The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age – or the Herald/Age, to adopt what is evidently Nine Newspapers’ own preferred shorthand for its Sydney and Melbourne papers – have revealed their opinion polling will be put on ice for an indefinite period. They usually do that post-election at the best of times, but evidently things are more serious now, such that we shouldn’t anticipate a resumption of its Ipsos series (which the organisation was no doubt struggling to fund in any case).
This is a shame, because Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood has been admirably forthright in addressing what went wrong – and, importantly, in identifying the need for pollsters to observe greater transparency, a quality that has been notably lacking from the polling scene in Australia. In particular, Elgood has called for the establishment of a national polling standards body along the lines of the British Polling Council, members of which are required to publish details of their survey and weighting methods. This was echoed in a column in the Financial Review by Labor pollster John Utting, who suggests such a body might be chaired by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, who oversees the in-depth post-election Australian Election Study survey.
On that point, I may note that I had the following to say in Crikey early last year:
The very reason the British polling industry has felt compelled to observe higher standards of transparency is that it would invite ridicule if it sought to claim, as Galaxy did yesterday, that its “track record speaks for itself”. If ever the sorts of failures seen in Britain at the 2015 general election and 2016 Brexit referendum are replicated here, a day of reckoning may arrive that will shine light on the dark corners of Australian opinion polling.
Strange as it may seem though, not everyone is convinced that Australian polling really put on all that bad a show last weekend. Indeed, no less an authority than Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has just weighed in with the following:
Polls showed the conservative-led coalition trailing the Australian Labor Party approximately 51-49 in the two-party preferred vote. Instead, the conservatives won 51-49. That’s a relatively small miss: The conservatives trailed by 2 points in the polls, and instead they won by 2, making for a 4-point error. The miss was right in line with the average error from past Australian elections, which has averaged about 5 points. Given that track record, the conservatives had somewhere around a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
So the Australian media took this in stride, right? Of course not. Instead, the election was characterized as a “massive polling failure” and a “shock result”.
When journalists say stuff like that in an election after polls were so close, they’re telling on themselves. They’re revealing, like their American counterparts after 2016, that they aren’t particularly numerate and didn’t really understand what the polls said in the first place.
I’m not quite sure whether to take greater umbrage at Silver’s implication that Antony Green and Kevin Bonham “aren’t particularly numerate”, or that the are – huck, spit – “journalists”. The always prescient Dr Bonham managed a pre-emptive response:
While overseas observers like Nate Silver pour scorn on our little polling failure as a modest example of the genre and blast our media for failing to anticipate it, they do so apparently unfamiliar with just how good our national polling has been compared to polling overseas.
And therein lies the rub – we in Australia have been rather spoiled by the consistently strong performance of Newspoll’s pre-election polls especially, which have encouraged unrealistic expectations. On Saturday though, we saw the polls behaving no better, yet also no worse, than polling does generally.
Indeed, this would appear to be true even in the specifically Australian context, so long as we take a long view. Another stateside observer, Harry Enten, has somehow managed to compare Saturday’s performance with Australian polling going all the way back to 1943 (“I don’t know much about Australian politics”, Enten notes, “but I do know something about downloading spreadsheets of past poll data and calculating error rates”). Enten’s conclusion is that “the average error in the final week of polling between the top two parties in the first round” – which I take to mean the primary vote, applying the terminology of run-off voting of the non-instant variety – “has been about five points”.
Really getting to the bottom of that barrel.
I believe now that Neo-Liberalism was eventually going to morph into fascism. The Pinochet regime in Chile which implemented the Neo-Liberal economic policies which the Chicago School advocated was a prototype for this new form of fascism. The information revolution has played an important role as well as Timothy Synder explains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUA9MKV1YyU
Entsch appointed special envoy to the GBR. A bit late to that party isn’t it?
Agree completely. I think there is an element to which their problems, like no medicare (thanks Labor) a rubbish social safety net, and corruption even more rampant than in the Australian LNP Govt, helps get the outcome. Also while AOC is moving all sorts of windows and shining the light in many places if elected the ALP actually could have reduced tax subsidies for the wealthy. Actually implement as law. They also had a number of company tax proposals that would have seen company tax receipts significantly increase.
