Of swings and misses

The Coalition’s parliamentary majority looks secure, as the polling industry starts facing up to what went wrong.

The latest – or some of it at least:

• It is now reckoned beyond doubt that the Liberals have held on in Chisholm, thereby guaranteeing a parliamentary majority of at least 76 seats out of 151. As related in the latest update in my late counting post, I think it more likely than not that they will supplement that with Macquarie and Bass, and wouldn’t write them off quite yet in Cowan. You are encouraged to use that thread to discuss the progress of the count, and to enjoy the reguarly updated results reporting facility while you’re about it.

• If you only read one thing about the collective failure of the opinion polls, make it Kevin Bonham’s comprehensive account. If you only read two, or don’t have quite that much time on your hands, a brief piece by Professor Brian Schmidt in The Guardian is worth a look.

• The three major polling companies have each acknowledged the issue in one way or another, far the most searching example of which is a piece in The Guardian by Peter Lewis of Essential Research. A statement released yesterday by Ipsos at least concedes there may be a problem with over-sampling of the politically engaged, but Monday’s offering by David Briggs of YouGov Galaxy in The Australian was defensive to a fault.

• Note the guest post below this one from Adrian Beaumont on tomorrow’s European Union elections in Britain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,724 comments on “Of swings and misses”

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  1. Itep – Labor now has three years to explain its franking credits policy. It looks like it didn’t have a big effect anyway. What really hurt Labor was the scare campaign against renewables, closing coal mines, economic change in its heart-land. Maybe the revenue raising money should be directed straight into those seats (pork, pork and more pork) rather than cancer treatment, etc etc.

  2. @lizzie

    If the 2018-19 component of the tax cuts are to be paid in installments by the ATO, that would be a considerable economic stimulus, similar to the cash bonuses which the Rudd government gave out when the Global Financial Crisis started.

    The Morrison government will do as much as possible to keep the economy growing, by this sort of stimulus and allow private sector to go even higher. The later is utterly insane in my opinion, since the government should be looking at policies (such as running up considerable public sector deficits and debt) to decrease private sector debt, which is a problem for the country.

  3. Albanese would be in bind if he walked too far away from action on climate change. He has a decent majority. But that would evaporate very fast if he backpedaled on climate change. The greens would eat him alive.
    I wonder why Tony Burke doesn’t want to run. Not even any mutterings about that.

  4. beguiledagain @ #40 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 7:40 am

    Yes. I was wondering whether Murdoch’s gang support Albo because they have something on him that they can pull out at the opportune moment (a couple of days before the next election).

    My personal preference, based on his strong performance in the HoR is Tony Burke. He looks like the kind of pit bull that Labor need to counter the thugs on the other side of the chamber. Albo, while he has the experience, doesn’t have Burke’s quickness on his feet, physical stature or I feel, the charisma to make him a household word.

    But spare me.

    All this crap about letting the Liberal agenda go through! After what the Coalition did to Labor in the election, the Party should take no prisoners.

    With a razor-thin majority, they have no mandate for anything. Nope, nope and nope. Grind the bastards down, beat them at their dirty game and keep reminding the voters what an extraordinarily ordinary gang they are, led by the failed adman from the Shire.

    I’ve said it before but “nice guys finish last,” as we have just learned.

    Re Albo – I’m of (at least) two minds. A majority of our compatriots fear and reject anything that can be misconstrued as intellectualism by the venal spivs who buy and sell us. An intransigent attack dog with few pretensions to superiority (like Albo) might be just what the anti-doctor ordered. The Murdorcs might play along, particularly as the looming recession bites and the Empty Ad Man fails to deliver. Too few of we butt-hurt “elites” are going to benefit to maintain the illusion for another cycle, and the insecure bigots of the Right are going to continue to overreach, because that’s what they do. I’m beginning to like the idea of Albo as the figurehead – and Penny Wong as the eminence grise. If we’re really lucky, we could pull a reverse Haydon when the Murdorcs pull down Albo. Penny for secret PM.

