Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Cud Chewer, disagree on NBN;

    There is no problem with competition, there is so much competition providers are rushing to exit the field because there is no profit, Amaysim giving up on NBN was a bad sign, they where one of the most efficient retail operations, but they couldnt make a profit.

    Backhaul isnt even close to being a problem, all the money is being sucked up by the last mile. ($42 for last mile, $20 for everything else, backhaul might only be around $5 of that $20, i dont know exactly)

    The number of POI’s should have been based partly on population density of a region, with many more POI’s is smaller regional cities (perhaps triple what theere is now), but less are needed in capitals.

    don’t have time to hang around and debate though 🙁

  2. So two polls showing Liberal are on track to win seats off Labor and not a single poll to date showing that Labor can convincingly win any government marginal.
    I predict that there will be medium to large size swings to Labor in metro Melbourne, but not enough to translate into seats, apart from maybe Chisholm. On the other hand NSW and Qld look like being net gains to the LNP. The Morrison Government will be returned either in minority or a small majority.

  3. I want post indiviual seat polling in The OZ.
    Other than, Corangamite, Murdoch press is only publishing in seats where ALP is bit vulnerable i.e. Bass, Herbert and Lindsay.
    They are not publishing in seats where LNP is vulnerable.

  4. zoomster:

    And I don’t know whether this is indicative of anything other than their social media team is hopeless, but the Liberal twitter feed during its launch was practically silent throughout. Someone managed to tweet out quotes from Scotty at intervals, but compared with Labor’s twitter feed during its launch, there were no photos, no videos, no retweets of shadow ministers taking selfies, all looking enthused and energised.

  5. I’m not convinced about Lindsay falling to the Libs. Depending on where they polled I could get the same result for Labor as Newspoll did for the Libs.
    Also the Libs are odds on to lose Waringah which makes it a one all draw which the Libs can’t afford….they have to win seats and not lose any.

  6. A friend with great ALP insider connections was invited to Shorten’s Moonee Ponds event yesterday. She said she didn’t ask anyone about the inside view on how the prospects were looking (and most likely if she had, there would have been a scripted answer). However she said the mood was very buoyant. Consistently with Zoomster’s comments, the contrast with the sad, lame Morrison launch tells a story about how those closest to the action are feeling. It’s not a definitive indicator of what will happen on Saturday of course, but I’d much prefer to be in Shorten’s shoes right now.

  7. well, the perception the alp will win should be swinging in alp’s favour.
    I predict the prepolls will buck the trend and favour the alp by 2.5% When prepolling opened, the alp were doing better in the polls.
    83 seats to the good guys.

  8. I tend to look for a practical explanation whenever an event is called “a miracle” and am delighted to have discovered this one.

    At age 32, an IVF doctor told Jenny to give up trying. She took his advice for a while, until girlfriends encouraged her to get a second opinion. The second doctor diagnosed her with severe endometriosis, sent her into surgery, and, two years later, she fell pregnant naturally with Abbey, now 11. “It really was a miracle,” she says. Two years after that, Lily was born.

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/meet-jenny-morrison-the-unrecognisable-woman-behind-the-pm-20190509-p51lui.html

  9. I know they are vastly different but there has not been that much Indi-Green effort in Kooyong and Frydenberg is leading 52-48. In Warringah there seems to have been a massive presence by Steggall so I would say Abbott is in big trouble.

  10. It’s hard to judge how One Nation and Palmer preferences will split this time around. In 2016 the latter didn’t exist and the former barely existed, with One Nation getting 1.3% of House of Reps votes (5% in Qld).

    In their 2013 incarnation, the Palmists presented as centrist and their preferences split 54-46 to the Coalition. This time around they are presenting as Right Wing populist but without the xenophobia (at least with regard to Muslims). Meanwhile, One Nation had been rejuvenated and its outlook is more anti-Labor than (as in past years) “a pox on both houses”. Again, what happens to preferences is hard to predict.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826

  11. Thanks BK, particularly like s the good news story on Sky-rail. I love the new feel that the Light Rail has given to Northbourne Av in Canberra despite lamenting the loss of so many mature trees but the future with its new planting’s looks great. Plenty of detractors in the National Capital but with more housing in the strip and the development of new businesses etc along the way, it’s going to be a big asset.