As much as I love talking of a 70% marginal tax bracket for Australians earning over $5 million, and inheritance taxes, actually having a govt that worked in the right direct was easily within our reach and we chose deliberately to not go that direction. We chose corruption, increasingly lower taxes for the wealthy and no action on climate change for the next three years. Whether or not we did that accidentally, or thoughtlessly isn’t really the issue.
A-G and Industrial Relations to one minister. What a strange combination.
Unless there is something sinister in mind.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, May 26, 2019 at 2:35 pm
…”Not Sure, I don’t need to look at your IP address to work out that you’re not Bemused”…
Thanks.
I’m hopeful that the various conspiracy theorist’s, too stupid to figure this out for themselves, might be able to sleep at night once more with your assurance.
Or at least find a way of creating a counter-argument that isn’t the blogging equivalent of – you smell.
That is interesting.
Ask Tony Abbott on how well his assumption that democratising the preselection would mean more Liberals like him went.
Confessions @ #1788 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 3:21 pm
Well, I guess the Environment has half a chance now. 😐
Well, I guess the Environment has half a chance now.
_____
But I don’t fancy Defence Industry’s chances though!
Without seeing the story from Zoomster regarding Albo, I will point out that it isn’t unusual for politicians to be very different in the privacy of their office than when they are in front of the media. I know of stories regarding politicians and have seen ministers that act differently away from the cameras.
In someways the behind the scene politicians are more interesting but the media can barely cope with small policy disagreements let alone showing us the real people sitting on the leather.
I don’t envy politicians because along with sports stars and other celebrities, they can be judged from one small interaction that could be unfair, whereas most people can have a bad day without it being brought up every time someone wants to have a crack at them on social media.
Confessions @ #1801 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 3:29 pm
First thing he’ll have to deal with:
Port Moresby: Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill announced his resignation on Sunday after seven years in the top job following weeks of high-level defections from the ruling party.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/png-turmoil-as-prime-minister-peter-o-neill-resigns-20190526-p51ra9.html
beguiledagain
cupitity
BK @ #1810 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 3:37 pm
😀
Scratch the “from new projects” (because it doesn’t matter whether the coal comes from new or old projects, and there is more than enough coal in old projects to fry the planet) and I agree with you.
But if you scratch the “from new projects” the focus, necessarily, is squarely on stopping the burning of the coal – my argument – not on the Adani mines of the world.
I don’t like the Adani mine. There are numerous environmental reasons that should stop the mine going ahead – groundwater usage/contamination, habitat destruction – but that apparently will not. But the headline argument about Adani has been about its impact on climate change – quoting vast figures for the amount of coal, the convoy, the schoolies protesting, the inner-city agonizing, when in reality the Adani mine going ahead or not is going to make SFA difference to emissions.
Making bad/baseless arguments devalues the really important stuff. Wasting limited political capital trying to stop an irrelevant mine is diverting attention from the fights that we really need to have.
Minister for shovelling huge sums of taxpayer money into the pockets of Liberal mates while screwing over poor countries.
Simon K
How do you talk to dead coral?
Ley: caught up in a travel rorts scandal and sacked as Health Minister. Promoted.
Price: so hopeless she had to be shoved in a cupboard during a campaign that focused on the one issue relevant to her portfolio. Promoted.
Cash: still surrounded by the stench of her office having tipped off the media to a police raid. Promoted.
Clearly these are ‘women of merit’ the Liberals keep referring to.
Jackol @ #1766 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 3:02 pm
Do people forget that, during the GFC, overseas economies (incl China) stalled, manufacturing reduced and demand for coal decreased, resulting in decreased coal prices and some mine closures. Ample demonstration that the coal market is driven by demand side, not supply side. This is also why Adani and othe Gallilee Basin mines will never go ahead; there is insufficient demand at a high enough prive to make it viable.
