I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
“Kevin you went to NYC and bent the knee in 07. Pot Kettle.”
Kevin knows from bitter experience. Murdoch is an enemy of Labor, as will be his heirs and successors.
I’d boycott Newscorp except that I don’t buy any of their products. I don’t buy newspapers, don’t subscribe to any of their “news” sites and don’t have Foxtel. From what I’ve seen of the latter, it’s a crap product, like the digital free to air stations. I’m not a sports fan so I can’t comment on that aspect of Newscorp offerings.
But would it be possible to get a boycott Newscorp movement going? Stop purchasing their crapsheets, cancel subscriptions to Foxtel and Newscorp sites. Non-Coalitio-voting Sports fans to get their fix from elsewhere. Hit their profits. If their potential audience is restricted to half the population, maybe there’ll be change.
If it makes anyone feel better Carlton is likely to be looking for a new coach after tonight’s abysmal performance
Blobbit what I’m saying is the the pollsters have to use some assumptions about things they can’t measure. One of those is how undecideds break at the last minute. The usual assumption is that they break pretty much along the lines of the final result.
My theory is that in this election, that assumption broke. Why? Fear. Pure fear. People when they are scared “go home to momma”. They opt for no change.
“Blobbit
Pity the Greens haven’t really picked up on watergate. Or am I missing something?”
Hi Lizzie, it didn’t seem to be something they were overly concerned about. I’m sure they said something about it, but it didn’t seem to be a big focus.
The whole water thing was the result of LNP policy, so not worth the Green’s pursuing hard on the campaign.
One good practice followed by US pollsters is to give the numbers without any adjustment for undecided voters & then explicitly show the number who are undecided.
The Australian polling practice of removing the undecideds gives a very false impression that everyone has already made up their minds.
Zeh @ #1292 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
Really? My Facebook timeline is predominantly Liberal leaning given the political views of the majority of my friends. But I think that’s simply a by-product of living in a very safe Liberal seat. Most people here vote Liberal or National.
I am getting old and now wonder whether i am destined to live under right wing Tory governments for the rest of days.
“Sure. Except that the only way to actually get any action on climate change is to convince people how bad it really is. Most people – even now – clearly have no idea.
So, which comes first – the fried chicken or the fried egg?”
Nah. The only way to get action on it is to promise no one will suffer during the campaign and that you’ll sort it out. Once in government, then actually do something.
Cud Chewer @ #1273 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 6:16 pm
The late-May election date was Morrison’s best move of the entire campaign. Blunts the climate-change aspect to have the election run in one of the ~3 months of the year when everyone isn’t going “why is it so fucking hot?”.
swamprat that reminds me of the processing center from the movie “Escape from New York”.
“You may elect termination” – as an option to being permanently exiled to New York.
“One of those is how undecideds break at the last minute.”
Fair enough. I suspect now though that there weren’t actually as many undecided as the pollsters thought.
Watergate, GBR, Parakeelia,Paladin & many more questionable actions of the government meant O to the punters.
It was all washed away!
Blobbit
That’s roughly how Morrison tackled it during the campaign – but he has no intention of moving on it.
Player One
A better way to convince may be to push the changes needed as a jobs bonanza and point out all the new industries and job opportunities. Provide lots of assistance towards the industries and training of workers. Make it look and sound a YUGE opportunity rather than sack cloth and ashes re your future and or job.
Blobbit isn’t that fundamentally saying that the only way to treat the voters is to lie to them?
Kinda fits in what my opinions stated earlier. Shallow. Selfish. Intellectually lazy. Stupid.. want some more adjectives?
“swamprat says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 6:36 pm
I am getting old and now wonder whether i am destined to live under right wing Tory governments for the rest of days.”
I’m not that old, only middle aged. But I’m starting to wonder the same as well.
Not one commercial coal mine left in the UK as I understand it. All the old mining towns have virtually disappeared yet there is estimated to be hundreds of years of black coal left in the ground. However, while all the slag heaps have gone, the jobs have gone, the miners have gone, the north of England and the middle part of Scotland are much poorer than the south. One must respect that the Queensland miners have a point………….
And in Victoria, just how well is the Latrobe Valley going right now? The easily mined lignite stretches from Yallourn almost all the way to Sale yet, while it is touted there is enough coal there for 200 years, the Valley’s days as both a mining area and electricity producing area are numbered. The LV has been depressed for 30 or more years and yet, at one time, the old SEC was going to last for ever.
The federal Greens have tried to make Adani an issue for the last two recent elections: this federal election and the Batman by-election. Both backfired on them.
“A better way to convince may be to push the changes needed as a jobs bonanza and point out all the new industries and job opportunities.”
