Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 thoughts on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 27 of 31
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  1. Honest Bastard
    says:
    ALP included at the bottom but I weeded out any SDA aligned or otherwise dodgy looking ALP candidates. Suspect my vote will stop with Waters at position 5.
    ____________________________________
    Excellent work.

  2. Confessions says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 8:51 pm

    Tim Lyons@Picketer
    3h3 hours ago
    Anyway, this is what Bob inherited as PM: business interest rates 41%, inflation 11%, unemployment 11%, 1.4% growth, Criminal tax avoidance for the wealthy, 3 in 10 kids finished high school, no Medicare and 20% of private sector workers had any super.

    The 3 kids in 10 completing high school is just shocking to me. That’s in my lifetime and something akin to a developing country indicator!

    Apparently it was up to 7 in 10 when they finished their stint.

  3. I drove past a polling booth in Queanbeyan (Eden-Monaro) this evening, after it had been decorated with bunting from both parties. Interesting that each party has chosen to feature the other party’s leader: the Liberals had their red posters of Mr Shorten with warnings of taxes etc, and don’t risk it, together with their blue ones with their slogan about the economy and security; Labor used the yellow and black one with Mr Morrison, threatening cuts to health etc.

    Nothing new from either side. I guess they are doing what their pollsters are telling them may swing some uncertain voters at the last minute, but I didn’t have the sense of any knockout blows there (unlike the 2001 “We will decide who comes to this country ….” posters, which really did have some bite in them).

  4. My personal hope for a specific Lib seat going down is Pearce and that prize prick Porter.

    That plus a Labor win would make my night. 🙂

  5. BK @ #1257 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    IMHO the narrowing is down to the unchallenged BS that the Coalition are good money managers and are lower taxing.

    Yeah? Well I think it’s down to all the pollsters suddenly deciding to change how they allocate PHON/PUP preferences for no real reason. So there! ;P

  6. There has been a lot of wistfulness directed towards New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, an expressed yearning to live in a community with leadership that really does lead, and in a good way.

    Hawke’s passing has reminded us that we have been that country. And can always be that place, if enough of us want it and say so.

  8. I suspect the Molan vote below the line will show the “Liberal base” numbers are not very significant. I’m thinking under 20,000. Could be good for a PB guessing comp. Would be helpful if some scrutineers also monitored the rate of Molan 1 informals – my estimate not that high despite speculation by some PBs.

    It will also be interesting to match his votes with electorates to show which Liberal members were part of the Molan push.

  11. Fess, I think Campbell has bee ‘realistic’ for the past few weeks in his commentary. He know the LNP are basically stuffed and hasn’t been sugar-coating it like a lot of his colleagues

  16. LR – it has been some years since OH was in newspapers (TV now) to know what time they put the baby to bed, so to speak. And election editions might be a little different.

    But the ‘exposure’ of Newspoll’s numbers might well be less at that time of the night and you also have fewer outlets on a Saturday – no ordinary ABC TV, for instance (Rage instead).

  19. Newspoll has been delayed – awaiting last minute corrections from Rupert in New York! It must be choreographed just so for maximum effect!

  22. Working out preferences for the senate in this election really is hard work. Probably about 4-5 hours researching some of the minors. In the end you put your best first and the scum last, plenty of them (scum that is). Can’t recall so many parties with Australia in their name. Populism is so crap.

  26. Labor PB’ers just can’t get over the fact that Greens have the far better election night volunteer parties! Practising my most genuine charismatic smile for the HTV hand outs tomorrow. Come on Ryan toss this Liberal tosser!

  28. Paul Murray is entertaining, hoping as I watch that they are as out of touch as the Tories. All the Tories have spoken, a lot. Stephen Conroy has said about 3 words. Easy job for Conroy- he just turns up, says very little and gets paid.

    I never watch this channel because Mrs Deakin and I don’t have the Foxtels.

    Hoping that Newspoll is better than expected for the good guys, for more reasons than it will make great TV – live Schadenfreude.

  31. “Fozzie Logic says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:27 pm

    Expat @ #1295 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:12 pm

    @C@t (and others)

    I think I might know who Lars von Trier is (the poster here, not the film maker) in the real world, and if I’m correct it’s a woman.

    KAK?”

    Rather appropriately, “KAK” is the Afrikaans for “shit”.

  32. Honest Bastard at 9.10pm. You would have to be missing a few kangaroos in the top paddock to suggest a vote like that. Yes it will be an effective vote for Greens but by not putting the Labor 2 and 3 on your list your vote will not go to either the no 2 or no 3 Labor candidate. No 1 Nita Green will already be elected before you vote goes past your 1 vote. Then by the time your preferences might go to Major and Warry who are 4 and 6 on the Labor list they will be eliminated. So your vote will exhaust and not go to any Labor candidate which effectively is a plus to the LNP, Palmer, ON etc lists.

    For Christ sake learn and understand preferential voting to avoid being a complete drag on getting the maximum Greens and Labor senators elected. You must give a preference at 13, 14 or where ever Ketter and Gilbert or the wrath of everyone will be on you (SDA or whatever notwithstanding).

  34. All the best tomorrow, ICanCU- and everyone else doing their bit against the forces of darkness.

  35. On the TAB Steggall has firmed into 1.53, Abbott 2.40
    Robertson similar to ALP
    Reid is again neck & neck
    Gilmore ALP into 1.30

  39. The next redistribution should be in around 20 months, with a new seat in Victoria, should they call it Hawke.

  40. Any hints from sky after dark about Newspoll? Musn’t be a good result then

    I reckon 51.5-49.5, maybe even a 52 to ALP

  41. I repeat my prediction from some weeks back… (does seem a bit more sensible now maybe) ..
    Lab 75
    Lib 70
    Grn 1
    Other 5
    ALP government with our Green giving them the balance of power!!!
    Goodnight all. Peace be with you tonight and success be with you tomorrow!

  43. Now nath at 9.15 joins in supporting the LNP ON, Palmer etc in the senate in Qld by endorsing Honest Bastard foolishness. You couldn’t make this stuff up. Same people who like to “Just Vote 1” in Queensland and exhaust.

  44. ICANCU @ #1318 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:30 pm

    Labor PB’ers just can’t get over the fact that Greens have the far better election night volunteer parties! Practising my most genuine charismatic smile for the HTV hand outs tomorrow. Come on Ryan toss this Liberal tosser!

    Well, as I recall you did promise to show your bare everythings running down the street. If you get your colleagues into the spirit it might be a night to remember.

  46. By the by ask a millennial what they were doing tomorrow night. Responded ‘why’ whats happening tomorrow night?

  47. mikehilliard says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:34 pm
    The only polling I follow is right here.

    Labor 79
    LNP 66
    Others 6

    Mike

    That is exactly the result I produced a few posts back using the seat odds method. Coincidence?

  49. Still I say

    84 ALP
    8 crossbench
    59 coalition

    Seats I think might be interesting, Farrar, Mallee, Indi, ACT Senate, Higgins, Tas and SA senate

  50. Just rewatching Hawke’s 83 National Press Club address where he flags suspicion on size of deficit Labor is going to inherit
    Fraser & Howard said $4 billion it was in fact over $9 billion…

    So much for Liberal financial management & today’s press for swallowing their crap.

    Lying rodent always been at it

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