From my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday:
In the wake of its most unambiguous failure at a federal election since at least 1980, Australia’s polling industry is licking its wounds.
The Nine/Fairfax papers have announced the Ipsos poll series will be put on ice, and those pollsters who do return to the field shortly will face catcalls whether they persist in recording a Labor lead we now know doesn’t exist, or only now start detecting a Coalition lead that eluded them through the entirety of the past parliamentary term.
Despite it all though, the pollsters’ performance hasn’t been without its defenders.
Spoiler alert: the latter refers to David Briggs and Nate Silver. But Peter Brent can now be added to the list, up to a point, following a review of the issues raised by the polling failure in Inside Story. Specifically, Brent observes that the primary vote miss was less severe than the two-party preferred; that the difference arose from a stronger-than-anticipated flow of minor party and independent preferences to the Coalition; that herding was less apparent on the primary vote (most markedly in the case of Ipsos’s reading of the balance of support between Labor and the Greens); and that the result was, if nothing else, no worse than the Victorian state election.
Another point noted is the strange consistency with which polls have pointed to extravagant gains for Labor in Queensland before and during election campaigns, only for them to fall away at the end. On this occasion, the falling away as recorded by pollsters wasn’t remotely on the scale needed to predict the result, with statewide polling published towards the end of the campaign landing at least 7% shy of what looks like being the Coalition two-party vote in the state.
The question of geographic variability in the pollster failure seemed worth exploring, so I have put together a table of state and electorate level polling published in the last fortnight or so of the campaign, available below the fold at the bottom of the post. Almost all of this polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, whether under its own name or as Newspoll. The only exception was a set of state-level two-party preferred totals from Ipsos, published at the tail end of the campaign by the Age-Herald (which performed rather poorly).
Below all this is a list of “average bias” figures, consisting of straight averages of the observed errors, be they positive or negative, rather than the absolute errors. This means combinations of positive and negative results will have the fact of cancelling out — although there were actually very few of those, as the errors tended to be consistently in the one direction. The national and state-level two-party results are estimates provided to me by Nine’s election systems consultant David Quin. With no Coalition-versus-Labor figures available from 15 electorates, this inevitably involves a fair bit of guess work.
A few points should be observed. Given that poll trends pointed to a clear long-term trend to the Coalition, pollsters may be excused a certain amount of Labor bias when evaluating polling that was in many cases conducted over a week before the election. This is particularly true of the Newspoll state aggregates, which cover the full length of the campaign.
Another issue with the Newspoll state aggregates is that One Nation was a response option for all respondents in the early part of the campaign, despite their contesting only 59 out of 151 seats. Their vote here accordingly comes in too high, and as Peter Brent notes, at least part of their failure could be explained by stranded One Nation supporters breaking in unexpectedly large quantities to the Coalition, rather than other minor party targets of opportunity like Clive Palmer.
In seat polling though, where the issue did not arise, the polls were remarkable in having understated support for One Nation, and overstated it for the United Australia Party. This was one face of a two-sided polling failure in Queensland, of which the other was a serious imbalance towards Labor in support recorded for the major parties. While Queensland has caught most of the attention on this score, the polls were just as far out in measuring the primary votes of the major parties in Western Australia. Things were less bad in Victoria, but Coalition support was still significantly underestimated.
The only bright spots in the picture are New South Wales and South Australia, where Newspoll just about nailed the Coalition, Labor and Greens primary votes, and got the big things right in four seat polls. While Labor’s strength was overstated in Macquarie, it does now appear Labor will pull through there – for more on that front, stay tuned to the late counting thread.
Tristo says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 9:13 am
@briefly
Labor needs to develop a policy on combating climate change that meets half way between the Green and Liberal-National positions. One that needs to be framed about economic growth and jobs. Since there are high levels of unemployment in the coal mining and timber regions.
So typical of a Green to tell Labor what they should do. Go fuck your self.
The Greens will attack Labor for not being sufficiently Green. The Liberals will attack Labor for being too Green.
I thought nature was campaigning against the Liberals. I was wrong. Nature is campaigning against Labor. We are thoroughly fucked.
Cassidy getting frustrated with Motormouth Cormann who says a lot without saying anything at all.
_____
Which is exactly what Cormann says every time he is on!
SK
Thanks, but that lumps ‘stationary energy’ together (so energy use by households is included with energy use by industry). I’m trying to separate them out a bit.
