Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 21 of 29
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  1. C@tmomma @ #995 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:19 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #963 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #955 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:02 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #951 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    C@tmomma @ #943 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    zoomster @ #919 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    ..and nath’s first impulse on hearing C@’s news??

    And his second impulse was to go you because I am, temporarily, out of bounds. 😐

    Truely, wtf do you give him the time of day?

    He didn’t do anything different today than he does any other day.

    But, you having a problem day makes him a bigger dick than he already is?

    Help yourself, comrade.

    It’s called Christian charity, GG. I thought you might be familiar with the concept. Though, as I said earlier, sometimes the outstretched hand just keeps getting bitten.

    Nah, it’s attention seeking. And, it’s you doing it.

    Either ignore him or admit you’re besotted.

    May I politely say, piss of, GG. You don’t know my mind. So, I think it was entirely appropriate to respond to nath’s dig at me about my reply to Goll’s post by telling him the back story to it. If you call that ‘attention seeking’, then I truly feel sorry for you and I can only but conclude that you must be a tin dog in search of a heart.

    If I recall, this is a psephy site and not a stream of teenage angst raging against life unfair.

  2. I’m trying to make sense of the polls and betting markets. The market has Labor massively favoured, at $1.12. But unless I’m mistaken, seat-level polls look pretty good for the LNP. They seem to show the LNP just holding on to their own marginals such as Corangamite, and picking up small but decisive swings in Labor marginals like Herbert and Lindsay. Which would mean (shudder) a further 3 years of rule by the right. What’s going on here? I know seat-level polls are unreliable, but is it likely they would all skew t0wards the LNP? Have there been any seat-level polls at all showing Labor ahead in an LNP marginal? Cheers

  3. davidwh:

    I think it’s more than just a moderate vs hard right MPs thing. The entire party structure does not seem to be conducive to effective or sustainable policy making, so those internal debates that need to happen (eg quotas for women, position on AGW abatement etc) happen in a vacuum, without leveraging the ballast of the party to make sure what is agreed becomes the platform.

    If MPs choose to disagree with policy, in the Liberal party they have the ability to vote against it. But this shouldn’t trigger a meltdown if the policy has been formulated based on consensus and evidence or community consultation as has happened in the past.

  4. “I detect in the community a lot of growing suspicion that Bill Shorten is after your savings,” says John Howard in Sydney today….and they lapped it up at a supermarket in Warringah.

    ‘It took John Howard just one minute to deliver the campaign’s most potent attack on Bill Shorten’ according Annabelle Crabbe.
    Never mind that it’s not true eh Annabelle.

    Actually, I’ve seen many many more minutes of attack ads saying just that.

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #1002 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #995 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:19 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #963 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #955 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:02 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #951 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    C@tmomma @ #943 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    zoomster @ #919 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    ..and nath’s first impulse on hearing C@’s news??

    And his second impulse was to go you because I am, temporarily, out of bounds. 😐

    Truely, wtf do you give him the time of day?

    He didn’t do anything different today than he does any other day.

    But, you having a problem day makes him a bigger dick than he already is?

    Help yourself, comrade.

    It’s called Christian charity, GG. I thought you might be familiar with the concept. Though, as I said earlier, sometimes the outstretched hand just keeps getting bitten.

    Nah, it’s attention seeking. And, it’s you doing it.

    Either ignore him or admit you’re besotted.

    May I politely say, piss of, GG. You don’t know my mind. So, I think it was entirely appropriate to respond to nath’s dig at me about my reply to Goll’s post by telling him the back story to it. If you call that ‘attention seeking’, then I truly feel sorry for you and I can only but conclude that you must be a tin dog in search of a heart.

    If I recall, this is a psephy site and not a stream of teenage angst raging against life unfair.

    Yeah nah. It is that, and more. But you keep taking your bitter pills now, you hear? You seem to enjoy them. Especially the way they make you but in on other people’s business.

  6. cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

  7. Okay then. Labor ads galore tonight. Even one with Shorten, Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek, Albo, Bowen, and Butler.

  8. davidwh
    davidwh and moderate
    The conservative heartland of the Liberal Party call you both pinko greenies behind your back.
    Join the good guys if you haven’t already voted.

  9. ‘Okay then. Labor ads galore tonight. Even one with Shorten, Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek, Albo, Bowen, and Butler.’

