I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Tricot says:
Yep , ebbs and flows. At one stage CanJoh Newman, as mayor of Brisvegas, was the Coalition side’s highest elected office holder.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 5:33 pm
Is there a Newspoll tonight? Does anybody know?
Who cares; it will be a random number between 47 and 53.
Lizzie,
No, I don’t work in mining or coal but I am proud to say that I did help build one of the largest LNG plants in the world – I don’t do that anymore.
Regards
B
Fess
Gawd, not Alan Jones as well as Pyne.
“I say again, it is in our national interests to be at the forefront of emissions reductions”
Simon, I agree with you, but the left won’t win a federal election on that basis it seems, if the method is by closing mines.
I suspect the only policy that might work is a program of building renewables, but without saying they will result in closures of the current tech. That part is just going to have to happen naturally.
I must admit, as someone who’s never been an enormous fan of Albo, his press conference this morning was excellent. Leaps and bounds ahead of his stilted performance during the last leadership contest, and many of his media appearances since. He’s not my number one choice, but I’m certainly coming around to the idea.
Bucephalus @ #1189 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 5:35 pm
Perhaps you think “per capita” emissions is a more equitable way to judge our individual culpability?
Sure. Then we are not number 6 – we are number 2, right after Saudi Arabia.
Confessions says: Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 5:41 pm
Sadly we aren’t quite rid of Pyne yet.
********************************************
or sadly , Alan Jones who threatened to resign if the ALP won 🙁
“help build one of the largest LNG plants”
Gorgon? Jesus, that was a masterpiece of Australian industry. Only 25 billion or so over budget.
Q&A
It will be worth watching first 5 minutes to see if the uppers taken by Chalmers gives him enough fight to establish leadership credentials.
Albo doesn’t present as an economically conservative, socially limp lefty. Rudd did – that’s what we need.
lizzie, phoenixRed:
What’s the bet Jones will brag that it was his threat to resign that swung Qld behind the LNP? 😀
Jackol says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 4:32 pm
It’s sounds like mission accomplished!
Undermine over time until people stop caring.
Tonight’s Newspoll will have Labor ahead 51/49. LR lock that in for the next 3 years.
“if the world gets 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer between now and 2040”
Sorry to rain on your parade but 1.5 is no longer remotely possible by then and it won’t top there anyway (especially if Adani goes ahead)
My bet is 3.5 or more by the end of the century – but then again i expected the ALP to win so what would I know?
My grandchildren’s generation will never forgive this generation.
Be in no doubt
The LNP won on Adani because they made it about coal equals jobs.
Despite renewable projects going in that create more jobs.
That’s the problem combatting myth over reality. Not even more jobs at threat on the Great Barrier Reef overcame this myth.
That’s the problem.
It’s one Labor and the Greens can work to undo. Instead of fighting each other.
I think for an opposition leader you have to go with Albanese. He is a bully boy and a great attack dog, that’s what you need in a opposition leader. He’s like the left wing Abbott.
Of course, that’s if the ALP want to go feral.
Other than that, Tanya, for the well spoken softly softly approach and possible foil to show Morrison as a misogynist
Who is chosen depends on what strategy, if any, the ALP has for the next 3 years.
As we’ve seen,it wont be a problem to actually change the leader a year out from the election, I think what is needed now is a professional opposition leader to follow a strategy, be that either attack or undermine.
From my point of view, if you install a newbie straight away, you might suffer from NSW syndrome when nobody knew who the opposition leader was. My opinion would be, cast your ultimate candidate in a deputy role, or a prominent shadow cabinet, and then let them gradually become a familiar face to the electorate.
“Tonight’s Newspoll will have Labor ahead 51/49”
Nah, it’ll probably be something like 54/46 to the ALP. I reckon from now on we’ll need to add 4 to whatever the LNP get.
LVT
LOL!!!
ROFL!!!
guytaur @ #1171 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 5:32 pm
And the rest of Australia, bar Warringah, who just wanted to be rid of Tony Abbott the worst Climate Change dinosaur, didn’t. So your point is extremely weak.
I live in Deakin and I saw stuff all sign of Labor on the ground here. Barley any signage, not that much stuff in the mail. It’s all anecdotal but I just didn’t pick up any vibe that Labor were taking this seat seriously. I was inundated with Liberal campaign material and there was lots of Sukkar signage around my area. Anyway, just my observations.
Other than that, Tanya, for the well spoken softly softly approach and possible foil to show Morrison as a misogynist
Some people just don’t get it. Morrison will use Liberal women to attack Tanya ‘Handbag Hit Squad’ Plibersek.
See how easy it will be?
“Despite renewable projects going in that create more jobs.”
Two problems with this. The jobs don’t necessarily go to the same people, so the people in danger of losing their jobs aren’t going to vote for them.
Second, the jobs are probably going to pay less. So the people who are going to lose their jobs aren’t going to vote for those policies.
The close the mines people will need to address that.
“Albo doesn’t present as an economically conservative, socially limp lefty. Rudd did – that’s what we need.”
and he’s not a god botherer from queensland like Rudd either.
f@#$ing banana bender hicks run the country now – get with the program.
have a sing along to this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-WGfrEj0pE
1 July 2019 penalty rate cuts
Second raft of cuts
1 July 2020
An emboldened government may move faster to completely abolish penalty rates.
Not sure I have the will to protest for the bastards.
Cat
No yours is. You are in denial about change that is happening.
