Ben Phillips of the Australian National University has been hawking research showing the demographic indicators that associated most clearly with the federal election swing, with the clearest patterns relating to Christianity, which correlated with a swing against Labor, and education and income, which went the other way. Evidently the Australia Institute has done something similar, with findings reported by Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald.
In considering research of this kind, one must acknowledge the perils of the ecological fallacy, whereby inferences about the behaviour of individuals are inappropriately drawn from aggregate-level data. My favourite illustration of this point relates to American politics, wherein the Republicans’ strongest states are those of the dirt-poor deep south, whereas wealthier voters favour the more conservative party in the United States as surely as they do here. As such, it should be recognised that Christian areas swinging to the Coalition need not signify that Christian voters did.
Nonetheless, the relationship between swings and the demographic features of the areas in which they did or didn’t happen is interesting in and of itself, and really all we have to go on until the Australian National University eventually publishes its Australian Election Study survey, particularly in the absence of intensive and high-quality exit polling that is conducted in the United States.
My own number crunching along these lines has involved collecting demographic measures of the areas in which each polling booth is located, and using multiple regression analysis to determine how well they predicted the primary vote swing to or against Labor. The results were as interesting for what didn’t prove predictive as for what did. In particular, an electorate’s age profile appeared to have little impact on its swing – or at least, none that couldn’t be better explained by other variables that might themselves correlate with age. This theme was picked up on in the article linked to above by Ross Gittins, which argues against the widely held notion that franking credits was the main culprit behind Labor’s poor show.
After a bit of trial and error, and whittling it down to variables that didn’t appear to be separately measuring identical effects, the most instructive variables proved to be income, home ownership, education and industry of employment, with a few ethnicity measures registering as worth-including-but-only-just.
| Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | -6.9363 | 0.581753 | -11.923 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| Median Income | 0.318518 | 0.149976 | 2.124 | 0.033719 | * |
| Home Owned | 0.032418 | 0.005457 | 5.94 | 2.97E-09 | *** |
| Secular/No Religion | 0.105852 | 0.007944 | 13.325 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| PrimaryIndustry | 0.007588 | 0.008037 | 0.944 | 0.345122 | |
| Construction | -0.071534 | 0.015903 | -4.498 | 6.95E-06 | *** |
| Manufacturing | -0.115724 | 0.016538 | -6.998 | 2.82E-12 | *** |
| Retail Trade | -0.061778 | 0.018229 | -3.389 | 0.000705 | *** |
| Prof/Sci/Tech | 0.147833 | 0.021587 | 6.848 | 8.05E-12 | *** |
| Education/Health | 0.054147 | 0.01123 | 4.822 | 1.45E-06 | *** |
| Indian/Sri Lankan | 0.045852 | 0.018952 | 2.419 | 0.015571 | * |
| East/S-E Asian | 0.016341 | 0.007274 | 2.246 | 0.024706 | * |
| VICdummy | 3.132668 | 0.18731 | 16.724 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| QLDdummy | -1.626883 | 0.190881 | -8.523 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| WAdummy | -0.538074 | 0.244318 | -2.202 | 0.02767 | * |
| SAdummy | 5.385121 | 0.267704 | 20.116 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| TASdummy | -2.856952 | 0.369256 | -7.737 | 1.15E-14 | *** |
| ACTdummy | -3.811539 | 0.6012 | -6.34 | 2.43E-10 | *** |
| NTdummy | 0.879791 | 0.853752 | 1.03 | 0.302807 |
The numbers in the “Estimate” column show the coefficients, i.e. how much each increment of that variable associated with the Labor swing. Three stars at the end means the effect is highly significant, two stars somewhat significant, one star of some significance, and with no stars we can’t say with any confidence if the relationship was positive or negative.
So, to pick one of the more striking results, for every 1% of population identifying as secular or “no religion”, Labor’s vote tended to be around 0.1% higher, independent of all other factors. Or to raise the stakes a little, Labor typically did 1% better in swing terms in places where 40% of the population identified as secular as compared with those where 30% did so. Note that the “median income” refers to weekly family income, and is measured in thousands of dollars – so an area with $2000 median family income typically did 0.3% for Labor than one with half that.
The biggest surprise for me is that “primary industry” – percentage of the workforce in mining, agriculture, forestry and fishing – had no significant explanatory power in and of itself. This doesn’t sit well with the drubbing Labor copped in central Queensland and the seat of Hunter, for which I can’t offer a ready explanation, except perhaps that I should have broken out mining and measured it independently of the others.
