While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
Not inner city (far from it) but yes, we laugh.
National Polls arent that insightful now, state breakdowns would be useful, be its really down to seat by seat.
Morrisons isnt acting like he can win, they are frenzied that they have paid every price, sold their souls and the future of the party, and this is what it has come to, trying to defend Farrer and their 70% 2pp…
Every time Lee was asked to step up between 2001 and 2007 he failed to do so. Was genuinely terrible. Most over rated quick we’ve ever produced.
I only see Palmer and Liberal ads on SBS
Channel 7 is showing ALP ads
Gary Ablett Snr was a great footballer, hopeless at anything else, who lost his way/dignity when his football career was over
The Sawford formula (and the lack of progressive policies from Shorten Labor) suggest ScoMo will be re-elected.
Just watched Paul Murray for a bout 3 minutes and I now feel homicidal.
Thanks Lars.
Lee took his first 50 wickets at under 20 – and finished where he did courtesy of 2 lengths and being seduced by reputation of being fast
I tend to judge performance by stats v England, which is the consistent opposition across generations
So Lee does not stack up on performance – and is a very long way short of a decent record
John Bannon was a handy leg spin bowler in Adelaide Turf playing for PAOC
And a well known runner, competing in public events including marathons
Passed away too soon
A gentleman and highly competent – hence Dunstan’s protege
It also suggested Kevin Rudd would win in 2013.
Oh Jesus the Sawford formula getting a run, hurry up with the Newspoll Sky.
Yeah hurry up so I can go to bed
Wayne Goss was a fair distance runner too. Unfortunately like Bannon passed away far too soon
“It also suggested Kevin Rudd would win in 2013.”
Maybe he did….who knowns how Rupert and the Russians changed the votes using the darknet.
Or something….
The Sawford Formula should have seen the ALP win in 2013.
Just Sayin’
FWIW, I’ve seen all of two Lib ads but have seen plenty of ALP ads but I don’t really watch TV and mostly catch them while my housemate watches TV in the background. One thing I have noted is the almost regularity that Palmer ads have been appearing. There might be a surprise there, considering what he’s thrown at us this election. Hopefully it’s at the expense of the Coalition and far right, and not of Labor or the left.
See what you mean about Paul Murray.
Georgina Downer (at least I’m thinking it’s her) on Sky says the Morrison govt backed first home buyer’s deposit guarantee is good policy, yet says Labor’s support for it is bad policy.
51 ALP 49 LNP official
Intellectual heavy weight Adam Giles says privatise the ABC in metro areas and keep it in govt hands in ‘the bush’. How does he think this would work in practice?
Ok thanks sprocket!
An hour or so ago I sent Rebekha Sharkie an SMS wishing her all the best for next Saturday and received a nice reply very shortly afterwards.
Bannon was a left-arm slow bowler for SPOC.
No change newspoll
What the fuck is wrong with voters?
so both Labor and LNP PV goes up 1%? Statistical NOISE people!!!
Ghost 51/49
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (0) ALP 51 (0) #auspol
Newspoll unchanged 51/49 via @ghostwhovotes just now.
Big lift in ALP primary..
Labor remains poised to win government next weekend with Bill Shorten receiving a boost to his personal ratings despite a further lift in popular support for the Coalition.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the race to next Saturday’s poll remains tightly contested with the Coalition lifting its primary vote a point to 39 per cent going into the final week of the campaign.
But it has not been enough to shift the two party preferred vote with Labor still leading on 51/49 per cent after also lifting its core support a point to 37 per cent.
The results follow the release of Labor’s policy costings last Friday which the Coalition believed would be the weak link in Mr Shorten’s campaign.
They also are likely to reflect the impassioned public response from the Opposition leader to newspaper reports last week suggesting he had been selective when citing his late mother’s career achievements
While the headline numbers are largely unchanged from last week’s poll, Mr Shorten’s personal ratings received a boost.
He has now closed the gap on Scott Morrison to seven points in the contest over who would make the better prime minister lifting three points to 38 per cent while Mr Morrison dropped back a point to 45 per cent.
The number of undecided voters was 17 per cent.
Georgina should write out every new first home buyer a very big cheque and get a photograph with the lucky recipients.
Might help her when she campaigns again in 2021 or when ever.
We should start a poll to see which seat the Princes is going to run for.
Murray should be wearing a blue rosette and handing out HTV papers, any credible Sky journalist aka Speers and Gilbert should be handing in their notices, its embarrassing, nonone watches the drivel anyway and its preaching to the converted, but still shameful to actually think i subside this S++T in my subscription….
“51 ALP 49 LNP official”
LNP to win 90+ seats based on that.
Just wanted to get in first.
Something for everyone then in Newspoll.
@sprocket_
I predicted the latest Newspoll would be a 51-49 result, not a bad result for the arguably the most dysfunctional Federal government in Australian history.
Ipsos 52/48.
51/49 says Ghost
That Newspoll is absolutely status quo isn’t it? A point up each on primaries and no change on TPP.
Labor’s Vote at 37% must be close to a TPP of 52 I’d have thought, but haven’t crunched the numbers
Gil Langley not only was a Test wicketkeeper but a State and Sturt footballer (Aussie Rules).
So I get to brag 51-49 increase in ALP primary and Shortens approval. 🙂
Both parties one up on primaries, which suggests a drift away from others/minors as shit gets real.
See …. its the Sawford formula playing out!
37 ALP primary makes me happy. Even if I’m getting to the point of ignoring polling lol.
I know a mundo, who thinks of ghosts(who vote)
he’ll make ya breakfast, he’ll make ya toast
But he don’t use butter, And he don’t use cheese
he don’t use jelly, Or any of these
he uses Vaseline
37 primary is fine too. Particularly if it edges up in the actual count.
TT
In cricketing circles Gil Langley quickly cam to be known as “The Member”.
He was an absolute character!
If I recall correctly, there was talk about Mal Meninga having a skeleton (or 2?) in the closet and that is why he withdrew. It may be related to this;
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/bevan-meninga-brother-of-nrl-legend-mal-meninga-to-be-released-from-prison-after-serving-21-years-for-murder/news-story/ee9ca6c8930e7903706624b6031d22fb
‘What the fuck is wrong with voters?’
Post of the night.
I’m going to trust sprocket_ on the 51/49, so the following guessed right:
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Edi_Mahin
Evan
Expat
Geetroit
Kirky
ltep
Mavis Davis
max
ruawake
Steve777
Work To Rule
Congrats and a short bow to you all. 🙂
I think any lift in ALP primary is good news at this stage.
Since both majors got a lift of 1%, that must have come from undecideds or minors?
If its from minors..better news. 🙂