BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. nath

    Yes big in Chisholm – making the Box Hill transport hub and mini-CBD even more important. But the Liberals have absolutely given Chisholm away. I don’t think Morrison will be visiting or getting his photo with their candidate in the next three days.

  2. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:31 pm

    Thank God, Barney, I thought you’d lost it!

    Too many trips into the rabbit hole!

    Nah, one of the joys of travelling and only having a tablet. 🙂

  3. Rocket Rocket
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:47 pm
    nath
    Yes big in Chisholm – making the Box Hill transport hub and mini-CBD even more important. But the Liberals have absolutely given Chisholm away. I don’t think Morrison will be visiting or getting his photo with their candidate in the next three days.
    ______________________________
    It’s a great project, particularly linking Shopping centres and universities. Should be great for young people to get around to work and uni especially. I love it.

  4. I belong to an extended family of fruity, nutty brandy-butter Christians. They’re beyond loopy. I love them, but they’re mad. They evince beliefs in afterlives, including the possibility of eternal life and/or eternal damnation. I have never sought the full edition from them. The abridged version is too much for me. They hope I might come around. I haven’t the heart to break it to them. I think they’re delusional. I believe in our own being in time and space, such as it is, with all our flaws. That’s more than sufficient to be going on with. Nothing else is required. There is no mystery and no immortality.

  5. A report from the Tudgersphere aka Aston. well. In all my days, I have never seen the crypto fascist make such an effort in this seat. his corflutes are on every street corner. Also a fair number for the labor candidate. I have also viewed Tudge Libtard ads on Youtube which look pretty pricey. you know him speaking to camera. I reckon the arsehole is well spooked.

  6. There have been times when I wish I had the confidence or certainty that having a really deeply-held faith gives you… assuming you’re not an insufferable prick, evangelism drives me insane.

    Even as a kid I smelled a rat.

  7. Rocket Rocket says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:32 pm

    Barney

    I have never done classroom teaching in school – I just cringe on behalf of all teachers when I read these sort of articles.

    Has the wet set in in Saigon?

    Yep, it basically started as I reached the outskirts coming back.

    Today was about the first day since that’s been dry. 🙂

  8. nath@11:48pm
    Hell is not other people. Hell and Heaven is what we experience.
    We created our own ethics and morality
    Otherwise there is no difference between humans snd animals.

  9. modern or literal sense of many (many) terms in bible need to be checked often amended in terms of original meaning and context – eg. a dominant meaning for what is translated as homosexual has a strong sense in original language of pedophilia. Paul was rightly ranting against power structures that legitimated pedophile relations between head of family and slave boys, even roman boys, and explicit displays in temples. It s possible to argue that this is main meaning of several (few) comments on homosexuality by Paul.

    Likewise Hell has one dominant sense of hades, a neutral term for death – it is possible to read the Folau passage as saying Romans doing these crimes/sins using state power are dead in spirit and life Paul advocates.

    It s possible to argue Folau and countless others claiming to represent christian truth are simply bad scholars, uneducated, poorly educated and sham christians. this includes morrison, based on teachings of church of which he is a member. right wing evangelical swill.

  10. MichaelA, that might be true of some Christians, but it is certainly not true of all Christians. When they someone is going to hell it is because they don’t want them to go to hell, they want them to go to heaven. This is love not hate.

  11. having a deeply held faith does not give you a licence or freedom to say or do what you want

    one could count a thousand examples – in all religion – where belief is tempered or constrained by civil society

  12. As a gay person, it’s just marvelous seeing how this kind of thinking has ruined people’s lives.

    When the basic tenet of some people is “just don’t be that” or “just don’t do that” … is saying “there’s something wrong with you, and you need to change”. Whether the intent is hateful or not, the outcome is riddled with a dark, uninformed and dangerous misunderstandings of what humans are.

    My favourite was when I heard a story from a friend who explained to an elderly relative that there are celibate gay people… he apparently was left speechless, because people don’t understand that sexuality is inherent, the act is merely an offshoot (originally no pun intended, but I’ll own that with pride). You don’t suddenly become the sexuality you are when you hit puberty… it’s hardwired early.