  5. Tristo @ #47 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 8:00 am

    @Radguy

    Legalizing weed would be a very tough proposition in Australia, many Baby Boomers here are anti-drugs. If the federal Labor party proposed something like that, the Liberals would not hesitate to launch a scare campaign.

    It is noteworthy that a state Coalition government got re-elected by opposing testing of pills at music festivals, along with having implemented the lock-out laws. One Nation under the leadership of Mark Latham won 6.9% of the vote and got two legislative councilors elected, supporting the same stances.

    Well then you’d be wrong. Labor, at least in NSW, openly preferenced HEMP on their HTVs last weekend and no one batted an eyelid.

    I think they elected Marky Mark and Our Gladys for other reasons than their opposition to drugs.

  6. antonbruckner11 @ #55 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 8:14 am

    Labor starts waving through tax cuts for the rich, I’ll be voting Green.

    Maybe you’d be better off informing yourself first rather than getting butthurt and going off half-cocked to The Greens.

    I have informed myself and have found that the reason Labor are having to think about passing the elite’s tax cuts (and can we stop all the ‘Top End of Town’ palaver, Labor?), is because Morrison is doing the Omnibus Bill wedge on them:

    It means a tax showdown looms in the Parliament, with the Treasurer signalling that he will combine tax cuts for low and middle income earners of $1080 in planned legislation along with cuts for higher income earners.

    That’s designed to force Labor and the cross bench to support the Liberals’ $77 billion tax cuts for the rich – or risk denying tax relief now for workers earning under $126,000.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/21/tax-cuts-labor-liberal/

    Now, what would you do if you were in their shoes?

  7. antonbruckner11

    I don’t want Labor to wave anything through without explaining why. I want them to fight with negativity, like Abbott did.

  8. Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski

    Hey ScoMo. Your income tax cuts will flatten the tax structure. How can we afford to tax capital income at highly concessionary rates, pay for massive income tax cuts, particularly for higher income earners, and at the same time pay for an ageing population?
    Pray for a miracle?

  9. Interesting to see some posters jumping up and down about how bad Shorten is for “ interfering “ in the leadership process.

    The backgrounding from “ sources “ to the media about Shorten would be coming from the Albanese camp. Remember the backgrounding before the Batman by election ? Remember the backgrounding from labor “ sources “ before Super Saturday claiming Shorten was gone etc etc ? Where did that come from ? Albanese and his mob.

    I have not read or heard one statement from Shorten or seen anything in the media from his supporters backgrounding against Albanese since Saturday. Dead silence. The only noise is coming from the Albanese side.

    Albanese is a fraud. Here is a tip. The sun dies not really shine out of his arse.

    At this point I do not care who leads the labor party. The process will flow and whoever is successful then so be it.

    Enough from me for a few months.

  10. If Albanese wants to win, his best strategy may well be to act as of he already is LOTO anf just keep doing pressers criticising the government. Internally his pitch can be that he’s the only one with “cut through” and name recognition. Don’t know about the factional side though. Starting to wonder whether Shorten’s magic unifying touch only works when everyone is united behind what he wants.

  11. Yes, Anthony Albanese is not the messiah for Labor. He will never be Prime Minister. Maybe use him as a burner leader. That’s all I’d ever consider.

    Not that I fancy Chris Bowen either.

  12. How far in advance can the tax bill legislate for? I’m assuming the Liberals will package the full “third tranche” of obscenely inequitable tax cuts into it as well?

  13. Labor don’t get “burner” leaders any more, remember? They’re meant to be choosing someone to take them to the next election

  14. shiftaling @ #64 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 8:31 am

    Labor don’t get “burner” leaders any more, remember? They’re meant to be choosing someone to take them to the next election

    I don’t mean he should be dumped mid-term but I think, if chosen to be LOTO, then Albanese will lead Labor to another defeat. Then the real leader to take us forward should be chosen.

  15. PeeBee

    I’m sick to death of this strong economy nonsense. Also the adoration of a surplus as proof of something or other. Also the supposed efficiency of privatisation, where the public pays more for the profiteers to gain. Perhaps my heart is just sick.