However, a significant negative effect is recorded for the other blue-collar industries of construction and manufacturing, together with the generally low-wage retail sector. This, remember, is independent of the effect of income, such that Labor would have suffered a combined whammy of the various effects in low-income areas with large workforces in the aforementioned industries.
On the other side of the coin, the “professional/scientific/technical” industry designation recorded a strong positive association with the Labor swing, and this too needs to be understood as part of a double whammy with the income effect. This was evident in the large-but-useless swings Labor picked up in blue-ribbon metropolitan seats. The positive effect recorded for education/health is interesting, perhaps suggesting a public-versus-private sector effect.
A fair bit has been said of Labor’s bad show with the Chinese community, but it was actually found that the “East/South-East Asian” population had a slight positive correlation with the Labor swing. However, the recorded effect is very likely drowned out by the strong positive result for “secular/no religion” variable, which records the effect of the swing against Labor in the various ethnic enclaves of Sydney and, to a less extent, Melbourne.
Finally, the “dummy” variables simply record how much of the swing could be explained by the state in which a booth was located, again independent of all other factors. Note that no measure for New South Wales is included, as it serves as the benchmark against which the other states and territories are being measured. The strong positive result in South Australian reflects that this is a primary vote measure, and both major parties rose in South Australia off the demise of the Nick Xenophon Team.
The r-squared value for the model is around 0.25, which is to say that all of this explains only about one-quarter of the variation in the Labor swing. In a future episode, I might take a closer look at what the model fails to predict by looking at individual electorates that bucked the various demographic trends just noted.
Note also: the new post below on the count for the Senate, in which only Queensland appears still in doubt, and the ongoing one dealing with close races in seat for the House, albeit that yesterday’s counting provided essentially nothing new to report.
https://amp.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/the-ship-has-now-sailed-for-the-retail-sector-as-brands-struggle-amid-gloomy-forecast/news-story/6cd6bd1814f12c02293924292d2c60c5
http://amp.abc.net.au/article/10758742
The libs (via their media mates) always find a way to get working / middle-class australians to vote against their interests. For a while it was boats. Now, it’s religion and the cost of action on climate change. Wonder what it will be next time.
C@T, this might interest your son who is feeling stressed about the future. It’s young people talking, and their take is easier to approach, though no less serious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n__y1FXK_jE&t=2104s
Victoria
You are right there are number of services, in fact not far from where this terrible crime took place the new Ozamon House redeveloped has recently been completed. and I do wonder how things would have turned out had the Kennett Government implemented the Pembleton report which recommended a number of policy changes in the illegal drug space.
My point about the state is when the new RCH was constructed it resulted in several large vacant buildings which I would think could have been converted to housing instead of being turned back into parkland.
Is it only women who are perhaps not as confident about Albo’s leadership talents? I agree with remarks earlier. And add Richard Marles…
zoomster @ #45 Monday, May 27th, 2019 – 9:16 am
If Albanese had put his head above the parapet any time during the last 6 years he would have been accused of having leadership ambitions. It is to his credit that he hasn’t had much exposure. He was though a brilliant leader of the House under Gillard and I’m told is very, very bright. We will see
Fess
It went very well. Thanks for asking. So relieved it is over though!
It was an awesome celebration. The happy couple have a large and close knit group of friends, most of which they have had since they started high school. This especially is what made it a great celebration. Lots of love in the room.
Labor MPs have started erasing the memory of Bill Shorten from their social media pages and replacing him with photos of Anthony Albanese or snaps with their pets.’
KK has moved on quick:
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/labor-mps-erase-bill-shorten-from-social-media-pages-following-shock-election-loss-ng-b881209721z
Zoidlord @ #41 Monday, May 27th, 2019 – 9:14 am
Because it’s profitable.
“have voted for the party who reassured them that nothing much would change and the economy would remain strong, as opposed to the party that was speaking about a Brave New World.”
Its certainly plausible.
I’m trying hard to be objective and not just write them off as gullible, low info twits voting against their self interest. Not ready to be reasonable as yet. Some of those voters obviously need to suffer a bit more Coalition policy in their lives with low wages and more stripping of penalty rates. My inner bitch definitely wants that next time QLD sticks it hand out for disaster relief they can stick that up their arse the ignorant gits. They are like a lot of farmers. 🙁 All collective responsibility and help each other when they want something from the rest of Australia, and then go all bogan aggressive small penis “you cant tell us what to do”…….gits. 🙁
Yes, haven’t finished venting as yet.
Still, pleased that the ALP leadership sorted. Albo will do well i reckon. And, he deserves respect for putting himself up for the traditional shit sandwich that is post election loss LOTO. Lets the ALP move soonest into a period where we can actually work out what the lessons of the election ARE (way to early to know at the moment), learn them, and start work on a platform for the next election.
