Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. If we’re using Bludgertrack as a baseline. Right 51.7% 2PP…

    1987, 1990, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 were all won off the back of smaller 2PP wins.

    It’s a little aenemic as far as changes of government go, but election wins, it’s equal to Hawke in 1984.

  2. @Rocket: “Skyrail” must have been the most insincere astroturfed NIMBY campaign I’ve seen in politics. Elevated train line sections already existed on all the southern and eastern train lines, including in some of the wealthiest suburbs in the city, and nobody batted an eyelid or complained that it was doing in their property values.

  3. Douglas and Milko

    Thank for the info about AfD. I have become extremeley (ie obsessively) interested in German politics over about the last five years and I am actually feeling really positive about what the near future holds.

    I have stood before the Theatre in Weimar where the Republic was proclaimed in 1919 (reconstructed as the original was destroyed in 1945) and despaired at all the bad decisions in the 1920s and 1930s that led to 1933 and the Nazi ascension, (as you discussed with your partner at a meal with some interested Germans overhearing some of it!).

    I also enjoyed your election day plans. Hope they all go exactly as set out!

    I must say though that I was extremely disappointed after Labor’s early release of their costings that neither Morrison nor Frydenberg used the age-old Liberal trope “Budget Black Hole” – because like the saying goes in astrophysics ‘Any publicity is good publicity’.

  4. Arky

    I sometimes travel on the Lilydale and Belgrave lines and since this whole Skyrail thing I have realised that while getting rid of many level crossings on these lines has been good, for the most part they are still scars dividing suburbs and communities, and elevating them both may have been a better solution.

  5. Peeked at the soccer on The Guardian – as I did so – Liverpool scored, then Brighton scored, then Man City scored. All in the space of a few minutes. Must go to bed now or it will drive me to distraction.

    I still think Man City will beat Brighton and win the title.

  6. Going on the recent 2016
    Federal election day, 39% for the libs/nats =47.5% 2pp

    2013 federal election 39% for the libs/nats =47% 2pp

  7. This reminds me of Super Saturday. The media narrative was that the ALP would knife Shorten and replace him with Albanese if the ALP lost and the polls looked disastrous for Labor in Longman and Braddon. All of a sudden though, election night rolls by and the ALP win easily.

    I think the same is going on here with these polls.

    It’ll be very interesting to track where both camps go this week.

  8. Jordan @ #207 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 12:45 am

    This reminds me of Super Saturday. The media narrative was that the ALP would knife Shorten and replace him with Albanese if the ALP lost and the polls looked disastrous for Labor in Longman and Braddon. All of a sudden though, election night rolls by and the ALP win easily.

    I think the same is going on here with these polls.

    It’ll be very interesting to track where both camps go this week.

    Yep, super Saturday, Victorian state elections.

    There is the beginnings of a trend..

  9. Newspoll is horseshit. The more often it comes up with the same TPP the more convinced I am. It also looks like there was cherrypicking of seat polls. The main pollsters give me no confidence so I’m going with the voter choice project: 55 – 45

  10. antonbruckner11 @ #212 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 1:28 am

    Newspoll is horseshit. The more often it comes up with the same TPP the more convinced I am. It also looks like there was cherrypicking of seat polls. The main pollsters give me no confidence so I’m going with the voter choice project: 55 – 45

    More like they take multiple polls and choose the one with the best outcome for the LNP, this makes the poll statistically sound, but obviously dodgy 😡

  11. Rocket Rocket @ #205 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 12:31 am

    Peeked at the soccer on The Guardian – as I did so – Liverpool scored, then Brighton scored, then Man City scored. All in the space of a few minutes. Must go to bed now or it will drive me to distraction.

    I still think Man City will beat Brighton and win the title.

    Have a look at how much each team spends on salaries.
    Is it any surprise MCI wins the title?
    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jun/06/premier-league-finances-club-guide-2016-17

  12. Oh, frabjous day!

    Chris Kenny has abandoned the Twittersphere for good, in a development likely to start a wider conversation among some media types about whether the social media platform is worth it.

    In 2014, the Sky News host and The Australian columnist tried, and failed, to quit the “Twitsphere”, as he dubbed it back then, after publishing a column in which he lamented the treatment of women on the social media platform. But within weeks, he was sucked back into the Twitter vortex.