    Thank God I was spared the torture that so many of my friends endured due the “love” of others.

  13. Edi_Mahin says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:00 am

    MichaelA, that might be true of some Christians, but it is certainly not true of all Christians. When they someone is going to hell it is because they don’t want them to go to hell, they want them to go to heaven. This is love not hate.

    If that’s their idea of love, then I certainly don’t want to share in it.

    It highlights the arrogance of their position, that they think it justifies imposing themselves and their beliefs on others.

  14. Making this about me rather than the beliefs of others in hell or heaven. My religious beliefs have to come first and if the law wants to stop me from acting on my religious beliefs then I am going to break the law and suffer the consequences. In Australia currently that is not a problem, although in some ways it is getting close. In other parts of the world, if I lived there, it would be a major problem.

  15. Edi_Mahin says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:09 am

    Making this about me rather than the beliefs of others in hell or heaven. My religious beliefs have to come first and if the law wants to stop me from acting on my religious beliefs then I am going to break the law and suffer the consequences. In Australia currently that is not a problem, although in some ways it is getting close. In other parts of the world, if I lived there, it would be a major problem.

    How is it becoming close in Australia?

    What things can’t you do when you travel?

  16. Barney,
    I really do not understand where you are coming from. It is an act of love to bring someone to an understanding of how they can live forever. It is an act of hate to not tell so they do not have an opportunity to live forever.
    When a parent teaches a child how to cross the road so that they live it is because they love them. Same when a believing person teaches someone about God so that the live for ever it is because they love them.

  17. Making this about me rather than the beliefs of others in hell or heaven. My religious beliefs have to come first and if the law wants to stop me from acting on my religious beliefs then I am going to break the law and suffer the consequences. In Australia currently that is not a problem, although in some ways it is getting close. In other parts of the world, if I lived there, it would be a major problem.

    So, can I say this as well if my religious beliefs involve honour killings?

  18. Rational Leftist you can say it and act on it but be prepared to suffer the consequences of being charged with murder after you have done it.
    I think honour killings are horrific and should not happen.

  19. Edi Mahin

    What laws are stopping you from acting on your religious beliefs in Australia and what consequences will you suffer?

    You need to be careful just what your saying.

    Are you aware such comments may come to the attention of certain authorities?

    William?

  20. Sorry, I misread the consequences part. I thought you were just stating that you should be able to break the law if your religious convictions say so without consequence.

  21. If a religious freedoms bill is enacted I am going to convert to Rastafarianism and demand that I have the right to freely partake in non-medicinal ‘erbs.

  22. As far as I understand though, other than violent fanatics, most people’s religious views aren’t really interfered with by secular law. Maybe if you’re a marriage celebrant or something who is morally against same sex marriage but, even then, how much are religious marriage celebrants actually forced to marry couples that go against their religious moral beliefs? (I don’t mean what’s technically in law – I mean what the actual practice is.)

  23. Been There, there are no laws currently in Australia, I did not say there were such laws. I have not ever deliberately broken any laws because of my religious beliefs. Perhaps some of my comments in expressing my beliefs might come close to some anti-hate or anti-discrimination laws. I am not sure on that but I am not deliberately breaking those laws.

  24. I’ve just done a letter-box drop in Kooyong (for Labor, naturally) and collected my own post for the evening. It includes a Julian Burnside flyer with a very interesting endorsement.

    The Liberals need a wake-up call. I urge the voters of Kooyong to vote for Julian Burnside. He’s a man of vision and integrity, exactly what Australian politics desperately needs

    Ian Macphee, AO, Former Liberal Minister

  25. Edi_Mahin says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:00 am
    MichaelA, that might be true of some Christians, but it is certainly not true of all Christians. When they someone is going to hell it is because they don’t want them to go to hell, they want them to go to heaven. This is love not hate.
    *********************
    Or perhaps, delusional.