  16. Electorates that swung harder to the Liberal and National parties are more likely to have higher unemployment, lower income, lower levels of education and fewer migrants, according to a Guardian Australia analysis.

    Ah, so Labor loses because the people their policies would actually benefit most swung against them. Lies and fear FTW!

  17. Doyley – Your perspective on Albanese is interesting. I’ve got very serious doubts about him and do worry he’s a fraud (“I fight tories …” Hah). On the other hand, I think we need a leader who can bullshit Labor into office. Is he a flexible man with firm underlying principles, or just flexible.

  18. Labor can’t afford defeatism. The country needs a viable opposition now ffs.

    It’s funny that for all of the much vaunted “depth of talent” on the front bench people are now talking about throwing the next election because they don’t like the candidates.

  19. “Conclusion: the less wealthy, less educated, and/or the insecure, frightened of losing their jobs, look to the Coalition to save them (they believe them better at managing the economy).”

    Nah. The ALP had a couple of major perceived policies – tax increases and closing coal – that were viewed as worker unfriendly.

    Just because those policies didn’t exist doesn’t really matter. Their actual policies could be spun that way.

  20. The Kevin Bonham article linked in William’s post is a fascinating read.

    Whilst Labor’s loss has been bitterly disappointing, it is hardly as if the coalition’s position is impregnable. It has a small absolute majority, but it wasn’t a landslide.

    The coalition still has issues, most notably its lack of ideas and appalling lack of depth in its front bench. I’m not sure that’s improved one iota after May 18th.

    Labor also faces serious issues around how to develop policies in opposition. There are obvious constraints for oppositions due to their relative lack of resources compared to Governments. Its finding the “better way” that needs to be Labor’s focus over the next 12 months or so.

    It is often said that good policy is good politics. But that is only true up to a point. If a policy is complex and nuanced, it can be easily misrepresented. Removing franking credit rorts = retiree tax. Reducing negative gearing abuse = higher rents.

    So, we are left with a government with no plan, no vision and no talent for the next 3 years. The opportunity is all Labor’s.

  21. It just has to be Albo. Bowen is seriously being considered?? Tradies, bogans, grannies and super low information voters have to swing to labor next election and they are not voting for Bowen.

    Lib lite won with Rudd because Howard well and truly overstayed his welcome and jumped the shark with workchoices. Morrison wont be in that position in 3 years time.

    The optics need to be of Albo drinking beer with mine workers for 3 years, and regularly going off his head at Morrison in an unpolished way. For the love of all thats good and holy get Albo in there.

  22. Goll: “Labor should be thankful that the bogans have moved to Morrison, very Cronulla, no longer poor, access to education, good schools and community support together with a loyalty akin to the thin veneer of fibro, the once often used moniker for the group.
    Bogan has become a widespread malaise, most notably associated with hi-viz and hi-lux.”

    These comments are symptomatic of an attitude I’ve noticed among many Labor supporters over the past few decades, including on this forum.

    As far as I can work out, they are deeply committed to the party of the workers, but they’d prefer that it distance itself as far as possible from actual workers.

    I have observed this tendency in the past: eg, the intense hatred for that “flash trash” Bob Hawke I used to encounter among committed Labor people (they all love him now, but, from about 1986, they were all hankering for him to be replaced by that nice, cultured Keating). And more recently, all the Rudd-lovers who used to tell me that Gillard was a moron because of her accent. (At least her accent was real: how many dairy farmers’ sons from Eumundi who went to the local high school grew up to talk like Kevvy?)

    I guess the 2pp swings to Labor on Saturday in every inner city and leafy suburban seat around the country are indicative of the party’s long-term trajectory.

    Unfortunately for Labor, the majority of voters don’t live in the wealthier suburbs. You can rail against them all you like, call them bogans, or morons or whatever. But if you want your party ever to get back into government, you are going to need to persuade a lot of them to vote for you. Not to mention the Chinese and other aspirational migrant groups.

