The latest – or some of it at least:
• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.
• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.
• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.
• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.
nath has form regarding Chloe Shorten. They have tried to pimp her out more than once. nath is an utter lowlife.
@Nostradamus
As long as Albo is not seen sitting on the fence on Climate Change like in the way Corbyn is seen on Brexit. The ALP should be pretty competitive at the next election. If Albo is seen as such then I share your prediction. A low Labor vote could be matched by a high Greens one, so Albo could lose his seat as well. Since the Greens hold two state seats inside the Federal electorates he represents.
The value of avoiding a leadership ballot is that you avoid stories about how many of the caucus don’t support the leader, that the party membership doesn’t support them, or that they’re there despite not having support of the caucus etc. It is a way to manage the narrative. In the long run I don’t think any of that usually matters very much.
nath says:
Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 12:51 pm
Lars Von Trier
says:
Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 12:50 pm
So what shadow portfolio will Littlefinger pick up? My tip Defence – sufficient heft (with overseas trip) but out of the front line of the economic debate allows plenty of time to wait…
____________________
Shorten should be able to force his way onto the FB courtesy of the numbers he controls. But Albo should give him Consumer Affairs.
—————————-
Albo should give Littlefinger Shadow Minister for the NDIS and have him tour lots of group homes.
I think Chloe is a class act. I was making a slight joke about her leaving Bill for being a loser. But don’t get that get in the way of making me out to be a monster on very little evidence.
nath conversing with his sock puppet
the attention seeking addict looking for a bigger hit
sad
Some depressing news from Warrnambool courtesy of the Standard (the local paper)
Fonterra due to low milk supply / drought will close their Dennington plant at the end of November with the loss of 100 jobs and a massive knock on effect to Warrnambool and the region.
They have also not ruled out closing their Cobden plant or reducing production.
At the moment Dennington is at 30% capacity and has suffered from a significant drop in supply as farmers exit the industry and the effects of drought affect production.
Nath, I’m surprised you could lift your knuckles off the ground long enough to write that.
Chalmers having a lie down and a good cry after being told to pull out?
nath says:
Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 12:56 pm
You’re not a monster nath.
You’re just pathetic.
Barney in Saigon
says:
You’re not a monster nath.
You’re just pathetic.
______________
Maybe that’s true. I am watching all 83 of Bill’s Town Hall meetings just for laughs.
Ah BB, you were doing so well until that last paragraph!
touche nath!
Labor will change the narrative on the economy, the environment and the future. The Gs and their counter-weights, the Libs, will be equally irrelevant.
I see the flip and the fop are doing a double act today. Pathetic pissants that they are. Hey, nath and Lars von Trier, change your nom to P1 and P2 and at least be honest about that much!?!
Vogon Poet @ #1255 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 12:56 pm
They should just get a room, where the circle jerk will be complete.
C@tmomma
says:
They should just get a room, where the circle jerk will be complete.
______________________________
I’ll try anything at least once.
briefly @ #1250 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 12:53 pm
Yes, Mr Bowe, in the way of Neoliberalism, must be dependent of their money and afraid to bin them. P1 and P2, that is.
briefly @ #1258 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 1:04 pm
Albo may be able to change the economic narrative ONLY if Bill Shorten and the dolt are far away up on the backbench
nath @ #1266 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Your saying that has probably excited the fop no end.
Here’s how to pay for goodies
“Congestion busting needs to happen in the bureaucracy. I want to see some congestion busting in the bureaucracy, ensuring that we get things done.”
Public service cuts, here we come!
Exactly, Tricot. This isn’t a blog any more, it’s a bog. Full of shitposting.
Rex Douglas is one of the few on this venerable forum whose analysis was prescient.
Labor people do not like it when Greens fightback!
Magnificent!
Rick Wilson’s latest :
Pelosi’s Strategy Is Working, and Trump Is One Step Closer to Being F*cked
Democrats who want impeachment yesterday aren’t paying attention. Between McGahn, the ruling on taxes, and Cohen, the Resistance has had a banner week.
I’ve been a deep skeptic of impeachment as a political strategy, putting me solidly in the Nancy Pelosi go-slow camp. I’ve argued time and again that the smart play is IIABN: Impeachment in All but Name, but the great beast of Washington shambles ever forward, its ponderous, inexorable tread leading it toward the inevitable impeachment proceedings against Donald John Trump, 45th president of the United States.
“That smell? It’s Trump’s panicked flopsweat. Trump’s taxes are his kryptonite, and you can expect him to fight harder on this point than any other.”
The arc of this story is moving the right direction. Keep doing the things that work, Democrats. Impeachment is the end goal, not the first step, and you’re closing in.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pelosis-strategy-is-working-and-trump-is-one-step-closer-to-being-fcked?source=twitter&via=desktop
Davis Speers
He’s another egotist.
Yes, of course – just as the divorcee Wallace Simpson could not become Queen, so Albanese cannot become PM. It would be so unseemly, old chap.
My giddy aunt what a load of rubbish.
BB
The source of all prejudice is “I’ve seen members of this community behave this way, therefore it’s clear that all members of this community behave this way.”
Yes, some women use their looks to land a husband. Some Aborigines drink. Some African are in gangs. Etc.
