Some notable links and developments, as the Coalition inches closer towards a parliamentary majority in the latest counting:
• A few bugs remain to be ironed out, but I now have an regularly updated election results reporting facility in business that provides, among other things, booth results and swings in a far more accessible format than anything else on the market. If you would like to discuss the facility or the progress of the count in general, you are encouraged to do so on the late counting thread.
• Samantha Maiden at The New Daily has obtained the full gamut of tracking polling conducted for Labor throughout the campaign, which is something I can never recall being made public before. The overall swing shown at the end of the campaign is of 1.5% to Labor, just like the published polls were saying. The polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, as indeed was much of the published polling during the campaign, this being the organisation responsible for Newspoll and the polls commissioned by the News Corp tabloids.
• Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has produced fabulously revealing maps showing the distribution of two-party swings.
• Ladbrokes (no doubt among others) has a book open on the Labor leadership, which, with the withdrawal of Tanya Plibersek, has Anthony Albanese a clear favourite on $1.28, Jim Chalmers on $3.00, Chris Bowen on $5.50 and Tony Burke on $10.
And I should also point out that I also enjoy reading the commentary of conservative US columnists such as Jennifer Rubin, Max Boot, George Will, Rick Wilson, Tom Nicholls and many others. Unfortunately Australia does not have the breadth of actual conservative commentators worth giving time to because most of the right-wing media personalities here are predominantly News Ltd partisan hacks.
It’s why a PvO or a Niki Savva stand out for me.
Who cares? Twitter is an echo chamber.
So, for the next three years everyone on this blog is going to minutely scrutinise every blow the parties throw at each other, as if it matters a damn. All that will matter is the last few weeks of the next election campaign when the ignorant start to switch on. Then it will be about who tells the most lies and how people are doing financially. Voters won’t give a stuff if Labor is obstructive for the next three years or not. They won’t even notice. That’s why Labor should oppose everything that is not progressive, full stop. Otherwise they will have no revenue to play with if they do, miraculously, get back into office. The Labor MPs should go on a holiday until then. So should we all, for that matter.
Jackol “His siding with Ian McDonald to keep him in the NSW upper house when the slightest bit of good judgment should have told Albo that McDonald should have been moved on.”
OK, but how relevant would that be outside of NSW ?
Down here in Victoria, noones heard of this McDonald bloke, doesn’t he flip hamburgers ?
+1
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 7:58 pm
Really?
We’d never have guessed!
I wouldn’t know what you are saying because personal as soon as I see one of your childish names I skip to the next comment.
Jackol
says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 8:01 pm
Since PB now seems to be all-in on the Albo love, I’ll put what I consider Albo’s biggest baggage out there:
His siding with Ian McDonald to keep him in the NSW upper house when the slightest bit of good judgment should have told Albo that McDonald should have been moved on.
__________________________
Perhaps, but McDonald had yet to do what he was later charged with doing. This was before he became an agent of Obeid and was known in ALP circles as Obeid’s “left testicle”.
ABC ‘Conversations’ today was a repeat of Richard Fidler interviewing Bob Hawke in 2015. I only caught the last ten minutes but Hawke at age 85 was brilliant.
The part I heard was him saying that terrorism was a product of extremism and fanaticism and not restricted to Muslims. He also said that climate change was proven beyond doubt and action needed to be taken.
Conversations is apparently available on podcast.
The Lib-kin do not see themselves as instruments of the Lib-Libs. They object to the thought that might be. But by their campaigns against Labor they serve the same ends as the Lib-Libs. They might as well be Libs for all the difference it makes.
They intend to procure the defeat of Labor. They’re Libs.
Barney in Saigon @ #856 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:10 pm
The worst aspect of it is the implied assumption that the Labor Party is the One Truth Faith and the Fount of all Knowledge and all other progressive voices are apostates and heretics. If that is the attitude of Labor Party members, no wonder it lost the last election.
If the equivalence is Democrats appearing on Fox News then this is false. No person who religiously watches Sky After Dark or who listens to Alan Jones or that rabid ex taxi driver boofhead colleague of his will be persuaded by Labor people being interviewed by them. Sky News has a very small viewership, unlike Fox News which is America’s largest cable news outlet. Its audience share outnumbers CNN, something I was shocked to learn recently. So there would appear to be value in Democrats appearing on Fox.