    And rule number one with these groups is that they don’t much like paying tax and they particularly don’t like seeing their taxes redistributed to people who they don’t consider to have worked or tried hard enough to support themselves. I’m afraid that that’s what ordinary Australians are like – not the inner city trendies and the doctors’ wives in the leafy suburbs – but the ones who determine elections. If you don’t like it, try finding a different hobby to politics.

  23. Outsider……..concur…………….it is not doom and gloom for Labor……….However, scant attention – as yet – has been focused on the that fact that the Primary Vote for both Labor and the LNP – has been ebbing away since about 2010 but the look of it. I doubt whether Labor of itself will see a 40+ PV and the LNP are reaching the bottom end of the 40s – and struggling to do that. As Palmer has demonstrated, the political scene is fracturing and there is plenty of fertile ground for fringe outfits – on both left and right – to make hay.
    At the end of the day Labor must quickly and efficiently find a new leader – for the next election – not the one after as some quitters are suggesting, find set of fairly straight forward policies that have to do with jobs, jobs and jobs……………..then flog this, flog the Government – and make it relentless.
    The day is over when Labor can be all things to all people. It did not start out as a political party like this and there is no future in it.
    A tall order but it is either that or slip into some kind of Great Britain mentality – “Gee, we were great – once”…………………….

  24. I see Abbott’s being touted as ambassador to the Holy See. I wonder what HH would think of a man who gave a character reference to a convicted paedophile?

  25. Good morning all.
    Thanks BK for your roundup.

    My opinion (the usual zero value) Tony Burke and wave nothing through – oppose everything – question the date – the time. Fuggem – yesterday, today and forever. If the assholes pass the flat tax it will never be undone.

    And now – ladeez and gennermuns

    a little comfort food for those who aren’t hungry.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/voraciously/wp/2019/05/21/what-makes-this-grilled-zucchini-dish-so-delightful-contradictions/?utm_term=.b4f9280d08d9
    https://outline.com/9gE3K5

    This is a dish chock-full of contradictions, which might not exactly make it sound like something you’d want to try. But bear with me.

    Its flavor base relies on the ginger and garlic combination so widely used in our favorite cuisines, yet the recipe does not neatly fit into an Indian, Mediterranean or Chinese playbook. It tastes light and refreshing, yet rich, thanks to olive oil and yogurt. Marinating is involved, but nobody has to sit around or rearrange their spices; the zucchini is sliced so thin that by the time you compose plates and fry the eggs — yep, this is one of those put-an-egg-on-it meals, suitable for breakfast or brunch as well — dinner’s done.

    🍳🍛 ☮

  26. I’ve been banging on about this for three days now so I’m pleased to see someone has caught up. Good article from Malcolm Farr about how (a) the Libs’ primary vote was completely woeful, and (b) the swing against Labor was smaller. Obviously Morrison was a political genius and Shorten was a complete dud.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/raw-voting-figures-reveal-the-real-losers-in-saturdays-shock-election/news-story/8401c6ad677fae3ca6af0bd9a6ce161d

  27. Radguy

    but both parties in the regions note the volume of money generated by the coal industry because it provides an illusory notion of individuals in these regions contributing to the nations wealth

    Been thinking about this since reading it. Radguy, would be interested if you could expand on this point? Especially illusory vs real?

  28. Joe @ #78 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 8:51 am

    It just has to be Albo. Bowen is seriously being considered?? Tradies, bogans, grannies and super low information voters have to swing to labor next election and they are not voting for Bowen.

    Lib lite won with Rudd because Howard well and truly overstayed his welcome and jumped the shark with workchoices. Morrison wont be in that position in 3 years time.

    The optics need to be of Albo drinking beer with mine workers for 3 years, and regularly going off his head at Morrison in an unpolished way. For the love of all thats good and holy get Albo in there.

    I’m sure you’re right. But I’m not sure you could call Rudd “lib-lit”. He was, in his gawky way, working-class aspirational. He was the kid who sat in the front row of the Public School classroom and swotted to get ahead. Working class voters understood him in that sense.