But you should never use those facts to extrapolate out and say, “Therefore this woman, this Aborigine, this African…”
@lizzie
Anybody else raised their hands for the deputy leadership?
C@
nath clearly came to this blog with the intent of forcing lefties out of it. William has always seemed a bit embarrassed that this is seen as a leftie blog.
I’ve stuck around on the principle that leaving gives nath a win, but there are limits.
If someone’s prepared to start a blog where civil discussion is the order of the day – it doesn’t have to be left, but in my experience they’re the only people who allow that – I’ll chip in.
C@tmomma @ #1266 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 1:13 pm
If this blog becomes less of a Labor right echo chamber, that would be a good thing in my humble opinion.
Boerwar @ #1221 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 12:36 pm
Oh shut up Bore.
Jackol:
A sentiment usually economically rendered as tl;dr.
lizzie @ #1269 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 1:16 pm
He’s as bad a communicator as Shorten or the dolt.
Tristo
That’s the only one I’ve seen. Don’t even know if it’s true. 🙂
Meanwhile in Macquarie – 1298 votes left to count with a 148 deficit for Templeman. So very very close!
Magnificent!
phoenixRED
Trump’s tax returns and finances were always going to be his downfall.
zoomster
I can’t afford to chip in on any more blogs. I can only assume that nath is seen as witty, by some.
zoomster
says:
Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 1:19 pm
C@
nath clearly came to this blog with the intent of forcing lefties out of it. William has always seemed a bit embarrassed that this is seen as a leftie blog.
I’ve stuck around on the principle that leaving gives nath a win, but there are limits.
If someone’s prepared to start a blog where civil discussion is the order of the day – it doesn’t have to be left, but in my experience they’re the only people who allow that – I’ll chip in.
_____________________________
Can I come along? I’d really like a blog where BB doesn’t call my poor old mum an ugly slut.
I’m with you Zoomster.
nath and his Trier harder mate come to this site seemingly 24 hours a day, with the sole purpose of pissing people off.
Fortunately I have better things to do than read their self indulgent dross.
Rex Douglas @ #1279 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 1:19 pm
I cannot but agree. However, shitposting from Left or Right, or no point on the political spectrum at all, or from the fringes, or instead regurgitated from the bowels of 4chan or Gab, is still shitposting and not worthy of this blog.
Looking like ALP and Greens will have 37 of 76 seats in Senate.
Looks like the Greens have achieved complete political irrelevance.
Well done idiots. Enjoy your ideological purity.
If people think someone is a troll they could just… not respond to them. Not every provocative comment needs a response. Just see it as a bit of light comedy.
ltep
I don’t read Nath unless he is copied by others. But how could his constant insults possibly be mistaken for light comedy?
I find quite a lot of things he says to be very funny. Sometimes there has to be quite a creative angle to draw it back to being about Mr Shorten.
Itep
Sorry, I’ve tried the ignoring nath route.
And I don’t see why posters should have to put up with unprovoked personal attacks or misogyny.
I bet if nath had made a racist comment, the reaction here would have been very different.
How about we try a different approach – and more posters make it clear that there’s behaviour they won’t tolerate, even if it is ‘comedy’.
(Geez, how often have women been told to ‘lighten up, sweetheart, it’s just a joke – haven’t you got a sense of humour?”)
@slackboy72
There are the two Center Alliance Senators and Jackie Lambie, they could join Labor and the Greens in blocking some legislation. Since I don’t believe either Center Alliance and maybe Lambie will support say repealing the Medevac Bill.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/government-pushing-ahead-with-medevac-repeal-despite-senate-opposition
Itep
I wasn’t talking about attacks on Shorten. nath is obsessive and that’s just boring.
I was talking about an insinuation about Shorten’s wife.
zoomster @ #1289 Thursday, May 23rd, 2019 – 1:38 pm
I know it’s a difficult time now for Labor partisans but really, don’t you think you’re being a little precious ?
I’d really like a blog where BB doesn’t call my poor old mum an ugly slut.
But you think that this blog is okay with you saying Chloe Shorten should be pimped out to improve Bill’s lot in life?
Sounds like just the sort of blog sensible people should steer well clear of, and will if you keep that sort of thing up. Despite what others may or may not say about your mother.
Not that you really care what others think. You’re just another one of those Insane Clown Posse types that thinks there are no rules to respect. Except when you can use the ire you inspire in others after yet another of your shitcanning posts when their response goes too far. Like, obviously, the one you refer to from BB.
Do you honestly know how tiresome you, and now it seems Lars von Trier, are? You will eventually drive enough of the sensible posters, Left or Right of the political spectrum, away from this blog and Mr Bowe’s income will go into a death spiral. We have plenty of other places to go on the internet, not particularly Left echo chambers either, just where the adults go to talk about politics and where the moderation weeds people like you and Lars von Trier out.
If you two want to turn this place into a shitcan blog where puerile commentary is the order of the day, then you are going the right way about it. You may be happy with that but I don’t know if Mr Bowe will be when he sees his revenue stream collapse because no one is interested in reading what a couple of wankers has to say.
Of course it is poor taste, but what do you expect?
I do find it rich that a Greens supporter would be a defender of sexist humour, given the outrage shown by the Greens in very recent history to comments made about Greens politicians. Applying double standards is rarely a good thing if you’re trying to be taken seriously.