….having outsourced my research, I’m now getting picky. Sorry about that, I’m an ungrateful prat.
Jim Molan feels entitled to replacing Sinodinos in the Senate. Of course he does!
An approach where Labor leaves the environmental policy to the Greens and doesn’t contest Greens seats is a sensible way forward.
It will happen regardless – its just a matter of time until Labor realises the inevitable.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 9:15 am
I agree Rex, it seems Labor is likely to become more Adani than Adani. Its always a problem when you have no principles, you vacillate between what seems more popular at any given time.
Tragic!
The Bob Brown Railway from the Pacific to the Galilee will be built with Federal money. Count on it. The Greens have helped put the Liberals into office in three consecutive Federal elections. This will continue. The Greens will keep Labor out of power forever if they have the chance.
“Labor’s untidy week”…
They lost an election and a leader in a shock result.
THAT’S untidy. That’s ALWAYS gunna be untidy.
We’re just totally fucked now.
@briefly
I am a Greens voter, not a supporter and critical of the supporters. Only in Australia I can be seen as a Left-Winger, in Europe I would be considered a Centrist.
Like the NEG?
The ALP environment (and climate) policy wasnt the problem. Although they didnt handle Adani well. Perhaps because they were fooled by the polls and thought it was more important to save some inner city seats from the greens than QLD seats from the LNP. And they didnt sell the costing issue well. How they didnt have that argument nicely sewn up from way back I do not know. Their pitch and their resourcing of the sell just wasnt up to the tidal wave coming from Palmer, LNP and Murdoch.
The ALP lost for dozens of reasons. But you dont need to throw out the baby with the kitchen sink. Fix a couple, tweak a couple and hold the b@stards to account with renewed vigor.
I mentioned this the other day. EOI tenders are going out for components of that railway project and the ‘buyer’ is being kept secret from the tenderer at this stage.
Which suggests it isnt Adani?
@Simon² Katich®
The NEG is a good start, however according to the IPCC we have about a decade to prevent catastrophic climate change. That is going to require very drastic, radical policies aimed at transforming our economy and possibly the mobilization of society on the scale of World War II.
The Greens have recognized this, however have not developed anything concentrate which will meet this challenge. Only people such as for example; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Yanis Yaroufakis have proposed such measures.
Lars
No worries, so Labor leaves Melbourne alone. Not a problem.
Tristo says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 9:29 am
@briefly
I am a Greens voter
How does it feel to be taken for a ride by complete charlatans?
zoomster. Oh. Sorry. I skimmed.
try this. page 16+17
https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/energy-update-report-2017.pdf
Tristo says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 9:33 am
@Simon² Katich®
The NEG is a good start, however according to the IPCC we have about a decade to prevent catastrophic climate change. That is going to require very drastic, radical policies aimed at transforming our economy and possibly the mobilization of society on the scale of World War II.
Doubtless this is correct. The effect of the Green campaign against Labor is to ensure such measures will never be taken in Australia. Never. They have put the LNP into power. They will ensure they stay there.
“I am confident Anthony Albanese would make a fine Labor leader, it is just I argue his leadership could be shipwrecked if he is seen as ‘sitting on the fence’ when it comes to the issue of Climate Change. The same has happened to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party in Britain over Brexit.”
Good morning all. Posting as a relapsed Bludger still in shock over the GE.
Good to still see some massive cognitive dissonance going on by those with entrenched mindsets and a very narrow perspective on the greater Australian voting public. Like this little vignette above:
Shorter Tristo: If Albo doesn’t bend the knee the 10.2% will put a “1” in the box next to the Greens candidate even more vigorously than before – they may even break the tip of the lead pencil as they do so! There! Take that Albo!!
On the other hand, If Albo does position a CC policy “half way between the Greens and LNP” policies [FFS, you haven’t been paying attention over the past decade have you] then the 10.2% will be more gentle with the lead pencil in the ballot box as mark “1” next to the Greens. … Meanwhile Labor still fails to pick up more than 11 out of 46 seats in Queensland and WA …
Jesus wept.
Mumble on Grog’s suggestion Labor and the Greens join forces.
Butler had heaps of other ideas beyond energy sector emissions reductions.
For me, energy emissions is heading the right way. I didnt think it needed brave policies to get it over the hump. Subsidised storage, better grid infrastructure and FFS no more Coal power stations.
Land Clearing and re-vegetation is something that needs brave policies and it needs the country voters to be part owners of.