  26. Rational Leftist,
    I think the current laws do not force anyone to marry someone they do not want to marry, whether this might change in the future I do not know.

  27. Edi_Mahin says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:15 am

    Barney,
    I really do not understand where you are coming from. It is an act of love to bring someone to an understanding of how they can live forever. It is an act of hate to not tell so they do not have an opportunity to live forever.
    When a parent teaches a child how to cross the road so that they live it is because they love them. Same when a believing person teaches someone about God so that the live for ever it is because they love them.

    Don’t you see the arrogance in your belief that you are absolutely right?

    There many forms of Christianity and many different religions with one fairly similar element, most think their version is absolutely right.

    How can this be true?

  28. Edi Mahin

    You’re sending mixed messages.

    You need to be clearer in what you mean about breaking laws and consequences.

    I’m not denying your religious beliefs, nor are others here, it’s just the way you express them.

  29. That is very interesting. I am especially interested in volcanic eruptions where there is a local indigenous record such as Mount Gambier. But those two in the article – it is hard to imagine what would be the consequences in the modern world were something like them to happen near a mega-city today.

    “Nobody knows” is a pretty good first approximation to anything involving volcanoes…

    The Volcanoes Discovery Centre is worth a look; there’s a bit on Mt. Gambier:
    http://volcanoesdiscoverycentre.com.au/

    Victorian Volcanoes doesn’t include Mt. Gambier, but has some nice photos:
    http://www.victorianvolcanoes.com/

  30. Been There.

    I think I have been quite clear but if you have not understood what I have said then I obviously have not been. Sorry.
    If the law, for example, said I could not be a Christian it will not stop me being a Christian. Now that is not going to happen in Australia, although overseas the situation is different. However if I was a Christian against the law and got caught then I would expect to be punished by the authorities and would have to accept the consequences.
    When I am writing I have the Bible in my mind but I do not think it is the place to start quoting the Bible.
    Given the time this will probably be my last post tonight.

  31. Edi_Mahin says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:16 am

    Barney, go to Iran and try and be a Christian.

    I suppose it comes down to what you mean by “try and be a Christian.”

    I’ve met a number of people who have traveled in Iran, Western Christian background, and they had nothing but good things to say about their experiences there.

    It’s certainly a place high on my list of places to go, in fact I’ve already started some research about the possibility of living there for a year or so.

    It’s a majority Muslim Country and as in any such majority Country, minorities often experience discrimination and prejudice, it even happens in Australia.

    As a guest you show respect for their culture and don’t impose your ways on them.

    So it comes back to my original question,

    what you mean by “try and be a Christian”?

  32. Edi_Mahin says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:52 am

    Barney, not all religion can be true.

    So, if they’re not all true, then that raises the possibility that none of them are.

    Alternately, if there is one true religion, how do you know it’s yours, when everyone else thinks it’s theirs?

    There lies the arrogance of absolute belief.

  33. just went to Youtube to try and relax and the first thing I see is a Liberal ad.

    Subscribing to YouTube Premium (formerly YouTube Red) was one of the best decisions I’ve ever made!

  34. Saw Jim Molan , #4 on the NSW L/NP senate ticket on Sky tonight. Has many Electorates handing out his alternative HTV recommending voting for him below the line.
    NP #3 on joint ticket has retaliated with all NP supporters asked to ignore party ticket and encourage friends to do likewise.
    This is Scummos ‘united behind me ‘ mob showing their instability and chaotic true selves.
    The leader will no doubt say this is an administration matter and nothing to do with him. He is incapable of handling problems, just runs away.
    One thing that has become obvious during this campaign is his ability to duck, weave, deflect and bend the truth (lie?) on numerous occasions. He will not answer simple questions and reporters should have exposed this defect long ago.
    Very Trump like and it worked for the Donald.
    Interesting that all Liberal candidates are incapable of doing an interview or answering a question if Scummo is with them. He must believe he is the smartest one in the room wherever he goes.

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