
nath, you’re not going to take Mr Shorten’s pledge of support at face value?
______________________________________
Indeed. At the party room meeting he could have transitioned quietly, let Albo have clean air, instead he made it about himself, or rather, how he had been shafted by the media and Palmer.
Shortens presence is still clearly going to be a drag on Labors vote.
When will they learn ?
Rex Douglas
says:
Friday, May 31, 2019 at 9:13 am
Shortens presence is still clearly going to be a drag on Labors vote.
When will they learn ?
_____________________
Shorten and allies outside of Parliament still controls the numbers in many seats occupied by members of the Victorian Right. They would actually like to be shot of him now but are scared of retribution via preselection.
Mundo;
Im not interested in trying to tear people down.
nath
That’s unreasonable. Someone stepping down from any position is expected to give a speech, and in this situation – a gathering of the party room after a campaign, where people needed to be thanked for their efforts by the person they made the effort for – in particular.
Shorten wont return to the leadership as the party want to win an election eventually.
The naysayers here and in the media can say what they like. Shorten will not go to another election as leader next time around.
I do hope rumours that Shorten still harbours leadership ambitions are a beat-up. And, I really think that to give Albanese some clean air, he (Shorten) should do a spell on the back bench, if not leave the parliament. He gave it his best shot but unfortunately didn’t get up. There would be many opportunities in the private sector for Bill.
zoomster
says:
Friday, May 31, 2019 at 9:17 am
nath
That’s unreasonable. Someone stepping down from any position is expected to give a speech, and in this situation – a gathering of the party room after a campaign, where people needed to be thanked for their efforts by the person they made the effort for – in particular.
_____________________________
If there had of been no cameras his whinge might have been fair enough. No one would have any problem with thanking people, but he chose a giant dummy spit that captured national media attention and therefore distracting from Albo’s new start.
If the party wants to win, why did the right faction select Shorten as one of its front bench positions?
Tony Windsor
@TonyHWindsor
.
@billshortenmp
spoke of the need for a form of Disability insurance not long after entering parliament . He and Jenny Macklin deserve great credit for the NDIS being delivered . He would be ideal as shadow Minister .
nath
Capturing media attention is not the same as the general population who actually dont care terribly much at all
nath @ #66 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:16 am
It’s a mess, it really is.
There needs to be a revolution by grassroots Labor rank and file to re-structure the party away from union factional hacks having so much power.
Labor are dying before our very eyes.
nath @ #72 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:21 am
nath, they ALWAYS have cameras present. The media get in a snit if you don’t let them in.
Yup….Labor need nearly 53% of the 2PPV to win next time. The Greens will be working hard to make sure they don’t get it.
The Lib-kin will work day and night to sully Labor. They will do it here. They will do it everywhere.
Mavis Davis @ #71 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:20 am
It goes beyond Shorten doing the right thing and walking away.
It goes to union hacks controlling the factions and thus the party. It’s a killer disease that’s slowly wearing down the ALP.
Rex Douglas @ #76 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:22 am
Well, you’re not helping. But maybe that’s been your point all along. You don’t want to.
@Rex Douglas
One of my predictions if the electorate gets very polarized and radicalized on the climate change and Labor is seen as being on the fence on the issue, then it’s support is going to be cannibalized by the Greens. In Britain both the Conservatives and Labour are having their supported cannibalized by the Liberal Democrats, Brexit and Green parties for being seen on the fence concerning the issue of Brexit.
Yep, those ‘Union hacks’ wanting to do good things for the Working Poor, eh? Except for the CFMMEU, who are just plain greedy like the Liberals and the LNP who they support.
You gotta laugh at those here who oppose Shorten but proclaim some kind of ‘insider knowledge’ when in fact, they know as much, or as little, as the rest of us.
Sorry guys – piss and wind.
Rex
Although I agree there should be more grassroots involvement, this would move the party towards the left. There aren’t many votes for Labor on the left that they’re not already getting, either directly or as preferences. There certainly aren’t enough votes there to win government.
Labor will move further right, because that’s where the votes are.
It goes to union hacks controlling the factions and thus the party. It’s a killer disease that’s slowly wearing down the ALP.
_____________________________
Even worse than that is the ethnic warlords that can organise branches that control preselection at the seat level both at state and federal level. Particularly in Victoria, and NSW. Maybe less of an issue in other states probably.
C@tmomma @ #81 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:27 am
I think I am helping by acknowledging the obvious.
jen
I actually have more insider knowledge than any other poster here atm, but alas, I can’t do more than hint.
For sale
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All sizes available and all in the highly desirable shade of desert brown.
Excellent quality – steel toecap. Priced for immediate sale 💵.
Much prized in latest wellness activity – kicking Bill Shorten (whoever he is).
Contact K.J. and P.C. Dodgy for sales. 😎
I continue to not feel so defeated due to a state Victorian Labor govt being in power until 2022.
They are getting on with infrastructure projects, investing in health and education, policing etc.
nath
Your understanding of Victorian Labor is incredibly outdated. The reason Vic Labor is stronger than NSW Labor is that it has largely dealt with these issues.
zoomster
says:
Friday, May 31, 2019 at 9:30 am
jen
I actually have more insider knowledge than any other poster here atm, but alas, I can’t do more than hint.
_____________________
cmon zoomster, you didn’t even know that George Seitz and his Macedonian branches were the key to Shorten getting the Maribyrnong preselection.
Rex Douglas @ #76 Friday, May 31st, 2019 – 9:22 am
Heard someone on ABC News Radio this morning telling me about the ‘long time rivalry between Shorten and Albanese’……it’ll never stop…..maybe Chloe could find Bill a nice gig at the top end of town…..
Tristo,
No party of government put more policy out there, from the Left, than Labor did at the last election. Look where it got them. The guy who smugly brandished a lump of coal in parliament won! Your hopes and dreams will just be shattered again if Labor goes further left on Climate Change.
Also, your example wrt to the European Parliament is spurious. Just check how many seats The Greens hold in the Westminster parliament to see why.
zoomster
says:
Friday, May 31, 2019 at 9:32 am
nath
Your understanding of Victorian Labor is incredibly outdated. The reason Vic Labor is stronger than NSW Labor is that it has largely dealt with these issues.
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LOL!!!!!
Jason Wood is the Minister for Multicultural Affairs?! He’s a mini me Dutton!
Victoria
Glad you enjoyed it.
@C@tmomma
Actually the Coalition being seen as against action on Climate change and pro-Coal won them more votes than they lost. Look at the strong preference flows to them from One Nation and the United Australia Party and the 11% swing George Christensen got in Dawson.
It is obvious plenty of people don’t care at the least about Climate change and doubt it exists. They are the Australian equivalent of Brexiters, who want Brexit whatever the price.
To be honest I’m no fan of Shorten, but also to be fair he is no fool. He would know after the debacle of 2010-13, where he was seen to be instrumental in bringing down two Labor prime ministers – and he then lost the members’ leadership vote decisively – that if he does want to have another shot, it can only be after he does nothing seen to be disruptive to Albanese. That is, Albo has to fail on his own; the moment that Shorten could be tied to any disruptive behaviour would almost certainly sink his future chances with both ALP members and with the general public.
The main problem – as I see it – for Shorten remaining is that his relative unpopularity & past history is a constant reminder of potential Labor internal disruption, waiting to be fully exported by Labor’s opponents.