  12. @Jack Stepheny

    Overheard from two old ladies at prepoll booth in #Sturt on Friday:
    “Why are you taking Labor how-to-vote sheet Anne? You’ve always voted Liberal”,
    Anne replies: “This election I’m voting for my grandkids”.
    Other lady also took Labor sheet.

    #AusVotes19  #auspol 

  13. For a libs/nats majority the combined primary vote need to be 6 % + ahead of Labor’s primary vote

    Labor is sitting comfortable ,if the primary votes are this close

  14. “Dog’s Breakfast says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 8:13 am
    Thanks BK, particularly like s the good news story on Sky-rail. I love the new feel that the Light Rail has given to Northbourne Av in Canberra despite lamenting the loss of so many mature trees but the future with its new planting’s looks great. Plenty of detractors in the National Capital but with more housing in the strip and the development of new businesses etc along the way, it’s going to be a big asset.”

    News this morning that construction has come in $25m under budget and patronage is already at 2020-21 forecast levels.

  15. Steve777

    William, Antony Green and others have noted that when minor parties declare themselves more aligned with the Coalition their preference flows increase to them – but this may be at the expense of the Coalition leaking votes to these same minors. And if cosying up to Palmer or One Nation costs the Coalition other votes then the whole exercise is probably counter productive .

    I think there are at least two state elections in each of WA and Queensland that probably bear this out.

    The more Coalition primary votes that ‘leak’ to UAP and ON the better because they will not all come back.

    In Victoria I am hoping that the many small right wing parties in the Senate will end up diluting the right wing vote with lots of exhausted votes leading to Labor getting three seats.

  16. The pressure on the Libs in Kooyong and Higgins echoes their problems in the Victorian State Election where blue riband seats swung mightily against them. This suggests seats like Goldstein, Deakin, Menzies and Astin might be throwing up some interesting trends.

    Could be a nail biter for some Lib MHRs.

  17. No matter how much polling data comes out this week , we all know what is going to happen all this week

    Kitchen sink of propaganda thrown at Labor , the greens , non coalition allied independents and other minor parties by pro coalition media and news ltd hacks

  18. As we said yesterday, policy on the run.

    Katharine Murphy인증된 계정 @murpharoo
    8분8분 전
    .@SabraLane to @JoshFrydenberg on the housing policy. Have you done any modelling? “We’ve spoken to people in the sector” #ausvotes

  19. Have the ABC announced their election night panel members yet?

    Nine have Albo and Tanya, and JBish and ???; I assume they’re trying to fill the second spot (for balance.)

  20. So Zoidloid, are the ATMs too expensive and must be cut too. I have dreams of a dystopian future for banks and other companies. A full board of execs and 1 person to do all the work and the board want to rid themselves of the expense of the 1 worker to claim their productivity bonus…

  21. Steve77, that only matters if the voters have changed too, given it is the voters who decide how their preferences are distributed.

  22. That’s funny Nostradamus, because all the Vic ALP Insiders I know all look like they just got hit in the arse by a rainbow.

    I guess we’ll see who’s right on May 18.

    My guess is we won’t be seeing you here then, so catch you in 2022 for more useless prognostications 🙂

  23. It’s a long time since I lived in Lindsay but it doesn’t surprise that there may be isues there considering how the candidate was chosen.
    It is reminiscent of 1998 when what should have been an easy pick-up of the seat was stymied by poor candidate selection

  24. Good morning all. I woke today with the phrase “No more Morrison.” going round and round, bouncing off my skull. I can’t recommend it. But it did give me ideas.

