While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
Molan on Sky News still advocating for an informal Senate vote in NSW – just vote 1. Molan below the line.
Given Sky’s audience I sincerely hope for Labor’s sake that the sheep follow the leader.
I seem to recall Mal Cochrane considering politics. Google is not my friend on this one.
Growth in the economy.
Oh now he qualifies that by advising voters number a further 11 below the line after that.
Went for a bike ride along the Eastlink trail last Friday morning, passing a Tunge billboard at Watsonia Oval – no mention of the Liberal Party on it
Just that he was the MP
And, as RR acquaints, it is first past the post in the UK – and voluntary voting
Brent Tate, retired Aus, Qld and Premiership winning NRL player and does commentary now (I believe on FOX) is a labor man.
He did some ads for the Unions during the Campbell Newman campaign if my memory is correct.
Also the recent photos of Bill Shorten running through Townsville with JT – Jonathon Thurston might say something. I know it is big in north queensland.
I saw a funny meme with Pauline Hanso advising people not to use ‘arabic’ numerals when voting. i would post it here except that it may contravene the electoral act as it would be encouraging an informal vote!
European elections in the UK use PR at the regional scale.
May have trouble with the NRL types and Labor, but no probs with cricket.
Given Chloe is married to Bill Shorten it is clear she does not have good taste in men, the same is true for Mrs Morrison. Both of the men are morally bankrupt and I doubt their wives would be much different.
My Newspoll guess for tonight/tomorrow is no change in 2PP. But an increase in ALP primary and in Shorten approval, Galaxy will find a way to adjust preference flows and round down enough to stop any ALP momentum stories.
The larger Newspoll on Friday will give the normal preference flows and show an easy ALP win.
Open the tweet to watch the video
https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1127494834229366785
Nine News Sydney @9NewsSyd
Barnaby Joyce is refusing to rule out an attempt to regain the leadership of the National Party, as he tries to shake off the scandal in his personal life. @cokeefe9 #9News
6:44 PM – 12 May 2019
UK polling report on the new Opinium and ComRes polls. Sort of a William Bowe for the UK, Anthony Wells of YouGov puts the recent polls into some much needed context.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10058
“Both of the men are morally bankrupt and I doubt their wives would be much different.”
You really are an obnoxious grub.
Here is one of Brent Tates Union messages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9-G_Ay78g8
RR @7:53
“I saw a funny meme with Pauline Hanso advising people not to use ‘arabic’ numerals when voting. i would post it here except that it may contravene the electoral act as it would be encouraging an inforaml vote!”
That Insta /Twitter (?) post was linked on PB earlier this morning I believe. Was clever, but judging by the comments on Insta / Twitter (???) many people didn’t grasp that it was a joke.
BT @ #957 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:53 pm
It uses D’Hondt. A description of which is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method#Regional_D'Hondt
And more info here: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/european-elections-2019-d-hondt-voting-system-how-meps-vote-works-explained/
Chris Kenny repeats the Molan Mantra: just vote 1. Jim Molan below the line. I hope NSW Liberal voters take this advice to heart.
Good get – Morrison originality!
Neil McMahon @NeilMcMahon
Ronald Reagan, Republican convention 1984.
Mitt Romney, Republican convention, 2012.
#promiseOfAustralia
So, who’s constantly refreshing Ghostwhovotes tweets?
Rocket:
There’s always a tweet!!
Rocket Rocket
My first car!
Gotta say.. I can’t remember seeing even ONE Labor ad on TV so far.
I’ve heard the Libs are supposed to be broke, but somebody us paying for their unrelenting splurge of TV commercials. One after another. There’s no end to the bloidy thi gs.
edi_ please turn your device off and have a good hard look at your self, it is getting beyond a joke.
Been out all afternoon, so apologies if this is old news, but lizzie says she’s fine and will be posting soon.
imacca, anyone who supports the jailing of refugees in foreign countries is morally bankrupt. Morrison is doing this and is proud of it, Shorten will do this, there will be no different. Their wives stand beside them and support them while they spew this policy, surely they also agree with the policy.