    Same here.
    It’s the big push.
    This is where they swing the undecideds.

  10. Confessions

    Apparently it is Chinese and Mr Google translated them as being “Authenticated account 2 hours” and ” 2 hours”

  11. Wow Abbott just said those who are considering not voting for him are not true Liberals, this was on the ABC News in NSW.

  12. Boerwar:

    Thanks. Bluey’s report is a lighthearted and fun way of catching up with the day’s events!

  13. Confessions says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:18 pm
    Peter van Onselen인증된 계정 @vanOnselenP
    2시간2시간
    I’m looking forward to being on Network Ten’s election night panel this Saturday… #auspol

    And I’m looking forward to twitter getting back to English instead of whatever language its platform is currently using.
    ———————————————————————————-
    Korean – NOT Chinese

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

  15. Hopefully this election will result in a humiliation for the hard right in the Coalition and their backers in the News Limited media outlets. If it wasn’t for the Howard government and News Limited dominating our media landscape, we would much more like New Zealand politically. The predominance of right-wing lunatics in our political landscape honestly shocks many American friends I have, along with being incredibly embarrassing internationally.

  16. FMD… Bloody ABC News ( normal not News 24) has totally lost the plot.. spends 5minutes + interviewing Abbott & Steggall.. why does the rest of NSW have to suffer a puff piece.. what’s with the ABC .. no news in Australia or the rest of the world. Not to mention the new desk-less format.. useless.

    Enough to make you vote for Abbott to hasten demise of the ABC

  17. Victoria
    Every day I urge Bluey to take the sort of balanced approach practiced at that Journal of Record: ‘The Australian’.
    Bluey reckons he does.

  18. adrian @ #1028 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Thank you, adrian. He’s such a frigging hypocrite because I still remember how he regaled us last New Year’s Eve with too much information about giving his wife a rogering.

  19. Aw diddums the poor widdle Moderate crying off because the big bad Labor guy questioned his moniker on here. So Mr Moderate, how do you square away Tudge, Christiansen, Abbott, Dutton, Kelly and all the other ‘moderates’ in your party? Don’t piss in my back pocket and then try to convince me it’s raining.

  20. 730 is doing childcare…. doing is the operative word
    I’m sure the ABC is more biased than Fox/ Sky afterdark

  21. Parramatta Moderate says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:23 pm
    I’m trying to make sense of the polls and betting markets.

    ——————
    The federal election trend of the libs/nats in government the declining libs/nats combined primary vote and seats show @39% , comfortable win for Labor

    2013 Libs/nats combined primary vote 45.6% = 90 seats
    2016 Libs/nats combined primary vote 42.1% = 76 seats
    2019 Libs/nats combined primary vote under 42.1% = Lose number of seats ,no net gain to retain government

  22. adrian @ #1025 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Says the ABC blog Monitor.

    But for the record, responding to another poster is actually the “bread and butter” of PB. So, any attempts by fwits like you to close me down will be met with the derision you deserve.

  23. Sceptic:

    I had no idea the private sector had such a huge operational footprint in child care. How and when did that happen?!

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #1046 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    adrian @ #1025 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Says the ABC blog Monitor.

    But for the record, responding to another poster is actually the “bread and butter” of PB. So, any attempts by fwits like you to close me down will be met with the derision you deserve.

    You don’t deserve attention, or ‘closing down’ because, you see, I don’t roll like that, unlike you, who is trying to close me down atm.

  25. C@tmomma @ #1033 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:36 pm

    adrian @ #1028 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1010 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    cat,

    I don’t care about your business. But, you love to put it out there for every one to see.

    If you want to do it, do it somewhere else than PB.

    Who gives a flying fark what you think about what others post?
    Until such times as you are appointed blog monitor or head prefect, how about shutting the fuck up?

    Thank you, adrian. He’s such a frigging hypocrite because I still remember how he regaled us last New Year’s Eve with too much information about giving his wife a rogering.

    What a pathetic piece of lying rubbish. You really need to get over yourself.

  26. Parramatta Moderate

    there is a bit of discussion a few pages back on pb
    The rare seat polls showing libs ahead imo have been picked up by the msm, perhaps to give the impression of a close race and many other unpublished polls in vic if they exist I would almost guarantee show alp miles ahead.
    I agree with the bookies, it won’t be close at all.

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