    No More Morrison.
    Our GBRF can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Our rivers can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Our economy can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Our sick can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Our teachers can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Our future can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Remember Barnaby Joyce.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    He broke centrelink.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Australia’s embarrassing one man band.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Remember Turnbull?
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Even his Liberals have abandoned him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Promises are all he’s got.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Remember the “innocent” banks.
    No More Morrison.
    ————
    No More Morrison.
    Australia can’t afford him.
    No More Morrison.
    ————

    Apologies for the spam, but you get the idea. It’s damp and overcast in Brisbane this morning. I need my tea.

  25. RE; Canberra rail
    Funny isn’t it, when they want a toll road, the numbers are massively inflated, and on opening day they are empty.
    When you want a rail project, the demand is always overwhelming, and it is a success.
    It is almost like the powers that be want to build more roads?

  26. Scott says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 8:21 am
    No matter how much polling data comes out this week , we all know what is going to happen all this week

    Kitchen sink of propaganda thrown at Labor , the greens , non coalition allied independents and other minor parties by pro coalition media and news ltd hacks

    No, the kitchen sink will be continued to be thrown at Labor / Bill Shorten….the others might get splashed by the dishwater but it is Labor, as always, taking up the fight and absorbing the desperate unhinged defence

  27. The best election night panellists put aside the politics as much as possible and act as mouthpieces for their contacts with news on trends in voting. The worst are those that forget the campaign is over and keep spewing out political crap.

  28. ‘Good morning all. I woke today with the phrase “No more Morrison.” going round and round, bouncing off my skull. I can’t recommend it. But it did give me ideas.’

    Great idea, four weeks too late.
    Labor wouldn’t have used it anyway.

    They’re for he top end of town has such a ring to it.

    Not like that stupid ineffectual The Bill Australia can’t Afford.
    What loser thought of that one.

  29. When you want a rail project, the demand is always overwhelming, and it is a success.

    Numbers for the CBR light rail are probably somewhat inflated due to a month of free travel (inc. buses) while the new timetable is ironed out. I was going to go for a ride on Friday, but the weather was miserably cold and wet.

  30. Confessions @ #275 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:21 am

    As we said yesterday, policy on the run.

    Katharine Murphy인증된 계정 @murpharoo
    8분8분 전
    .@SabraLane to @JoshFrydenberg on the housing policy. Have you done any modelling? “We’ve spoken to people in the sector” #ausvotes

    I’m sure they have. Spoken to them about how they can cream the $ provided by a Coalition government, off the top for themselves.

  31. I wonder if the Liberal strategy of making it all about Morrison is to make people forget about the divides in the party and present a strong leader.

  32. Edi_Mahin

    Simon Birmingham has been a very dedicated crapologist through the campaign. Well chosen from the Libs pov. I wonder how they will reward him after the deluge.

  33. I hope Labor is willing to run this when the LNP get low this week.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/11/10/exclusive-auditor-general-found-morrison-breaches/15417684007120

    other than the saturday paper, this has not got an airing in the MSM – why? It’s not huge, but if shorten had something similar in his past there’d have been another royal commission by now.

    I’m sensing the murdoch media might not have anything non-litigious they can run with or we’d have seen it by now, but I guess they might be waiting until after their lauding of the LNP launch – so tonight or tomorrow could be the big drop. I still expect the old rape allegations to come forward.

    I’m also a tad sad Turnbull hasn’t dumped anything – yet. I think he would have done it yesterday if he was going to do it, so I fear the libs are in the clear.

  34. “Hartcher thinks Josh is funny, unifying & capable.
    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/presence-of-a-capable-future-leader-hints-at-a-possible-revival-for-an-exhausted-party-20190512-p51mji.html

    Strange; he must have been watching an entirely different event and mixed up the two.”

    Typical Hartcher: lining himself up to be Josh’s chief media hand clapper for the next 3-6 years. Another prime example of the cancer that is the CPG.

  35. ‘I wonder if the Liberal strategy of making it all about Morrison is to make people forget about the divides in the party and present a strong leader.’

    Well it’s not working, look at the polls….oh, wait

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