Why does Morrison want him out of the country? Or is it a reward for further stuffing up the NBN?
Fess
Well said.
Confessions @ #1778 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 3:14 pm
I think it’s probably the new name for centrelink. The ministry of service that is in charge of denying service – Read “1984” for applicable precedents.
ajm:
You could be right.
The problem with people taking up ideas put forward by AOC and the Buffett tax is that people assume the United States and Australia have the same kind of issues when in reality they are worlds apart.
I had an argument oneday with a guy that thought Australia should take up America’s $15 dollar minimum wage, and it took him a while to get it that Australia’s minimum is already higher than the purposed $15 United States minimum wage.
People often ignore what actually happens here then go looking overseas for solutions when we already do things differently.
It could be argued that the top tax rate comes in too low and if the threshold was increased then the rate could be raised if that was your policy or a new bracket could be introduced at a far higher level then the current top rate.
@markdreyfusQCMP
36m36 minutes ago
When you have no agenda I suppose it’s easy to do three jobs at once.
Existing projects are already providing enough coal to cook the planet and need to cease activity. If you accept this then by what logic does it make any sense to start new projects? You’re just creating one extra project that needs to cease activity. What’s the point?
At least climate deniers are being upfront. They reject the premise that it’s necessary to stop using fossil fuels, and so there’s no reason to leave them in the ground. People who accept the science of climate change and yet still believe that massive new coal projects are permissible are almost worse, because they know it’s wrong.
“Oh but it’s okay because maybe after we dig it up nobody will want to buy it.”
I don’t know about Molan being parachuted into the Senate. The Liberal party already has a person of vast ability that the nation can’t afford to waste. Come on down, Senator Abbott.
“How do you re-program uncritical thinking……………..”
Probably the most hilarious comment on this blog.
The critical thinking of the Left requires that the borders of Leftism previously assumed are not breached or even approached by any argument.
You can argue how flatish the earth is, but not mention the word round, sphere or globe, however reference to turtles is permitted.
LOL at Cameron, the ALP didn’t have any policies to tackle inequality, the ALP hadn’t done the policy work on reforming the welfare sector nor had it developed an alternative plan to the exiting employment system despite there being $7b per year in waste.
lizzie says: Sunday, May 26, 2019 at 3:13 pm
C@t
The very name Hinze sends shudders down my spine.
*****************************************************
I always remember a classic story about Russ Hinze told at his obituary :
All of us have heard the story—whether it is true or not, I am not sure—of the occasion on which he was pulled up for speeding. The young policeman became quite officious. Russ Hinze stepped out of his car, pulled out a road map, laid it across the bonnet of the car and said to the police officer, “This State is a very big place, my young man. Now, where would you like to go?” I am not saying that that policeman let him off; I am not saying that the policeman was sent to Birdsville; I am citing it as an illustration of the sort of jovial fellow that Russ Hinze was. I have no doubt that that policeman will never forget that incident. Russ Hinze was also very forthright in his description of those who broke the law. He used to say that cattle-duffers should be shot first and asked questions later. He had similar views on other matters, which I will leave others to elaborate on.
Only the true Messiah would deny his divinity.
So it must be Bemused.
And guess who is rumoured to be parachuted into Fifield’s Victorian Senate vacancy?
The former Ms Corangamite, Sarah Henderson. 😐
It makes no sense to start new projects. But it also makes no sense to spend all your political capital on stopping new projects – because it is not what matters.
Pick your fights. Adani should not be the focus. Stop new coal power plants, try to get existing coal power plants shut down and replaced with renewables. Promote alternatives to liquid fossil fuels. etc.
Adani is the wrong focus, that’s my point, and is thus a distraction.
Coal dosn’t magically pop out of the ground all at once. It is a process, and that process will be conducted over time as necessary to meet demand. Once again, it’s the demand that matters, and where the effort should go in combating climate change.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, May 26, 2019 at 3:37 pm
“I will point out that it isn’t unusual for politicians to be very different in the privacy of their office than when they are in front of the media.”
