Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

Comments Page 6 of 27
1 … 5 6 7 … 27

  1. ltep says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:51 am
    “following the trend of the nsw state election”

    And what a glorious result for Labor that was!

    —————–

    The trend showed every time the libs/nats primary vote decline , they lose seats

    the point i am making , if the opinion polls are showing the federal libs/nats combined primary vote is lower than it was in 2016 , the libs/nats are going to lose seats , like in the nsw state election

  3. mundo

    I meant Turnbull and Abbott, of course I did. That was a criminal act and has also encouraged more clumping in the areas with the ‘genuine’ NBN.

  4. ”
    zoomster says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:42 am
    Ven

    I saw on twitter that William is tracking which seats the leaders visit. If you ask him nicely, he might give you a link to this.
    ”
    Thanks zoomster for your advice. 🙂
    Whenever I asked WB, I always asked nicely. 🙂

  5. If as I expect Labor win this climate election handsomely, Bill Shorten will go down in history as the man who singlehandedly shifted the climate change dial from short term ‘what will it it cost for me?’ To the much higher costs of inaction. This is a very significant moment in history for which there will be no turning back. The world may have a chance and Bill will be our saviour.

  6. TV ads: I’ve seen a few Lib attack ads, they have been universally terrible. One Labor attack ad, likewise terrible. But, I’ve also seen a couple of unrelentingly positive team-based Labor ads, they really stand out from the dross.

    No idea if any of these ads have any effect, I rarely watch commercial TV and never live (except for some footy) so I’ve only ever seen any ads by accident. I suspect I’m not alone, FTA doesn’t have the audience it used to, especially among younger people.

  7. I like Keating, a lot. And his way with words is absolutely wonderful at times.

    However, I reckon that, at times, he does not give credit where it is due. Eg NBN Mk I (now vandalised by the incumbents); Climate Change legislation under Gillard (now razed by the incumbents); and, yes mundo, NDIS brought about, in no small measure, by Bill Shorten, I believe (looking somewhat sickly at the moment under the incumbents).

    All big ideas for the common weal!

  8. Regardless of the result of this election, the Liberal-National Coalition will become more conservative. The “moderates” of the party are being replaced by more conservative members, such as Celia Hammond replacing Julie Bishop in Curtin. Kelly O’Dwyer, Malcolm Turnbull and Julia Banks are also all leaving. Craig Laundy is vacating Reid.
    The fulcrum of power will fundamentally shift to the Right.
    Three years of impotent Labor, castrated by a hostile Senate with Hanson holding the balance of power, is not a disaster for Australia, considering that in 2022 we may usher in a new golden Conservative age which will be entrenched for a generation.

  10. Joy!!

    The intense, sustained attack on @TonyAbbottMHR in Warringah is probably unprecedented and has done serious damage to his re-election prospects, writes Maurice Newman #auspol #ausvotes

  12. There is a big difference between the national ALP and the NSW ALP. Daley concentrated on stadiums,stadiums,stadiums and little else. They (ALP ) didn’t come across as having a vision for the state.
    On the other hand federal Labor has vision for the nation and that is the difference. Don’t underestimate the hate that the NSW ALP generated towards themselves with the antics of O’Bied etc……it will take a long time for that to wash away.

  13. I agree with Kos Samaras. The LnP aren’t going to know what hit them in VIC – so bad the rest of the country will be almost irrelevant.

  15. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:42 am

    Ven

    I saw on twitter that William is tracking which seats the leaders visit. If you ask him nicely, he might give you a link to this.

    He’s posted the link a few times here, usually in his top of thread piece.

    The last one was only a day or so ago.

  16. Darc

    Hear hear.

    I am glad you included the Climate Legislation.

    Changing the fundamental way the economy operates is indeed a big idea. Lord Stern did well with the Carbon Price and Gillard did introduce world best practice.

    Up there with another big idea. Plain Packaging for cigarettes, part of the change to prevention first model of healthcare.

  18. booleanbach says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:39 am

    I guess the thing that depresses me most about Australia at the moment is the fact that a ‘Party’ that is bereft of vision, plans & goals; that delights in tearing down our environment our social constructs & our identity, and a party that is in conflict with itself, is still in with a chance.
    That almost 40% of the population believe they should be re-elected is hard to accept.

    So, i will keep on with the wishful thinking and stick with my 91+ seats on Saturday, just in case my fellow Australians prove me wrong.

    ————————————

    You’ve got it spot on Boolean. That’s exactly how I’ve been feeling, more so than in any recent election.

    As you say, when you look at the two offerings and the people behind them, how can 49 per cent of our fellows choose the status quo, which is very very quo.

