Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 thoughts on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 25 of 31
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  2. Upnorth yes Labor to win with around 79 seats. Some movement back to the Libs here but not sufficient to save Dutton (hopefully).

  4. I have a feeling in my waters that over 90% of Australians are going to vote as if they don’t care what Nicholas thinks.

  7. Booth report – all done at the Bangkok Booth. A long two weeks in some very hot conditions. I fear many will turn up tomorrow to vote and miss out. Labor has run a terrific campaign at many overseas polling stations.

    Today many remarked on Bob Hawkes death. Many also said Labor was their pick. More than the previous two weeks.

    One older guy mentioned “Labor Death Taxes” but all in all a great effort. Quietly confident.

  8. So correct me if I’m wrong..

    Despite the flurry of seat polls, there remain a bunch of marginal seats which have probably been polled but for which the results haven’t been released?

  9. ‘Confessions says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 8:23 pm

    Yes, Trog disappeared one day too.’

    He did say that he was stopping posting to concentrate on dealing with serious health issues.

  10. A notable Marshall government debacle in SA was their backtracking on a promise to alter the tram track arrangement at a critical intersection. Labor hadn’t done it, & provided excellent reasons for not doing so. Marshall’s lot made much of this, saying they’d do it in a canter. But they didn’t, it can’t be done for engineering reasons that were freely available before the election.
    Interestingly, the local Murdoch rag had an article that admitted that yes, Labor had been right & had given their reasons, but that could hardly be held against the Marshall government because, as was right & proper, no one listened to them.

  11. Switched to Sky News to hear some moron droning on about how conservatives are being hounded out of polling places because of some Labor/Greens ambition to turn the AEC into university campuses.

    Switches off.

    Wonders who in blazes watches that shit much less takes it seriously.

  12. C@t:

    I will be spending ALL DAY at Hardys Bay Community Church handing out, then scrutineering, then on to the Umina Bowlo for hopefully the Bellweather seat of Robertson, celebration of a Labor victory.

    I’ll be doing my bit tomorrow to see Anne elected and Wicks out on her arse!

  13. Doing my research (a bit late) for voting below the line in the senate tomorrow. And have just discovered that Cameron Murray, the author of Game of Mates, is a candidate in Queensland (for the Sustainable Australia party). He’ll make it into my top 12.

  15. C Ch
    You would be right in the sense that both parties would do continuous tracking polling which they would match with databases which they would calibrate to focus group work.
    I assume that these would be separate to, but perhaps complemented by, pollster seat specific polls such as those published yesterday.
    In other words the parties would have a much more accurate idea of what is happening that we would.

  16. LR

    “Hmm. I’m always open to suggestions, but at this late stage it might be unfair to earlier contributors. I could record a separate guess if you like?”

    Nah, no need to revise your methodology mate. I interpreted pre-poll as any vote cast other than on election day. My bad.

    I’ll be happier if my predicted 85 seats for ALP is on the money. 🙂

  18. There was an analysis earlier today on the pre-poll poll favouring LNP 53 to 47 ALP. From memory the analysis looked at the electorates showing higher pre-polling and compared that with the pre-poll results, looking for a bias that could be inferred from those electorates’ typical voting patterns. The conclusion was that the trend to the LNP could be easily explained by the higher percentage of pre-polling in electorates favouring the LNP. In other words it did not necessarily represent an across the board trend.

    Or something like that.

  20. Our great LNP have this election in the bag now and we will have another three years of a good coalition government

  21. Betting Newspoll will be something like 50.5 to Labor and 49.5 to the Coalition, so the media can run their narrative of a tightening election. Note, just my gut feeling, not based on any empirical evidence.

  22. “Despite the flurry of seat polls, there remain a bunch of marginal seats which have probably been polled but for which the results haven’t been released?”

    Cud
    Yep, and I reckon that’s a good omen for alp!
    If the fibs were doing well in all the marginals, the polls would be all over the msm.

  25. The Promise of Australia burns bright for Mr Morrison.
    He shall overcome!

    Howard overcame levels of uselessness that were at one stage widely considered to be insurmountable.

  26. Top 5 must sees on election night outside of PM/LOTO speeches:

    1) Tony Abbott Warringah – Will he speak? Being a masochist he will even if he loses?
    2) Franking Credit/ CGT changes – Will the Labor people on panels admit any mistakes?
    3) Bob Katter – always capable of some magnificent crazy shit
    4) Oakeshott – and the hate reaction from the Tories if he wins
    5) The Queensland mirage – any honesty from Labor about Adani ?