I was disappointed in Clare O’Neil’s i.v. on Insiders yesterday. She backed Marles.
I am also amused that the ABC made a point about ScMo’s increased number of women in his Cabinet. Reminds me of “Never mind the quality, feel the width”.
lizzie @ #55 Monday, May 27th, 2019 – 9:24 am
I think we are stuck with them, and I hope for the best for Albo and Marles, the reason being that I just read yesterday that both Jim Chalmers and Clare O’Neil pulled out of running because they both have young families. Jim Chalmers has 3 young ones, the youngest only 5 months!
zoomster says:
Monday, May 27, 2019 at 9:16 am
filr
Fair enough, but can you deal with the base question?
(Actually, aren’t you reinforcing what I’m saying? Here I am, a Labor activist, involved in the party for a few decades, and even basic facts about Albo haven’t resonated with me….)
The fact that Albanese is part Italian origin has always been widely known – the fact you missed it, I think says more about your engagement with those outside your own point of view than it does with Albanese communication skills.
I don’t know if Albanese is going to succeed – and I would have liked a leadership contest – I would probably have voted for him and for Plibesek as deputy, but the factional zombies in charge of the party at the moment won’t allow that.
By the way I line up on the right of the party, but I want those I think can do a good job re-engaging with Labor’s natural base; if that means 2 left wingers so be it – rather than another colourless faction man like Marles. In any case left/right hardly mean anything in factional terms.
Jackol
The Indi independent campaign says it’s grassroots. A lot of meaningless statements drawn from self help books (“Be your best self!” “Find true north!”), group building activities (let’s all get together and cut out cardboard cockatoos!), secret society type signalling (orange seats sitting outside people’s gates, cardboard cockatoos stuck to trees) – very little on actual policy, and of course, no accountability – we can ‘put Indi first’ with our demands and let others work out how they are delivered and paid for.
A highly effective campaign, yes, but there’s no substance to it – the beauty of that being that the indie isn’t responsible for anything that happens, and thus can’t ‘fail’.
I find the whole thing very depressing.
Gittins I have a soft spot for, and in the past he was one of the few people looking at economics from a non-bubble perspective.
But I haven’t been paying much attention to him lately. That analysis of Labor’s ‘big target’ reminds me why. He’s got a few points, and it is probably worth reminding Labor not to overreact to the election result, but there’s some dopey stuff in there as well:
I know Gittins is just trying to frame the uneven political landscape here rather than being read too literally … but (a) I don’t think Labor needs reminding that things are difficult for them, particularly after this result, and (b) what is this ‘meant to be’ stuff? Who meant it? God? The inventors of democracy? The writers of the constitution? Rupert Murdoch? But I repeat myself.
But this was what prompted me to give Gittins a bit of a kick:
Gittins is clearly a fan of Leigh, and hey I like Leigh and think his treatment is symptomatic of the dangers of unchecked factional power plays within the Labor party, but the basic argument here is rubbish. “it reinforces voters’ suspicion” … it does nothing of the sort because I would guess that 90% of the population wouldn’t know who Andrew Leigh was from a bar of soap and 95% would have no idea that he was being relegated to a junior role because of factional power plays. There are many issues upon which the ALP needs to urgently work to build trust with the voting public, but the positioning of one Andrew Leigh is not one of them. To adopt an unfortunate Morrisonism, this is real Canberra bubble stuff.
Having said that I do hope that the ALP works out how to deal with unaligned and non-union based talent better, and that Andrew Leigh gets a better deal.
The Libs will probably decide to build the Galilee railway, cementing their electoral advantage in Queensland and wedging Labor for decades. The Greens will like it, because this will give them something they can use against Labor at all times and in all places, in the same way as they use Manus and Nauru to attack Labor.
If a railway line is built, even the Galilee basin will be economically feasible, at least for a couple of decades.
If you’re Morrison, what’s not to like? He helps maintain LNP domination in Queensland. He arms the Lib-kin. He delivers to his financial supporters.
The risk is to seats in other States. But the LNP know how to win there too. They have few very tight marginals left in Melbourne and Sydney, and maybe can make gains in NSW and WA.
Vic:
Sounds like it was a wonderful day for your family. And something positive and uplifting when things have been so depressing the last week or so.
Confessions says:
Monday, May 27, 2019 at 9:29 am
The libs (via their media mates) always find a way to get working / middle-class australians to vote against their interests.
I find the whole thing very depressing.