I’m not in Victoria so have no idea who listens to 3AW, but one PBer who regularly does is Darn, and I can recall him posting about having heard Labor MPs appearing on their morning program.
Labor’s opponents come in all guises.
WTF is a lib-kin or a lib-lib?!
Confessions :”If the equivalence is Democrats appearing on Fox News then this is false. No person who religiously watches Sky After Dark or who listens to Alan Jones or that rabid ex taxi driver boofhead colleague of his will be persuaded by Labor people being interviewed by them. Sky News has a very small viewership, unlike Fox News which is America’s largest cable news outlet. Its audience share outnumbers CNN, something I was shocked to learn recently. So there would appear to be value in Democrats appearing on fox”
The point is that the ALP need to win over the “bogan” (for want of a better term) type.
Sure, they can have a leader that appeals to just those who listen to RRR or ABC (not that Albo also appears on those stations) then they are not going to widen their appeal much beyond what it is now
Confessions @ #845 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 6:02 pm
Forgive me. I didn’t mean to lash out at you, despite the fact I obviously did. Like a lot of others on here I’m not in a good place at the moment. That is no excuse though, and I unreservedly apologise.
My original point though that all the “experts” in the media should’ve been aware that they promised tax cuts were never going to eventuate. In fact, some of them were and asked the #LiarFromTheShire about it and blithely accepted his assurances that she’d be right, and to trust him.
Once again, please accept my apologies and focus on the first bit of my original comment as highlighted in this post.
@Confessions
3AW is popular Melbourne radio station, it would certainly have more people listening to it in Melbourne, than those who watch Sky After Dark (which is a echo chamber for the hard right in my opinion).
Truly amazing. Nobody thought to mention this before the election. Giving Morrison cover to drop another promise?
The worst aspect of it is the implied assumption that the Labor Party is the One Truth Faith and the Fount of all Knowledge and all other progressive voices are apostates and heretics. If that is the attitude of Labor Party members, no wonder it lost the last election.
I’ve never made this absurd claim.
I’ve simply been making the point that the Gs campaign against Labor all the damned time. They are an anti-Labor outfit. This is very obvious, yet very many fail to see it. In this election, they set out to procure Labor’s defeat in Queensland. They succeeded – or, at the very least, assisted the LNP/PALMER/ON project. Queensland is now a No-man’s land for Labor.
I think in fairness they should be congratulated for their success. They got what they wanted. Labor have been beaten.
Fletch @ #863 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:20 pm
No…please don’t encourage him. The Labor vs. Greens crap only ever benefits the Coalition. 🙁
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 6:24 pm
…”to be fair, it;s quite misleading to describe the Gs as ‘left’. They are not left. They play tag with the Lib-Libs to keep labor out of power. They are Libs in drag”…
Can you name a single policy position of the Green’s that would put them to the “right” of Labor?
It is fairly obvious just listening to Di Natale that he campaigns against Labor, even at the risk of helping to elect a Liberal government.
In this I think you are correct.
If you also listen to Green’s supporters here, most of whom have are utterly devoid of subtlety, they desire weak Labor government’s that they can manipulate to leverage a greater say than should be commensurate with their current vote share and representation in parliament.
But so what? The National’s have this down to a fine art.
What should genuinely concern you, as it does me, is the Green’s long term aim of replacing Labor as the dominant party of the left, and how to stop that from happening.
But if attempting to appease them doesn’t work, and attacking them has precisely the opposite effect to the one you desire, perhaps it’s time to forget all this “libling” “lib-lib” nonsense you constantly crap on with, and simply ignore them.
Then focus on the real enemy.
Because inspite of them barely scraping a win on Saturday, they are the ones who are deeply fractured, they are the ones splintering all to hell and back, and they are the ones who are nearly broken.
Their own moderate faction just staged a fairly successful external coup, straight under their noses, and I am convinced this will continue.
Their greatest warrior was just de-throned by someone they idiotically thought to be a Labor, leftist plant, and the extreme right are falling like lemmings off a cliff.
They are incapable of governing, and it is your responsibility (and mine) to do our part in smashing them into a thousand tiny little pieces.
It can and must be done.
Maybe then, the Green’s will revert to the simple nuisance value they had in the past.
