Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Burgey @ #1193 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 9:32 pm

    bryon

    Why will they stick? To most people Palmer is a bullshit artist who rips off workers. The libs doing a preference deal with him was a shocker.

    To the politically aware, to people who critically analyse information sure. To the majority of the electorate, if they saw it on TV/Facebook it might be true. If they saw it on TV and Facebook and some friend repeats it to them, then that is confirmation it is true.

  2. “which, also, both the United Australia Party and Fraser Anning’s outfit do.”

    which “also”, or which “alas”?

  3. The more you hear about the first home buyers deposit guarantee, the more it unravels. A questioner legitimately asks why Labor was so quick to match it.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    2. I simply responded to nath’s cheap shot. Obviously you think I should just turn the other cheek. Sorry, but to not call out toe rags, that equates to a form of online domestic abuse to my eyes, since we are all here in the same PB house.
    ———————————–
    Cat,
    Nath mostly only has cheap shots but sometimes shows his true self. I suspect buries deep beneath the facade is a quite nice person. I find him interesting. He on occasions shows some traces of intelligence but then reverts to his lazy parroting of the thoughts of shock jocks. I try to encourage the intelligent Nath.

  5. bryon @ #1191 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 9:30 pm

    Documentary length Palmer ad recently re ALP being a running dog of the Chinese and granting air/seaport access. Ignores the Libs selling the Port of Darwin and him selling a mine to Chinese interests.

    Seems apparent that Palmer is running as a front for the Libs to harvest preferences.

    Throwing lotsa lies and some will stick.

    I was gobsmacked when I saw that ad. 5 minutes of racist lies about the Chinese and slanderous assertions about Labor.

    I don’t want the Chinese to use their new found wealth to buy us up either but that’s what governments and the FIRB are for, to keep that in check. They definitely can’t engage with a State Labor government covertly to build deep water ports for their naval ships, as was suggested by that Palmer ad. Mark McGowan and Labor should sue Palmer’s fat arse off post the election.

  6. Looking at the comments on my Facebook political story news feed … jeepers the lib/nats are getting slammed 20-1 on each story .. people are pissed and they know who to blame …

  7. Has Nostradamus morphed into Lars Von Trier? Their shop-worn criticisms of Labor and Bill Shorten have a familiar ring to them.

  8. 😆 Nice zinger from Richo. Rowan Dean talked up some PHON Senate candidate in South Australia, “absolutely superb” apparently , Richo “Well if she was that good she wouldn’t be in One Nation”.

  9. C@t .. just wanted to add my concerns for the well being of your son … I have a 17 year old who has been driving his own car solo for about 3 months and I worry every time he is out …

  10. Confessions says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:43 pm
    The more you hear about the first home buyers deposit guarantee, the more it unravels. A questioner legitimately asks why Labor was so quick to match it.
    ———————————-
    We are less than a week out from the election. The policy will do no real harm because it wiil do almost nothing. Easier to neutralise it by matching it. If you tried to contour it you would consume too much time that is better used on other things.

  11. Burgey

    One thing I’ll give Barry Goldwater credit for – in 1972 when the Democratic nominee George McGovern lost in a landslide to Nixon, Goldwater was one of the first to ring him. Apparently he said words to the effect of “If you lose, lose big – otherwise no-one will remember you”.

  12. @cat
    Just read posts about your son’s accident last night. So scarey for both of you. Lucky fella to have you and your fortitude. Big hug

  13. Peter Stanton

    Easier to neutralise it by matching it. If you tried to contour it you would consume too much time that is better used on other things.

    Yes you don’t want to spend the last week of the campaign talking about the ONE new policy that the Morrison Party came up with on the weekend. Waste of air time.

  14. “Ignores the Libs selling the Port of Darwin and him selling a mine to Chinese interests.”

    Also ignored the fact that the Coalition has been in power Federally (where foreign investment decisions are approved) for 6 years.

    This is “Boats” in a new form, exploiting fear of foreigners.

  15. Plibersek trying to lose the election for Labor tonight on Q&A …. like she wasn’t briefed or something ? Something wrong… richard d going ok .. bagging libs …

  16. This is what Shorten said today on the first homebuyers scheme –
    Question: On the first homebuyers scheme that you signed up to yesterday, what problems do you envisage there might be with that policy and does it deserve modelling and consultation to check its effect on house prices?

    Shorten:
    I will get Chris to supplement it because he’s been working very hard in this policy, but let’s call it as it is. I think the government scratched around yesterday looking for something to announce because all they do is talk about us. So they proposed a modest program, a small program, which might assist 10,000 people. If you want to tackle housing affordability, it is the much bigger picture. Property investors are being subsidised by Morrison government to buy their sixth or seventh house.

  17. Confessions says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:54 pm

    Tony Jones just pinged Birmingham: you sound like you’re in opposition.

    Bit of a cheap shot this late in the piece.

    They’ve sounded like that for much of the last 6 years.

  18. Purchase Price $600,000-

    Deposit $30,000-

    Borrowing $570,000-

    Plus there are costs to the transaction being legals, document preparation, Valuation Fee, Loan Approval Fees, Stamp Duty on the Transfer (discounted in some jurisdictions) and Registration Fees

    Then you have to take out Insurance on the property (where those costs go up and up)

    Then we have interest rates at historical lows – so they will go up

    IF this scenario leads to Mortgagee stress and Notice of Demand is issued then you have the application of penalty interest rates and charges, the costs of legal proceedings to assume vacant possession and costs of marketing and auction

    So the attendant costs to the lender issuing a Notice of Demand are horrific – absolutely horrific

    Underpinning this is that the government has issued a Guarantee

    So the aggregate of process leading to Bad and Doubtful Debt provisioning will see the Guarantee called in by the lender

    And those monies will flow to Solicitor and Accounting practices acting for the bank as Mortgagee

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Sub prime debt

    Everyone is rich enough to do something (even pay rent) the secret not to over commit and equally not to under achieve

    This policy is Fool’s Gold to people not rich enough to enter into the transaction they are entering into

    And it will end in tears (as with raiding accrued superannuation and Reverse Mortgages – and Franking Credits)

    People living outside their means – and being encouraged to do so by government

    Disgraceful and irresponsible

  19. New polling in the Victorian seat of Higgins suggests the Greens candidate, Jason Ball, could take the seat from the Liberals in a major upset on 18 May.

    An interview poll of 400 respondents in Higgins undertaken for the Greens by Environmental Research & Counsel puts Ball in the lead on the two-party preferred calculation, even though the Greens’ primary vote is one point behind Labor.

    The Liberal vote in the survey is languishing on 36%, Labor is on 30% and the Greens are on 29%. Liberal strategists say if the primary vote in Higgins falls below 45% either Labor or the Greens will take the seat, which has been held by retiring cabinet minister Kelly O’Dwyer since 2009.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/13/higgins-polling-suggests-greens-could-take-seat-from-liberals-in-upset

  20. Is it against PB rules to appreciate both GG and C@t, without getting involved in their differences?

    It’s usually the would be peacemaker that cops the punch on the nose, from all the protagonists.

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