But Poroti, Labor’s clearly stated and detailed policies were a jobs bonanza. You get a lot more growth out of an economy from investment in people and infrastructure than you do out of pampering the rich.
But when do you explain these facts? Not during an election campaign. It takes years to educate people on these big picture issues.
Labor – Greens Wars
Looks like the LNP will now form majority government with a the swing to them getting close to 1%, if not more.
With the benefit of hindsight, I wonder what the outcome would have been different if Labor and the Greens had coordinated their strategies.
You both have, fundamentally, the same objectives. It wouldn’t need to be a coalition or formal agreement – just a bit of consultation on how you collectively might tackle a common adversary.
You both might appreciate the other having your back.
The rotflmao thing is that the coal industry is already subsidised and Morrison is cutting their taxes……..gotta love the Libs socialist agenda.
When it comes to the ALP leadership there is a simple question, what does the ALP want its image to be. Is that image professional, stylist and sophisticated then go with Tanya P, if you want a leader that looks comfortable at the pub and at the footy then go with Albo.
“Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 6:39 pm
Blobbit isn’t that fundamentally saying that the only way to treat the voters is to lie to them?
Kinda fits in what my opinions stated earlier. Shallow. Selfish. Intellectually lazy. Stupid.. want some more adjectives?”
Yes, it is. It’s what’s won the last few elections. Remember, no cuts to the ABC?
It’s either that, or you have to bribe everyone, while still claiming a surplus. That’ll involve lying as well though, since it’s generally impossible.
I accept that’s a pretty bleak view. I can’t say it makes me feel particularly happy.
Dear Richard,
Now more than ever we need progressives to bring macroeconomic literacy to public debates.
We need to help people understand that the constraints on the federal government’s spending are not financial. The constraint is the availability of real resources that are for sale in the government’s currency.
We need progressives to promise full employment via a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee.
We must ensure that everyone who wants work has work, and that the work is interesting and fulfilling for the worker and valuable for the community.
We need to propose changes to employment law to improve the quality of people’s jobs.
Best wishes
Nicholas
Cud Chewer
Did they ? I didn’t hear any ‘jobs jobs jobs’ message being pushed. And yes they should have been doing it for years before now.
Frame the “Climate Change” stuff as a golden opportunity for Australia.
“Labor’s clearly stated and detailed policies were a jobs bonanza”
But not necessarily for the people who are going to lose their (perceived) jobs.
Someone on QLD doesn’t care if a shift to renewables means someone in SA is going to get a job, if they believe it will cost them theirs.
“if you want a leader that looks comfortable at the pub and at the footy then go with Albo.”
Albo it is then. He’ll have to get out of the South East of the country though.
lizzie @ #1299 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 6:32 pm
Why would the Greens bother with an environmental issue? Where are the votes in that?
Mexicanbeemer @ #1317 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:43 pm
Why should it be about appearance? I’d prefer a leader who is going to lead Labor back into govt.
Steve:
Do many people still spend money on Newscorp, anyway? I barely know anyone who bothers with Foxtel, anymore – the only ones who do are sports obsessives. In this age of Netflix and Pirate Bay, why the fuck would you bother with with it otherwise? Nor do I know anybody who still reads a newspaper, because, again, why fumble about with those enormous, ungainly things when you can just go online.
While I’m sure they still have an audience, I’m going to hazard a guess that the majority of those who spend money on their products are those who aren’t particular bothered about the Murdoch influence. Oh, and Boerwar, I suppose.
Which isn’t to say they don’t still have an impact. They do, but not in the way people tend to think. I’ve long argued that the main way newspapers reach people these days is through the headlines alone. Barely anyone actually buys or reads the damn things, but you see them whenever you go into the server or the supermarket. And somewhere like Queensland, where we mainly have the Australian and the Courier Mail (the latter which makes the Australian look the very image of measured, unbiased journalism in comparison), you are being bombarded with hysterical right-wing headlines any time you go to the shops.
And up until last night, I tended towards the view that these headlines had gotten so ridiculous (the Daily Telegraph and Courier Mail in particular) that people had just stopped taking them seriously. They had basically become the broadsheet equivalent of all the gossip mags feverishly claiming (insert latest celebrity couple here) are on the verge of getting divorced. Because, hey, despite it all, Labor was still on track for a victory, right?
Guess I was wrong.
If the promised jobs nirvana from Adani doesn’t materialise in Central QLD, I wonder if that will backfire on the LNP in 3 years time?
Ok well I accept that Blobbit. Lets suppose the average voter is stupid, gullible etc.
How do you then scientifically approach this? My view is that you still have to spend the years between campaigns winning the war of big ideas. After all scare campaigns like “Labor is bad with money” only work because their is some level of acceptance of the idea in the first place.