Oh, and we should no longer stand in the way of the bleeding coal mine, stand well back and watch their silly green heads explode.
citizen @ #867 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:22 pm
Well, not precisely nobody. I described the policy using similar adjectives, at least. Having the government guarantee a portion of someone’s home loan costs nothing and gains almost nothing.
Fletch @ #863 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:20 pm
Briefly’s attempt to dehumanise the greens.
Fletch….it’s a bit of innovative word-use.
The Gs are the Libs’ siblings, or kin…at least in my book. They campaign against Labor. They aim to defeat Labor. They are Quasi-Libs, to be contrasted with all the other Libs…the Blue-Libs, the Yella-Libs, the Orange-Libs…and so on. Labor is surrounded by Libs of various hues…
The Gs dislike the term. I couldn’t give a rats about that.
Diogenes- I think from memory you are a Dr so will you understand all this.
I recently had a ct scan, mri, ct pet and lymph node needle biopsy at a large suburban radiology clinic all bulk billed.
I did get referred for the mri and pet via a private specialist but with no insurance she assured me that if anything showed up she would put through the public system and as a category one patient things would move quickly.
All up I was out of pocket about two hundred dollars for the specialist consultation.
Stan Grant is the worst Drum host that I’ve seen. He isn’t moderating he is hectoring.
Confessions @ #816 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 5:29 pm
Such is the dilemma for Labor. Wave Coalition policies through knowing people will get hurt, or block them, prevent the worst of the hurt and get no credit whatsoever from voters next time around.
The Coalition won. Let it rule and let people judge them on their actions and the impacts of those actions.
I know what you’re saying, even though I have no idea what RRR is. I just dispute your view that Labor needs a boofhead type leader in order to achieve this. The very real risk in appealing to a niche bogan vote, is that you lose the sizeable middle ground vote represented by non-bogan, swinging voters.
And who knows? Maybe Albanese can deliver this, but I’ve stated quite clearly that he doesn’t appeal to me, and the reasons he doesn’t. You can take that or leave it, I really don’t care.
lizzie @ #763 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 5:52 pm
To which the right response is that there are some in his party who hate non-heteros like him, and want to keep them third class citizens, or worse. Does that make it Liberal party policy?
Fuck politeness. Greasy smirking spivs like Wilson need to have their cheap sophistry shoved straight back down their throats, and in front of the cameras.
Over to you, Labor….
Labor have to stand up for their values in the Parliament. This is indisputable.
It’s much easier to rant and rave about the Greens then to reflect on the fact that Chris Bowen is what passes for leadership-caliber Labor Party talent. Sort yourselves out, for real.
Dan G:
I’m not at all offended, nor do I perceive being lashed out at by your comment.
I’m a fan of PvO. Others are not. Such is life.
It’s all good!
I can confirm I am indeed the one and only Truthy.
This election is a reminder that what is happening in the bubble of the establishment isn’t what is happening out here in the real world. Those who control information, control power. But the internet is decentralising information and that’s a huge threat for the media, the polling companies and the political elites who are used to calling the shots holding absolute power(information) and telling us who and who we aren’t allowed to vote for and what the “reality” is. It’s not so much that the lying has changed… they’ve been doing it for decades, it’s just we no longer believe it and worse.. and the scariest of all for the media is we can actually check if they are lying through websites like Youtube, because video is absolute and now everyone has camera phones. We get the media’s “truth” and then we get what actually happened on full unedited and damning video of the actual events.(See Covington kids for great example)
Now you might ask what any of this has to do with elections. Well what we are now experiencing in the world can only be described as an information revolution… people are reclaiming the truth and as such are rejecting the absolute lies we are being told everyday by these charlatans who push their ideological agenda in the media. Finally the people are taking the power back from the establishment and it terrifies them. Trump nor Farage care any longer what the media say about them… they can talk directly to their audience through the internet and even with the nastiest smear campaigns in history against them, still win because no one believes fake news anymore. Their credibility is blown.
And if you don’t think that’s a political revolution you haven’t been paying attention.
Murdoch’s Sunshine Coast Daily, bowing to pressure, has belatedly apologised for having a front page picture of the Premier framed by a firearm’s sighting crosshairs.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election-2019/queensland-newspaper-apologises-after-palaszczuk-image-sparks-anger-20190521-p51ppc.html
Has anyone seen the booth by booth map here:
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38807
It shows to me that the redistribution had a huge impact!
