Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 29
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  3. Cat.

    Where possible public transport has a lot going for it.

    Glad to hear it’s almost best outcome. Unlike the M7 the other day.

  4. Psyclaw @ #899 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    GG

    Thank you for your counsel.

    However this blog is characterised by the fact that a group of self proclaimed gatekeepers and self described “long term PBers” make comments that range from unpleasant to disgraceful to totally incorrect, and silence prevails no matter how outrageous.

    Someone has to call them out, and I do so. I now it is unpleasant work but someone has to do it.

    I forgive you and expect you’ll do better in future if your current posts are to be believed.

  5. ltep @ #897 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    All the best for your son c@t!

    Thank you. We were lucky to find a good, safe car to replace the one that he crashed in. I made him drive it back from where we went to purchase it from so that he would be able to get back in the saddle again as quickly as possible. I thought that was the best way to go. I was driving in front of him in case he lost his nerve.

  7. TPOF @ #898 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    And keep well C@t and family. I appreciate (most of) your contributions.

    Your son writing off a car and the shock involved is a shit thing to happen at the best of times.

    Thank you, TPOF. I appreciate (most of) my contributions too. And 99% of yours. 🙂

  9. C@t doing tough mother-love.
    You get right back on that horse, young man!!

    Very glad it was only the car that was written off. 🙂

  10. Best wishes for your son,C@t. Keep him working wherever he can, the more he does, the easier the next opportunity will be. Us workaholics need to instill this in our kids.

  13. Anyhoo, back to polling and stuff. So, I was polled by Ucomms. Now, I haven’t seen the results of any of their polls mentioned in the media. Does that mean that, as a result of being a polling company owned by the Unions, that they are the ones doing the daily tracking polls for the Labor Party?

  14. Don’t know who Benjamin Law is, but he is a terrific host of The Drum.

    This is an electrifying conversation.

    Congrats to all participating.

  17. “Zoidlord says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:20 pm
    From PVO
    So the PM flew from Sydney to Perth for….wait for it….one hour today and is flying all the way back to Sydney shortly. ‍♂️ #auspol ”

    They would hardly have time to refuel the plane and restock the liquor cabinet.

    The flight must have cost the Liberals a pretty penny.

  18. GG

    Yeah the Greens are competitive against a Liberal and we have Labor people backing the whine of the losing candidate.

    If it was Labor that did exactly as the Greens you would have an entirely different narrative.

  24. There’s the woe is me comment from the well healed boomer on the Drum. Puts me off dinner.

    C@t, I hope your son is doing well. These things are an awful shock regardless of the fact he’s got through it. My best to you all.

  25. sprocket_ @ #909 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    Best wishes for your son,C@t. Keep him working wherever he can, the more he does, the easier the next opportunity will be. Us workaholics need to instill this in our kids.

    Exactly. You know, with some of them, not having a job becomes a kind of institutionalisation and it’s not, like the Liberals like to portray it, that they are lazy and don’t want to work but that they lose the ability to scrap around in the real world until they get one. From which a whole new vista opens up to them. 🙂

  26. Looks like Howard’s appearance in Warringah today hasn’t motivated the punters. Still 1.80 Steggall and 1.90 Abbott.

  27. zoomster
    says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 6:36 pm
    ..and nath’s first impulse on hearing C@’s news??
    ________________________
    I note that your first impulse was not to say anything to C@t but to have a go at me. In fact there was silence from you towards C@t and her news.

  28. @Bushfire Bill

    Benjamin Law is great. He’s mainly a writer, with focus on the experience of being a young, gay, Asian Australian.

    He wrote a TV series called “The Family Law” loosely based on his own life growing up. Worth a watch.

  30. citizen

    I suppose like the ghost of Christmas past, Libs will continue to drag Howard out for many elections yet!

  33. Reading posts from adults picking on each other is really boring and depressing, especially when they all have aliases.

  36. In the Greg Hunt poster above, he says that Shorten ‘started’ GetUp.

    Aaron Murphy @AaronMurphy1990
    3h3 hours ago

    Bill Shorten was on the inaugural board, I believe, but so too was John Hewson

  38. adrian @ #937 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:50 pm

    All the best C@tmomma.

    Toby Ralph is a dickhead.

    Thanks, adrian.

    Yes, you have to wonder about these types that have invested their whole life and their life’s work in the Liberal Party. 🙂

    Grahame Morris and Ian Hanke are 2 other highly objectionable Liberal functionaries.


  39. Don’t know who Benjamin Law is, but he is a terrific host of The Drum.

    He’s from Queensland, and he’s here to help.

  41. ‘Nailed it. Franking Credits a distraction’

    Sort of.

    If you’ve seen the coalition ad running in Tasmania where there’s no mention of ‘franking credits’…nah, it’s called the ‘Retirees Tax’ and that’s not a distraction that’s a killer.

  42. How on earth would any individual labeling themselves as ‘moderate’ support the present day Tories?

  48. Burgey @ #923 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:40 pm

    There’s the woe is me comment from the well healed boomer. Puts me off dinner.

    C@t, I hope your son is doing well. These things are an awful shock regardless of the fact he’s got through it. My best to you all.

    Thanks, Burgey. Yes, it’s that sense of losing control and realising what a dangerous tin can you’ve been zipping along in, oblivious to its potential for damage to you!

  49. C@tmomma @ #943 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    zoomster @ #919 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    ..and nath’s first impulse on hearing C@’s news??

    And his second impulse was to go you because I am, temporarily, out of bounds. 😐

    Truely, wtf do you give him the time of day?

    He didn’t do anything different today than he does any other day.

    But, you having a problem day makes him a bigger dick than he already is?

    Help yourself, comrade.

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