Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. If they are really running with that story it will backfire so badly. Look at the plebiscite. We’ve put that shit behind us.

  2. a r

    I have only been there once – about four years ago – and it felt like it was on an inflection point and not prospering, as did the whole Wide Bay area really. Sounds like it is much worse now.

  3. So after an initial anxious response these results are actually pretty positive

    The 39 to 37 primary votes would surely comfortably deliver government to Labor given the last election’s 42 to 35.7 would have given a 74 -72 seat result on the new distribution.

    Shorten apparently has his best approval ratings since 2015 when he was contrasting with Abbott

    I still haven’t seen any commentary on the effect of the conservative seat contests on the “other” vote and its implications. In those seats there is generally a bigger impact on the Labor vote due to tactical voting than the L/NP vote. Allocating those 7 back 50:50 while the 8 combined PHON and UAP are distributed 60:40 into the national figure 2PP figure is surely an assymetric correction even if 1) the PHON and UAP isn’t inflated by explicit inclusion in the survey and 2) they actually flow that way

    We’ll see I guess, as we’ll see what new Shorten outrage news ltd has in store for us this week (apparently the courier mail tomorrow?)

  4. “Labor has adopted a conservative light position (Budget surpluses for ever) and being for Adani (subject to approvals) and so on and so forth.”…

    WRONG!… Labor is as far away from Conservatism (and you can safely add Neoliberalism) as it was in the times of Whitlam. Labor’s Budget Surplus stands on properly taxing the top 1% of the income distribution, the Big Companies and Multinationals, whilst delivering tax cuts on everybody else. That’s NOT Conservatism-Neoliberalism. That’s not “trickle-down” economics at all. Moreover, as demonstrated during the ALP response to the GFC, the ALP is more than happy to get into debt when the economy plunges. Again, that’s NOT Conservatism-Neoliberalism.

    The ALP is not “for Adani (subject to approvals)”, the ALP is in fact so much not for Adani that they have told Adani that there won’t be any Australian Federal or Qld Governments’ money for them, so they have to rise their own capital, but the banks won’t lend to Adani. Moreover, the strict environmental conditions will be enforced and are being enforced, against the manipulative propaganda of some vested political interests who always write innuendos about the ALP alleged “weakness” on the environment.

  5. Blackburnpseph

    I have never been polled in the prepoll period. Any who have – even robopolled – might be able to answer this. Prepolls are at 2.2 million – I expect over 3.5 million by polling day out of 15 million votes.

  6. Call me cynical however I don’t believe the Newspoll number for one second. The 2.4% margin for error will be well weighted in the Coalition’s favour, with creative use of data rounding. I suspect if it’s paired back to 1.2% then the number of 52.2/47.8 is closer to the mark.

  7. Rocket rocket, “presumably a 0.5% chance of hung parliament.”……but, but, Barnyard said on 9News today that a hung parliament was likely!

  8. nath

    If they are really running with that story it will backfire so badly. Look at the plebiscite. We’ve put that shit behind us.

    It will also condemn the Liberals’ (failure to) launch to oblivion – maybe that’s why they want to do it!

  9. Dog’s Breakfast

    Rocket rocket, “presumably a 0.5% chance of hung parliament.”……but, but, Barnyard said on 9News today that a hung parliament was likely!

    After how many drinks at the Scone races?

  10. “Imagine being as out of touch as Lars Von Trier.”…. But he is in touch!…. With the script of anti-Labor propaganda….

  11. I got polled today by UCOm? I think. They asked if I had already voted, planning to vote prepoll, or on the day. In Herbert. Been polled around five times this election so far.

  12. Here come the seat polls..

    #Newspoll Federal Seat of Bass 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (-3.4 since election) LIB 48 (+3.4) #auspol 

  13. So, another archly conservative smear of Bill Shorten, which will only serve to humanise him more? Bring it on! 🙂

  14. #Newspoll Federal Seat of Corangamite 2 Party Preferred: LIB 49 (-1.0 since election) ALP 51 (+1.0) #auspol 

  15. And Corangamite 51-49 to the ALP

    Given how shit seat polls are… I’ll take a lead for the narrative but I don’t put any stock in them.

  16. “I think it’s time people now accept just how much of an electoral drag Bill Shorten has always been to the Labor vote.”….

    Yawn…. It’s not just the votes that are nowhere to be seen on the Liberal side, but creativity too….

  17. bbp –

    an opportunity for some people to make merry and say any old thing

    Why, if someone wanted to ‘make merry’, would they restrain themselves because they had/had not already voted?

    Fundamentally if respondents want to play games with pollsters there’s not a lot anyone can do about it except to just accept that polling is inaccurate, and this kind of stuff probably averages out in the end…

  18. Couple things people arn’t thinking about too much.
    1 Million people have prepoll voted. And 100K extra young people jumped on the roll. Thanks Malcolm.
    And If my friends and I are to go by. I don’t often answer calls’ from unlisted numbers. So newspoll may be skewing to an older demographic. I think people are just waiting for next Saturday.