In fact it was the thing that saved Michael Sukkar from defeat…
The following is a list of booths that changed electorate.
The Labor percentage is it’s 2pp vote at each booth (then the % swing to the ALP).
Deakin lost the following booths to Chisholm:
Springview Labor 54.17% +7.73% swing
Blackburn North Labor 57.93% +11.34% swing
Blackburn Upper Labor 54.49% +4.71% swing
Blackburn West Labor 52.33% +1.55% swing
Laburnam Labor 63.41% +12.85% swing
Deakin Gained the Booths of:
Ringwood North Labor 35.29% -2.71% swing
Croydon Hills Labor 39.09% -0.63% swing
Croydon East Labor 51.39% +4.41% swing
Croydon South Labor 47.8% +3.02% swing
Bayswater North Labor 50.53% +1.24% swing
Gaining booths out east saved Michael Sukkar, especially the Ringwood North and Croydon Hills locations. On the 2016 boundaries, he would have lost easily!
Just catching up with today’s news and sure enough, the wheels are falling off Scomo’s promises and the Australian economy.
FIrst all those wealthy retirees with savings, thanks grey nomads, interest rates are about to go down and your savings deposit returns will tank again. Suckers!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/reserve-bank-poised-to-cut-interest-rates-in-june/11134160
As for first home buyers and that new funding scheme, well I didn’t mean it would help you…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/coalition-election-promise-for-first-home-buyers-risky-economist/11134020
Labor is correct to review leadership, policy and messaging. But don’t get too introspective. ScoMo’s campaigning aside, the Liberal ship is still taking on a lot of water. That reputation for “superior economic management, can be buried right now with the correct commentary.
Confessions @ #876 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:33 pm
Albanese has a huge majority in the most non-bogan electorate in Australia. He has sent the greens packing. I sense he knows how to appeal to all types. The “bogan” vote is the achilles heel which must be addressed. The rest will actually care about Labor policy.
“Stan Grant is the worst Drum host that I’ve seen.”
The man is a pompous git.
The “Liar from the Shire” is one likely to stick to ScoMo i think. They promised to recall the Parliament soonest to get the first round of tax cuts in and if they hold those hostage to getting the later ones, ( so well biased to high income earners) through, then its starts the term badly with those who want their lolly above all. Apparently and to the countries shame, quite a few of the electorate.
Gladys Liu officially wins Chisholm by more than 1000 votes, what a fail for Labor to only gain 2 seats in Victoria when they thought they were going to win 5 or 6. PM Morrison now has the magic 76 seats for a majority government. Bass will be 77 and then Macquarie 78.
Briefly – ahh I see.
Rest assured, like “Remember the Alamo!”, “Remember 2009!” won’t be far from my lips – but once I’ve dealt with Tories first.
WayOutWest:
The RBA June board meeting outcome will be very interesting. The govt has decided to defer parliament until after 30 June, so unfortunately no action on the horizon in response to the likely decision to cut interest rates further.
What rot
You’ll be out for forty years with that
Yes that is true.
Unless and until there is a big shift in Australia politics either Labor or Liberal are going to have a majority in the lower house. As a thinking rational adult (I know we have some here) it is unlikely that either Labor or Liberal are going to have a range of policies with with you all agree. On the Liberal side, the nationals, one nation, the Qld LNP are all grown up enough to work out that getting power is a prerequisite to doing anything at all. In fact for many of them it seems at times more important than anything else.
On the Labor side it seems we don’t do rationality. We must talk for months about how the Labor renewable energy plan doesn’t go far enough. We must talk about how the Labor NBN plan doesn’t fix it fast enough. How the independence of the ABC plan of Labor isn’t quite good enough. How the Federal ICAC doesn’t seem quite real enough, they were only dragged to it kicking and screaming.
All very very fair arguments, with which I would agree.
However there is a time and place to make them. Those who’ve been making them, are now in the position they deserve where they aren’t getting any of them at all they are getting Morrison’s religious version. Largely because we aren’t grownups that understand having power is very important. We don’t understand incremental change. It has to be a three week plan to solve climate change, because no plan is better than the four week plan.
Time we grewup and considered how power works, rather than living in our little policy perfection bubbles whilst handing the keys of power to corrupt clowns like Scott Morrison.