    This time around, Kenny’s ­resolve is stronger. His Twitter handle with 40,000 followers suddenly disappeared a month ago, and Kenny tells Diary there’s no going back: “The reason I’m quitting Twitter is that there’s so much toxicity, so much vulgarity and so many lies, you can’t engage without incurring some damage: whether that be frustration, anger, or just resentment at misrepresentations. When you look at it, there’s not many people right of centre who go on Twitter and ­engage. The point was always to engage. But in the end, that ­became impossible.”

    Diary hears Kenny actually weaned himself off Twitter before making his final departure from the platform last month. He initially went cold turkey, giving his wife his Twitter password and asking her to change it. Two weeks later, enjoying his Twitter-free existence, Kenny asked her to ­delete the account permanently.

    “I encourage as many people as possible to get out of it,” he says. “What should be a communal conversation is often just a horrible festering cesspit of hatred, lies and misinformation.”

  13. EG Theodore

    The ACCC has its moments but its decision on NBN points of interconnect was a poor one. It argued that 2 or 3 providers on a route represented competition. The ACCC should have known better, given what happens in every other Australian “market” with 2 or providers. The absurdly inflated cost of backhaul is the single biggest problem with the NBN, other than the fact that FTTN is useless, temporary and therefore a waste of tens of billions.

    NBNco itself argued for a hybrid arrangement, where you could use both a larger set of POIs, or you could get complete connectivity with the base set of 14. So Quigley isn’t to blame for this one.

    Rudd and Conroy just simply didn’t know enough to understand the mistake the ACCC was making. That’s what happens when you’re in government and you trust “expert” bodies. There’s plenty of examples of this.

    For example Albo trusted, and still trusts the work of the consultant group AECOM in its 2013 Phase 2 HSR Study, which to keep things simple I’ll describe as “a useful resource, but otherwise, plain wrong”. If you’re interested in why I’ll be happy to explain. I’ve spent the last 4 years of my life becoming the one person in Australia who is expert enough on HSR to challenged the 2013 Study.

  14. I have lived in London for 5 years.

    When I went home my mother excitedly drove me to see the skyrail. What a marvel! My friend said his dad did the same thing. It is so much better than before, it was obviously going to win votes!

  15. Fozzie Logic @ #211 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 11:18 pm

    Having said that, I think Bill Shorten should intervene to try and get him his Job back…

    According to the ATO, after tax the whinging prick takes home $157,852. I reckon he should spend as much time as possible on no income at all to put things in perspective for him and make him realise just how lucky he is. Shit, there are white collar professionals with qualifications up the whazoo who would love to be earning the same money as this twat.

    Sadly though, it’s good politics for Bill to act on his behalf.

    Sigh.

  16. Mmm….the media is unusually silent about Palmer & the unpaid workers since his preference deal with the Coalition.

  17. Rocket Rocket,

    Peeked at the soccer on The Guardian – as I did so – Liverpool scored, then Brighton scored, then Man City scored. All in the space of a few minutes. Must go to bed now or it will drive me to distraction.

    Embarrassed to say that I was in this great pub in Bonn, the James Joyce, and keeping half only an eye on the game/s. Great football, and I loved hearing the crowd singing “Hey Jude” – figured that was Liverpool. However, I actually think we were only shown highlights, but I may have missed the final score while obsessing over the final Newspoll score before the big game next Saturday.

  18. Rocket Rocket

    Thank for the info about AfD. I have become extremeley (ie obsessively) interested in German politics over about the last five years and I am actually feeling really positive about what the near future holds.

    I have stood before the Theatre in Weimar where the Republic was proclaimed in 1919 (reconstructed as the original was destroyed in 1945) and despaired at all the bad decisions in the 1920s and 1930s that led to 1933 and the Nazi ascension, (as you discussed with your partner at a meal with some interested Germans overhearing some of it!).

    Like you I have an exceptional interest in the history of 20th century Europe, and hence an intense interest in how politics in Germany and the rest of the EU plays out in this 2nd decade of the 21st century.

    Like you, I am becoming a bit more positive about the future for Europe, and particularly for Germany.

    A saying I got from Stephen King: “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”. Maybe not original to him, but perhaps my best take on “History repeats itself”.

    I am hoping we (as a world) have got out of the GFC, and the resultant economic downturn, without too much bloodshed – not that any is OK.