The unpalatable truth is coal exports have to end.
Labor has to address that or it will continue to lose elections to the myth coal equals jobs.
From my point of view, if you install a newbie straight away, you might suffer from NSW syndrome when nobody knew who the opposition leader was. My opinion would be, cast your ultimate candidate in a deputy role, or a prominent shadow cabinet, and then let them gradually become a familiar face to the electorate.
This is a smarter perspective. Jason Clare has a young family anyway, so now is probably not the time for him to lead.
Blobbit,
Not Gorgon and don’t worry about the overbudget spend – that will be more than made back and WA and Australia will be the better off for it.
“An emboldened government may move faster to completely abolish penalty rates.”
Yep.
Also, I expect we can expect the employer bodies to stop talking about Newstart increases, now the immediate danger of an ALP government has passed.
Confessions @ #1197 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 5:39 pm
Haven’t you ever heard of jobs for the boys? What chance the fibs create a special government paid position for him?
At this point I am leaning towards Albo. There’s an element of him being the opportunity we missed last time and we might as well give him a go at it. But, as I said, I will wait and see who nominates and what their pitch is.
I’ve heard Mark Butler is very good. Clare is good.
I suspect Albo will win and get the boot before the next election.
Sorry, what was that? Newspoll? Ipsos? Galaxy? et al…………..To think how some here (me included) sweated to be consoled/annoyed at a smiggen percent up/down and felt/better worse depending on some clown’s WoW! factor. Well, for the time being. until such time as these outfits can lift their efforts above tea-leaf gazing or more scientific dissection of chooks entrails, they can all get stuffed!! I know all about MOE but when one of these outfits was touting an exit poll suggesting a Labor victory 24 hours ago, their credibility is currently shot…………………….
I feel for WB as he had an inkling with his comment about Queensland a few days ago, and his unease about herding and the unknowns associated with the minor parties, that things were not well in poll- land. His professional reputation and that of other poll analysts has been challenged by the lack of transparency of some/all of the above outfits.
Daisi:
Yes, as I said earlier, at the very least Chalmers should replace Bowen as shadow treasurer.
“Labor has to address that or it will continue to lose elections to the myth coal equals jobs.”
The left, including the Greens, had to address what is going to happen to the displaced people. Otherwise they’ll keep voting for their current jobs for as long as they can.
booleanbach @ #1215 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
The 1.5 degree target was political. It was known to be not possible even when the target was being discussed and negotiated. As you say, we are now well into irreversible 3-4 degrees warming, and we are still not doing anything about it. Beyond that, it’s pretty much game over.
But hey – at least some of us will die rich! That’s gotta count for something, right?
Blobbit
One way or another coal is going to end as an industry.
Labor will win by making that reality as easy as possible for coal miners in a transition. It doesn’t change the reality.
Has one K.Rudd commented on the result , particularly as to Queensland?
I’ll never take an opinion poll seriously again.
guytaur @ #1221 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
I’m not in denial about anything. You just don’t get that the electorate couldn’t give a flying fig about real action wrt Climate Change. Yesterday proved that in spades. They care more about their jobs and their family’s financial future.
But you spend the NEXT 3 years wittering away on this blog endlessly about Climate Change and no doubt you will, but I can tell you now, you will convince approximately no one out in the real world.
Tom:
A diplomatic posting? It would certainly remove all opportunity for him to free range in the media, essentially sniping from the sidelines.
And I wonder if JBishop will be appointed Hockey’s replacement.
Let’s be honest about Plibersek.
She is very capable, easy on the eye, a lovely person but unfortunately often looks sleepy & quite monotone.
I would like,
Tanya for leader
Albo for Deputy (attack) Dog.
“Haven’t you ever heard of jobs for the boys? What chance the fibs create a special government paid position for him?”
I reckon that’s a pretty high likelihood. Climate change inaction won this for them (in their view). The LNP right is going to be ascendent.
It’s time he climbed up since he got a safe seat reserved for him.
Nath:
I’d go further and say you are the Napoleon of Colossuses!
Madcyril @ #1239 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 5:57 pm
Me neither.
P1
But hey – at least some of us will die rich! That’s gotta count for something, right?
Nah just move to higher ground & crank up the AC
“guytaur says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 5:57 pm
Blobbit
One way or another coal is going to end as an industry.
Labor will win by making that reality as easy as possible for coal miners in a transition. It doesn’t change the reality”
Guytaur – I agree with that. But stunts like the convoy didn’t convey that. All that said was, your jobs are gone.
We need to stop talking about closing down coal mines, that’ll happen anyway. We need to start talking about building renewables in addition to coal mines.
I agree. I have never advocated for the early closing of coal mines. In fact, due to overseas demand I do not see the industry suffering immediately. But I do advocate for the end to new Coal fired powerstations in Australia. That era is gone.
For the record, I lived in a coal mine area for 8 months. Have worked on both open cut and underground coal mines. I have worked in Oil and Gas seismic research on the NW Shelf. Occasionally worked on Abbott Point. And I use electricity and pay for my power bills and have children that I would like to not have to live in a +3°C world.
Sorry, but 50,000 coal jobs slowly reducing over an extended period time is not as important as the future of the planet. FFS. Closing down the car industry cost that many jobs in far less time. Automation is costing far far more job losses.
Yes, losing your job sucks. I know that personally. But that is the modern era of job security. Coal jobs are not immune from that.