Tristo says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 9:29 am
@briefly
I am a Greens voter, not a supporter and critical of the supporters. Only in Australia I can be seen as a Left-Winger, in Europe I would be considered a Centrist.
So you support no action on climate change. It is not the voting that does the damage it’s the campaigning.
Good to see you back.
The LNP derive political success by opposing every action that would arrest climate change. They have won 3 consecutive elections by holding to this. Tony Abbott was correct. They will continue to stick to this. They will continue to win, assisted by the Greens, who campaign against Labor.
We’re fucked.
briefly @ #919 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 9:41 am
If you’re speaking on behalf of the empty vessel Labor right, you’re right.
The Saturday Paper said that Labor would have won the 2019 election with a majority of 56 out of 105 seats if Queensland and WA were excluded.
Before I return to my 6 month Bludger sabbatical, I wonder is some fellow bludger is able to do some calculations of what the GE results would have been since say 1996, if Queensland and WA were excluded.
To win next time, Labor would need a 2PP vote that would match their best two results since the war, results that were achieved when the Labor plurality was much higher than it now is. We have to accept this is not going to happen unless the plurality can be rebuilt.
There will be nothing but heartache.
Rex….the LNP will be in office for decades. We are all thoroughly fucked. Think back. In 1929, Andrew Scullin won from Opposition – a great victory. However Labor did not win again from Opposition for 43 years. I think that record can be broken. The Right are strong in Australia. The Left is weak and divided. We will continue to lose.
If I recall correctly there are a number of Tottenham Hotspurs fans on this site, to which all I can say is:
COME ON YOU REDS!!!!!
PvO said Scotty might be a pentecostalist but is pragmatic and won’t be co-opted into the religious freedom for employment contracts issue.
“To win next time, Labor would need a 2PP vote that would match their best two results since the war, results that were achieved when the Labor plurality was much higher than it now is. We have to accept this is not going to happen unless the plurality can be rebuilt.
There will be nothing but heartache.”
Hartcher reckons that Labor needs another 1.3 million votes – enough to put in on parity with the LNP on Primaries. Shenanigans to that.
Shenanigans to your pessimism as well briefly: me thinks you are conflating what Labor needs to do to win a handful of marginals with a national 2PP swing.
The reality is that there is never a uniform national swing. What Labor needs to do better is targeting key constituencies in key seats that fell away from Labor at rates higher than the national result. This is no easy task, granted: but it is a different task than the one that either you or the always wrong in advance, yet always wise after the event, hack Peter Hartcher.
Briefly, I think you need to stop throwing yourself a pity party. Maybe a lengthy period of quite reflection – as I urge all comrades to engage in – before jumping to conclusions. Let the dust settle a little bit before locking in opinions about what exactly happened on 18 May and what this actually means for Labor going forward.
briefly @ #923 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 9:54 am
Climate change policy is not an issue you can meet halfway on. Labor must learn the lesson the voters taught them. Either buy in fully with the L/NP or the Greens – Green jobs or dirty jobs …?
I wonder when the Shadow Cabinet is gong to be announced. Karvelas saying that”of course” Shorten would be “safer out of the way” in Trade or FA didn’t thrill me.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 10:10 am
briefly @ #923 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 9:54 am
Rex….the LNP will be in office for decades. We are all thoroughly fucked. Think back. In 1929, Andrew Scullin won from Opposition – a great victory. However Labor did not win again from Opposition for 43 years. I think that record can be broken. The Right are strong in Australia. The Left is weak and divided. We will continue to lose.
Climate change policy is not an issue you can meet halfway on. Labor must learn the lesson the voters taught them. Either buy in fully with the L/NP or the Greens – Green jobs or dirty jobs …?
This entirely misses the point.
There will be no meaningful, effective political response to climate change in Australia. The only source for this is the Left. The Left is internally divided and weak. It is opposed by the Right, who are strong, well-funded, well-organised, supported by the media and ruthless about winning. Disaffection is expressing itself with increased support for the Right.
There is no possibility whatsoever that the Left – taken generally – will get its act together. Until this happens, we will continue to lose. This is the lesson of more than a century of democratic politics in Australia. We are gonna lose. We have already lost.
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 1, 2019 at 5:12 pm
Not Sure
“It is also not hypocritical to say that my not liking Albo does not mean he will be a good leader for Labor, or that I might warm to him in future. Plenty of people I started off disliking for one reason or another have ended up being my friends – the friendship has, in fact, been closer because of the initial mutual suspicions being overcome. Similarly, people who I didn’t think would turn out to be good leaders have proved me wrong.”