  29. @WB

    The coalition don’t have a majority and they don’t yet have 76 seats declared. Kevin Hogan sits on the crossbench.

    With the assumption that the coalition supplies a speaker, they have 74, with 74 on the crossbench and 2 seats undeclared. In order to have a majority in a sense that allows them to pass legislation if the opposition and crossbench oppose, they need to win both Macquarie and bass.

  30. Zoomster – The Sainted Gough could also be spectacularly rude and nasty. I don’t care who Albanese shouts at, in private.

  31. Another item that caught my attention from The Washington Post.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/antivaxxers-go-viral-in-communities-battling-measles/2019/05/20/a476417c-78d7-11e9-bd25-c989555e7766_story.html?utm_term=.bd0a4cf2f7dd
    https://outline.com/Z5bLqb

    I get quite a few of items such as this turning up on my Mini Tablet.

    MONSEY, N.Y. — In a suburban shopping center an hour north of New York City, hundreds of mostly ultra-Orthodox Jews gathered in a sex-partitioned ballroom to hear leaders of the national anti-vaccine movement.

    Sustained applause greeted Del Bigtree, a former television producer-turned-activist who often wears a yellow star of David, similar to those required of Jews in Nazi Germany, to show solidarity with parents ordered to keep unvaccinated children at home.

    Bigtree described the purported dangers of childhood vaccines in phrases that also conjured the Nazis.

    “They have turned our children into the largest human experiment in history — all of history,” he said.

    “I love doctors,” Ethan said, but they have “blind obedience” to the vaccine schedule. “God gave us a wonderful, beautiful body that heals itself.”

    An interesting article showing some of the ways that misinformation and lies are spread to the detriment of those seeking to protect their families.

    Hark ❗
    Q — Is that someone at the door wanting to do my vacuuming for me ❓
    A— No ❗

    Dammit. 😇

  32. Tommy that article is pretty selective in what it compares. More relevant the Coalition vote fell 0.5% and Labor’s vote fell 0.9%. Just using the Liberal vote and ignoring the LNP and Nats just gives a distorted view of the situation.

    There was a swing against the establishment to minor parties which is the real story from the election. Unless both majors deal with that situation I can see more elections like the one we just had. Neither side will be comfortable about winning until we see where the preferences flow.

  33. From the Guardian ..

    “Penny Wong, meanwhile, is coming out publicly in support of Anthony Albanese this morning.

    Tony Burke also looks like backing Albanese.

    No one knows if Jim Chalmers will add his name to the ballot contenders, or if he’ll push for deputy.”

  34. Actually the article was factually incorrect, probably deliberately , in claiming the Liberals enjoyed preference support from the LNP. No LNP preferences flowed to the Liberals. Any analysis that ignores Lib/LNP/Nats is anything other than a Coalition is flawed.

  35. “a state Coalition government got re-elected by opposing testing of pills at music festivals, along with having implemented the lock-out laws”

    Come off it, these were sub issues, the ALP didn’t campaign on pill testing and ran with a seriously unimpressive leader.

    “One Nation under the leadership of Mark Latham won 6.9% of the vote and got two legislative councilors elected, supporting the same stances.”

    I’m not sure where in my comment I implied their votes were up for grabs. These are the ones who need to be exposed for their intolerance and insularity. That’s what this division can do. It’s a division that actually matters in social situations and they don’t know how to handle reasonable debate or deal with anyone who refuses to be guilted about their pastimes.

    In short, you embarrass the hell out of them, make them lose their cool, make them bring out an ugliness that’s highly visible to those who value their own personal sovereignty.

  36. Bowen will forever be damaged by the franking credits debacle, which was his own creation!
    It’s got to be Albo, although why Jason Clare isn’t in the conversation is a mystery to me, because I think he’s got some good cut through and performs well in the media.
    And if Albo does get the gig, he’ll be spending a lot of the next 3 years in Central and Northern Qld.