    I think there is now a new generation who can actually see the benefit of cooperation and democracy – because it has been threatened over the last two decades. They want to work with democracy, at least in Bonn, Germany, to keep the left both pro-EU, and a force to move the EU on from the neo-liberal economics that were in the ascendancy at the time the treaty of Maastricht was signed.

  19. A worker breaches his employment contract by volunteering themselves for media attention and somehow that’s Bill’s doing???

  20. How good is it to see Liverpool come up short in yet another title race? Absolutely brilliant. The fact their fans had hope until the final day makes it all the sweeter.

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. (Harry and Meghan have released a photo of their baby. You’ll have to go looking for it yourself.)

    Tony Wright says “The PM promised a campaign launch free of hoopla, and by crikey, he delivered.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-pm-promised-a-campaign-launch-free-of-hoopla-and-by-crikey-he-delivered-20190512-p51mir.html
    And he’s unimpressed by what was in the tiny amount of new policy announced at it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-federal-election-is-just-six-days-away-apparently-policy-purity-will-have-to-come-later-20190512-p51mii.html
    The Grattan Institute’s Brendan Coates explains Coalition’s why plan won’t spark home ownership recovery among the young.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-s-plan-won-t-spark-home-ownership-recovery-among-young-20190512-p51mhu.html
    Sam Maiden tells us what Morrison’s big pitch to first-home buyers means.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/12/first-home-buyers-scott-morrison/
    David Crowe says Scott Morrison will intensify his warnings of a hit to property prices from a Labor election victory.
    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/morrison-to-ramp-up-warnings-over-home-values-as-labor-seeks-to-neutralise-pm-s-policy-shift-20190512-p51mkg.html
    Sean Kelly tells us why Morrison had to make a last-minute policy push.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/why-scott-morrison-had-to-make-a-last-minute-policy-push-20190511-p51mc6.html
    Michelle Grattan tells us how, quick on the draw, Labor matched Morrison’s first home owners scheme.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-quick-on-the-draw-labor-matches-morrisons-first-home-owners-scheme-116969
    Michael Pascoe come out swinging, accusing Morrison of either lying or being ignorant about the RBA’s forecasts.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/12/scott-morrison-ignores-rba-downgrades/
    An AFR editorial says the Liberals’ narrative is sadly lacking a credible growth agenda.
    https://www.outline.com/h4xG7X
    David Crowe examines where the election looks likely to be won and lost.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/as-the-final-week-begins-here-s-where-the-election-looks-likely-to-be-won-and-lost-20190512-p51mko.html
    According to Phil Coorey an austere PM is banking on the silent majority.
    https://www.outline.com/7cdPtd
    And you’d have to say Katharine Murphy was quite underwhelmed by the Morrison Party launch yesterday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/12/liberal-campaign-launch-a-slow-leak-of-air-from-a-balloon-a-hiss-presaging-deflation
    Peter Hatcher hints that, given he was the only heavyweight on stage at yesterday’s Liberal party launch, Frydenberg is sitting right on Morrison’s shoulder waiting for the opportunity to pounce.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/presence-of-a-capable-future-leader-hints-at-a-possible-revival-for-an-exhausted-party-20190512-p51mji.html
    John Wren discusses the leaders’ debates, Labor’s chances of electoral success and the newest low that the Murdoch media has sunk to.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-the-federal-election-shortens-mum-and-the-murdoch-press,12665
    Deborah Snow has penned a long contribution about Shorten and his long path to probably being our next OM.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/bill-shorten-s-final-dash-in-the-long-road-to-the-top-20190509-p51lpo.html
    Woodside says Australia needs to end its climate policy wars as a matter of priority after Saturday’s federal election.
    https://www.outline.com/GJ9msp
    Alex Turnbull is still in the news.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/alex-turnbull-defends-deleted-tweet-about-the-murdoch-family-20190512-p51mhr.html
    A new poll in the Victorian seat of Kooyong puts the Liberals ahead, but the Greens within striking distance of taking the blue-ribbon seat from Josh Frydenberg.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/13/greens-within-striking-distance-in-josh-frydenbergs-seat-of-kooyong-poll-finds
    Alexandra Smith says that in the next four years, the Coalition in NSW will need five of the 11 crossbenchers to pass legislation. There are five right-wing members, and Latham is positioning himself as the bloc’s unofficial leader.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/kingmaker-nile-swept-aside-as-motley-crew-sends-signal-to-berejiklian-20190509-p51ls1.html
    Electricity reform will be first cab off the rank in a sweeping rewrite of energy and environmental laws under a Labor government, shadow minister Mark Butler has said.
    https://www.outline.com/qGmdjJ
    Bill Shorten has signalled a review expected to increase the rate of Newstart will look more broadly at support for the unemployed.
    https://www.outline.com/uhtv4h
    In need of a morning purgative? Then read this from Amanda Vanstone who writes that that if Shorten is elected we are all losers, big time.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/for-me-the-choice-next-saturday-is-clear-20190510-p51m0r.html
    Coles is adding 75 new products to its existing range – including smashed avocado and toast – and refurbishing 100 supermarkets to stock more ready-to-eat food and semi-prepared meals.
    https://www.outline.com/haBfX5
    Democrats are reluctant to impeach Donald Trump but he may provoke such a move by continuing to obstruct congressional efforts to oversee his administration, a senior lawmaker said yesterday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/12/trump-impeachment-investigations-schiff

