Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. The economic analysis of the child care segment was ridiculous

    The policy is targeted directly at wages, explicitly to increase the real take home pay. Whatever mechanism they end up using it explicitly will not just be absorbed into company profits, with wages left unchanged….and yet that was the experts opinion

    And who was he?

  2. ltep says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 8:50 pm

    GetUp must have some really good research to know down to the hundred votes how close it is.

    I think it’s more code for,

    don’t take it for granted, you could be the difference.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #1013 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    1. Practice what you preach, Greensborough Growler. I am not interested in your sex life, and maybe you might want to keep your daughter’s achievements to yourself if you want to not be thought a hypocrite.

    2. I simply responded to nath’s cheap shot. Obviously you think I should just turn the other cheek. Sorry, but to not call out toe rags, that equates to a form of online domestic abuse to my eyes, since we are all here in the same PB house.

    3. Kind people reacted naturally to my experiences over the last 24 hours. So I paid them the courtesy of replying to them. You, on the other hand, chose to abuse me. Thanks for nothing.

    4. You don’t run this blog. So you can take your opinions and rotate on them. Me, on the other hand, I will react naturally and favourably to kind people on this blog who care about me.

    5. You may not have noticed but I didn’t run to the blog last night or this morning with the news about my son’s car accident. THAT would have been seeking to draw attention to myself unnecessarily and inappropriately. I only mentioned it in passing by way of explanation for why I misread Goll’s Ipsos post.

    6. I didn’t see you getting your knickers in a twist about BB’s posting about his cataract operation last week. That’s not ‘psephy’ either, yet you can’t wait to lick his boots when he posts his personal bon mots about HIS life. So why the double standard? Or even Douglas and Milko’s retailing her exploits in Germany on her holiday. Can’t remember reading any criticism of that from you.

    So, why pick on my extracurricular posts?

  4. The sheer frequency of “contributing” to this site raises questions as to the association those contributors have with society

    We had an insight recently, calling on government to purchase residential and commercial real estate holdings to suppress rents and make rents affordable (to who and by what criteria?) supported by there being no restriction on the debt government can accrue in accumulating that property portfolio and in providing a wage to those requiring to occupy such premises (rent free?)

    Ironic that they post on Poll Bludger, hey?

  5. don says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 8:56 pm
    Sportsbet has Labor on 1.14
    The coalition is SUS.
    But then we all knew that.”

    A few days ago the market for both Abbott & Dutton being booted (1.70) was declared SUS but then resumed at 1.80.

    Maybe one of our betting people can explain what this means.

  6. William Bowe says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:44 pm
    You kids shouldn’t play so rough. Someone’s gonna start crying.
    —————————————————

    Many have never stopped crying.

  7. Confessions @ #1146 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:49 pm

    Oh okay, so basically Rex is parroting rightwing, reactionary media talking points. I did see that debate end on the news last week and completely dismissed it for the non event it actually was. But the 2GBs and the Australians of Aus media landscape certainly arked up about it.

    Yes, I, too have noticed that Rex Douglas dresses up RW talking points in a Green dress in order to give them camouflage.

  8. Observer

    Sydney is up there with San Francisco New York and London in terms of renting.

    Melbourne is not far behind.

    You don’t have to be on Newstart to be having problems renting in these cities

  9. Lars, labor easily can, and almost certainly will, form majority government on under 40% primary.

    But I agree we likely will never see labor above 40% federally again. This is not a bad thing.

    Labor’s historic plurality, ranging between 42-47% of the electorate, can be rebuilt. The election of a united, reforming, modernising Shorten government is a step towards this.

    The Libs, their clones and the kin will try desperately to obstruct and disrupt Labor in order to advance their own careers. They must not be allowed to succeed.

  10. C@tmomma says:
    2. I simply responded to nath’s cheap shot. Obviously you think I should just turn the other cheek. Sorry, but to not call out toe rags, that equates to a form of online domestic abuse to my eyes, since we are all here in the same PB house.
    _____________________

  11. ” Did you see the childish tantrum she threw the other day ?

    It was quite shocking.

    I hope you don’t have children if you think that was a tantrum.”

    Tantrum?……….I await Scomo’s concession speech. 🙂

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:07 pm
    Confessions @ #1146 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:49 pm

    Oh okay, so basically Rex is parroting rightwing, reactionary media talking points. I did see that debate end on the news last week and completely dismissed it for the non event it actually was. But the 2GBs and the Australians of Aus media landscape certainly arked up about it.

    Yes, I, too have noticed that Rex Douglas dresses up RW talking points in a Green dress in order to give them camouflage.

    The Lib-Libs and the Lib-Kin are united on a few things: they think they’re better than Labor; that Labor is unworthy of office; that Labor must be defeated.

    The Lib-Kin are splitters and spoilers, as were the DLP in the period prior to 1972.