  27. Betting Newspoll will be something like 50.5 to Labor and 49.5 to the Coalition

    Newspoll will try very hard to get it right. It is the one time in the election cycle we can be (fairly) certain of it.

  29. https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/05/quantitative-take-election-odds/

    Purely as a matter of interest and without a great deal of confidence, I’ve had a go at applying the predictive method outlined in the above link, which is based on the respective seat odds of the parties.

    Allegedly this has been successful in predicting previous election outcomes.

    $1.01 to $1.18 = Very Likely
    $1.19 to $1.50 = Likely
    $1.51 to $1.80 = Maybe
    Above $1.80 = Toss Up

    Based on this formula, the results are as follows:
    Labor
    Very Likely – 65
    Likely – 9
    Maybe – 4
    Toss Up – 1
    Total – 79

    Coalition
    Very Likely- 42
    Likely – 10
    Maybe – 10
    Toss Up – 4
    Total – 66

    Indies – 6

    Total seats – 151

    In regard to the Indies, note that I have allotted Indi and Farrer to the Coalition, even though the latter seat is at $1.85 for both the independent and the Coalition. Warringah is at $1.44 for Steggall and Cowper is at $1.72 for Oakeshotte. The other four, including Bandt, are all at very short odds.

  31. No predictions from me. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

    And if I have a pessimistic thought I won’t post it here.

  33. Prize for the biggest wanker, with the most pretentious moniker?

    You guessed it, Lars von Trier.

    Reminds me of Clive James’ classic Unreliable Memoirs character: “Alain le Sands”.

  34. C@tmomma@8:09pm
    Yes no exit poll. This is just Ipsos and Galaxy poll (phone poll), where they ask questions like did they vote and intend to vote in pre-poll. In that it was reported as 53-47 for pre-poll. I do not know why davidwh thinks it is not scietific.

  36. Late mail. Starting to get Facebook messages from Smith in Casey. The response is terrible. He has received a ton of negative posts.

  38. According to Ipsos and Galaxy, the pre-poll broke 53-47 in LNP favour

    Total rubbish on this… pre-poll is a subset on voters polled & would be even more inaccurate than the overall poll.

  40. “DRDR , no probs. 3,141,601 it is. Suspiciously close to 3,141,593?”

    Oops. Was that someone’s prediction. Yours? TBH, I haven’t seen a list.

    D

  41. How’s this Victorian liberal bloke on with Karvelas saying that state is going to be ok for them. Give over, dickhead.

  42. BW please thank Bluey. He is one smart Cephalopod.

    My first stop to see what has happened during the day is Bluey’s report. Says it all.

    Also thank you for typing it up for Bluey. I am sure he could do it himself, but introducing a computer to his pool may have unintended consequences.

  43. Alan Shore @ #1211 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:25 pm

    C@t:

    I will be spending ALL DAY at Hardys Bay Community Church handing out, then scrutineering, then on to the Umina Bowlo for hopefully the Bellweather seat of Robertson, celebration of a Labor victory.

    I’ll be doing my bit tomorrow to see Anne elected and Wicks out on her arse!

    What a waste of political space she has been, huh? Couldn’t even get a spot on the Morrison front bench, even after helping to do his numbers for him! 😆

  44. The coalition as the election in the bag and we will have another three of good coalition government running our great nation and bill shorten crying into his beer

  45. A notable Marshall government debacle in SA was their backtracking on a promise to alter the tram track arrangement at a critical intersection.

    Proof that no issue is safe from Liberal bastardisation if they think there is a vote in it. Proof that the local media are incapable (unwilling) of holding the Liberals to account on even the most obvious BS.

  47. “Hawke and Keating were terrible economic policy makers prone to amateurish mistakes, and they deserve blame for worsening the problems of chronic unemployment, decreasing job security, and increasing inequality of wealth and income. But Medicare was a mighty achievement, as were the environmental protection decisions of those governments.”

    Isn’t amazing that there terrible mistake prone amateurs earned all those plaudits that they had. If only they knew that a zygote genius living in their midst. In suburb Brisbane no less.

  50. Cephalopods do not have a blind spot.

    In Bluey we trust. Bravo!

    And BW, his agent – thank you.

    (Wanted to have a beer for RJLH. Turns out all we have, inexplicably, is Carlton Zero.

    Well. Am old enough to remember Rubbery Figures lampooning John Elliott for liking beer, football and parties and buying CUB, Carlton and the Liberal Party, and am still scarred by the 1979 and 1981 grand finals. Surely you jest, universe.

    Single malt, then. Must get better organized for this time tomorrow.)

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