Dysfunction on the Left is keeping the Libs in office.
Mexicanbeemer
No doubt more services are always needed and welcome.
But I can tell you from experience that when you are dealing with someone in the midst of an episode, they are belligerent and difficult to manage.
With all the help and support in the world, they still decide to do their own thing and get themselves in very dangerous and difficult situations.
And when they do go into special accommodation and have a plan in place to help them through, more often than not they go walkabout to find their next hit.
It’s a merry go round.
And the very sad part in all this, is that their own families often say that their child is almost better off dead than living this horrible nightmare existence.
Unless you see and live it, many people don’t understand.
It is not about the homelessness. It is about the effect of taking these drugs and how it damages the brain irrevocably.
Personally I’m not impressed by either Albanese or Marles. But the leadership characters do not matter. What matters is that Labor start from the very beginning with beating the Coalition at their own game. They have to be absolutely savage in calling out every misstep, failure, act of corruption and lie uttered by these clowns – starting with the Melissa Price’s demotion despite Morrison guaranteeing she would remain.
The only possible way that Labor can win going forward is by focussing on the failure of the government. Promoting policies be damned. People can’t get their heads around them and we finish up with Adani (heavily funded by Coalition grants) and the like.
lizzie:
Albo as leader could’ve been more palatable had he had a woman deputy, or at least someone who represents the future of the party.
Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles are like a boganville version of Dad’s Army. Blech!
filr
And yet I know far more about other NSW based Labor MPs who aren’t as prominent as Albo. I’m not adverse to Albo on any factional/issues grounds – I’m a great fan of infrastructure and of the VFT between Sydney and Melbourne, for example.
I’m actually a sort of honourary Italian (our soccer club is basically Italian, and I’ve was secretary for years; I’ve taken visiting pollies into local Italian homes; for a long time, one of the leading members of our local branch was Italian), so the fact I wasn’t aware Albanese was Italian actually points to something. I’ve never had any member of the Italian community mention his name to me.
Fess
We have had lots going on with our families with respect to health matters over the past month, and of course the election was the icing on top.
So having this day to just enjoy a happy occasion, was fantastic.
Adani’s poor environmental and financial reputation in India is rarely mentioned. They are untrustworthy.
“it does nothing of the sort because I would guess that 90% of the population wouldn’t know who Andrew Leigh was from a bar of soap and 95% would have no idea that he was being relegated to a junior role because of factional power plays.”
There is that wot. 🙂
“The Libs will probably decide to build the Galilee railway, cementing their electoral advantage in Queensland and wedging Labor for decades.”
They could do. More likely they will take the easier path and simply “allocate” $ to it for the next election cycle. Do it on the never never and get most of the electoral benefit but never actually spend anything other than the consultancy fees for your mates.
TPOF
Yes, but that does depend a lot on the leadership team. When I say “I’m unsure about Albo” these are the precise things I’m unsure about. I don’t think he’s at good as team building as Shorten, for example.
Victoria
Drugs are a curse and as you say it is difficult for anyone who hasn’t been exposed to that space to understand it, its not hard too see why social services has such a high staff turnover. Its a difficult policy area because in many cases there are no simple answers.
‘ I want those I think can do a good job re-engaging with Labor’s natural base..’
Well, I don’t necessarily want this or think it’s a good idea. As I said, bases change. Labor’s natural base one hundred years ago was different to its base fifty years ago.
Barry Jones came to a dinner here years ago, when Hanson was first a thing. He told a story about an old guy coming up to him and saying, “I’ve voted Labor all my life, but I’ve heard now that Aboriginal children are getting free pencils, so I’m voting for Hanson.”
Jones’ reaction (not to the man, obviously) was along the lines – “If he’s our base, do we really want him?”
Zoomster
so the fact I wasn’t aware Albanese was Italian actually points to something. I’ve never had any member of the Italian community mention his name to me.
______________________________________
From what I understand of his backstory, the most Italian thing about Albanese is his name. He was raised by his mother who was Irish Catholic in ancestry after she got pregnant to an Italian she met on a cruise ship and where there was no contact with his father as a child. See
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-23/anthony-albanese-search-finds-father-he-thought-was-dead/7776918
✔ Victoria ✔
Monday, May 27th, 2019 – 9:31 am
Comment #66
I remember so well from 50 years ago. The hopelessness, the fear, the despair, the shame and the inability to escape.
You have provided excellent material. Well done. ✔✔
a r @ #59 Monday, May 27th, 2019 – 9:27 am
That’s it. There’s the problem – capitalism.
