Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)
The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.
Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.
BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.
Original post
To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.
We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.
Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.
Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.
Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.
The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.
Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.
If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).
A projected increase in daily experience of burning just after the proton pump inhibitor class prescribed for reflux has been moved to the more restrictive Authority list on the PBS. You know it makes sense.
With everyone predicting a lot of close seats, one thing is worth remembering. Labor, with the assistance of the unions and Getup to varying degrees, are much more skilled than the Liberals at the vital ground work that each seat requires. They have far more willing and well trained volunteers which is a great advantage. I would back Labor every time in a really close finish.
Has anyone seen an ALP ad online over the past 30 hours or so since the media blackout kicked in? All I get are The Bill Australia Can’t Afford. Everywhere I read on my iPhone the ads are from the Libs. Where are the ALP ads? Where have been the ALP ads on the doubling of the debt or explaining that it is millionaires getting franking credit refunds?
I’ve got a friend in BrisVegas, a die hard Labor man, who says everyone in his large office just parrots LNP talking points and is voting for the Libs. He can’t find a single person admitting they are voting for Labor or can even recite a Labor ad. He is stressed out and reckons Scomo has sucked the electorate in. And the tightening polls just prove this.
Where the f..k are the Labor ads? A million morons probably decide today or tomorrow who they are going to vote for on a last minute impulse and the only ones trying to sway their vote are the Libs. Whoever is running the advertising campaign for the ALP needs their frigging head examined and should be looking for a new job on Sunday.
I’m sorry, but the ALP should’ve won 100 seats. They were favourites in over 90 seats just a few weeks ago and they’ve lost favouritism in at least ten of those seats. That is ridiculous. To scrape in with just 80 seats against this pathetic excuse of a govt is a disgrace. Their messaging has been shit. The Libs trot out a debt truck with no shame about lying through their teeth yet Labor are too afraid to even mention the word debt.
They’d better win on Saturday night or there’ll be shit to pay and with an emboldened Murdoch media they’ll be out of power for a long time.
Where are the Labor ads for crying out loud?
The youngest person who voted when Bob Hawke was PM (election March 1990) would now be 47. The youngest who would remember the Hawke Prime Ministership (in the sense of knowing and caring about politics) would be around 38-40.
The youngest who would would have a memory and feel for the pre-Howard era would now be in their early to mid 30s. You youngest who voted in 1996 are now 40. Howard changed the country, not in a good way.
I just couldn’t bear it if months of lies by Scott and friends turns this into a Coal victory.
Probably the most disturbing aspect of the current election campaign is that there has almost no discussion of foreign policy by any of the major parties. An error in health, energy, or economic policy, no matter how serious it is, can be corrected in the future but a foreign policy miscalculation can, in the current world circumstances, see the complete destruction of the country.
Australians can have absolutely no faith in the foreign policy establishment. After all they are the people who facilitated the series of monumental blunders that led to our involvement in the series of catastrophes that stretch from Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq. We’ve become a war criminal country. The same incompetent failures are still in place in their sinecures in the Canberra “defence” cabal. Their systematic inability to grasp the situation of Australia in the world have immeasurably increased the dangers Australians face whether at home or overseas. The country is on the nose almost everywhere except in the “5 spies” alliance. It gets a great deal of bad press recently and it’s only going to get worse.
Australia is the world’s second biggest purchaser of US weapons systems after Saudi Arabia. This enormous military expenditure from the F35 lemons to the useless submarines is just money that could be put to good use domestically being pissed away against the wall. Why? Because they are ranged against Sarmat and DF (Dong Feng or East Wind) mirved ICBMs. Just one of these missiles can (and will) take out the Darwin Base, Pine Gap, Cockburn Sound and all of Australia’s cities. And my guess is that we’re likely to receive at least six of them if somebody lights the nuclear touch paper. We are like a man with a bow and arrow going up against a battalion armed with machine guns. The submarines won’t have any ports to come home to and the flying lemons will have to crash land in fields.
What do you do when you’re fighting a monster with five eyes. You try to poke out as many of them as you can as quickly as you can. I can’t count the number of times I’ve read chilling comments in the international internet along the lines of it “being time to take the sabre to Australia and New Zealand”. We’ll liklel;y be the first to go when the great Powers start really mixing it. And do any of you think the US will do a thing about it? We’re not worth it. Just expendable damage.
