No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
Steve777 @ #172 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:01 am
That’s much is true. However Labor should at least be able to match every Liberal attack ad on TV (and elsewhere) with an equally effective one of its own. The Libs are supposedly close to broke and spending what little they do have on letting party figureheads run vanity campaigns in their own, supposedly safe, seats. Labor should be able to match and exceed their efforts everywhere else, but hasn’t done so as far as anyone can tell.
I can’t believe the pessimism from some of the posters here (or optimism, if seen from the opposite point of view). Labor has a decisive lead. Any change over the past month has been microscopic at most. There won’t be any change in the next four days. And a quarter of the votes have already been cast.
Barring black swans, Labor will win. It’s just a matter of the margin.
bug1 says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:53 am
Honest Government Ad | Preferential Voting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bleyX4oMCgM
Don’t agree with the description of labor, but I do love the advertisement.
Labor’s ’72 election win is described by a some as a landslide. It wasn’t: 8 seats, a 2.50% swing. The nearest Labor enjoyed a landslide was in ’83 (24 seats; 3.6% swing), closely followed in 2007 (23 seats; 2.70% swing). This election is unlike the aforementioned, where the incumbent Tory/Country Party governments were “really” on the nose. Labor will form government on Saturday, with a workable majority. Remember, Menzies won the ’61 election by two seats, on the back of Communist Party preference (James Killen). So what I’m suggesting is that a win is a win, is a win.
Christ, the pants-wetting from some here is tiresome.
With the dearth of polls one can turn to the betting markets. I believe they usually correctly predict the result in marginals almost 50% of the time.
“Liberal voters returning to the fold after their anger at the way Turnbull and JBishop were treated.”
***
It’s probably also because of the decline of One Nation. Pauline’s core supporters will probably buy her excuses and think she’s somehow the victim. Most of her rusted on support is from Queensland though. I think/hope it will be a very bad election for One Nation outside of Qld.
I assume that Mr Keating doesn’t count the ALP’s NBN (Mk I under Rudd/Gillard) or its climate change legislation (under Gillard) as ‘big ideas’?
Toby Esterhase @ #202 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:21 am
What pants-wetting? None of the recent polling chatter has moved Betfair (or Sportsbet) one way or the other. Labor is back in to $1.60 in Dickson. Warringah is still a tossup. All good signs that point to a very good outcome.
Leon @ #203 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:21 am
So you’re saying, let’s just flip some coins and use that. 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #173 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:31 am
I find it difficult to believe that you are a seasoned campaigner.
I mostly ignore add on TV but I did notice a number of Labor attack the LNP adds last night among the The Bill We Can’t Afford multiples.
Whether anybody pays attention to these I have no idea.
Brown Bear and Bobo Bear remain shtum on the subject and apparently care not a whit about the behavior of weird people.
I would suggest that if a Black Swan event occurs – somebody with grand dads vintage fowling piece will be asking for a suitable recipe for an accompanying sauce.
Bon chance mes amis. ☮☕
Thanks for the stuff about blocking posters.
There are few here who drive me nuts.
Andrew_Earlwood
My reading of the campaign thus far has seen Shorten and Labor extensively campaigning in Coalition seats, on the attack. Defensive campaigning has been as rare as hens teeth. Tell me haw many forays has Shorten made to either Herbert or Lindsay,hmm?
Also, whilst working that one out, tell me how many Labor marginals has Morrison made attacking forays into?
Tasmania comes to mind, but I also note he gave that up a couple of weeks ago, tells a story , hey??
Morrison’s entire campaign has been mostly defensive forays into his own seats, marginals and safe seats, yes safe seats.
Follow your own advice and follow the leaders, there IS a story there, and it is NOT about lies and statistics.
So………………..Bludgertrack currently has the seat count at 79/72 to the ALP.
Below 80 for the ALP will be a little disappointing but i’ll take it. 🙂
Interesting comparison between latest newspoll Vic numbers and the outcome of the November 18 Election. Author is Assistant state secretary of ALP Victoria. Very similar give or take 1-2%.
It’s going to be a Lib massacre down here.
https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1128076184728657920
ImaccA
I have had 77 seats to Labor stuck in my head for ages. I am hoping to be wildly wrong.
Who is correct and who is wrong: Newspoll (predicting a relatively modest but clear win by the ALP) or the Betting Agencies (predicting a far more substantial win for the ALP)?…
… Not long to wait now!
Exactly Red… it’s resources, not stats… even those aren’t bad lol
It would be fascinating to step into a parallel Universe where NewsPoll hadn’t adjusted its methodology and Labor was currently polling 52 – 53%. 🙂
Thanks GG
Love your posts!!
I’m considering putting a $200 wager on the Coalition winning ($5.50-$7, depending on the venue) or Queensland winding up with 10 Labor seats or less (Ladbrokes offering $8.50 for this), so that at least I have some consolation if the Morriscum government is re-elected.
I’m just wondering which of these is the better deal. Logically, is it possible for the Coalition to win the election if Labor gets 11 seats or more in Qld? This would be a $1450 profit, enough for me to feel some solace in the event of a negative ouctome.
About that seat poll for Higgins, the most unrealistic thing about it is the Liberals on 36% primary. This is a seat which has never, in its history, gone to preferences. I’m not saying Labor or the Greens can’t win, but 36%? Catch a tram to Reality Street.
”
Tell me haw many forays has Shorten made to either Herbert or Lindsay,hmm?
Also, whilst working that one out, tell me how many Labor marginals has Morrison made attacking forays into?
”
Red13
Herbert – may be 2; Lindsay -1
Morrison- Lindsay – 2 or 3; Dobell – 1
Q and A last night.
I think you have to feel sorry for someone like Tanya Plibersek; she is doing real politics knowing she will probable be in a real Government. On her left was Richard Di Natale, a man who will never be in a Government and who is so used to stacking it on Labor he miss spoke and said Labor when he was stacking it on the Liberals. To her right was Simon Birmingham, a man who could talk rubbish under wet cement, a man who knows they have stuffed it up and knows they won’t be seeing the font bench for a long while. He to can say any sort of nonsense he likes to.
She looked tied; but she listened and commented. If I had to put up with that nonsense I would have said you both full of shit, tuned out and gone to sleep.
Weird the Coalition is polling better in NSW now than 2016 & having come back from 54-46 to Labor. And I thought the rural’s were turning away from the Nats in droves.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #216 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:35 am
It’s interesting that Morgan found others ( ie not greens) splitting to Labor roughly 50/50 in their polling.
Red13 @ #217 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:36 am
Me too!
Shellbell
Was Keating asked if Bowen is as good as he was?
Obvious rejoiner would be .. son no one is as good as I was
I’ve decided not to block anyone because that’d be just like ONLY reading the Australian, if you know what I mean….I fear no poster on this site!
Ven
I saw on twitter that William is tracking which seats the leaders visit. If you ask him nicely, he might give you a link to this.
Leon on betting markets. “I believe they usually correctly predict the result in marginals almost 50% of the time.” Are you serious?
Betting agencies don’t predict results – they mostly just frame markets based on the weight of betting by punters and to provide for their cut. The exception is mainly the odds on ON or Greens etc to form govt – these are sucker odds but should be much higher.
Cameron C.
qld seats is a better deal.
Dutton and abbott to both lose @3.00 is a good tempter!
Cameron C
If you can afford to lose $200, then the differences aren’t significant.
I must I don’t get the doom and gloom over a set of PAST state results.
NSW especially, will be coloured by the state election.
If Qld is 50/50 and Viv is 54/46 … “all over man”
Qld at 50/50 is telling when the Fibs has so many seats compared to ALP.
Seriously – it seems many are jumping at shadows.
I’d take Tingle’s statement from last night (where the libs themselves concede as many as 15 seat) as more indicative. They aren’t going to say that if they were feeling even remotely confident.
And I honestly think the ‘attack ads’ are generally seen for what they are. Propaganda.
mikehilliard says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:38 am
Weird the Coalition is polling better in NSW now than 2016 & having come back from 54-46 to Labor. And I thought the rural’s were turning away from the Nats in droves.
—————-
If the opinion poll is accurate it shows
The libs/nats combined primary vote is 1.2% lower than it was at the 2016 federal election
VP
Looking at the AEC figures, last election basically everyone (statistically speaking) who voted Cathy McGowan 1 put Labor 2. Certainly she pulled more votes from Labor (over two elections) than she did from the Coalition.
So splitting her preferences 50/50 would be totally misleading.
Victoria @ #213 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:33 am
Victoria has probably blocked me so would someone tell her that Mundo has the same number in his head. Thank you.
The world would be a better place if we just respected each others views.
Kumbyah, my Lord, Kumbyah…..
I think the idea of the NBN as universal infrastructure was brilliant. Tragedy it was effed up because of politics.
bug1 says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:19 am
I suspect the weakness of polls to predict seats numbers will be exposed this election due to more extreme targeting of specific seats, especially ministers, by groups like Getup, Unions, stop-Adani etc.
Bludgertrack takes into account national and state swings, incumbency (or not), and comes up with with George Christensen holding Dawson by 0.5%, it cant take into account the personal baggage he has collected in the last 3 years which is being aired. Betting markets can.
(not meant as a slight against your excellent work WB)
National polls samples are usually around 1,600 voters, or just over 10 per federal electorate. While the polls can and do measure aggregate opinions/intentions, they just cannot harvest intentions at the level of seats or areas within seats, and likewise nor can they measure the effect of field campaigns in specific seats. However, it is possible to use tracking polls to measure these effects. There’s no doubt at all that field campaigns do shift votes. These campaigns have been huge in this election. They will enable Labor to win target Lib-held seats and to defend its own seats and will determine not only whether Labor wins but the scale of the result.
These campaigns feed real-time data into the total campaign effort. They are also aimed at finding undecided voters and at persuading them to vote Labor. These cohorts are very large. They will decide the election. Labor is interested in them and can communicate with them in ways the Liberals cannot.
This alone is enough to decide the election for Labor.
I’m sorry Nath. I’d give you an AC if I could.
Keating on Palmer in Fiji – “I wish he’d stay there. Buy a hotel and bury himself under it.”
Good Morning
AM
It’s a seat poll. How big the primary vote fall is open to question as a result. I refer you to William’s cynic comment.
What makes it believable is the Hawthorn result in the state election
Nsw will not be that seat friendly wise to the libs/nats , the libs/nats combined primary vote is on the decline , following the trend of the nsw state election
Darc @ #205 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:25 am
or the NDIS?
lizzie @ #234 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:46 am
It was effed up because of the Liberal Party, specifically Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.
“following the trend of the nsw state election”
And what a glorious result for Labor that was!
I really liked John Pesutto for a lib.
That hawthorne result was crazy.
ltep, Labor started a million seats behind at the NSW State election ffs. It was never going to win it.
jenauthor @ #230 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:44 am
Actually I think they might say that if they’re feeling like their losses will be safely in the 5-10 seat range (or less). Then they can point at the 10-15 seat loss prediction and say “hey look, we overperformed!”.
ltep says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:46 am
For service to fuckwittery!