  37. antonbruckner11
    says:
    Wednesday, May 22, 2019 at 9:09 am
    Zoomster – The Sainted Gough could also be spectacularly rude and nasty. I don’t care who Albanese shouts at, in private.
    ___________________________
    Albo probably didn’t pay enough respect to Zoomster. Nor acknowledge her pivotal role in policy development in Victoria.

  38. Douglas and Milko @ #8 Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019 – 3:46 am

    Radguy

    First up, legalise weed. Note the sky hasn’t fallen in in the US where it’s happened. That should convince those who might be hesitant. There are a lot of weed smokers and they are or mix with this demographic (bogans). They would campaign for this freely and from a view of challenging the right wing authoritarians as to why they should pay for the reactionaries whims, noting the price in tax and the price of such an unproductive aspect of society and the real losses we incur by obstructing weed smokers from full participation in society through many means including refusing them jobs they may do better than others. Having these conversations out might wreck a few barbecues, but at least it will show how unpleasant the authoritarian urges of the right are.

    Could not agree more. Legalise it! If it is a problem for som e people, this is a health problem, not as criminal problem.

    Also, “bogans” may be proud and out weed smokers, but my experience of a fairly wealthy and educated demographic suggests that many people indulge. There are al lot of jokes about which bottle in the herbs and spices rack you keep your weed in.

    Prohibition is a demonstrable failure. Portugal and Colorado (among others) have led the way with legalisation, which equals half minimisation.

    As usual, I gave my second preference in the senate to The Australian Hemp Party.

    Add my voice to the above.

    Let’s just look at it from a purely economic perspective, dollars and cents.

    First we’ll look at it as it is.

    Billions of dollars are being sucked out of the economy and being wasted on “laura norder”. As pointed out above, Prohibition has never worked anywhere. It just drives it all underground. There will always be a demand for the “product”, and as long as that demand exists, someone will supply it. At the moment the suppliers are criminal enterprises. These enterprises will never pay a cent of tax on the obscene profits they make. A double whammy of money flowing out of the economy.

    Here’s what legalising it would do. First off it can only be grown by licensed, accredited growers (much the same way that medicinal cannabis is). No-one with any connection to organised, or even disorganised crime will be granted a license. BOOM! Drug barons are instantly out of business.

    Then there’s money flowing back into the real economy and Tax Office from a combination of:

    Licensing fees for both growers, processors, and retail outlets;

    Taxes being collected at both the wholesale and retail levels via-
    -Workers employed by the growers paying PAYG tax;
    -Corporate tax being paid by the growers on the obscene profit margins they make;
    -Both corporate tax and PAYG from the employees of the licensed retail outlets;

    GST, and “sin taxes” similar to booze and ciggies on top of the above.

    KA-CHING!!!! KA-CHING!!!! KA-CHING!!!! KA-CHING!!!! KA-CHING!!!!

    From a purely economic point of view, legalising it is a complete no-brainer.

    Oh yeah, it would also virtually eliminate any police/politician corruption as the kickbacks and bribes paid to them by the drug barons would completely dry-up.

    Uruguay has done it. Canada has done it. Various states in the US have done it. New Zealand looks set to do it next year. But as always, Australia will be one of the last to ever do it, if it does at all.

    Furthermore, say if you’re a tourist who likes the occasional joint. Where is a more attractive destination for you? Uruguay, Canada, some US states, and potentially New Zealand or backwards Australia? Another no-brainer.

  39. As for Bill Shorten, the best thing he could do for the Labor Party would be to quit parliament midway through this term of government, and a few others who’ve been there too long, like Anthony Bryne and Chris Hayes, should retire too.
    And candidate selection is something that should be addressed in the next 3 years, I wonder if some of the much touted candidates in marginal Liberal seats were really that good to start with. Surely the likes of Anne Charlton and Des Hardman can’t run for a third straight election?

  40. “Been thinking about this since reading it. Radguy, would be interested if you could expand on this point? Especially illusory vs real?”

    Illusory as in that the contribution is almost like they made the coal themselves, rather than just happen to live near a type of rock that’s easy to put on a boat.

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