  13. Why in the hell would the nation want to vote these old dinosaurs back into power!?!

    That Tony Abbott became PM reminds me anything is possible with the Australian electorate.

  14. Steve777 says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:18 pm
    Labor will only attain 40% primary vote if the Green schismatics rejoin the One True, Holy and Apostolic Party.
    ———————————————————————————-
    I believe in one true ……..

    Amen to that

  15. “Laura Tingle on 7:30 Just said liberal strategists are gloomy and think they’ll lose 10-15 seats in her segment”

    Has Paul Murray eviscerated her yet on this evening’s soapbox?

  16. Steve777 says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:18 pm
    Labor will only attain 40% primary vote if the Green schismatics rejoin the One True, Holy and Apostolic Party.

    If Labor govern well they (The Gs) will lose their relevance and their ability to attract support. It’s also possible for Labor to rebuild by providing a consistent and successful alternative to the (deeply fragmented) right.

    Labor’s market share can be increased by delivering on its promises….and by campaigning on its success.

  17. Documentary length Palmer ad recently re ALP being a running dog of the Chinese and granting air/seaport access. Ignores the Libs selling the Port of Darwin and him selling a mine to Chinese interests.

    Seems apparent that Palmer is running as a front for the Libs to harvest preferences.

    Throwing lotsa lies and some will stick.

  18. citizen

    Skimmed through and thought you were referring to the Abbott/Dutton betting SUS(pended) the other day. Now I see – the Coalition had gone from 6.00 to 5.75 today but now betting is suspended on them but Labor at 1.14 is still available.

    I note while following AFL games online (where the betting market is next to the scoreboard) that in the last few minutes the market is always suspended, and similarly if a team is 80 points up with ten minutes to go.

    I think bookmakers sometimes suspend markets if they think some new information is influencing the market (like shares in a company on the stock market being suspended before some big announcement by that company).

    I don’t know what it means – maybe they are just reframing their markets. A few contributors here have worked in the gambling/gaming industry – maybe they would know. I note that the Coalition are still 7.20 on Betfair.

    And William’s Ladbrokes link still has the Coalition at 6.00 and Labor at 1.12

  19. briefly
    says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:26 pm
    Steve777 says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:18 pm
    Labor will only attain 40% primary vote if the Green schismatics rejoin the One True, Holy and Apostolic Party.
    If Labor govern well they (The Gs) will lose their relevance and their ability to attract support.
    ___________________________________________
    Most Green voters are not going to vote for the likes of Shorten, Feeney, Kitching, Farrell, Raff Ciccone, Tony ‘mine the Tarkine’ Burke et al. Never again.

  20. bryon

    Why will they stick? To most people Palmer is a bullshit artist who rips off workers. The libs doing a preference deal with him was a shocker.

  21. Bryon

    Almost as bad as his ad saying shorten wants to raise 1 trillion dollars in taxes. Apparently you can just say whatever the hell you like in electoral advertising apparently.

  22. “Labor will only attain 40% primary vote if the Green schismatics rejoin the One True, Holy and Apostolic Party.”

    Yeah, nah. Stay the fuck away. Besides, most greens activists are either trots, sparticists or tree tories and none of them had anything to do with the Labor Party ever.

    Many Greens voters can be wooed back to the one true party without bringing along the filth with them. As briefly said, the election of a united, reforming, modernising Shorten government is a step towards this. consistently in conduct whilst in office will be the key. It may take more than one term, but lifting labor’s primary vote above 40% is doable.

  23. As one who lived in Warringah for many years, there was a strong Independent/Green/Democrat section of the community and we fought hard to get Dr Peter MacDonald elected . He would have made an excellent federal MP but the Lib rusted-ons clung to Abbott.
    Warringah is much more diverse these days so am hoping for the young vote to swing against Abbott.

  24. Media Watch is a blood boiler! Apparently it’s within ABC policy for political ads to appear on its TV broadcasts, and this includes Fraser Anning’s and Clive’s mobs!

  25. Very impressed by the new Labor climate change/ coalition of chaos ad. Seen it 5 times across 9 and 10 in the past hour or so. The whole death tax ad with Daily Terror headlines is a bit odd from the Libs, not sure what to think of it.

    Some idiot (to some a journalist) over at the Australian has an article about how some small isolated incidents of anger against Liberal Party women is emblematic of the downfall of democracy thanks to militant insurgent forces. What a scare piece if I’ve ever seen one. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/democratic-society-under-attack/news-story/96b06bd687eeba8f9067749abb70f383

  26. The ABC has had “party election broadcasts” since forever. In the UK it’s the only sort of broadcast election advertising that’s allowed. The guidelines say a party is entitled to it if it has parliamentary representation — which, also, both the United Australia Party and Fraser Anning’s outfit do.

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