Late Riser @ #948 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:48 pm
Could you throw in a standard deviation to help out a stats nerd?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #931 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:32 pm
Nice way to stereotype a whole bunch of people you don’t know.
@Edi_Mahin
Ooohhh another greenie doing lib lab Same Same.
martine henry, I am waiting for Newspoll to come out.
I AM NOT A GREENIE. DO NOT SPREAD LIES ABOUT ME.
Brent Tate does have a massive jaw.
From Father Rob Bower
#MyMum was forced to relinquish me at birth.
#MyMum rescued me from the hospital and taught me resilience.
#MyMum saw me for the first time when I was 29.
#MyMum is two courageous women.
Happy #MothersDay to #MyMum
Pretty scary that the median, mode and average are exactly the same!
The Greens are pro abortion, I could never vote for them with this pro-death policy.
BB
If you are in Lyne or Cowper it used to be the case that the ALP candidate paid for the TV and Radio ads out of their own pocket
A true vanity exercise
“My Newspoll guess for tonight/tomorrow is no change in 2PP. But an increase in ALP primary and in Shorten approval, Galaxy will find a way to adjust preference flows and round down enough to stop any ALP momentum stories”
It’s been the steady decline of labor primary votes over the past month that has had me worried. I’m hoping for an uptick from both Newspoll and Essential in labor’s PV. I couldn’t give a rats about Ipsos.
If Jim Molan wins re-election via below-the-line votes while Lisa Singh’s efforts fall short, it’ll confirm that this world is an even colder, harsher, crueller place than I thought.
Work To Rule @ #975 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 8:07 pm
1.6 at the moment with 87 respondents. I’ll see if I can make that a permanent stat.
Electric Trolley Trucks in Deutschland
Thanks for the clarification Edi_Mahin – it leaves us Greens with our dignity intact.
Frydenberg is working his backside off In Kooyong. He’s already spent north of a million to hold on. His 2pp in 2016 was I think almost 63 per cent, vs the ALP.
But I’m told he will fairly comfortably retain, despite the efforts of Burnside and Yates, according to private polling.
Yes, a swing against, but nothing like that reported by the Guardian and other media a few weeks ago and current chatter.
“Nice way to stereotype a whole bunch of people you don’t know.”
As opposed to you slackboy?
FYI, I’ve been around elite athletes for the last 35 years. I know their type pretty darn well.
Of course, the news reports that this whole process was driven by Castor’s immediate and bitter peers and their coaches and other fluffers could just be piss and wind. ….
Could I interest you in a bridge with harbour views Slackboy?
Electric trucks, effectively trams with pneumatic tyres. It would be very resource heavy to put in place and I wonder how long the saving made by the trucks being electric would take to off set these resources.
Cud Chewer @ #982 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 8:10 pm
Agreed. I tried some dummy 0 and 100 values to make sure the calcs were working and the numbers responded as expected, so it’s probably just an unusual data set. Someone asked if it could be herding. Maybe we’re just tightening, something.
Rocket @7:53. It would actually be OK to use Roman numerals or write ‘one’, ‘two’, etc, according to the AEC’s Scrutineers Instructions: https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/candidates/files/scrutineers-handbook.pdf#page26 (see p. 33).
I don’t see any ads unless I’m watching Sky News, and they are all Clive ads.
I’ve only seen Labor ads on Youtube. Haven’t seen a Liberal ad yet.
itsthevibe @ #720 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 6:13 pm
Jim Molan isn’t going to win re-election. For a start his messaging has Liberal voters giving an informal vote in the Senate.
The reason that Jason ball is described by media as an AFL footballer is because lazy and dumb journalists assumed he was Jason Ball the former West Coast player and labelled him as such.
OC: ” the last [ex-footballer] Labor politician I can remember was Mike Cleary in the 70s.” Yes, OC, and even then there was a story going round that one of the other Labor guys had to constantly coach him and remind him which side he was on. At least at first – he ended up sounding like quite a genuine Labor man.
ICanCU,
Greens have no dignity, you are just as contemptible as the other parties.