BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 31
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  2. Longman is back in play according to the Australian. Have to see some numbers before you could say things are interesting there.

  3. Kelly O’Dwyer just rang me to tell me what a wonderful person Katie Allen is …. Blah blah. Short and sweet.

    What I thought was interesting was the acknowledgment that it was Kelly O’Dwyer speaking on the behalf of the Liberal Party at the start of the call. At least I think that was what it said as it was said a breakneck speed that I missed most of it.

    Would this be legal?

  5. ‘booleanbach says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    Not just RoeVsWade in danger in the US, but the whole shebang.
    I think we have already seen the last of that democracy.’

    Sick, but not dead yet.

  6. Boerwar @ #1093 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:19 pm

    ‘Diogenes says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:16 pm

    I wonder how well it’s going to go down here when Bill offers Julie B the US ambassadorship.’

    Not very well, I imagine. After all, the Coalition has in the past few months put a couple of hundred third rate sleeve tuggers, thugs and assorted carpet baggers into taxpayer-funded positions.

    There were recent reports that Melania was quite peeved about Bishop’s comments that melania thought Bishop’s partner was the Foreign Minister when they met.

    If true, then bishop is not a good fit in the short term.

  7. brett @ #1043 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:47 pm

    I invite you all to peruse the Queensland Senate ballot paper – consider that a 50-50 split is the best Labor can hope for, and then perhaps you will cease heaping scorn upon the much maligned Clive. Clive, the absentee Senator could be one of the best gifts one could hope for from the fine electors of Queensland. Otherwise you could have Pauline’s (still?) mate Mal, her ex-mate Fraser, Cory’s mate and former Christian lobbyist, Lyle and all of them pretty much breaking even with Slomo’s fine feathered friend, Gerry. I know we’re all facing our own litany of woe in every State, but Queensland is particularly blessed.

    Imagine my angst having to put 3 against LNP at the High Commission. The alternatives were even worse! And only just found 6 non-crazy options on the Queensland Senate bollot paper to mark above the line. Soooo much crazy from the right side.

  8. ‘michael says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    …according to the Australian…’

    Uh huh. That has the same connection to reality as ‘The Greens propose…’

  11. Thanks Steve777 yes I think you would add the number of senators. Still I think with 60 for NSW and so on, ScoMo would be declared President by the Australian electoral college, or have I got the maths wrong?

    Would Martin Sheen be present for the swearing in?

  12. Longman isn’t even in the list of seats to be shown in the polls tomorrow so I don’t know what the Australian is talking about.

  17. “Peter Dutton will make a great PM and he will win his seat of Dickson 58/42 and he will be PM sometime in the next term of parliament”

    Wayne I know yer taking the piss!
    keep em coming. I enjoy your predictions.

  20. The Mark Bouris robocall does not have an authorisation. On the other hand he does not mention any political party despite promoting the Coalition’s housing tax policy. This is probably legal but strikes me as a loophole in the current laws

  21. Re: Rowe’s “Game of Tones” cartoon, I’m interpreting the upside-down Australian Aboriginal flag as an emergency signal.

    Also, I assume the fire-breathing dragon is “Unions” – but could it be “Onions”?

  22. ‘Vogon Poet says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:26 pm

    Does being bitten by the psyhic croc make you a winner or a loser though ?’

    I asked Bluey about this. He reckons crocs are crocks when it comes to political wisdom.

  23. doyley

    “I cannot believe that the Prime Minister has not immediately said that gay people will not go to hell.”

    That’s a direct reference to Morrison’s (wacky) religious beliefs.

  24. Boerwar
    Sick, but not dead yet.

    It’s all up to the Mueller house testimony & NY southern district claim to get Trumps tax returns..

    Less than a 50/50 chance to expose Trump

  27. Surely the line is gay people will not go to hell because they are gay. Surely atheist gay people will still go to hell because they are atheists?

  31. Until Saturday night any and every seat will be “ in play” according to the MSM. Just take your pick.

    This election in particular will be , and always has been, a contest of who has the best ground campaign in particular targeted seats across the country. It will not be about national or seat polling and uniform swings it will not be about betting markets and moves up and down. It will be about a down and dirty ground campaign. A bit like the Russian front during WW2.

    I would back on labor, change the rules and get up volunteers against anything the Tories can put up.

    We shall see.

  35. Longman – gone for the ALP?

    Trivia question – apart from Rudd when was the last time Labor won a majority federally in QLD?

  37. hungry jack says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 6:32 pm
    there is a substantial campaign going on in churches for ‘religious freedom” (whatever that means)

    129 schools are lobbying children and parents – to oppose labour – virtual HTV

    repres of main churches have collectively met in past week issued proclamation which whistle blows pro liberal vote

    morrison denies any knowledge even though his church (and assemblies of god across country) would all pray for him and his role in saving australia from godless labor.

    when pressed, morrison screams infringement of freedom and offence

    may be go down into a long neverending political purgatory

    This was always going to happen – see the Australian Christian Lobby website (the ACL is basically a mouthpiece for the happy clapper types).

    Of course not all their followers will do as they are told. Also, there are many other churches not doing this. For example, the Uniting Church website has pretty much the opposite message for the election.
    https://assembly.uca.org.au

  38. ““I cannot believe that the Prime Minister has not immediately said that gay people will not go to hell.”

    That’s a direct reference to Morrison’s (wacky) religious beliefs.”

    If it was about his a religion, then i would have thought you would be saying the complete opposite to what Shorten said.

  39. Boer – I’m not sure why Bluey is for this sad remnant of the group voting ticket, this last scrap of control the parties have over our preferences, but I suspect it must have something to do with Penny Wong’s valiant defence of the Senate cross bench from having to gain preferences via actual voter preferences instead of dodgy deals. I too am often persuaded by Penny Wong, but she’s had to say some pretty weird things over the years; like that she, and our atheist prime minister reckon marriage equality is not cool and that 220k Labor voters should prefer Bob Day over Stirling Griff because that’s the deal. Sometimes our heroes have to toe the party line even when they know it’s madness. I still love Penny but I’m not going to listen when her eyes glaze over and she says the words she has to say but doesn’t believe. So burn the line. All the dividing lines.

  40. Since Friday (post postie), there have been six pieces of LNP negative leaflets, and one ALP positive leaflet. Someone’s panicking….

    Still getting Lib mailbox stuff here in Mayo. Really over it.
    Today I even got a letter from the Prime Minister of Australia.

    And more surprising, I got a flyer from the splendid ALP candidate.

  43. Maybe this is the poll newsltd talking about

    Liberal National Party
    Trevor Ruthenberg looks set to win Longman with a massive late move towards him , to win close to a margin of 55/45

    The Australian special seat by seat poll reports 28th July 2018

  44. In 2016 the only reason Turnbull did not get to 78 seats was Hanson due to preferences to Labor in Herbert and Longman. The LNP may not be a million miles away in Longman, can’t believe this report is total garbage.

  48. Diogenes,

    No. That is in response to Morrison avoiding a direct answer on whether gay people will go to hell from a journo the day before. Why did Morrison not answer yes or no when he had the opportunity ?

    Taking your interpretation the journo should also be accused of having a go at the religious beliefs of Morrison by asking the initial question ?

  49. Looks to me like Howard is one of those heads on a stick to the left.

    Turnbull, Kevin, and ???

    Keating and Dutton are doing the “I’m watching you” gesture at each other.

  50. Something strange in the neighbourhood if Labor is going to lose Longman.

    Maybe there is a late breaking swing coming to save ScoMo?

    Very very strange – it seems extraordinary.

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