    But I’m sticking with my 82 seat forecast that I made at the start of the campaign.

  20. I said 76 seats for Labor yonks ago and stick by that.

    Nevertheless, Boothby will be ver close. Wait and see.

  21. Edi_Mahin says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:00 am
    Why is Morrison in Adelaide if Boothby is safe?

    ——————————————-
    Good question
    Particular if the primary vote was 47%

  22. Simon Birmingham’s last comment on Q&A last night was (apparently) “We are not promising the earth”.
    No, they are not.
    In fact what they are promising is a scorched Earth.

  23. Are breakdowns of election spending ever published? The amount of tv ads from the Fibs compared to Labor is huge. Watched Foyles War last night on a minor channel and even there the ad breakdown was 3 or 4 to 1 and that doesn’t include Palmer.

  24. “I assume that Mr Keating doesn’t count the ALP’s NBN (Mk I under Rudd/Gillard) or its climate change legislation (under Gillard) as ‘big ideas’?”

    He’s been on record praising both as exactly the ‘big ideas’ worthy of being ranked alongside the Hawke-Keating reforms.

  25. jenauthor says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:04 am

    Bill talking in Bernie

    That must be uncomfortable for both of them!

  26. A_E,

    Thanks for reminding me of that. The problem with Mr Keating’s one liner this morning is that it puts the ALP in the same basket as the LNP regarding ‘big ideas’, which it is not.

  28. Edi_Mahin says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:00 am

    Why is Morrison in Adelaide if Boothby is safe?

    Because they have a RWFW Member in supposedly their most progressive marginal seat in SA. 🙂

  30. jenauthor says: Bill talking in Bernie

    I would prefer it was english but if the Bernese don’t object……..lol ( Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.! )

  32. For the nervous people.

    The press gallery is saying voters are not listening to the campaigns.

    So we have had the narrowing. That means at its best for the LNP Newspoll is saying Labor wins. That’s the bottom line. There are no massive changes in the 2pp. There is volatile changes in the preferences story as those disillusioned on the right look for a new home.

  36. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:09 am
    Thanks Joanne. I know you mean well, but I’m getting my grieving in early. That way I won’t be distracted when I pack for NZ next week.

    Is there any way we could persuade you pack right now and head off today. It would also be a bonus if you could take Mundo with you.

    Some quiet time amongst the sheep and the kiwis would be an excellent tranquilizer for the two of you, as well as a big relief for the rest of us.

  39. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:09 am
    Thanks Joanne. I know you mean well, but I’m getting my grieving in early. That way I won’t be distracted when I pack for NZ next week.

    AE

    Is there any way we could persuade you pack right now and head off today. It would also be a bonus if you could take Mundo with you.

    Some quiet time amongst the sheep and the kiwis would be an excellent tranquilizer for the two of you, as well as a big relief for the rest of us.

  41. Balaclava Brown says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:07 am

    Are breakdowns of election spending ever published? The amount of tv ads from the Fibs compared to Labor is huge. Watched Foyles War last night on a minor channel and even there the ad breakdown was 3 or 4 to 1 and that doesn’t include Palmer.

    I’ve seen references to groups tracking different advertising in past elections and using this to calculate relative spending.

    I haven’t noticed any references this time, but there’s no reason to think they’re not doing the same this time.

  42. Shorten is feeling free and confident in allowing his supporting shadow ministers to do the talking.
    As for the Morrison party . . . . ?

  44. “Nostradamus
    Sounds unbelievably bloody awful.”

    Yes, it does sound unbelievably awful – for the LEFT – which comprises most of the people on this forum and a tiny minority of mainstream Australian society.

  45. mundaro says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:02 am

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #247 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:54 am

    ltep says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:46 am

    I’m sorry Nath. I’d give you an AC if I could.

    For service to fuckwittery!

    How come you changed your name Barney?

    There are places you should never go to, but you sometimes venture there nonetheless! 🙂

  46. My predictions

    1 The 2 pp is 52.4% ALP on Election Day

    2 Seat count is 84 ALP, 9 cross bench, 58 for the 4 party coalition (LPA, NPA, LNPQ and CLP)

    3 Senate, Dogs breakfast

    4 on 18 June 2019 redistribution will be announced for Victoria which will gain 1 seat, WA which will lose 1 seat and possibly one or both Territories which will lose a seat, bringing the parliament after this one to either 1149, or 150 or 151 seats

    Good luck to those handing out have a great day, particularly if you support the team I do

  47. Scott Morrison says he is running for Prime minister , someone needs to explain to Morrison that Australians do not vote like that in federal elections .

Comments Page 6 of 27
1 … 5 6 7 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *