Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. Hey, I just got polled. It went for about 10 minutes answering questions over the phone. Just a lot of the usual question relating to my postcode. How I am voting, what matters are important to me, rate the sitting member, rate the candidates, etc.
    The guy was from Adelaide and asked me where my location actually was. I told him that I was 700k north of Brissie.

    I ask the polster how was the vibe in Adelaide and he said it was pretty even handed at the moment. I happen to mention that I was upset that Pyne was not running in Sturt. The bloke said that that was his electorate and that Pyne had jumped ship.

    He told me that he voted last saturday and missed getting his sausage sanga.

    He said he doesn’t think that the Libs will loose Sturt although it might be close. He said that it is a very leafy area if I knew what he means and he added they are not that keen for change.

    We chatted for a few more minutes. (Pssst I think he was one of us good guys)

  2. nath says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:54 pm

    The ALP partisans know that they have the wrong leader, but what are you going to do? At this stage, party hacks and their stooge supporters have to go all the way with the Shorten dud. He may scrape over the line, I think there is a good chance of a hung Parliament. Either way, with a tiny majority or with a minority government Shorten will look weak and his policies will probably not get through. All in all, a terrible outcome for a change of government election for the ALP.

    Really? I certainly don’t get that feeling.

    How can you be sure that it’s not your judgment that is flawed?

  3. Boerwar @ #932 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    The ‘satire’ on ABC in which politics is reduced to a footie meme is just fucking awful.

    You should be listening to Richard Glover talking to Annabel Crabb. That’s real satire.
    Glover on Shorten: When you start from a position of unpopularity, you have to try to gain votes by spending money.

  4. If you are voting above the line, as long as you give at least one of your preferences to a party that is likely to win a seat (the ALP and Liberal being the obvious ones in every state), your ballot will not fully exhaust. However, if you only number 6 boxes above the line, there is a fair chance your ballot will partially exhaust. The quickest and easiest way to prevent your Senate ballot from partially exhausting is to give a preference above the line to every party who has a realistic chance of winning a seat. Which parties those are depends on which state you are voting in.

    Although the instructions tell you not to vote both above and below the line, an instruction which I recommend following unless you are sure you know what you are doing, your vote should be counted if you do vote formally both above and below the line. If both your above the line and below the line votes are formal, the below the line vote will be counted. This, and more info relating to above and below the line voting, is explained in this document: https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/research/files/sbps-atl-and-btl-voting.pdf

  5. Cud

    If Labor win by 25 seats the usual suspects will be here on Monday telling us it would have been more had Albanese been leader.

  6. jeffemu
    says:
    He said he doesn’t think that the Libs will loose Sturt although it might be close. He said that it is a very leafy area
    _________________________
    this is blatant trademark infringement. The Kooyong electorate has exclusive use of ‘leafy’ in electorate descriptions. No other electorate can match our leafiness.

  7. Note from pre-poll…..

    There is strong Labor support in marginal Cowan and, most notably, in Pearce. The Lib vote is strong in their best territory…in the very affluent coastal suburbs and among the wealthier echelons of the over 70s.

    For a while today the Libs and their many clones were easily outnumbered by volunteers from Labor, Green, Get-up, Education campaigners and Change the Rules. The latter are having a notable effect with their call to “Change to Government. Change the Rules.”

    All in all, the weight of votes is strong for Labor in the places where it has to be strong.

  8. “CC -dunno. But, as I understand it, under 30s are heavily over represented among undecideds.”

    alp 100+ seats woohoo!

  9. Interesting Waringah is fairly average in terms of younger/older age distribution.

    Makes me wonder about all the young people who live in that area in, shall we say, off the record, shared accommodation.

  10. under 30s are heavily over represented among undecideds

    Might explain why they’re pushing the climate attack ads so much.

  11. davidwh @ #908 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    Providing it doesn’t affect his job as PM then Morrison’s religious views are his own.

    Of course it affects his job. He absented himself from the SSM vote, despite the fact that his electorate voted overwhelmingly for it. His creationist beliefs must interfere with any matter of policy or action that requires an objective evaluation of scientific information.

    Pentacostalists can’t think straight, by definition.

  12. Andrew_Earlwood @ #413 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:10 am

    I think my problem this time around is simply nervous energy:

    So bludger is a bit of therapy for me at the moment.

    My name is J, and I am also a Bludgerholic. 🙁

    😉

    Any hoo. Upwards and onwards.

    I’ll be back in Sydney by lunchtime on Saturday, so will hand out HTV’s at my local primary school in the afternoon before going to Linda Burney’s Campaign party.

    So chances are pretty good that by 8:30pm on Saturday we will both be well pissed, and well pleased. 🙂

    80 seats would be a good win for me, but I will be almost as content with 76. More than 80 is a bonus.

    –––––––––––––––––––––

    sprocket_ @ #525 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    My concern with the $6-8b headline figure ‘to be saved’, is how much of this rort-chasing money will move on to the next tax efficient vehicle.?

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #550 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:29 pm

    Labor would not have to spend much advertising money on running Shorten debunking the “death tax”, “property tax” and “retiree tax” lies – just run it once on facebook and let the media report it. Then us labor Facebookers could past it into the comments section every time the Liberal ran their lies on Facebook. Labor should have done that last week. Diffuses the whole ridiculousness of the propaganda there and then. Instead we have been bleeding for weeks on this shite.

    Labor have played a very solid tactical and strategic game thus far, so an obvious failure like that, on a central pillar of their budgetary plans, seems unlikely. They must have known the noise and heat generated by the policy would be considerable, so presumably they have judged it worth the risk.

    So why take that risk, especially if, as sprocket suggests, the money will just move on to the next tax rort?

    Because if successful it opens up the political debate space for more difficult tax reforms, like dividend imputation, and no doubt quite a few others.

    Even just implementing existing corporate tax laws more vigorously would be a serious improvement, and make the spivs’ eyes water.

  13. Steve777 comments “China and India starting to take it seriously. “
    China’s Co2 emissions went up by 4.7% and India’s 6.3% from 2017-18. That’s 66.43% of world emissions increase from 2017-18. Combined they now (2018) account for 36.75% of world emissions up from 35.95% in 2017.
    Australia could drop off the map and it would not make a brass razoo of difference.

  14. Sydney isn’t that interesting from the point of view of whether it will make a difference to the election.

    You kinda expect a lot of 20 somethings. I guess the most interesting bit is the relative lack of kids and teens.

  15. William

    The age distribution chart for Sydney is my favourite.

    Amazing, any ideas why there are soo many young people. It’s great as it’s my seat & I have three kids so doing my bit!

  16. Bluey Report: Tuesday’s Child.

    Bluey enjoyed viewing a swag of Labor ads this morning. He now knows that the Coalition will deliver more chaos with the help of Clive Palmer. He knows that the Coalition will deliver climate catastrophe. He knows that Morrison is giving $80 billion to the Big End of Town and stealing it from the sick, the old, the poor, and the young.

    Bluey’s favourite ad was one where Morrison gave Turnbull the Judas hug while he was stabbing him in the back. Bluey reckons that Morrison is all fake class. This footage segued into a photomontage of Abbott, Turnbull, Dutton, Morrison and Palmer. There are variations of this ad. The best variation is one where only the top of Mr Palmer’s head and his eyes appear – shifty looking bastard, Bluey reckons. Will the ads make a difference? Bluey reckons probably not much: maybe hold-the-fort-stuff while the hostiles wear themselves out doing yeehaas in fossil-fueled ute circles.

    Bluey urges youse to skip to the front page of the online Australian for a squiz. Ignore the words. It is a sea of Old Yaller with a bit of Oz reportprop embedded. Bluey reckons it is the most bizarrement thing he has ever seen in a mainstream newspaper. Thinking of which, Bluey assumes that Prime Minister Shorten will ensure that Mr Murdoch’s hacks will never get an exclusive drop, will be excluded from all government advertising, will never get to interview government MPs or ministers, will be excluded from press conferences, and will have to hand back the overseas broadcasting function. Bluey hopes that the anti-siphoning laws will get a fresh look. Bluey urges the introduction of monopoly-busting laws to split up this catastrophic threat to our democracy. Bluey reckons if those fuckers want to run for Government then they deserve the just desserts of Opposition.

    Bluey notes that the Happy Clapper, who gutlessly abstained from the Marriage Equality vote, and who tried to abstain from sending gays to Hell, was flushed out from under his rock by some zany reporter. Morrison did not like this one bit. Morrison’s Snarkometer went up to 10. Must be feeling the pressure of being a forthcoming Big Loser.

    Meanwhile, over in the Oz, Folau is being feted as somewhat of a Christian Crucifixion Martyr, and they are conflating pestering Morrison about Hell-for-Gays with the contractual murder of the noble Folau. Bluey reckons that the lot of them can go to Hell for all he cares.

    Bluey notes that the Happy Clapper has forgiven the Liberal candidate who uttered vile anti-muslim and anti-gay things as part of a previous candidature for a Christian party. So that is alright.

    Bluey notes that the Molan Below the Line Thing V the Liberal Party Above the Line Thing is causing a fracarse in the NSW State Liberal Branch. Bluey reminds NSW Liberals that Molan WON THE IRAQ WAR so they had better leave his total lack of civilian discipline alone. OR ELSE.

    Bluey notes that we got a very rare May cyclone and that global sea ice extent is the lowest on record. The Price is not Right.

    Was that a Mr Irons, Liberal candidate, raging into the camera? Bluey reckons he needs anger management.

    Mr Paull, Greens candidate was earlier complaining about the Invisible Hand that was writing some creepy conspiracist posts into his social media. Turns out it was himself. Outski! Mr Paull and Ms Hanson could swap notes on the Fake Port Arthur Massacre.

    Bluey reckons that it is becoming increasingly clear that the Price Adani water approval was a total shonk.

    Bluey wonders whether it is true that Palmer has spent $50 million on this election and wonders why he is running the campaign from Fiji. Still, if Mr Murdoch has been spending $25 million a year for the past six years propping up the loss-making Oz and is running HIS campaign from New York, why not Fiji? Then again, why not Moscow or why not Beijing? Bluey recalls Turnbull getting the Liberals over the line with just $.17 million. Cheap as chips.
    Bluey wonders who really owns Australia’s democracry?

    Bluey likes it when the Liberals exhume Howard for a deaf totter on the hustings: kicked out of government; kicked out of his own seat. More, please!

    Score for the Day: Labor 1 point; Liberals 0 point.
    Cumulative Score: Labor 29; Liberals 4 points.

  17. You would think that a high proportion of under 30 undecideds would be those voting for the first time or who had previously voted conservative.

  18. mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:33 pm

    William

    The age distribution chart for Sydney is my favourite.

    Amazing, any ideas why there are soo many young people. It’s great as it’s my seat & I have three kids so doing my bit!

    Well you’re clearly not normal! 🙂

  19. Chud Chewer

    Id wager marginal inner city seats? Macnamara, Wills etc. Maybe Brisbane?

    Sydney and Grayndler have high numbers if young people but are safe Labor seats.

  20. nath says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:54 pm

    “The ALP partisans know that they have the wrong leader, but what are you going to do?”

    ..I am a life-long ALP supporter ..and I know we have exactly the right leader.

    ..I voted for him & he has exceeded even my high expectations. He has unified Labor & got them to a position I didn’t believe was possible after that utter traitor & his “cardinals” all but destroyed our great party..

    ..so go your hardest ..keep repeating your utter sh*te ..it only hardens my view that your lot are sh*t scared of Bill Shorten, the greatest strategic leader this country has seen in a long, long time..

  21. secularism is very important to me, and the religiosity of candidates influences my vote more than just about anything. Secularism promotes a better society. Less polarised, more scientifically aware.
    Julia Gillards atheism sent a message world wide that politics and atheism can co-exist.
    I am probably in the minority but.

  22. This is an American view on the whole bunch of candidates who have lost their party’s endorsement for being discovered making hateful remarks on social media. I have a feeling politicians such as Peter Dutton, Tony Abbott, George Christiansen and others of a similar ilk will face the wrath of the voters of their electorate come election day.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/08/world/australia/election-offensive-speech.html?fbclid=IwAR2UaPTsnyFNaCIWWEn_agUXSsUKSHF5sHZbCDrTRjpOLQ3NZesXjdd2mAE

  23. After watching the same TV ads about 50 times, the ad I think most annoying is the Liberal one with family. The thing which is annoying me most is the flaring of the kids striped shirt. They should have removed that in editing.

  24. Mike Hilliard

    Two big unis at UTS and USYD attract lots of young people. They would be likely to live nearby while studying and remain around in surrounding areas for a few years after. Thats why Sydney skews younger.

  25. markjs says:
    ..so go your hardest ..keep repeating your utter sh*te ..it only hardens my view that your lot are sh*t scared of Bill Shorten, the greatest strategic leader this country has seen in a long, long time..
    _________________
    I agree with you in a way. He’s so cunning he’s convinced you that Rudd is to blame for the coup against Gillard!!!! But who do you blame for the one against Rudd???? Bill was behind both of them.

  26. IoM

    Good point. Attended a graduation at UTS recently & was astonished at how big it is, dwarfs the days I was there back in the 80’s (then NSWIT).

  27. I just saw a fantastic Greenpeace add about climate change.
    Rupert, Scomo a tiny bit of KRudd lots of Abbot, Gina.
    God it was good. Really good visuals
    Seek it out if you get a chance. Dirty Power i think it was called.

  28. Is the Bludger Track calculation for Lindsay correct? It is showing as a L-NP incumbency loss and adjustment of -1.0. Should that not be ALP incumbency loss and +1.0? That would swing Lindsay into strongly favoured to be won by the L-NP (which seems a bit strong to me on the surface but maybe that is why models are valuable, as a check on your subjective biases).

  29. nath says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:45 pm

    markjs says:
    ..so go your hardest ..keep repeating your utter sh*te ..it only hardens my view that your lot are sh*t scared of Bill Shorten, the greatest strategic leader this country has seen in a long, long time..
    _________________
    I agree with you in a way. He’s so cunning he’s convinced you that Rudd is to blame for the coup against Gillard!!!! But who do you blame for the one against Rudd???? Bill was behind both of them.

    I think I see your logic now.

    Shorten’s level of fuckwittery is such, that it is only obvious to another f#ckwit!

    Only a f#ckwit would believe that.

  30. Just got included in a group chat ‘Telephone Town Hall’ between Lucy Wicks, Member for Robertson, Jilly Pillon, Liberal candidate for Dobell and Scott Morrison!

    Morrison saying that if a Company pays Tax that retirees should get that company’s tax back. He says high income earners get the benefit of the company’s tax, so why shouldn’t retirees?

    Saying that Union-dominated Super Funds get benefits that SMSF don’t. And Franking Credit refunds are one benefit that should be part of the suite of benefits SMSFs should get.

    One commenter saying that Labor wants to increase migration and he doesn’t like it and what is the Coalition going to do about it?

    Morrison says that Labor want the immigration numbers to jump up again. Says SA, Tasmania and Northern Queensland are crying out for migrants.

    Got to keep a control on immigration in order to enable social cohesion, says Scott Morrison… Sounds like dog whistling to me.

    Says Commuter Car Park upgrades are a result of Liberal MP, Lucy Wicks’ intervention. Which is a lie. Bill Shorten announced commuter car parks first.

    Tax cut question to Morrison. He says it won’t come in until July 1 next year.

    Abolishing the 37% tax rate: $45k to $200k pay the same rate. So 94% of Australians will all pay the same rate 30%. Doing it because he thinks your money is better off in your hands. You can decide best what to do with your money in your pocket. Bill Shorten will just blow it. Then tells caller the $387 Billion of new Labor taxes lie again.

    Obviously this is his barely-concealed Small Government agenda.

    Only with a strong economy can we invest in infrastructure.

    Final comments: Lucy Wicks: We have achieved a lot but in order to be able to keep delivering, we have to keep the economy strong. Labor will hit us all with higher taxes. More jobs, better roads, more carparking.

    Jilly Pillon: Under Bill Shorten, we have people coming to us distressed at Pre Poll about the Retiree Tax and Small Business taxes.

    Morrison: ‘I love the Central Coast and my CC Team.
    Finishes with First Home Loan Deposit Scheme. You only need a 5% Deposit before First Home Buyers can get into their first home. Emphasises Salary Sacrifice into Super to save for your first home. Bill Shorten said he’d abolish that. It’s the First Home Buyers Tax. It’s a new one. It will add $307 Billion in new taxes.’

  31. Barney in Saigon @ #856 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:13 pm

    In this case if 2 of these are fighting for the last spot your vote will have exhausted and you won’t contribute to who is finally elected.

    If the last two candidates are truly repugnant, then voting for neither seems to me to be a valid choice. That way you can take solace in the fact you didn’t put him/her into that last Senate spot.

    On the flip-side. you can blame everyone else who did put a number beside either or both for the successful one getting into the senate. 😉

  32. Dave, BT is comparing the situation in Lindsay at the last election – a Liberal defending the seat – with the situation at this election – a vacancy. So it’s the same situation as if a Liberal incumbent was retiring. I understand why this confuses people, but I assure you it makes sense.

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