While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
I can remember catching the trolley buses to school in Seven Hills, Brisbane in early 60’s. Driver had get out and reattach the trolley arms quite often as I remember. Good fun for primary school kids.
Twitter questioning Chris Kenny’s analysis…
Chris Kenny just said on @SkyNewsAust that newspol is tightening with Libs likey to pick up seats in NSW and QLD but may lose seats in Vic. I call shenanigans. #Newspoll
‘If 51-49 is the best Newspoll can manage a week out I am feeling less pessimistic.’
Can you give me the recipe so I can make some….
sprocket_ @ #1043 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 8:42 pm
What is with league refs. Not content with ruining the game they have to go join the LNP in QLD and screw shit up there.
Coalition primary up and Labor at the same wouldn’t be the best.
Chris Kenny just said on @SkyNewsAust that newspol is tightening with Libs likey to pick up seats in NSW and QLD but may lose seats in Vic. I call shenanigans. #Newspoll
______
I think I’ll wait for William’s analysis thank you!
1. Butter
2. up to you.
That may indicate that the Newspoll will come with state breakdowns, which would be helpful.
AFL is the sport of choice for toothless racists and Neanderthal knuckle draggers who love sticking bags of meth up their rectal passages and punching on at the MCG while shouting ‘monkey’.
A national disgrace.
Must be one of the most belligerent – but funny – posts in recent PB history.
Love it!
Wikipedia says Bannon’s best time in the Adelaide Marathon was 2:44 in 1983 when he was Premier.
Sub 2:30 would have put him very close to representing Australia.
Is margarine ok?
Straight out of the fridge or room temperature?
Burgey
Spot on re Lee. Not many fast bowlers with 30+ averages play as many tests as he did.
Kept Stuart Clark out of the team for too long.
Itep – not ideal, but wouldn’t likely make much difference when actual preferences are considered.
Labor at 36 primary will win.
Paul Murray the f**kwit has gone troppo. What an embarrassment. I’m only watching to see the Newspoll but if this keeps up I may have to ring Lifeline on his behalf.
PB on the verge of resolving its Qld conundrum
I just watched 4 commercials on SBS in a break, three of them EXACTLY the SAME Lib attack ad: “The Bill you can’t afford.”
THAT is why the polls are slipping.
Where is Labor?
Or .. William, is just consistent with DT’s “interview” that suggested losses in VIC will be countered by gains in NSW/Qld
Shellbell
When Lee outed himself as a Tory in the lead up to the 2013 election, it confirmed every bad thought I’d ever had about him. And they were legion.
Jeff
What was “Wallaby” Bob McMasters thinking! Abdulla the Butcher had obviously broken the rules of Wrestling and should have been disqualified.
Cleary must have been paid a fortune to humiliate himself with that crap – the NSW LA must have seemed civilised in comparison
Mick @ #1121 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:11 pm
Yes that was quite something.
Paul Murray going melancholy mad in his opening tonight. The full Colonel Kurtz.
Tingle and ABC: boo
Shorten shit.
17% interest rates.
Whitlam. Terrible. Sent the country broke (nothing to do with the two oil shocks of course).
The great ALP-Zali Steggall conspiracy.
This guy is just a fucker.
Mick
PM troppo with excitement or not?
If LNP is improving PV and picking up seats as their campaign gets worse and ALP and Shorten get better, then must be something wrong somewhere
“The Bill you can’t afford” is a clever line which might resonate with some voters.
sprocket_ @ #1069 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 6:51 pm
Having met Brett Lee socially, it’s lucky he had some skill in cricket. He’s a complete and utter arsehole otherwise. Him endorsing Abbott doesn’t surprise me in the least.
Re Paul Murray…….what did he say…..?
BB, you assume those ads actually work. I don’t.
“If LNP is improving PV and picking up seats as their campaign gets worse and ALP and Shorten get better, then must be something wrong somewhere”
The Australian people?
I dont think you are taking this seriously.
What did Murray get up too?
‘“The Bill you can’t afford.”’
BB
I was about to say, if the coalition is returned it’s because that one bad pun convinced enough dumb voters.
It’s been running here in Tasmania wall to wall.
Unless Labor has something special for the last week, well….I don’t want to say it…
@Ven or this is a reverse 2004 where the polling adjustments missed what was going on.
Not hanging my hat on it, but I’m having a hard time matching the polling with the campaigns. Neither are acting like this is actually close.
I think one of the great scandals of this campaign will be just who funded the barrage of Liberal ads in the lasr gorynight of yhe campaign.
Next ad break on SBS: 6 commercials, 4 Lib, one UAP, one “Australian government, Canbetra”.
Elsewhere …
Stephen Mayne
@MayneReport
Seems to be more Labor attack ads than Liberal hits on 60 Minutes and Seven’s Sunday Night on this final high rating Sunday night before Australia decides.
‘I dont think you are taking this seriously.’
What, saturated fat or polyunsaturated?
The poll isn’t out yet. Patient.
Newspoll or Bluey … the squid wins hands down!
The publishing of donations real time would be fascinating.
Paul Murray with Malcolm Roberts on his eligibility must be one of the top five stupid episodes on Aussie tv
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/his-honour-paul-murray-finds-malcolm-roberts-is-not-an-alien-20170728-gxkn85.html
Mal Meninga: the shortest political career in the history of Australian politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt–SGmIKIQ
Sky After Darkers cannot find anything positive in anything Labor has put forward in the last week.
Of course they are not biased towards Scummo. More of the same is the way to go.
Wanna be millionaires doing the bidding of the billionaire.
Paul Murray losing it is a good sign the LNP are poll losers surely
@BB have you looked at the audience share numbers for SBS? If there’s Coalition saturation ads for such a low share market they must be to address an identified problem with the segment watching SBS on a Sunday night.
“Spot on re Lee. Not many fast bowlers with 30+ averages play as many tests as he did.
Kept Stuart Clark out of the team for too long.”
Yeah, nah, burgey and shellbell.
Lee was not used properly in tests: too many long spells (and consequent injury breaks) led to him being a non strike-strike bowler. Totally different outcome to his ODI record – where is is just about the best all time.
In tests, he should have been used for 2-4 over shock spells: (1) he wouldn’t have been injured so much, and (2) would have probably had a strike rate better than 50 (which is the standard for a test pace-strike bowler).
Even my 85 year old mother records TV so she can fast forward thru the Ads. TV advertising is becoming useless but people are scared to stop.
Izzy @ #1143 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 9:20 pm
Most people who watch SBS are inner city lefties, they’d laugh at those piss weak ads…
Watching Kayo sports over the weekend, ALP attack ads interspersed with ALP feel good ones. Nothing from Libs or Clive
guytaur @ #1142 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 9:20 pm
Possibly an improvement for Labor on 2PP with increases in primary vote for both Labor and LNO?
Paul Murray with Adam Giles, Georgina and Kroger.
That’s not even scrapping the bottom of the barrel: that’s scrapping shit off the bottom of your shoe.
“Paul Murray the f**kwit has gone troppo. What an embarrassment. I’m only watching to see the Newspoll but if this keeps up I may have to ring Lifeline on his behalf.”
He’s totally lost the plot. Every time I tune in he’s even more unhinged than the last.