Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.
Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.
Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:
Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.
Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.
Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.
Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.
There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.
I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:
As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.
In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.
UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.
The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.
I bet all the marginals have been polled by various pollsters, and if those results were released, the close election narrative would end.
Lars …
Fess and GG,
I’ve done it business class and it’s still a bastard of a flight.
Oh I dunno. I detect something of a talent for trolling.
adrian @ #1093 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:07 pm
Liar. I have never had lap band surgery in my life.
@Lars Von Trier
That is why I believe Anthony Albanese as leader would have allowed Labor to win big, which is needed to completely humiliate the right-wing nutters in our political sphere. Honestly two terms of big Labor wins would be needed in order to achieve this and force the Murdoch media to stop enabling them.
Don’t know who Steve Irons is? Currently Member for Swan in WA. Not sure about his campaigning style…
https://mobile.twitter.com/matttburke/status/1127864464051539969/video/1
I couldn’t agree more Tristo.
Which genius believed the original creator of Leadershit – Shorten, was a good leader?
The ALP is incapable of clear cut policy – they were against Adani before they were for it.
And why not just say we will make sure public services are properly funded, instead they’ve spent a month talking about franking credits which no one understands but the Liberals have managed to devastatingly simplify to “retiree tax”.
Go figure!
I thought the 7.30 segment on childcare was fine. The difference between labor and coalition was made clear.
Labor will provide cheaper childcare for all families up to $174000. Made as clear as could be.
Re the wage increase. Giving a pay increase to those looking after children was put into clear perspective by the childcare educator in the segment. Compare that to the response from Alan Tudge ( I think ) making very clear it should be left to the market. Not a good look.
Anyway, just my take. Sometimes I think I must be watching these programmes from a different universe.
Cheers to all.
Lars, labor easily can, and almost certainly will, form majority government on under 40% primary.
But I agree we likely will never see labor above 40% federally again. This is not a bad thing.
“That is why I believe Anthony Albanese as leader would have allowed Labor to win big”
I don’t know. After his pandering to the shock jocks about the horses on the opera house thing, I’m not all that convinced.
Lars Von Trier @ #1106 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:16 pm
Yes the franking credit changes were bound to be difficult to sell with Bowen and Shorten charged with selling the policy.
taylormade says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:36 pm
Why would you think this, considering she’s one of the most recognised and respected politicians in the Country?
Barney in Saigon @ #1111 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:20 pm
Did you see the childish tantrum she threw the other day ?
It was quite shocking.
Vogan,
That “ economist “ was a real dick head.
You are right. Any aged care worker wanting to move into childcare would need at least a level 1 certificate and with a pay increase fewer childcare educators in long day care would leave and thus fewer vacancies.
Cheers.
Sportsbet has Scrott at $1.70 to be Leader of the Opposition after the election.
and for what it is worth HI has just suggested that some mechanism should be developed so that having pre-polled, your TV then blocks all political advertising.
Lol are people still complaining about Shorten? The guy has united the labor party and after only 2 terms is in prime position to win back government after electoral wipe out in 2013 and a party divided. If you said in 2013 that labor would be the stable option in 2019 and the libs are a divided rabble people would think you’re deranged.
The guy has been underestimated for years, yet he’s still there and on the cusp of becoming PM. Stop underestimating the bloke
Burgey:
I’ve done it business class too, and agree it’s a terrible flight even in business. But I imagine it would be made all the more comfortable without the presence of hordes of unknown passengers, where you have the freedom to move around the plane as you wish and not be bothered by other passengers moving around to use the toilet or call the flight attendants.
shorten is doing fine as leader.
the retiree tax spiel is biting though.
2010 is a good metaphor for this election. There is no enthusiasm for either Liberal or Labor. The desperate flying around by the 2 conservative parties is all about finding some last minute weakness to fall over the line.
It seems to be the preferences from PHON and UAP will decide this election.
Who would have thought Labor would blow a 16 point lead in 9 months – that is almost 2 points a month.
It doesn’t take much to shock you Rex. I reckon you would spend half your life being shocked by one thing or another.
Tories or One Nation or both are desperate – more fakery
A media release fuelling fears a Labor government would reintroduce death duties has been called out as “fake news” by the public relations firm it appears to impersonate.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was last month forced to denounce “lies” on Facebook claiming a Labor government would introduce inheritance taxes – claims that were then adopted by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.
An apparent media release circulated on Monday purporting to be from a body called the Victorian Housing Action Network referenced a speech by Victorian state Labor MP Danny Pearson in 2017 in which he stated his personal support for death duties of 5 per cent.
The email appeared to impersonate Essential Media, a major left-aligned communications and research firm, by using the email address “essentialmedia@iinet.com.au”. It called on Mr Shorten to “disown and rule out” death taxes, which he has already done.
Essential Media handles communications for the Everybody’s Home campaign, a coalition of groups pushing for greater action on affordable housing.
