Of swings and misses

The Coalition’s parliamentary majority looks secure, as the polling industry starts facing up to what went wrong.

The latest – or some of it at least:

• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.

• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.

• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.

• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,724 comments on “Of swings and misses”

  1. It’s Time says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:02 pm

    …”Unfortunately Rudd chose the weak option in most of those issues, emboldening the opposition, including the MSM”…

    Err,
    What precisely do you think the media and the Liberal Party had to do with it?
    They were as stunned as everyone else.

  2. Lucky CReed 8:38pm

    “Starting now on Anna P in QLD huh, she had withstood the most extraordinary barrage from the news ltd media that I have ever witnessed in my life,(and the courier covers state politics more than federal) far far worse than anything Shorten copped.”

    You must have a short memory. Anna Bligh was treated with the same disdain and disrespect long before Anna P came along. They’ve made two unfortunate mistakes in their lives – being born female and being Labor premiers. Makes them fair game for the C-M .

  3. It`s Time
    I still remember during the 2009 Christmas period having ALP mates talking up an early 2010 DD against a weak LNP over climate and how flat they were when Rudd backed off from going, this included people that were around ministerial offices.

  4. Confessions says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:04 pm

    …”Oh please. Most of us worked it out yonks ago. I have long said Labor should’ve let Rudd contest the 2010 election and then necked him”…

    Brilliant…
    If anyone could up with a more fiendishly cunning plan than the one which the Labor brains trust actually went with, yours is definitely it.

  5. Not Sure @ #1651 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:05 pm

    It’s Time says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:02 pm

    …”Unfortunately Rudd chose the weak option in most of those issues, emboldening the opposition, including the MSM”…

    Err,
    What precisely do you think the media and the Liberal Party had to do with it?
    They were as stunned as everyone else.

    Continual stories about excessive costs of school buildings; most proved unfounded. Hounding a Minister for shonky operators electrocuting their workers and calling him a murderer. Allowing Abbott to gain the upper hand by not calling a double dissolution over the greatest moral issue of our time. Weak options by Rudd which the opposition and MSM dined out on.

  6. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:12 pm

    “I still remember during the 2009 Christmas period having ALP mates talking up an early 2010 DD against a weak LNP over climate and how flat they were when Rudd backed off from going…”

    Yep. KRudd should have had the cajones to do just that, when the public was still on side. Would have resulted in proper action on climate change, AND dealt with Tony Abbott.

  7. It’s Time
    says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:15 pm
    nath @ #1655 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:13 pm
    Now that he can’t stop the Albo ascent Shorten has taken off to Japan for a holiday. Nice.
    Will you stalk him there as well?
    ________________________
    As I’ve said, I have mainly moved on from Shorten and gathering research on my next opponent Mike Freelander.

  8. Jackol says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:03 pm

    …”The original sin was poor leader selection in the first place “…

    Latham, Beazley or Crean?

  9. Prior to Rudd’s departure there was a LOT of media conjecture that he was being plotted against by the party machine men. That’s why he started investigating Gillard’s loyalty (which pissed her off no end, according to reports).

    Then, a couple of days before he got the chop, the speculation ceased, as the media herded around the contention that it was too late to do anything before the winter recess.

    If you believe it took “everyone” by surprise then you got that originally from someone in the media trying to cover their arse for getting it wrong.

  10. Brilliant…
    If anyone could up with a more fiendishly cunning plan than the one which the Labor brains trust actually went with, yours is definitely it.

    LOL at Bemused, still trying to dredge up old grievances, and under yet another sock puppet.

    I agree (in hindsight) with others saying Rudd should’ve had the balls to go to a DD election over AGW.

    But alas he didn’t and yet here we are still talking about freakin history!

  11. DRDR – I probably didn’t pay as much attention with Bligh (also she pissed lots of Labor people off with asset her stripping privatizing ways).

    I think with Anna they went hard for Neumann and he lost and it was a massive blow to their ego to realise their influence was not as great as they thought, so during her first term they were completely feral.

    After she got re elected they backed right off, but they probably think they can smell blood in the water after last Saturday, so here we go again.