Just imagine a joint Bob Bill caravan to the cities and towns near the proposed Adani mine, that didn’t once talk about trying to take jobs away from people. Imagine a joint caravan that only talked about the jobs they would bring. Construction jobs, ongoing maintenance jobs, ongoing techincal and support trades. Long term cheap electricity, perhaps even subsides to establish industries around the energy hubs.
All stuff that Labor and Greens largely agree on. All stuff that noone said during the election campaign. All stuff that could win votes. When we grow up and take it seriously, and pragmatically and not as a continual arm wrestle of pure virtue v compromise.
On every single policy front Australia would have been better today with a Labor Govt. Every single one. Many of them not nearly as better as most of us would hope for. But we didn’t say that. Bob Brown didn’t say that Richard didn’t say that Bill didn’t say that. And we all got what we deserved. 3, maybe 6 maybe 9, maybe 12 years of Morrison. Who knows how stupid we will all be next time and the time after that and the time after that.
Not Sure says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2019 at 8:26 pm
The Labor plurality has been ebbing away for about 25 years. When Bob Hawke won in 1983, it was about 46%. When Andrew Scullin won in 1929, he secured 49% of the PV. On Saturday we got about 1/3 of the PV. The Frauds who pose as Labor-Superiors on our Left have split Labor and have run wedge politics all the time. It’s now very very difficult for Labor to win.
All the action in Australian politics – as elsewhere – since around the turn of the century has been on the Right. Division on the Right should have helped Labor. But we have been thwarted by institutional Green-Red division. This will help keep Labor out of power until it’s recognised and a strategy is developed to disable the Gs.
A further consequence of this split has been that not one single important issue or reform -,other than the NDIS – has been resolved on terms that favour working people since the 1980s. So it will remain until the breach is healed. I’m all in favour of healing the breach. But no G can be found who’d be willing to make the same declaration.
Bree @ #888 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 8:41 pm
Does this show the growing Chinese community is basically tory. If so, that is very bad news for Labor.
“We don’t need to do anything to help first homebuyers anymore; the RBA just made their finance more affordable.”
Salk – Very interesting read, because I am having issues with persistent low grade anaemia a swollen lymph node in my neck and terrible bouts of gut and chest pain, yet they can’t seem to find anything.
In fact on Saturday we went up to local school to vote but when I got there I was in so much pain, walking to the booth was beyond me, so I went home and by the time the pain had eased off the polls were shut so I didn’t even end up voting.
Gough Whitlam and Labor won in 1972 and prompted the disappearance of the splitters of the day. We need a leader and a party now that can win and dispel the current splitters. Perhaps Albo is that leader.
Diogenes:
I have a number of questions about this.
1. Does the “comprehensive centre” approach make sense medically?
1a. E.g. in relation to cancer? heart? (e.g. the Vic one), eyes?, dental hospital?
(I would guess “yes”, “no idea”, “probably not” and “no”)
1b If so (obviously I don’t know) then the logical evolution includes:
– “central medical districts” such as Parkville in Melbourne and the RAH area in Adelaide
– specialisation in each national centre, such as the proposed ?? proton unit in SAHMRI2/Bragg
– national integration, including specialities in each of the five capitals (and perhaps something like the NCI (https://www.cancer.gov/) in Canberra. (“accredited” CCCs can run “single centre trials” somewhat autonomously, without a whole lot of extra bureaucracy)
– a national mandatory registry (I understand SA registry is particularly good for various cancer types)
So – if the CCC makes sense, specific funding for cancer could be the start of a national system, fully funded by the Commonwealth
2 – MRI? PET? How long must one wait? It might be better if (in particular) younger patients working full time can be seen in private practice? And there are people in the regions, which I think was rhwombat’s point?
3 – So give them money BUT subject to conditions. E.g. sharing images (etc.) nationally etc.
4 – Is GP spend public or private. I would say it is essentially a public monopsony (obviously Kerryn Phelps and her $1500 fees is a different kettle of fish). So the government can purchase services from private physicians on “lowest price” basis (or even a fixed rate) and that would count as a form of public spend
And also – wasn’t much of it about oncology? (per rhwombat’s comment again) And if it was and a member of the medical profession was unaware, then that’s certainly an indictment on the communication of the policy…
Truthy
Can I ask you –
. Which media, specifically, do you consider “the fake news”?, and
. Provide some examples of where these outlets have provided false information.