Gonna be terrible for city property prices. Bout time to sell up and get out I’d say. Because the same idiots are in charge. They’ll do for us for sure.
https://tenor.com/view/wargames-gif-3485756
I don’t think anyone can predict with confidence what will happen so just relax and wait out the next day and a bit 🙂
Thanks all for posting here – it is comforting to come back here and see the same faces and entertaining commentary. Regardless of the result it’ll be good to see you all again in another 3 years for another round of over analysis, certainty, doubt etc.
lizzie @ #151 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:06 am
None of us could.
Start working on it now.
It helped me get over the hump in 2016, 2013, 2004, 2001 and 98……
When I was in the scouts, we were prepared.
The next 36 hours will be a long two weeks.
My take on the polling overall?
From what i’m reading this is going to be an election where we know there is a swing, but it all depends on WHERE the swing is concentrated.
If the “campaign period” move back to the Coalition is actually concentrated in Lib seats…they are fwarked.
Good luck to all this Sat, though i hope to see the Coalition and their supporters crushed like the bugs they are.
And remember, regardless of the result and rants by the likes of Kerri-Ann, the sun will actually come up on Sunday.
ltep
I am always appreciative of Western Australians who log in early (WA time) then late at night keep going as us Easterners sign out!
The Fin was always going to endorse the Tories lol
Hi all,
I’m normally a lurker but I thought some of you may be interested in a short video explaining preferences that I’ve made.
I suspect everyone here is across the subject, but you may know first time voters or disengaged types who struggle with it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7P7nPtrdI8
Feedback is also appreciated.
Thanks.
I take some consolation in that even if its a minority coalition government the ALP may still have the opportunity to negotiate with the independents to get things through the Reps (the Senate will be what it will be anyway). From 2010 to 2013 Abbott chose total opposition and did not even try but he could have, Tony Windsor pointed this out.
imacca @ #155 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:11 am
But, if you stay in your room with the curtains shut for a few days……
Ah yes, fond memories of 2013 post election night……..
mundo @ #153 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:10 am
And that’s why we now have the national Redress scheme.
persuaded
mundo @ #145 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:00 am
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary
No fear, he said, I’m not going to read that lot.
The Australian – home.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
Barge pole material. 😈
The already-voted Galaxy poll of 53-47 to the Libs, if it is to be believed, would mean Labor needs 52.5 on Saturday to get to 51.25.
Grime @ #161 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:16 am
Que?
Earth to Grime WAYTA?
It’s always funny to see the contortions of certain newspapers when they endorse the Coalition (as these ones do at every election) after a period of completely chaotic non-government. I think one of them (Oz?) said Australia needed a ‘steady pair of hands’. Lol!!!
I am still going for Labor winning between 80-82 seats on election, which would translate to a quite workable 9-13 seat majority. This election campaign resembles that of 1972 in some ways, Labor gained an extra 8 out of 125 seats in that, although they gained 18 in the previous federal election. In 2016 Labor gained an extra 14 seats and got an extra 3 with the redistribution.
The question I have been asking all through this election campaign is how big the cross-bench is going to be. I am predicting is going to be bigger than what the bookies and polls are predicting.
Also I would keep an eye out for seats in the Murray Darling Basin, particularly Parkes, Rivernia, Hume, Farrer, New England, Mallee, Hume and Calare. Some might produce some shock results on election night.
mundo @ #164 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:19 am
Sorry I get it now. How did you know I went to an Anglican boys’ grammar school as a boarder?
I would love it if PB could start engaging New Zealanders. Yes I know how much William just loves covering other countries’ elections!
I have no further territorial demands.
I’ll probably be prepolling today at a joint booth in Warringah. I might see Abbott and ask him why he couldnt say something nice about Hawke.
I read The Australian editorial on why we should vote for the devil. In short, the Coalitions record on the economy and border protection is far superior to the six years of Labor rule and therefore you should vote for them. Pretty much how the Liberals are better economic mangers and how they are best placed to deliver stability now and growth in the future. This I find highly doubtful
Otherwise its just a rabble about how Shorten is running a a whatever-it-costs climate change crusade to boost union power or something like that. To be entirely honest, I would absolutely love that.
Rocket Rocket @ #165 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:19 am
yeah, which pair….
Sohar @ #163 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:18 am
So the people are voting early because they’re keen to get rid of this mob may have been a tad optimistic?
With the libs/nats combined primary vote of under 40%
It looks like the libs/nats are getting the 2pp in the wrong places for them like in the safe coalition seats like cook , and the regional areas where national party members are strong ,
the libs/nats are not getting it in the areas where they need it
The already voted is IPSOS.