  12. Jackol says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:03 pm

    The original sin was poor leader selection in the first place …

    You beat me to it! 🙂

  13. On Speers’ appointment as Insiders host. Hard to disagree.

    Possum Comitatus@Pollytics
    4h4 hours ago
    Let him also do Qanda and turn it into something serious, rather than the politics as entertainment game show it’s become

  14. nath @ #1659 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:17 pm

    It’s Time
    says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:15 pm
    nath @ #1655 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:13 pm
    Now that he can’t stop the Albo ascent Shorten has taken off to Japan for a holiday. Nice.
    Will you stalk him there as well?
    ________________________
    As I’ve said, I have mainly moved on from Shorten and gathering research on my next opponent Mike Freelander.

    Because that’s all you’re good at. Shitposting about Labor MPs.

  15. nath:

    As I’ve said, I have mainly moved on from Shorten and gathering research on my next opponent Mike Freelander.

    You’re going to accuse him of being a paediatrician?

  16. that’s not fair C@t. Apart from Shorten I’ve rarely had a bad word to say about any ALP MPs. Oh, a few digs at Burke and Kitching, but that was very minor criticism.

  17. E. G. Theodore
    says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:26 pm
    nath:
    As I’ve said, I have mainly moved on from Shorten and gathering research on my next opponent Mike Freelander.
    You’re going to accuse him of being a paediatrician?
    _____________________________
    I just picked the most friendly face I could find on the ALP members list.

  18. “…”Indeed the original sin was the removal of Rudd in 2010″…”

    I certainly blame the knifing of Rudd for brexit and the Whitlam dismissal

  19. nath @ #1673 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:28 pm

    that’s not fair C@t. Apart from Shorten I’ve rarely had a bad word to say about any ALP MPs. Oh, a few digs at Burke and Kitching, but that was very minor criticism.

    And now you are freely admitting to desiring to turn your attention to another Labor MP, whether you mean it or not it is still symptomatic of your natural inclination.

  20. C@tmomma
    says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:32 pm
    nath @ #1673 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:28 pm
    that’s not fair C@t. Apart from Shorten I’ve rarely had a bad word to say about any ALP MPs. Oh, a few digs at Burke and Kitching, but that was very minor criticism.
    And now you are freely admitting to desiring to turn your attention to another Labor MP, whether you mean it or not it is still symptomatic of your natural inclination.
    _________________________________________
    I was joking C@t. People asked me who I was going to go after next. The answer is no one.

  21. Scotty’s ministry to be announced over the coming days. Ken Wyatt will be Australia’s first Aboriginal person to hold the Aboriginal Affairs portfolio.

  22. It’s Time says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:13 pm

    …”Continual stories about excessive costs of school buildings; most proved unfounded. Hounding a Minister for shonky operators electrocuting their workers and calling him a murderer. Allowing Abbott to gain the upper hand by not calling a double dissolution over the greatest moral issue of our time. Weak options by Rudd which the opposition and MSM dined out on”…

    Thanks,
    This is an excellent example of why Labor keeps losing elections to people it presumes to be politically inferior and intellectually stunted.
    A decade later, still blaming EVERYONE else for its fuckups.

  23. nath:

    I was joking C@t. People asked me who I was going to go after next. The answer is no one.

    I’m surprised you’re not riffing continuously on the idea of Andrew Bolt and Kimberly Kitching seeking solace in each others arms – seems like your thing…

  24. I gather this is in response to the SmAge article Leroy posted earlier.

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    2h2 hours ago
    Just between us, SMH-Age always takes a polling breather after elections.

  25. E. G. Theodore
    says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:40 pm
    nath:
    I was joking C@t. People asked me who I was going to go after next. The answer is no one.
    I’m surprised you’re not riffing continuously on the idea of Andrew Bolt and Kimberly Kitching seeking solace in each others arms – seems like your thing…
    _____________________________________
    I think you’ve just raised that one…….don’t let me steal your thunder.

  26. nath @ #1677 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:33 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:32 pm
    nath @ #1673 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 10:28 pm
    that’s not fair C@t. Apart from Shorten I’ve rarely had a bad word to say about any ALP MPs. Oh, a few digs at Burke and Kitching, but that was very minor criticism.
    And now you are freely admitting to desiring to turn your attention to another Labor MP, whether you mean it or not it is still symptomatic of your natural inclination.
    _________________________________________
    I was joking C@t. People asked me who I was going to go after next. The answer is no one.