Interested in your Albo comments.
Am surprised media has not recalled how it was Albo first came to public notice.
Was in the 2010 hung parliament where as Leader of House he had the job of being Julia’s first defender. He was magnificent! Day after sitting day, speech after speech, he would repel the invasion of the evil doers! Plain speaking and yet eloquent, always to the point and tough, so tough.
And this was against Tony Abbott and his turbo charged opposition.
That’s when Albo earned his leader of Opp chops imo. Not sure if Morrison will give him enough flint to fire off, but we shall see.
Confessions @ #929 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 7:58 am
I call bullshit on that one. He’s pragmatic enough to know that if the rest of his party are making an issue of it (which they are), his days as leader are numbered unless he joins them.
Thinking about Australian politics purely in terms of “left” and “right” isn’t helping: either yourself personally briefly, or the wider debate going forward.
S.K – thanks, that’s what I was looking for!
Confessions @ #876 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 8:25 am
Democrats (and the left generally) need to stop buying that argument. Corbyn is screwed because he sat on the fence, too scared to pick one side or the other on Brexit. Shorten lost in part because he sat on the fence, too scared to pick one side or the other on Adani/climate change. Sitting on the fence does not win elections, it undermines power and loses influence.
It’s time to remember how to do politics:
Step 1 – Pick a side
Step 2 – Articulate why your side is right
Step 3 – Attack the other side for being wrong
…or in other words, demonstrate leadership. Sitting around too scared to act is not leadership, and voters everywhere know it.
A_E
I don’t feel sorry for myself. I feel despondent for the country. We’ve fucked ourselves up. There is an air of total unreality about all this. The worst government we’ve ever had is stronger than ever. The divisions on the Left are worse than ever. The problems are greater than ever.
We are a shambles.
briefly:
Please stop being so pessimistic. At best the Tories will have 78 seats, only two up on the ’16 election.
The next election is very winnable. As for The Greens, they’re not going away, and as such, you’d be better accepting this fact.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #933 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 10:33 am
I agree. It’s issue by issue done the best way according to the scientific/economic evidence to benefit society as a whole.
Andrew_Earlwood:
How’s your self-imposed six-month sabbatical going(?).
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 10:33 am
Thinking about Australian politics purely in terms of “left” and “right” isn’t helping: either yourself personally briefly, or the wider debate going forward.
The Libs and their clones are all Right, Andrew. Those who stand against them are the Non-Right. We are a divided, weak minority. We better get our heads around this. We have to change it.
Must have been a fun family.
.
.
.
‘Dad’s intervention killed deal’
Israel Folau was reportedly set to accept career-saving deal until his dad told him he’d “go to hell”.
By CHRISTINE KELLETT
COMMENTARY
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/rugby-union/folaus-dad-intervened-to-stop-careersaving-deal/news-story/1da354d9bf3a4f0c7ed1ac8e6091cb11
The Libs and their clones have well over 80 seats. They have a strong position in the Senate. They will do whatever they like.
On a more general note, the tensions between the economic situation and the environment will only get worse. This will suit the Libs and their chums.
Morrison is so pragmatic that he’d drop his “beliefs” in an instant if it helps him to hold on to power. Covered by adequate sanctimonious pronouncements, of course.
Choice bro.
Shorten could have played that with a straighter bat (pun unintended).
“I agree. It’s issue by issue done the best way according to the scientific/economic evidence to benefit society as a whole.”
Where you seem to fall down is on the issue of political evidence: I reckon that the ‘pure’ left in Australia only equate to about 15% of the population. The right equate to about 40%, the rest are in the middle – your despised ‘centrists’: most of these 45% of folk in the middle give zero fucks about politics on a day to day basis. About 20% of the 45% have an inbuild bias towards Labor. About 15% have an inbuilt lean to conservatism, leaving about 10% of the population as low information swingers blowing in the wind. Regional dynamics also play a powerful role.
The political calculus for a progressive movement dedicated to reform through the levers of government is how to stack those various demographics together in a way that allows for long term governments to be formed to implement long term, structural, enduring change all the while being mindful of the scientific/economic/social evidence as to what is required. Tricky that.
“Andrew_Earlwood:
How’s your self-imposed six-month sabbatical going(?).”
Not well. Obviously.
But that enough from me for now. Checking back into Betty Ford this afternoon.
Peace. Out.