The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.
Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.
Latest calling of the horse race:
• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.
• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.
• Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.
• The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.
• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.
• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.
Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.
ltep @ #146 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:56 am
I do too. I’d love to know what the betting markets are saying about Warringah – could be worth a wager.
It’s Shorten’s team in the cartoon – that’s why he’s not in it I presume.
Oh, and Pyne has been wheeled out to campaign in his old seat. I think they’re very nervous.
I do too. I’d love to know what the betting markets are saying about Warringah – could be worth a wager.
$1.88 $1.88
dead even
Desperate measures, I lurk and don’t normally post but had to share this one, came through on FB messenger…..
Labor, the Greens & Unions also have signed an agreement to introduce a 40% inheritance tax.Everything you own cannot go to your kids or next of kin at death 40% goes to the govt.Please share this with all your friends.
https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/21149/
All very interesting, fake website that’s will fool a lot of people. Surely this kind on thing cant be legal, telling such lies and advertising it.
Unfortunately this came from a friend in Gilmore for resident of the Shire.
ltep: “The thing I find unbelievable about Tingles story is “fears Abbott is gone”.”
I tend to agree. I have said all along that I believe that, while a substantial number of Warringah voters appear to think it’s time for Abbott to move on, they aren’t going to vote him out if they think this will contribute in any way to a Labor victory. And I don’t think that anyone can say right now beyond reasonable doubt that one or the other side is certain to have a majority of more than a few seats. So I expect Tone will end up hanging on by his fingernails.
The reality is that if Abbott’s primary is in the low 40s, the preference flows against him will be brutal … he probably is in deep trouble.
pithicus:
Thanks!
Sohar @ #33 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:23 am
Galaxy does the poll for YouGov don’t they? Galaxy has some good form as a pollster I believe.
One more comment about Sturt, it’s an electorate where franking credits are a big issue, but also where climate change is a big issue. The retirees are generally ex professionals and well educated, and the ones I know very concerned about their kids and grandkids on CC – but pissed off at what they perceive to be an unfair changing of super rules.
Good Morning
Tick Tock Tick Tock
7 days to go and the LNP are resigned to defeat.
The published polls are all pointing one way. A swing to Labor.
It doesn’t matter if you listen to Amy or Laura. The argument is how much they are Labor going to win by?
Oil exploration and drilling in the Bight.
The next Adani?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/05/10/great-australian-bight-letter/
Interesting to see if this gets attention in the election – it already is getting some in SA and has been bubbling for a while.
A little while ago Possum was saying that the private party polling is actually much better resourced (and therefore more accurate). than media commissioned polls.
The latter are done to a budget to get a publishable result. For the parties their internal polls have existential significance.
Confessions @ #142 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 9:54 am
Exactly. I asked myself the same. Best guesses so far:
1) This is a practice drawing of the new cast, and drawing Shorten doesn’t need practice. (Rowe predicts a Labor government.)
2) This is a not so subtle comment about teams.
Anyone know where moderate Liberal voters unhappy with the Coalition are likely to put their lower house votes if they dont have a high profile independent in their seat? I dont see a large chunk of them going for Labor, Greens or some of the far right parties etc.
Will they go for Palmer? Sustainable Australia? I cant seem to make head/tail of it.
According to Melissa Fyfe the ‘current’ Bill Shorten is unrecognisable from his previous incarnation:
Ten years ago, when I was reporting on Victorian politics for The Sunday Age, Bill Shorten had just left for Canberra, but his presence was still felt on Spring Street. In any factional deal or preselection, everyone knew “What Bill Wants”. As a ruthless factional leader, he was a master puppeteer, marshalling numbers, swapping favours, plotting against enemies (in his own party, mostly), always one step removed from the public eye. Some of his best friends, such as notorious mucksheet blogger Andrew Landeryou were, frankly, not the nicest people…. I barely recognise this Bill.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shortening-the-odds-the-woman-humanising-bill-s-bid-for-the-lodge-20190507-p51kx3.html
I think you saw a lot of “moderate” liberals in VIC vote Labor.
It’ll vary, seat by seat, state by state. But I could see Labor, Green and Indies benefitting.
IoM
From my chats with friends and family, some of whom would normally vote Liberal, they intend on voting Labor or the Greens this time around. They are sick of the sniping from the right of the party
pithicus @ #147 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 9:57 am
That usually means they know there is some information out there but they don’t have it themselves. Or that they’ve layed a big amount of bets in a short space of time. Or both.
Something’s up which I can’t see as being good news for Abbott or Dutton.
IoM @ #162 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 10:10 am
My uninformed hunch is that that’s the attraction of Palmer to Morrison, why he did the deal. The sufficiently disaffected LNP voter will vote [1] Palmer and [2] LNP, thereby returning/preserving their vote. Katter may play a role in FNQ. But Palmer has (had?) 151 seats covered.
ajm: “A little while ago Possum was saying that the private party polling is actually much better resourced (and therefore more accurate). than media commissioned polls. The latter are done to a budget to get a publishable result. For the parties their internal polls have existential significance.”
My understanding is that a lot of party-commissioned polling – not to mention focus group testing – is not so much directed towards a Newspoll-style assessment of who wins/who loses, but is a form of market research analysing which political messages get more traction in which regions and with which demographics.
