Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 thoughts on “Election minus one day”

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  1. Final Newspoll revealed tonight on The Front Page at 11pm on @SkyNewsAust. Guests are @matt_killoran and @ItsMeChrisJones.

  3. Tim Lyons@Picketer
    3h3 hours ago
    Anyway, this is what Bob inherited as PM: business interest rates 41%, inflation 11%, unemployment 11%, 1.4% growth, Criminal tax avoidance for the wealthy, 3 in 10 kids finished high school, no Medicare and 20% of private sector workers had any super.

    The 3 kids in 10 completing high school is just shocking to me. That’s in my lifetime and something akin to a developing country indicator!

  5. Without being too specific, at prepoll HTV today I gleaned a couple of bits of “vibe”, one directly and one indirectly, from two people who I would think would have internal party knowledge and both were very positive.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a very good result tomorrow.

  6. You’ve only got to read Lars Von Trier’s posts to know why Young Liberals piss people off so mightily.

    I imagine he’s one of those pimply, slightly-overweight ones too.

  7. Not sure how I feel tonight. Probably bloody anxious. Cant see that Victoria will vote differently from 2018 State election but no idea about the rest of the Country.

    Put me down for 52.3:47.7

    Surprise: Menzies, gawd that would be beautiful.

    I too have missed Mod Lib, Psephos and Bemused, all partisans but articulate in their own kind of way.

  13. IMHO the narrowing is down to the unchallenged BS that the Coalition are good money managers and are lower taxing.

  14. I would like to see Labor with 80 (or more) seats so they have a buffer, beyond that i think its more useful to take some conservative scalps, so the LNP can (potentially) become something constructive.

    I want to see the back of at least Abbott, Dutton and Christensen plus at least one outlier from Porter, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge, Kevin Andrews, Michael Sukkar

  16. Some gutsier responses on Campaign trail. Middleton and the Herald sun? guy both saying they think the in will be relatively big. Finally some journos break away from the herd!!!

  17. Well I miss George Bludger and Finnigans. So there!

    And it’s , good night from me. I have a big day tomorrow. 🙂

  20. Rossmore @ #1249 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:53 pm

    Not sure how I feel tonight. Probably bloody anxious. Cant see that Victoria will vote differently from 2018 State election but no idea about the rest of the Country.

    Put me down for 52.3:47.7

    Surprise: Menzies, gawd that would be beautiful.

    I too have missed Mod Lib, Psephos and Bemused, all partisans but articulate in their own kind of way.

    Got it. 🙂

    FYI unless specified I am recording guesses as “Final. After all counting is finished.” (Mainly due to the uncertainty of who and when gets to announce the the number.) Let me know please if you wanted this to be an on-the-night guess.

  25. bug1 @ #1256 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    I would like to see Labor with 80 (or more) seats so they have a buffer, beyond that i think its more useful to take some conservative scalps, so the LNP can become something constructive.

    I want to see the back of at least Abbott, Dutton and Christensen plus at least one outlier from Porter, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge, Kevin Andrews, Michael Sukkar

    So many choices.

    #NoMoScoMo

  27. Rowan Dean followed byPaul Murray. Absolute lunatics…might have to switch back to BT…
    FYI Paul and Rowan are not voting labor and urge us to do the same and vote 1 for Molan below the line…

  28. ajm @ #1255 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:22 pm

    Without being too specific, at prepoll HTV today I gleaned a couple of bits of “vibe”, one directly and one indirectly, from two people who I would think would have internal party knowledge and both were very positive.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a very good result tomorrow.

    I won’t be surprised if we see closer to 90 than 80, given the problems with polling this time round, and Hawkie’s timely final contribution.

  29. The election night 2PP will be meaningless as there will be many non-classic contests where Labor and Coalition won’t be the final two. Those have to be recounted between Labor and Coalition to get the right 2PP.

  33. Someone I know who was working on the pre poll up in Fadden yesterday was very positive that there was a big swing going on against Stuart Robert up there, probably not enough for him to lose the seat, but his margin would be reduced substantially.
    Fadden might be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow night if 2 or 3 seats in South East Qld start falling

  34. Adrian Beaumont @ #1271 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:05 pm

    The election night 2PP will be meaningless as there will be many non-classic contests where Labor and Coalition won’t be the final two. Those have to be recounted between Labor and Coalition to get the right 2PP.

    Another, and much better, point. Thanks!

  35. Regarding predictions, the larger the pre-poll gets, the less we should assume it favours the Liberals. At 4 million + we are in uncharted territory. Obviously a lot of people are voting pre poll who do not normally do so.

    I find it hard to believe the vote moved towards the Libs since Hawke’s death. Worst case the previous status quo (51/49 to Labor) will be the result.

    I think Labor will win at least 78-80 seats and a majority. The hard bit will be the Senate. If PM Shorten can do any deals with the outgoing Senate to get anything passed quickly he should do so.

    So I’m looking forward to the spirit and values of RJ Hawke living on in the new Labor government. Night all.

  36. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 8:32 pm

    SK
    ‘The Promise of Australia’
    I feel a telemovie coming on.
    With Tory wimmin innit.

    Nah, it would have to be a musical!

    Strong beats and lots of clapping. 🙂

  38. It’d be good for the Liberals actually if Abbott, Dutton, Sukkar, a few other mad right wingers all went tomorrow night……….if you want the conservatives to become more moderate, that is

  40. Finished researching my personal Qld senate BTL vote. Thought I might post it here (don’t think there’s any rule against that).

    1. Lewis, Andrew (Independents For Climate Action Now)
    2. Lokkers, Cornel (Independents For Climate Action Now)
    3. Murray, Cameron (Sustainable Australia)
    4. Kennedy, Kirsten (Greens)
    5. Waters, Larissa (Greens)
    6. Kloot, Johanna (Greens)
    7. Bertram, Miranda (Greens)
    8. Ellis, Raelene (Greens)
    9. Sidhu, Navdeep (Greens)
    10. Major, Tania (ALP)
    11. Warry, Christina (ALP)
    12. Green, Nita (ALP)

    ALP included at the bottom but I weeded out any SDA aligned or otherwise dodgy looking ALP candidates. Suspect my vote will stop with Waters at position 5.

  41. BB ‘ABC TV tonight is one long infomercial for Labor.’

    Well that balances some of the rubbish the commercial stations dished up.

    I was disgusted at the ‘analysis’ provided by Neil Mitchell. Absolute dribble. Complained that Tanya Plib was nowhere to be seen….. She was on QandA on Monday and often interviewed by journalists.

    He made no mention of virtually the whole LNP not showing their faces during the campaign.

  45. @C@t (and others)

    I think I might know who Lars von Trier is (the poster here, not the film maker) in the real world, and if I’m correct it’s a woman.

  49. You just don’t get it do you guys like or lump it.it’s going to be a coalition win and three years of good coalition government and bill shorten will be crying into his beer

  50. Burgey

    That’s the guy who lost his seat at the State election. Didn’t see it coming. Which makes him about the least credible commentator going!

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