Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.
Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.
Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:
Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.
Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.
Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.
Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.
There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.
I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:
As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.
In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.
UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.
The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.
It would be nice if QandA was as quality as the Drum.
Scout @ #914 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
Always, Scout! Like Chumbawamba, I get knocked down but I get up again. So does my son. 🙂
ABC News Sydney is from Warringah. Including Abbott and Steggall.
C@tmomma @ #878 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:15 pm
Shit. So easy. Is he OK?
Greensborough Growler @ #951 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:59 pm
It’s called Christian charity, GG. I thought you might be familiar with the concept. Though, as I said earlier, sometimes the outstretched hand just keeps getting bitten.
Late Riser @ #957 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:01 pm
All shook up. But that’s all. His car, not so much. 😐
Excellent interview Patricia Karvelas ABC RN on Torres Straits people taking taking a complaint to UN Human Rights Committee alleging human rights impacts because of Australian Govt failure to take adequate action on climate change. Just the sort of issue that will galvanise climate change mobilisation. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/13/torres-strait-islanders-take-climate-change-complaint-to-the-united-nations
Sorry Clem – I had the audacity to post here. I’ll crawl back under my rock old son.
I support small l liberal politics. I have been a strong supporter therefore of the NSW Lib govt who contrary to the echo chamber here have got it right more often than wrong. And the electorate seems to agree with me.
If you’d prefer I post with a different nomleclature, let me know what you’d prefer. I suppose I was up for some proper chat on the state of play – but you just reinforce the small mindedness of some of the people in this place…..
nath is an evil monster and should be banned.
C@tmomma @ #955 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:02 pm
Nah, it’s attention seeking. And, it’s you doing it.
Either ignore him or admit you’re besotted.
Victoria @ #920 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:39 pm
Me too! 😀
Thanks, Vic.
Voter in Warringah
Abbott has well and truly had his day
C@
Hopefully your son learnt not to swerve for wildlife/ animals
Hang in the Moderate. You are entitled to express your views.
Moderate, if you’ve got something to post it’ll be appreciated by plenty. And those that don’t appreciate it, who cares?
All the best for your son C@t.
Vogon Poet @ #966 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:06 pm
He has now! 🙂
I hope Abbott and Dutton both go…..( so does Morrison most probably )…..lol
I may need Moderate’s support after Saturday.
What did Scotty fly the length of our wide nation for? For a 1 hour announcement? Before flying back to Sydney FFS? Does this tell you where his vote is tanking?
Scott Morrison visiting Perth Hockey Stadium, part of Curtin University, to announce funding of $600,000 to upgrade the change rooms for the National Women’s Program. Currently only men’s rooms here #auspol
davidwh @ #969 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
Thank you, davidwh. And you know what makes PB so special? Times like this and people like you. 🙂
I hope Abbott and Dutton both go…..( so does Morrison most probably )…..lol
It is a very difficult time for small l liberals, the federal party has abandoned them completely.
Things must be bad for the LNP – push polling in Ryan, one of their safest seats. Oh wait the LNP say its not them, must be the Courier Mail instead.
“The LNP is “push polling’’ voters ahead of Saturday’s federal election, including in the Brisbane seat of Ryan, an opponent says.
A longtime resident of Taringa, in Brisbane’s inner-west, also said he was disgusted at the “robocall’’ he received last week.
Labor candidate for Ryan, Peter Cossar, said he had ironically also received one of the calls which he said was “without doubt’’ a push poll.
A push poll is a fake survey designed to scare recipients about real or made-up policies of a political party.
But a spokesman for LNP Ryan candidate Julian Simmonds denied they had engaged in the practice.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/lnp-denies-brisbane-push-poll-claims/news-story/73240a9829cc72da3409b4893e990360
All the best, C@tmomma.
🙂
Nicko yep 🙁
Nicko
I agree.
C@t:
I don’t know what happened to your son, but I hope he is okay.
All the best C@t. Don’t let the horrible nath get to you.
Can somebody post how many pre-poll votes are casted till now?
edit
Are there any moderates left at local Liberal branches?
davidwh @ #968 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 5:10 pm
Can I infer from this that you’re not in the PvO camp of wanting a large Labor win in order to ensure the Liberal party does the soul searching it hasn’t done since the 1980s/1990s? I prefer a large Labor majority for obvious reasons, but the clean out the Liberal need is very much long overdue.
Sprocket
Not if Victorian. Extremists R Us have taken over.
No wonder Sky News is going all out for a Tory Government. They need another hand out.
“Foxtel has flagged a cut to its spending on “non-marquee sporting content” and another price rise for customers after its controlling shareholder News Corp revealed the pay TV provider made a financial loss of $417 million in 2018.
News Corp was forced to disclose the information to the ASX Monday morning as it had provided the information to potential lenders as it seeks refinancing for Foxtel debt totalling $US1.68 billion.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/foxtel-signals-price-hike-cuts-to-non-marquee-sports-after-417m-loss-20190513-p51msx.html
guytaur @ #951 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:00 pm
I like Benjamin Law, but this both major parties are the same line is so old, particularly when it comes to climate change and the environment.