I’d love to see Labor’s current market research. Yesterday, the party leadership decided to double down on the “top end of town” rhetoric, with Chris Bowen even making use of the usually verboten word “class”. Labor must have evidence that this sort of stuff is going down well with some key groups of voters: something I find quite surprising, but these market researchers definitely know their stuff.
Confessions
Where is the Labor last mob getting this from?
Sir Mark Textor… chief dissembler
slackboy72 says:
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 10:15 am
It may be insightful to look at any movement in the individual seat markets.
Political Nightwatchman
The message to Labor winning 11 seats at the last election with Greens preferences is clear.
Green policies are going to be more important not less this time around.
So yes hate it as you might those preferences tell you Labor needs to step up its game on the environment. That means coal unions have to tell their workers you will get help from Labor to find other work. Coal is dead.
Paul Keating was very clear on this.
Bill Shorten has been too.
They recognise why they are getting those Green Preference flows.
Labor gains more than it loses by working with the Greens in appealing to voters. That’s the reality.
“aren’t going to vote him out if they think this will contribute in any way to a Labor victory” – Could be some voters perception but neutered as Steggall has pledged support for a coalition minority government if necessary.
I know zali steggall said she would back the libs in a hung parliament, she has to say that now, being in warringah.
I have doubts. She is concerned about the environment for starters.
Septic says:
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 10:18 am
The bible.
No – they also definitely do A LOT of horse race polling. But what they also do is tracking polling to get a sense of movement/momentum versus what stand alone polling does.
lol to the idea of “coal unions” telling their members to be happy to be out of a job.
“Patrick Bateman says:
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 9:59 am
Oh, and Pyne has been wheeled out to campaign in his old seat. I think they’re very nervous.”
I believe that Sturt is vulnerable. Not likely, but possible.
Sturt used to be my electorate. Pyne had a large personal vote and he often only squeaked in.
MB
I suspect Internal party research is telling Labor the same basic fundamentals as public results.
Essential and Vote Compass are invaluable in this space.
Plus it’s long term results particularly with Essential.
The Greens Political Party like any other political Party does not decide or allocate any preferences.
Only the individual voter has this power.
Itep
No one said they would be happy. What they don’t need is being lied to.
Anyway It’s crossed my mind what chance Steggall joining the Libs if the hard right lose their grip on the party in a post election “restructure”.
Barney
Which is why I said it’s clear Green policies are getting that Green Primary vote.
One ABC journo, Jane Norman, has yet to drink the KoolAid…
The 4th week of the campaign has been defined by a defensive vs offensive game…
Scott Morrison has been almost exclusively sandbagging LNP held seats (some on healthy margins) while Bill Shorten’s spent all of his time in LNP territory, in seats Labor’s trying to take #auspol
Terminator, and some of the other “independents” as well.
Barney in Saigon @ #169 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 10:19 am
Well both are still open Dutton is $2.30 while Abbott is $1.90.
That doesn’t explain why the market has been suspended. I suspect they’ve received more money than they care to lay in a short space of time which would ring alarm bells.
Sounds like there is a lot of turd polishing going on by Scott Morrison on the state of play at the moment, ably supported by his cheer squad at The Australian. I suspect that the article by Laura Tingle was based on comments from some Liberal identity who is just not buying the bullshit.
Let’s face it Morrison has lied about everything else, so why wouldn’t he lie about this? With his launch coming up tomorrow he has to try and rally the troops somehow.
PvO says the likeliest outcome next Saturday is a narrow Labor win or Labor minority govt.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/the-worst-possible-election-outcome-awaits/news-story/34d9f37e5eddc8441fdece512f951f80?from=htc_rss&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_source=TheAustralian
He says this means the coalition will not go through the difficult soul searching needed in the wake of serious election loss.
guytaur says:
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 10:27 am
I always love your absolute clarity and certainty.
With so many different factors in play, you always seem to be able to reduce it down to the one element that trumps all the others.
A rare talent! 🙂
Bill Shorten campaigning in Kooyong!!
Surely (??) just psychological warfare
I am surprised that the Qld government’s barrier to Adani has not got more publicity nationally.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/adani-mine-environment-approval-black-throated-finch/11075824
Perhaps it has in Queensland.
Funny, this is exactly the Bill I heard about twenty years ago, and the one I’ve kept telling people on here about. Everyone I met in Victorian Labor (regardless of faction), the union movement and the bosses who’d negotiated with him talked of him with respect, as someone they knew they could work with.
Nath
Shorten is a master puppeteer. You don’t get this far being a naive fool.
How do you think Morrison manager to wrangle himself into being PM. It wasn’t a fluke
Jane Norman seems to be the only one actually watching what’s happening.
guytaur says:
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 10:07 am
Good Morning
Tick Tock Tick Tock
7 days to go and the LNP are resigned to defeat.
The published polls are all pointing one way. A swing to Labor.
It doesn’t matter if you listen to Amy or Laura. The argument is how much they are Labor going to win by?
The supposition that this election is all over bar the shouting is mistaken. The anti-Labor chorus is in full voice, lying and lying about their nemesis. The election will be very close. It will be decided by just a few votes in a few seats.
The worst government in Australian history could be returned. Make no mistake.
…of course, if you’re a Victorian journo who channels everything you see and hear through the “factions are evil” filter, which of course means ‘faction leaders are even eviller’, that’s understandable.
Regarding that PvO quote, what is “an ugly Labor win”? Why is it “ugly” rather than “narrow” or “weak” or some other denigration?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/05/10/archibald-prize-lindy-lee/
Gorgeous painting