    I hope you hold fast to that promise. It’s obvious your intellectual capacity is such that you are capable of much more constructive contributions than those we have been regaled with thus far.

  27. Confessions says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 10:19 pm

    …”LOL at Bemused, still trying to dredge up old grievances, and under yet another sock puppet”…

    I am certainly not Bemused, nor am I particularly bemused by your suggestion.
    I do however, find it rather intriguing that you would jump to such a conclusion, the moment someone said anything critical of an argument made by you.

  28. It’ll be nice when Twitter and Facebook have been around for a few years and everyone will have stopped believing them.

    I think it’s just going to take a few years for society to catch up. We’ve been so used to believing stuff that has been published, that is taking us all time to adapt.

    Prompted by this

    “The video claims Selmayr said Northern Ireland was “the price to pay for Brexit”. Selmary has denied saying that, and Schinas said the claim was being “spread maliciously”.”

  29. Dodson may have been better but isn’t it fantastic that there is an indigenous person on both sides of politics that can take the portfolio.

    The greatest of The Australian’s crimes on Australia was it’s campaign against ATSIC. There was not a week that would go past without some headline against it, often just the same one updated or repackaged. Self determination is clearly the answer for all indigenous issues and the sooner something like ATSIC is brought back the better.

  30. nath:

    I think you’ve just raised that one…….don’t let me steal your thunder.

    I reckon it’s pretty funny that there’s a group of people who think it’s obvious that Andrew Bolt is secretly a socialist…,

    As for your next target Mike Freelander I suggest you go for it, since it’s obvious that anyone who’s spent 40 years delivering babies in Western Sydney (and all sorts of pro bono medical work) is up to no good and in it just for himself. People just need to get the truth: so will you teach them the truth and thus set them free?

  31. The most amusing thing I find here is the number of otherwise intelligent people that allow themselves to get played by Nath.

    Simple solution is to ignore, as I will any reply from mentioned poster.

    So Nath, make your retort a scathing one, as I will not respond.

    Consider yourself saved from an even more scathing response.

    Cheers!

  32. C@tMomma:

    It should have been Pat Dodson.

    What about Sen Dodson as Deputy Senate Leader?

    If it’s (as some have suggested):
    – Albo (NSW) – LOTO
    – Clare O’Neill (VIC) – Deputy
    – Andrew Chalmers (QLD) – Shadow Treasurer
    – Penny Wong (SA) – LOTO Senate
    then what is lacking is someone from WA (and TAS)…

    And I think that (non-racist) conservative older WA voters respect Sen Dodson (as they should) even if not voting for him. Respect for Kim Beazley probably added a point to ALP primary in WA even when he was not LOTO (and more than a point when he was)

  33. Been There:

    The most amusing thing I find here is the number of otherwise intelligent people that allow themselves to get played by Nath.

    Now come on – Nath is the centre of much of the amusement emanating from PB

    He’s the Colossus of Comedy…

    The Goliath of Guffaws…

    The Behemoth of Burlesque…

    And the Wunderkind of Witticism…

    All rolled into one pint sized package!

  34. Psyclaw says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 11:05 pm

    Not Sure

    …”Learn the rules mate.
    You are not allowed to criticise the important people here. The gatekeepers will be after you!”…

    I know the rules, but chose to ignore them.
    The warning is appreciated however.

    The dogged persistence of one particular (fairly) newcomer here, in the face of these “gatekeepers” as you call them, has inspired me to return after a very long period of lurking.

  35. Not Sure @ #1696 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 11:29 pm

    Psyclaw says:
    Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 11:05 pm

    Not Sure

    …”Learn the rules mate.
    You are not allowed to criticise the important people here. The gatekeepers will be after you!”…

    I know the rules, but chose to ignore them.
    The warning is appreciated however.

    The dogged persistence of one particular (fairly) newcomer here, in the face of these “gatekeepers” as you call them, has inspired me to return after a very long period of lurking.

    Return from being…?

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