You can run a campaign about how renewables will create thousands of jobs with flashy feel good ads. But this won’t work unless over preceding years people have actually assimilate the fact that renewables do create lots of jobs. Most people haven’t had much experience outside their ordinary life.
Again with the NBN. You cant make a campaign ad out of the failure of MTM unless you’ve first spent years teaching people that the rest of the world is going to fibre and that anything else is wasted money.
I said this back in 2013. Labor needs to win the battle of big ideas and that means it needs to be permanently campaigning on lots of little facts. For example, when is Labor going to realise it actually has to turn round and point out that Howard’s years were wasted and filled with policy disasters.
Penalty Rates
Job Security
Wage Growth
Housing Affordability
Cost of living
These are the key issues that Labor has to hit the Liberals on, its their achilies, and the Libs know it
The Global Warming stuff really needs to be on the back burner for the moment.
We all get that its important, but out there is Boganland where the votes are won, it’s not even near the top of their concerns. Heck allot of them think that it’s a “myth”, the youtube told them so.
But GW, for better or worse, sends a shiver down the spine of too many voters, and it’s too easy for the Fibs to exploit.
Forget the Greens, virtue signaling will get the ALP nowhere.
Guytaur,
China claiming that is doing something about emissions targets by hitting a per-unit number when they continue to release greater and greater tonnages of emissions is a joke. It does nothing to fix the problem which requires a drop in total emissions- not per unit.
D @ #1310 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 6:38 pm
I can’t reach that conclusion because Labor ran an entire election campaign without mentioning any of those things!
The Labor attack ads I saw were about:
1. Coalition preference deals with PUP and PHON
2. Leadership chaos/instability
3. Morrison voting against the banking royal commission some large number of times
Evan no it will take longer.
Don’t underestimate the shallowness of the average human.
Sky News election night viewers around the same as Ch10 and SBS.
I’m always amazed anyone puts their hand up to be an Opposition Leader, it must be one of the most soul destroying jobs in the world.
I won’t envy Tanya who presumably will be interim Labor opposition leader when parliament resumes, the gloating from the other side won’t be pretty.
“Evan says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 6:48 pm
If the promised jobs nirvana from Adani doesn’t materialise in Central QLD, I wonder if that will backfire on the LNP in 3 years time?”
There may be some hope there, tbh. That might present an opening for a big renewables project, to be located in the region, with local contractors.
I wonder what Adani will do, now they have to build the thing. Not sure that was in their plans, though I’m sure they’ll get a nice subsidy to make it happen now.
Having a bit of a read of the posts here from the past couple of hours and it’s all a bit sad.
Talk about irrelevant.
The Liberal party has Labor’s measure.
The ALP has to believe in itself again.
It has to believe it is better than the alternative.
It has to stop being scared of the bigger boys.
It needs to find the fire. The passion.
The big boys took your NBN away, so what do you do? Give up.
I could go on.
But really, we need to wait and see what the rank and file decide.
As I said a few times during the campaign; Morrison knew he could run the ALP down.
And he did. He did, and the ALP were timid and fearful because they could see it coming.
Let’s see if it learns this time.
a r
I agree. I was annoyed at how low profile Labor was being with its ads when there were so many ads that wrote themselves. All you had to do was to run ads directly sampling video of the Libs themselves.
Blobbit @ #1290 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 6:25 pm
He just died.
Still blaming News Corp. Hilarious.
Mexican amigo………if only life’s choices were so easy…………………….Are you suggesting that all Albo is, is some knock about in a pub, and Tanya is just a pretty face? I suspect both individuals, without knowing much about them at all, are much more complex in make up. However, I take your point………..image is everything in politics. I was fed up with the Messiah wish from Labor with Rudd and we did not get this with Shorten. But, while he had passion, he was not able to – or by my observation – cross over the stage lights as it were, and connect with the unwashed masses who did not give a stuff about him one way or the other.
mundo stop pretending that Labor needs a Messiah.
Labor needs far more sophisticated and competent messaging. Stuff that is going out all the time and designed to win the battle of big ideas. Without that no heroic leadership stuff is going to work.
Morisson had better, more professional messaging.
Confessions @ #1318 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
You did watch Scrote during the campaign didn’t you?
It might have a little bit to do with it.
“You can run a campaign about how renewables will create thousands of jobs with flashy feel good ads. ”
That’s part of it. I think it appears in Australia you have to sell these things on how is going to make each individual seat better off. Not in a general “there’ll be more jobs” but in a much more specific project sense.
Anyway, I have to go cook some parsnips, and I’ve been boring people too much.
Cud Chewer @ #1334 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
I have never said Labor needs a messiah.
Never pretended to say it either.
Labor needs guts and passion.
Labor already has guts and passion.
It needs more professional messaging.