Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Clem

    See BBC interview. Andrew O Neil interviewing Ben Shapiro for his book to see a real snowflake.

    To give you an idea. Ben Shapiro in the interview calls the Chairman of the Spectator a “leftist”

  2. Laura Tingle on 7:30 Just said liberal strategists are gloomy and think they’ll lose 10-15 seats in her segment

  3. C@tmomma @ #1046 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1046 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    adrian @ #1025 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Says the ABC blog Monitor.

    But for the record, responding to another poster is actually the “bread and butter” of PB. So, any attempts by fwits like you to close me down will be met with the derision you deserve.

    You don’t deserve attention, or ‘closing down’ because, you see, I don’t roll like that, unlike you, who is trying to close me down atm.

    Say something Psephy. A percentage would do.

  4. Sheesh! All this because I simply mistook what Goll posted about Ipsos!

    Anyway, I’m off to watch Masterchef. Argue yourselves stupid about it without me for a couple of hours. Though, hopefully you will have found something better to do by the time I return.

  5. Liberal / Country Party launch showed the shallowness of their policy .. the backdrop changed from country Party Green to Liberal Blue at the flick of a switch.. The Regional voters will be sooo impressed.
    Which substance free party to choose.

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #1056 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:42 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1046 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1046 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    adrian @ #1025 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Says the ABC blog Monitor.

    But for the record, responding to another poster is actually the “bread and butter” of PB. So, any attempts by fwits like you to close me down will be met with the derision you deserve.

    You don’t deserve attention, or ‘closing down’ because, you see, I don’t roll like that, unlike you, who is trying to close me down atm.

    Say something Psephy. A percentage would do.

    I did. But you obviously didn’t notice that.

  7. Laura Tingle on 7:30 Just said liberal strategists are gloomy and think they’ll lose 10-15 seats in her segment

    hmm. I should record that. 😉

  8. Scotty’s housing deposit scheme is mirrored on a similar scheme that Menzies started back in the 60s! The Libs can’t even do innovative policies!

  9. If you want to compare Labor , federal election trend since the libs/nats been in government

    2013 Labor primary vote 33.4% = 55 seats
    2016 Labor primary vote 34.7% = 69 seats
    2019 Labor primary vote 36%+ = Net Gain seats to win government

  10. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:44 pm

    Upnorth

    Oops. My ‘mistook’ ,yes Google said Korean not Chinese.’

    Hmmm… Kim Il Morrison… not Xi Morrison?

  11. Nath is the Steven Bradbury of pollbludger apparently. Fun fact, he has an Order of Australia medal, but then who doesn’t?

  12. Political strategists telling someone in the media a few days out from an election how many seats they expect to lose seems counterintuitive to me.

  13. Firstly, I hope your son is OK, C@t.

    Secondly, even if C@tmomma didn’t have a shitty day, it’s no big deal she accidentally assumed a poll prediction was reporting of an actual poll’s numbers. I have done that before. Most of us have. It’s an honest mistake to see “Ipsos 52-48 to Labor” or whatever and think the actual results are being reported. Everyone makes errors, it’s what helps us be better.

  14. great to see The Guardian and other media finally raise Morrison’s behaviour during the SSM debate and abstaining from voting against the overwhelming Yes vote of his electorate. He also hedged on whether gays go to hell. That’s where he’s going on staurday.

  15. This 7.30 report on education is illustrative of the inadequacy of journalism in Australia.
    LNP lies endorsed. No mention of LNP cuts to education. No real analysis.

  16. Ha, ha so true guytaur. Moderate, lines up with Dutton, Abbott et al, supports Tory policy all the way re trickle down economics you can bet, probably hates unions, but hides behind a ‘moderate’ moniker. yeah right, talk about virtue signalling and hiding motive. If you support this shit, then be open and proud about it. I guess moderate is also a ‘modern Liberal.’ Lol.

  17. adrian @ #1076 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    This 7.30 report on education is illustrative of the inadequacy of journalism in Australia.
    LNP lies endorsed. No mention of LNP cuts to education. No real analysis.

    I heard a couple of mentions of coalition cuts and Labor promises to restore the funding that had been cut, and then some.

  18. Parramatta Moderate –
    It’s not just that seat based polls have been notoriously shit – they certainly have, and seem to give almost no predictive value.

    It’s also that we haven’t had any systematic releases of marginal seat polling. We’ve had a handful, and it’s unclear why we only have those seat results.

    Without being able to see some clear consistent, systematic polling of marginals there really is nothing to go on.

    All we really have are the national polls that are vaguely credible, and what the parties are actually doing.

  19. Morrison sandbagging in Perth again this evening – in Swan.

    Hope he gets the red eye back tonight. Experience tells me it’s a cast iron bitch and leaves you grumpy and tired the next day

  20. ABC Childcare hatchet job.. all they had to do was look at the reason for the wage subsidy, to lift the standard of carers & help retain them in the industry.. reason to benefit the children

    From ALP site..
    Far too many early childhood educators leave the profession – 37 per cent a year – not because they don’t love the job, but because they can’t afford to stay. If Australia wants the world’s best early education system, then we need to do more to keep our best educators in the system.

    No one knows the importance of keeping quality educators in their jobs better than the millions of Australian parents who trust early educators with their children every day.

  21. Sceptic @ #1041 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:37 pm

    730 is doing childcare…. doing is the operative word
    I’m sure the ABC is more biased than Fox/ Sky afterdark

    C@tmomma @ #1035 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:36 pm

    adrian @ #1028 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Thank you, adrian. He’s such a frigging hypocrite because I still remember how he regaled us last New Year’s Eve with too much information about giving his wife a rogering.

    Yeah, plus his lap band surgery and whatever. Hypocrite is the word!

  22. Hope he gets the red eye back tonight. Experience tells me it’s a cast iron bitch and leaves you grumpy and tired the next day

    Won’t he be in the comfort of Air Force 1 (or whatever the Australian version of it is)?

  23. I doubt we will ever see a Labor PV of 40% or more ever again.

    The best hope at this late stage is a Labor minority supported by Bandt, Oakeshott and Wilkie. Hopefully the Greens insist on Cabinet seats and don’t settle for confidence and supply.

    Having to have Shorten supported by Labor Shadow Ministers in advertising tells you everything you need to know about how unpopular he is with the electorate.

  24. I just think it’s hilarious how the efforts of “Michael” fizzled out during this particular fracas. A perfect illustration of how satire has become redundant around here.

  25. I watched the 7 pm repeat of the Drum (excellent except the pompous old guy) and the ABC24 kept a big message about Assange up on screen for the whole program, obscuring the names of the panel. I only watched it on the say so of others here, but hardly ever watch the ABC these days. Whoever runs the Drum/ABC24 behind the scenes is a moron.

  26. Lars Von Trier @ #1095 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 8:08 pm

    I doubt we will ever see a Labor PV of 40% or more ever again.

    The best hope at this late stage is a Labor minority supported by Bandt, Oakeshott and Wilkie. Hopefully the Greens insist on Cabinet seats and don’t settle for confidence and supply.

    Having to have Shorten supported by Labor Shadow Ministers in advertising tells you everything you need to know about how unpopular he is with the electorate.

    Geez your films were pretentious shit, not that your comments are any better.

  27. The “expert” on the ABC childcare report said that aged care workers might all leave to become childcare workers because of Labor’s wage increases.
    Of course they’ll be qualified to do so….

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