—————————–
It would be either a very careless person or a very boring person who behaved the same in private as they behave in front of the media. Particularly the nasty negative types who are found in the Australian media. When you are in front of the media what you say and do will be around for a long time. In private you can afford to be a lot more relaxed and playful.
As I said yesterday (I think), I don’t buy that lots of Labor voters have changed to the lunar right ONP or UAP.
I think that Labor voters are more likely to have changed to the LNP and, at he same time, the more right wing of the NP voter base have changed to ONP and UAP.
It’s actually more logical to think that voters will have moved a shorter distance rather than a longer one and I’ll keep thinking this until someone produces research that proves my assessment wrong.
Those who are saying that all these horrible people have actually jumped straight from Labor to the far right are actually insulting Labor voters and assuming they are just stupid bogans – a very dismissive attitude.
Labor should concentrate on winning over moderate LNP voters. This si likely to be a much more productive activity that slitting wrists about hypothetical uneducated racist bogans who, if they exist, probably never voted Labor anyway.
I agree that Labor didn’t take a plan to the election to help the really poor in Australia. Just the Working Poor.
Just thought I would switch the title “What is the worst Party you have had to endure?”
Enjoy:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/25/1819663/-What-is-the-worst-car-you-ve-ever-had-to-endure
“a substantial new role” for ScoMo’s bestie in Hillside.
Sorry, Hillsong.
C@tmomma @ #1834 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 4:08 pm
No, it has to be Sophie!
Peter
Julia Gillard is a prime example of a person that in person was known to be friendly and easy going but the moment there was a media scum she would often go stiff and wooden.
lizzie says:
Sunday, May 26, 2019 at 3:57 pm
Add to that a lack of talent and it becomes a necessity!
Confessions @ #1778 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 3:14 pm
Bevan ShieldsVerified account@BevanShields
1m1 minute ago
Scott Morrison copying Gladys Berejiklian in establishing an agency to improve service delivery – named Service Australia. Stuart Robert elevated to cabinet to lead it, and also run the NDIS #auspol
I think it’s probably the new name for centrelink. The ministry of service that is in charge of denying service – Read “1984” for applicable precedents.
———————————-
Maybe the services referred to are internet services.
Labor’s policy on Adani is too clever by half. They are don’t want to come out and block it because they think it will be blocked by market forces anyway, and this way they don’t get the blame for any lost jobs. But all they’re doing is signaling to the people in the region that losing out on jobs because of market forces is somehow a better outcome than losing out on jobs because of environmental regulations. People up there don’t respect market forces. They see nothing wrong with the government subsidizing a loss-making mine, which is what the LNP are promising, and what we’ll probably end up stuck with. Stop hiding behind market forces you cowards.
Labor should concentrate on winning over moderate LNP voters. This si likely to be a much more productive activity that slitting wrists about hypothetical uneducated racist bogans who, if they exist, probably never voted Labor anyway.
Exactly what I asserted, ajm. However, I was howled down for wanting to go after voters in inner city Liberal seats that still went to the Liberals, despite the swing against them and to the ALP. I still think it’s a productive path to follow because things are only going to get worse as far as the Coalition going further Right. Which leaves space for Labor to move into.
The campaigning of Kevin Rudd got a lot of swing voters and bored Liberal voters to come over to Labor, and the advent of the first female PM also kept a number of them there, though some disillusioned at the method. This was Shorten’s strategic blunder. And destroyed what could have been a long period of Labor govts.
A small period of ground swell for Labor, that has died since and as always it seems the Liberals are the default party when you are not having a party.
Barney in Saigon @ #1844 Sunday, May 26th, 2019 – 4:12 pm
Need to finish off the task of criminalising industrial action. Soon it will even be illegal even to ask your boss nicely for a pay rise. All those “rights to request permanent status” and “rights to return to the same job after maternity leave” will be in the gun.
Roberts minister for the NDIS
Not sure who else there is too choose from but if Roberts is the best option then maybe no minister would have been better.