Let me say, the way Labor wins in 2022 is by winning 2019 and delivering.
People will always default, no matter how many times they’re told the facts about the Lib economic record, that the Tories are the best economic managers. Right of centre parties throughout the world have this going for them.
So no matter how many times you shout at them about how much the debt has increased etc etc – they will hurl it right back and theirs will stick.
Again – the only way for Labor to be seen as the better economic managers they actually are… is to win and govern.
mundo @ #167 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:20 am
I was both in the scouts and went to a Christian Bros junior school 🙂
I’m nearly 31, and my first memory of anything politically related was the lead-up to the 1998 election, when I was about ten. In particular, I can remember my Dad following the count online on the night and the next day (we didn’t have TV reception at the time), and being baffled by the fact that the person who got the most votes still lost the election. Dad tried in vain to explain the electoral system, but it all went over my head at the time – I had a mental image of both candidates winning literal chairs, with whoever had collected the most becoming Prime Minister.
Howard was the Prime Minister of my childhood and teenage years. By the time 2007 rolled around – the first federal election I could vote in – it seemed like he had been PM for my entire life.
You’ll all be pleased to know I’m signing off now.
It’ll be a boil over.
53/47
To the coalition.
Don’t look at the box or read a paper for 6 months.
Don’t, above all things, watch Scumo’s victory speech.
There’ll be no coming back from there.
It’s been fun.
I hope I’m wrong because if I’m right I’ll never be able to take anything many of you say here seriously again.
Tristo
I think if they hadn’t used up all their money and candidates in the NSW election that SFF could have won Parkes and maybe Calare.
I think the Liberals will lose Farrer to the independent
Grime @ #174 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:26 am
nuff said.
mundo says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:23 am
The already-voted Galaxy poll of 53-47 to the Libs, if it is too be believed, would mean Labor needs 52.5 on Saturday to get to 51.25.
So the people are voting early because they’re keen to get rid of this mob may have been a tad optimistic?
——————-
Comonsense should tell people
How can Ipsos claim pre-poll to be 53-47, when Ipsos would not know what the primary votes for all of the Parties and independents are , and the preferences ?
I didn’t see anyone else ask, so I will: Hawke death bump for Labor? (H/t to screenwriters of Veep for the pithy phrase.)
The tax scare is certainly keeping things closer than it should be. It was well played by the turds.
Has anyone taken notice of the age brackets in the queues at prepoll booths? The higher representation of over 60’s could explain the apparent coalition advantage.
Remembering Hawke this morning, I’m reminded of the great accomplishments of Labor governments of the past and the repeated failures of the reactionaries that have always opposed Labor. The Lib-Libs and their chums are pissants. Labor have always led the way in this country and continue to do so.
Are there prepolling figures for individual electorates available?
Get a grip people. Labor have got this.
50% + 1 is a winning margin, ffs the Coalition made 50% – 1 a winning margin.
My personal guess is Labor on 84 seats, but 76 will make me happy.
The Senate will be whatever the Senate will be. Labor will be negotiating there with self-deluded egotistical windbags no matter what happens. The only variation is which windbags.
IoM
It was a bit sad – Abbott was still PM when Whitlam died and was fairly gracious that time. At least he wasn’t dog whistling on ‘character’ this time, unlike someone else.
Steve Bloom @ #180 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:29 am
Really doesn’t matter,those right wingers will be singing his praises come Sunday Morning with head lines screaming:
IT WAS HAWKE WOT DID IT.
Having a debate with a mate – have the betting / bookies markets ever been wrong in terms of predicting the winner of an Australian election?
Has anybody asked that rugby player for a comment about our former PM?
The handout-dependent boomers have been voting early. But they only get to vote once. Pre-poll voting will make no difference to the eventual result.
“Having a debate with a mate – have the betting / bookies markets ever been wrong in terms of predicting the winner of an Australian election?”
State elections yes.
Very nearly got in wrong in 2016.
Rocket Rocket @ #168 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:53 am
We will have no chully buns or jandals here.
Leon says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:30 am
Are there prepolling figures for individual electorates available?
————————
No because they are not counted until election night
sprocket_ @ #27 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 6:24 am
I can’t find this poll anywhere, is it on the Australian website???
One post for today.
Interesting approach from Ipsos re a sub set of respondents who have already voted.
I was wondering if they made clear the sample size of the sub set or any age, sex breakdown ?
Perhaps the majority of the sub set would vote liberal anyway irrespective of when they vote ?
So many questions. Just chasing a headline I would think
Cheers.