    Cartoon Corner – rather scratchy today, I’m afraid.

    A Liberal election poster from David Rowe.

    David Pope with an alternative to the democracy sausage.

    From Matt Golding.

    Zanetti’s a bit angry lately.

    A big spit at Labor’s support of the ABC from Johannes Leak.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a58d130a75314a269b41d7e77a333e3f?width=1024

    From the US

  22. Just a reminder to all PollBludgers. Every time you see a liberal Ad and click on it, it cost them $1-$2. So click away. 😀

  23. Reflecting on that Kooyong Poll – in 2016 Labor got 19 and Greens 19 I think so the only change is Yates coming in and getting 9 – and maybe done if this going back to the Liberals anyway.

    Still, probably explains the Liberaks spending more than one million dollars in the electorate!

  24. I love the idea of Shorten intervening and at the same time making a case for being a member of a union when employers take such actions.

    8f the guy has already moved on to another job and declines the assistance, well that just defuses the story even more

  25. On politics, and how lethal it can be, I went to the August Macke Haus today, in Bonn.

    I was vaguely aware of August Macke as an artist associated with the Rhineland Expressionist movement, but was gobsmacked today to see how good his work was in the short 26 years he was alive. I would strongly encourage any of you interested in art and art history to visit this museum if you ever have a chance.

    The art was brilliant, but as always when I visit such an exhibition in Germany, I am aware of the history that inexorably accompanied the progression of art.

    Macke himself was called up by Imperial Germany in August 1914. He was dead before the end of 1914, in a battlefield near Reims. One of his close artist friends died in 1916, in Verdun. But that was just the start.

    His wife Elizabeth, after his death in 1914, eventually married one of his good friends, and together they preserved Macke’s legacy. Unfortunately, her second husband, August Macke’s friend, was a democratic socialist who ran a journal. He died in Sachenhausen in 1945.

    And that was just the beginning. Very few of the Rheinland impressionists survived past 1945. They were either democratic socialists or Jewish. Given this all happened between 1914 and 1945, the few survivors much have been “shellshocked”. It all happened in a period of 31 years, say like from 1986 – 2017.

    I have a faint hope that the world will not repeat the mistakes that let to this outcome.

  26. I think we’re looking at around 89-91 Labor. 8-12 “Conservative independent” 48-53 LNP.
    Irrespective the Senate is the key. If the balance of power is held by people who are the love children of Reinhard Heydrich & Margaret Thatcher chaos will be ensured.

  27. Newspoll have not posted the primary votes for the libs/nats Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay , makes it suspicious that the libs/nats will get those seats.

  28. Smaug,

    I put in a guess for the number of seats Labor will hold after the election at 89, much earlier this year before the polls narrowed.

    I am sticking by this.

  29. Douglas and Milko

    Yes it is hard not to read anything of that era without adding in the surrounding events associated with particular dates and years. I was just reading about Sachsenhausen, where many of the Nazis’ political prisoners died. Adding to the sadness, like Buchenwald next to Weimar, after the war it was then also used in the East Germany-Soviet era as a political prison.

    We have just had all these centenaries of First World War events 1914-1918. Over the next few years we are going to have centenaries of the many unfortunate political events in Europe in the 1920s and 1930s – I hope as much attention is given to them with major pause for reflection on what might have been different.

    Like you I am very positive about Germany – some of its neighbours to the East and South worry me though.