Major players in housing policy said they had never heard of the “Victorian Housing Action Network” nor its alleged contact person, Sally Kellerman, who shares the name of an 81-year-old American actress.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/bizarre-tricks-labor-hit-by-new-fake-news-media-release-stirring-death-tax-fears-20190513-p51mue.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true
Darn @ #1121 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:30 pm
The rest of it disappointed and outraged by the same things.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:53 pm
This is at your idiotic best!
If, as preferences are distributed, he climbs above the other candidates and ends up with more than 50% of the vote, then he would be just as deserving as any other winner.
An unlikely occurrence, but possible.
I just saw a One Nation ad on tv. Why does it have a random ominous noise played at the very end?
Dog’s Breakfast @ #1116 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:24 pm
It’s called the OFF switch. 😉 😆
Rex Douglas @ #1114 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:22 pm
For heaven’s sake! An entirely reasonable reaction to that lying shit Birmingham.
At 7.30 pm on Saturday night we will know it was the handshake that did Labor in… Again.
“Retiree Rax” is a lie, pure and simple. Anyone seeing an ad that includes that term should report it as fake news / misleading / spam. There is no new tax and no tax applying specifically to retirees. What is happening is that a handout is being withdrawn.
There’s not much the ALP can do if the libs just lie and run around screaming retiree tax, especially with Newcorp at their backs.
I think it highly likely we won’t know the result at midnight. Morrison won’t concede if there is any smidgen on doubt.
Does 4 Corners normally do a pre-election overview?
This dysfunctional government has crippled the economy and with it the well being of the majority of citizens over the last 6 years with its adherence to the right wing ideology that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence trickles down to citizens
To me, that is the issue when voting at this election
In support of this being the issue I refer to the National statistics and the commentary of the RBA Governor
Everything else, including the non sensical contributions to this site by some, are just background nonsense which ignores the obvious gorilla in the kitchen
Right wing economics and the damage being inflicted on the numbers of people being disadvantaged – including those reliant on government support (and I do not include those availing of Franking Credits and other advantages built into our tax system in that number)
So get real people and call out what needs to be called out
And change the government (to Labor)
Fess,
True that. I sat next to Neil Perry on the flight back once and took delight in telling him
How bad the food was lol
I didn’t. What are you referring to?
Are we sure that Kim Long Un hasn’t assumed control of Twitter?
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 8:22 pm
I hope you don’t have children if you think that was a tantrum.
It was the point where the LNP scum abandoned 90 years of Australian tradition and good faith for nasty political advantage and absolute LNP morons, I mean the dumbest of a really really stupid club, thought Penny should have shaken the bastards hand. No decent intelligent person would have formed that conclusion.
Wong not shaking Simon Birmingham’s hand.
Total non-event in reality but an unforgivable act in Rex’s childish nitpicking worldview.
Burgey:
LOL! I once sat next to the assistant coach of Essendon, and we were in front of other coaching staff sitting behind us. That was a fun flight. Me being a Carlton supporter they all gave me shit, but it was great to reminisce about the Essendon greats of the modern era and get the insider goss on them.
citizen:
If you have advice on how to get back English, I’m all ears!
Observer
Taking a break from paperwork, saw your post.
This dysfunctional government has crippled the economy and with it the well being of the majority of citizens over the last 6 years with its adherence to the right wing ideology that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence trickles down to citizens
Absolutely. I still hear people quoting the Reinhart–Rogoff fraud.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt
In the UK this disastrous austerity obsession from the Tories is a bigger problem than Brexit, and whether the UK leaves or stays, it is slowly destroying their nation.
GetUp is telling calling volunteers that there is only a few hundred votes in it in Dickson.
Oh okay, so basically Rex is parroting rightwing, reactionary media talking points. I did see that debate end on the news last week and completely dismissed it for the non event it actually was. But the 2GBs and the Australians of Aus media landscape certainly arked up about it.
GetUp must have some really good research to know down to the hundred votes how close it is.
A Scotty faux pas pounced on by Julie Kardashian..
‘Former foreign minister Julie Bishop has split with Scott Morrison over Australia’s relationship with China.
The prime minister raised eyebrows on Monday when he described China as a “customer”.
“I don’t see it that way at all,” Ms Bishop told reporters in Perth.
“I think our relationship with China is one of deep and mutual respect.
“We are partners. We are trading partners. We have worked together in a whole range of areas.
“And so, the relationship is one of equals.”
“Confessions says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 8:46 pm
citizen:
If you have advice on how to get back English, I’m all ears!”
Unfortunately I don’t use Twitter (I only read the tweets)!
I see Laura Tingle is on the money. Telling it how it is, the Coalition to lose by 10-15 seats.
Doom and gloom in Liberal ranks, as reality seeps through.
Watching the Liberal reaction on PB to the impending loss on Saturday night has been a real hoot.
I’m enjoying it immensely, keep it up please.
Sportsbet has Labor on 1.14
The coalition is SUS.
But then we all knew that.