    Also, I’m seeing a lot of greens ads. I expect they won’t do any better than last time.

    And on a personal note. I’m kinda bummed out that Andrew Wilkie will survive on his ~20% margin. Safety like that makes you lazy.

  19. This on courier mail front page

    WORKER WHO PUT SHORTEN ON SPOT SUSPENDED
    EXCLUSIVE A Queensland port worker who tripped up Bill Shorten on Labor’s tax plan for high-income earners has been suspended and forced to find another job. The gutted 49-year-old father-of-three was told he was in breach for speaking to the media.

    1m

  20. If this is the anti Shorten front page story, its not what anyone was expecting. No suggestion Shorten had anything to do with it.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/worker-who-put-shorten-on-spot-over-tax-cuts-suspended/news-story/b63a3c7991efa2965853a54322559f1a

    Worker who put Shorten on spot over tax cuts suspended
    Renee Viellaris, Federal Political Editor, The Courier-Mail
    in an hour
    Subscriber only

    THE Gladstone Ports worker who tripped up Bill Shorten on Labor’s tax plan for high-income earners has been suspended and forced to find another job.

    The gutted 49-year-old was told he was in breach for speaking to the media when filmed questioning Mr Shorten at the Queensland Government-owned Gladstone Ports Corporation, saying “it would be good to see higher-wage earners given a tax break”.

    The next day the father-of-three’s pass did not work and he was officially told he was suspended. Last week his desk was packed up and delivered to his house.

    The experienced electrical engineer has unintentionally become a victim of the cut-and-thrust of a high-stakes election campaign, which will be decided by a handful of marginal seats, ­including Flynn, which includes Gladstone.

    Events unfolded at the port on April 23, when the worker made his off-the-cuff comment to Mr Shorten, who had approached him.

    The worker, who had earned about $250,000 last financial year, forgot his lunch that day and got caught up in the media scrum during a free barbecue.

    ………………….

    The Courier-Mail began making inquiries about the issue on Friday, and late that afternoon it is understood the man received correspondence from his employer Welcon Technologies, informing him his suspension had been lifted and he could return to work today. However the man had already taken on a short-term job elsewhere. Welcon failed to return calls yesterday.

    There’s no suggestion Mr Shorten had anything to do with the suspension. His office would not comment yesterday.

  21. Courier Mail,have put up an Exclusive

    Apparently the worker who fronted Bill Shorten on why not tax cut for him on $250k has been sacked, and is ‘gutted’

  22. J341983 says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 10:47 pm
    @Roger – the ALP primary was 34.7 in 2016 not 35.7

    Correct!

    In terms of the released marginals, I wonder if that is just a convenient selection? 4 seats including 3 with rather meaty swings to the coalition

  23. If that is all the seat polling then very selective indeed. Three labor and one liberal.

    One would think there are not many marginal liberal seats around the country in doubt.

    Cheers.

  24. Victoria @ #126 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 10:59 pm

    This on courier mail front page

    WORKER WHO PUT SHORTEN ON SPOT SUSPENDED
    EXCLUSIVE A Queensland port worker who tripped up Bill Shorten on Labor’s tax plan for high-income earners has been suspended and forced to find another job. The gutted 49-year-old father-of-three was told he was in breach for speaking to the media.

    1m

    I guess it will be spun to be all Bill Shorten’s fault he lost his job…Even though he seems to have found another one pretty quickly.

  25. Typical newscorp to want to run 3 of the 4 seat polls in labor held seats. Are they doing this just to get some dodgy numbers and then run a narrative of labor in trouble?

  26. Well if that’s meant to be a negative story for the Labor party, the political arm of the labour movement it’s another own goal. Who better to protect workers from unreasonable bosses than the ALP? This will be very easy to manage. It wasn’t Bill Shorten who suspended the guy (if the story is even true). He (Bill) can easily come out and say how unfair it is and people should vote labour to ensure that industrial unfairness like this is stamped out etc…

  27. Which explains Angry Agro (PMurray)’s comments about seat wins in NSW and QLD to offset losses in VIC.

    Awww michael, sweetie… you keep trying, it’s adorable.

  28. 3 of the 4 seats also had a Labor donkey vote in 2016 – Bass exception. That has effect of magnifying any shift in the 3 seats by about 0.7. Reverse in Bass.

  29. If I was Bill Shorten, I would call for the man to be reinstated/compensated, and say this shows the need to “Change The Rules” as far as restrictive IR clauses go.

  30. If someone has huge balls they can get $6.00 on the LNP on Sportsbet

    The odds will not change until tomorrow morning I think they have a guy that just does Election Odds

    I do not know but I get the Feeling of the SA State Election where everyone thought Liberals will walk to a win but Lost on close to 53% TPP and not winning Marginal Seats

    I think Morrison should spend at least 3 days in Melbourne and 1 in Brisbane and 1 in Perth

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