TPOF
I agree. Attack from the beginning. Albo says his life’s work is beating Tories. This is his big chance, although his first remarks about having a conversation don’t inspire me.
The Coal was apparently scared that Shorten might win. Anyone know how they feel about the new leadership?
Clearly, hard-pressed workers are prepared to vote against social justice if it means they might get to keep their jobs or find one at all.
This country abandoned its commitment to full employment decades ago. We are seeing the political consequences of this betrayal of working people – a surrender of a basic tenet of social and economic policy to a cruel ideology.
It’s time that Labor restated this as a goal of economic policy. This is good policy. It’s also good politics.
mexicanbeemer
I always say, that if you can keep your kids away from these insidious drugs, you are doing well.
Kayjay
Cheers
Zoomster
If you’re “a sort of honourary Italian” how did you miss his clear Italian surname (even with Ozzie style pronunciation)? You in fact presumed – and obviously didn’t check – that it was Lebanese – because of a kind of cockney rhyming slang?
In fact his surname means “Albanian” from the Albanian refugees who fled to Italy from the Turkish conquest in the 1400s.
F
I’m highlighting this from the article C@t posted, because it underlines the narrative I’ve been peddling – they vote how they feel, not how they think :
As one resigned observer of the “Canberra consultancy complex” puts it: “People listen to what makes them feel good, not what makes things seem difficult.”
zoomster also said that Albo was complicit in the Obeid corruption campaign because of him being a member of the Lebanese community.
Bullshit on Sky News:
.@JoanneNova: Warming is mostly beneficial, especially in Australia. Carbon dioxide feeds plants that are more likely to be drought prone.
Has ABC got there yet?
I am convinced this federal election was our Brexit moment with the issue being Climate Change. Brexit has deeply polarised the British electorate in the last three years, not to mention radicalizing it to the extent a large minority are fine with a disastrous “No Deal” Brexit.
However the difference is Theresa May supported Remain in the Brexit Referendum. Scott Morrison is a guy who proudly brought a lump of coal into the House of Representatives. Also he would likely be totally happy to use climate change as a wedge issue against Labor.
zoomster, what ever have you done to deserve this?
We used to say must have killed a Chinaman (whatever the derivation of that was I don’t know) but of course I wouldn’t dare say it these days.
Sorry, but criticism of Albanese as a poor communicator is unfair. If Albanese had been vocal over the past six years he would have been accused of machiavellian machinations, giving speeches etc. He deserves credit for refraining from the undermining so commonly seen from players in that situation.
Meanwhile, everyone zipped their lips about their misgivings about Shorten, for the greater good. Even when their reaction was “blech”.
Yet we hear of Shorten attempting to play a role in undermining Albanese’s bid for the leadership. Fair enough perhaps in the context of a leadership selection process. But the proof of the pudding will be in whether he falls in behind Albanese as leader now.
TPOF:
Thanks for that story about Albanese searching for his father. I had no idea that was in his family history.
Re Retail Workers
This group are extremely diverse, lots of uni students with aspirations paying their way, if you want a go have a go.
Lots of small businesses employ one or two workers and the boss would have reminded them that if wages rise jobs will go.
Another cohort would be mums with husbands in tradie type jobs who think that overall Libs better for the family.
Clever bloke, that Angus.
And so the long dark night of Labors next two terms in opposition begins.
I hope Albo does some real damage fighting Tories setting Labor up for a win in 2025. Who will lead Labor post the 2022 election is anyone’s guess.
The alp have to ditch their timidity. They owe it to the true believers to show some fight.
By the way I heard Barry Jones talk just this April in East Melbourne – he was quite emphatic that Labor needed to break the control of the narrow cohort of political factional operatives, and engage more with the wider social groups that should form Labor’s natural base.
Sad to see the that Germany’s Antisemitism Commisioner has said that Jews should not wear skullcaps in public do to the rise in antisemitism and hate crimes against Jews in Germany.
@Mundo
Labor cannot afford to be seen as ‘sitting on the fence’ on climate change. Because like Brexit this issue is starting to radicalize the electorate.
Jeremy Corbyn was seen as exactly this on the issue Brexit and the Labour Party polled less than the Liberal Democrats and barely higher than the Green Party in the European Elections!
Could Labor be out-polled by the Greens at the next Federal Election and Anthony Albanese lost his seat to them, if they are seen as sitting on the fence on climate change, that is a possibility.
That is a warning for Scott Morrison as well, because parties such as One Nation could soar in support, to levels like more than 20% if the government are seen as ‘sitting on the fence’ on climate change as well. However I can’t see him making that sort of mistake. Since he is most shrew political operator since John Howard federally.