  30. Libs/nats combined primary vote still under 40%

    I am still picking Labor will be announced as the incoming new government around 7:30pm saturday night

  31. Right – now that I am more awake – Kooyong

    2016 election –
    Liberal 58, Labor 20, Greens 19, Ind 3 – TPP Liberal 63-37 Labor.

    Guardian Poll –
    Liberal 41, Labor 16, Greens 21, Yates 9, Ind 5, Undecided 8 – TPP Liberal 52-48 Green.

    Interesting – I think the Greens are preferencing Yates then Labor, and Labor the Greens/Yates in one order or the other. Yates, a former Liberal who quit the party to run against Frydenberg, is not directing preferences. Of course in polls any how-to-vote cards are meaningless but you do get the impression that some of Yates’ respondents in the poll have gone with Frydenberg when push came to shove.

    I am hoping for something like Jana Stewart (Labor) 25, Greens 20, Yates 10 and then Stewart to win.

  32. The capable future leader? The launch showcased Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Confident, funny, unifying, capable. His appearance was a hint at a future revival of a party now suffering the exhaustion of a convulsive two terms under three leaders.

    I like Frydenberg less and less: “funny, unifying, capable” ? Unifying only in the sense that he is following the narrative of so many Libs. Capable? Hmmm. His distortion of facts (aka outright lies) are not the actions of any leader that I want to see. But I would agree that he sees himself as a future leader.

  33. Thanks BK.

    I had a feeling Scotty’s first home buyer’s announcement would be shredded by further in depth analysis.

  34. Prime Minister Scott Morrison expressed interest in overhauling housing tax concessions, including negative gearing, just days into his time as treasurer, according to official documents.

    The Morrison Government’s opposition to the ALP’s housing tax plan is central to its re-election pitch.

    But Mr Morrison did not appear to oppose changes to housing taxation early in his time as treasurer, according to “sensitive” government documents.

    Obtained under freedom of information laws, a senior NSW Treasury official in October 2015 wrote: “The Commonwealth appears more willing to consider broader tax reform.

    “The Commonwealth Treasurer has indicated that all options need to be considered, including superannuation, capital gains tax and negative gearing.”

    Mr Morrison in February 2016 said there were “excesses” in negative gearing and that the government was considering changes.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-13/scott-morrison-expressed-interest-overhauling-negative-gearing/11105830

  35. antonbruckner11,

    Voterchoice uses an untested method of using respondent allocated preferences based on a hypothetical ballot with 6 candidates. The project is in part testing how accurate this method is, and that won’t be known until after the election.

    If you distribute the preferences using the common last election flows and PHON 60/40 adjustment the headline figure 55/45 is more like 52/48.

  36. I accidentally caught the nauseatingly sentimental and badly written opening moments of ScoMo’s launch yesterday. No wonder he failed as an advertising man.

  37. Yesterday was ScoMo at it again. One-man band. Chief cook and bottle-washer. “Our” Prime Minister.

    The Insta-PM was born, apparently fully-formed, with all the qualifying wisdoms in place, last August. And behold… before him was The Void. No previous Prime Ministers. No previous policies. No previous ministers or even governments.

    We needed the first five years to sort out the song sheet, and run through the candidates before we the people got the Right Man For The Job. Now that Scotty’s in place we don’t need history, parties or even logos up on stage. He has a mother, a wife and two girls. That’s enough for any solo saviour.

    For the umpteenth time in his career Scotty has cast his eyes over the help and decided he could do a better job all by himself. He has risen to the top again, ready – again – to flame out over the Canberra bubble in a spectacular display of self-immolation, shaking heads and exasperation all ’round.

    The words of a past employer echo down through the years and the failed projects: “Scotty just couldn’t manage being a team player.”

  38. Let’s put polls to one side.

    Have a look at the Liberal campaign launch.

    Empty seats. VIPs absent. Speakers pausing for applause/laughter which didn’t come (later, someone obviously got their act together to gee up the crowd at appropriate places, but it was out of sync with the actual speeches…). Audience shots showed people who looked like they didn’t want to be there.

    It didn’t look like a party which thought that it’s going to romp it in. It didn’t look like a party which thought that it was even stevens. It certainly didn’t look like a party which thought that, yep, it’s a tough battle, but with a little effort we can get over the line.

    They’re the real insiders, folks.

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