There are major differences, which none of the participants acknowledged..
Who will be the leading voices for the moderates after the election? Marise is very low-key. Birmingham I suppose.
Not one member of the you beaut whizz bang young things on the Drum seemed to know that Labor introduced a carbon price, which one of them had said was necessary if we’re serious about addressing climate change.
No one, not even the token old dude said well Labor introduced one under Julia Gillard and Australia voted to abolish it.
No, it was all about a pox on both parties.
It’s like 2010 – 2013 never happened.
davidwh @ #972 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:15 pm
There shouldn’t be.
PVO has been pushing #fakenews. Who woulda thunk it?
Scotty has not, repeat not, flown back to Sydney after a 1 hour photo op/pork handout. Rather:
PM has moved to a Liberal campaign rally in Perth seat of Swan. Former Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is here too #ausvotes @politicsabc @abcnews
ltep @ #977 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:17 pm
Phelps.
And I’m looking forward to twitter getting back to English instead of whatever language its platform is currently using.
Fess I’m happy if most of the old guard far right members get tossed out but knowing how things go it will probably be mostly moderates who fall. I mostly want two things, a comfortable win for Labor and for the Libs to wake up to themselves.
Phelps won’t be around after the election.
Greensborough Growler @ #963 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:05 pm
May I politely say, piss of, GG. You don’t know my mind. So, I think it was entirely appropriate to respond to nath’s dig at me about my reply to Goll’s post by telling him the back story to it. If you call that ‘attention seeking’, then I truly feel sorry for you and I can only but conclude that you must be a tin dog in search of a heart.
mundo
Labor has itself to blame for that.
All that scapegoating the Greens by taking the line of the right.
Appeasing deniers was never going to work and Labor should have recognised that.
mundo @ #988 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 7:18 pm
In fact the woman from the Grattan Institute flat out said that a carbon price was not on the table, or something similar.
The token white dude is a Lib, Mundo. Really pathetic discussion.
Bluey Report
Bluey was distracted by reality today so hasn’t followed things to carefully. This has been therapeutic.
Bluey was in a public place where a seated crowd of around 15-20 people all of whom had the option of listening to the news on television or of doing something else. Morrison was spuming, there were attack ads, there was some batty commentary from morning show airheads…all the usual political blather. Just the one person watched the TV. There were morning newspapers available. No-one bothered. Apart from the one rather dazed looking victim, every other person was staring into space or diving into their personal social media gadgetry. There were no conversations. Bluey reckons that nobody is listening to anything any more.
Bluey notes that some arsehole tried to set a candidate’s car on fire. By world standards a bit of standover bovver boy stalking at just one of the polling stations, a few corflutes defaced, two eggings, and one count of attempted car arson from a total of 16 million electors is miniscule noise. Bluey reckons well done, Straya!
As for the polls, Bluey reckons that there has been a base support for Labor of between 51.5% and 52.5% for yonks and that that has not been changed by anything at all. There might be a few seats go this way or that way for regional reasons. There might be a bit of argy bargy in the preference flows. But basically, since al we have been looking at polling that delivers a Labor Government. Bluey reckons that this time next week Prime Minister Shorten will be managing Australia with an experienced and highly competent and united team committed to social justice principles and committed to dealing with the existential issue of Global Warming. Bluey warns readers that it will be very bloody boring.
OTOH, Bluey reckons that there will movement at the station at both the Liberals and the Nationals. The ex PM might get a gig as a crowd warmer at Happy Clapper gigs. The ex DPM might get a job counting dead cod at Menindee. Bluey reckons that nobody will give a flying fuck about who replaces the dynamic duo.
Bluey notes that Joyce has popped the Nationals leadership question back into play and that the National and Liberals candidate for Mallee are getting stuck into each other. Bluey reckons that this is seriously bad discipline in the week before the election.
Bluey notes that Morrison has now lied that the Coalition took the Reef off the Endangered List.
Think about that. The Prime Minister has deliberately told a huge lie about an asset worth $6 billion to GDP and which supports 60,000 jobs. Plus Bluey has skin in this game. His coral pool has gone from being a rainbow wonderland through dead white to dead grey. Fucked.
Morrison went so far as to congratulate Hunt for taking the Reef off the Endangered List. Bluey reckons that there are four Big lies here:
1. That there is and endangered list.
2. The Reef was on the non existent endangered list.
3. That Hunt was a useful Environment Minister because he took the Reef off the list.
4. That the Reef is not half dead and slated for complete death by mid century.
Once again, Morrison has shown a willingness to tell big, obvious lies.
Like the Government put up legislation to stop Australia’s Anthropocene Extinction event. Lie.
That Price would comment on the UN Extinction Report. Lie.
Like we are in the Budget black. Lie.
Score for the Day: Labor 1; Liberals 0.
Cumulative Score: 28; Liberals 4.