YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 3 of 19
1 2 3 4 19
  1. No surprises that greens supporters buy into the “class warfare” narrative when Labor tries to tackle tax avoidance of the wealthy and income inequality

  2. Where is the Labor last mob getting this from? What policies of federal Labor’s are they basing their claims on?

  3. Regarding this from an SMH article by Eryk Bagshaw this morning:

    “But it will also see 3 per cent of retirees on $37,000 a year lose $1593 in annual income due to a policy that will eliminate tax refunds on franking credits for retired shareholders that have not paid tax.

    Using the most recent available tax data, research by Elizabeth Savage at the University of Technology shows 15 per cent of people who receive franking credits refunds on taxable incomes under $40,000 will lose an average refund of $102.

    But the largest hit will be to the less than 0.1 per cent of people who have credits in excess of $40,000.

    Professor Savage finds their average cash refund is almost $63,000, or $1200 a week, despite being on an average taxable income of $17,735 – below the threshold required to pay any tax at all.

    They have an average superannuation balance of $1,344,782 and have structured their affairs to hold millions of dollars in shares outside of that, while not earning income.

    “There are some people like that 15 per cent who will lose a little bit, but really it is about getting the very big payouts,” she said. “It’s quite well targeted.””

    ________

    This got me thinking about negotiation pathways for Labor in the senate. Perhaps a cap – maybe even as low as $5,000 in franking credit cashbacks for share portfolios of less than $100,000 would be enough to get cross bench support and keep the vast majority of the targeted budget saves.

  4. Just going from memory but I’m pretty sure the Labor state governments in Queensland, Victoria and WA are all running surpluses at the moment while improving services.

    I suspect a lot of the current Federal government’s spending has been pretty wasteful and curbing that will be another source of cash – just think of the money that can be saved in Home Affairs with a policy that actually resettles refugees rather than demonising them.

    I also seem to remember that Swan and Wong also pared large amounts out of Federal expenditure when they were desperately seeking a surplus with revenue falling (to the extent that the faithful were complaining about it) so that skill set definitely exists in Labor.

    Finally, spending on infrastructure is on capital account and so does not contribute to the surplus or deficit as reported, so that leaves an avenue for stimulus to be applied to the economy as necessary.

    The Kouk has been regularly reporting on the Treasury raising very large amounts of long term debt at very low interest rates that are available at present. I doubt all this has gone into capital account spending and is probably sitting in shorter term investments ready to be used if necessary.

    In summary, I think Labor has pretty well got all the bases covered and will be able to manage all but the most catastrophic international downturns if they eventuate. If the international scene turns out to be more benign than some are projecting, Labor will be “sitting pretty” in financial terms.

  5. Paul Bongiorno wrote:
    “Their most high-profile and credible woman, Julie Bishop, has quit.”
    Not only that but their next most credible woman (Julia Banks) also quit.
    There are none left.

  6. Meanwhile Trump continues with his Cray Cray, picking on China re Tariffs and threatening Iran with an incursion.
    It wont turn out well for anyone. Sigh……….

  7. https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6035257388001

    Energy Minister under pressure over undeclared business interests
    11/05/2019|2min

    EXCLUSIVE: Energy Minister Angus Taylor has again attracted scrutiny over previous business interests, after failing to declare his stake in a business he co-founded.

    Sky News can reveal Mr Taylor failed to properly declare he was a director and 50 per cent shareholder of JRAT International Pty Ltd on the parliamentary register.

    The Energy Minister neglected to register his interests for two years while he was in office until September 2015, when he resigned as a director and transferred his stakes.

    Mr Taylor admits JRAT was not one of the companies he declared, conceding that it ‘should have been’, but has argued that since the company conducted no business during the two year period he was in parliament, it presented ‘no possible conflict of interest’.

  8. As a person who has been working on prepoll HTVs this election and also last election, my very strong impression is that there are a lot more young people voting this time Last election a large proportion were old and frail and delivered by relatives. They are still coming but a lot of youngish people actually walking in as well.

  9. Apparently they have documents that Taylor was a 50% owner/director in a company during 14/15 that he didn’t declare. He reckons the company was not trading during that time and that is why he ‘forgot’.

    I don’t know how meaningful it is but is another niggle that has got media attention (I was just surprised it was SKY).

  10. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-11/dubious-environmental-group-infiltrates-stop-adani-movement/11100594

    Dubious environmental group Gatekeepers of Our Reef ‘infiltrates’ Stop Adani movement
    Exclusive by Josh Robertson
    Updated 38 minutes ago

    A mysterious environmental group fronted by dubious online identities — including one endorsed by a former Liberal party staffer — has spent more than a year trying to forge ties with the Adani protest movement while urging activists to target Clive Palmer.

    The Gatekeepers of Our Reef group is run by people who carefully hid their tracks while approaching Stop Adani organisers, who say they sought information on protest tactics while mounting a strange campaign against Mr Palmer.

  11. jenauthor

    Thanks. I was thinking they may have had the opportunity to ask Angus Taylor more questions re watergate.

  12. AE: “This got me thinking about negotiation pathways for Labor in the senate. Perhaps a cap – maybe even as low as $5,000 in franking credit cashbacks for share portfolios of less than $100,000 would be enough to get cross bench support and keep the vast majority of the targeted budget saves.”

    As you and I have discussed on here before, a cap – plus grandfathering (ie, limiting the credit to existing shareholdings at the date on which the measure comes into effect) – would seem to be an approach that could be sold to some cross bench Senators, eg: the Centre Alliance.

    I think trying to put any limits based on the value of total shareholdings would be administratively tricky. It’s easier just to put a limit on the amount of credit payable per annum claimed which would apply to all shareholdings of whatever size. A limit of $5,000 seems reasonable. It’s preferable to an approach based on whether or not someone is a part-pensioner, which will create a very large effective marginal tax rate for someone whose income is just beyond the upper limit to receive part pension.

  13. sprocket_ @ #101 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 9:02 am

    The LNP astroturfing fronts are getting desperate…

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    IF LABOR WINS, IT WILL BE A PUBLIC HEALTH DISASTER. ALL OUR BUSY OVERCROWDED PUBLIC HOSPITALS WOULD BE FORCED TO PROVIDE ABORTIONS.

    Labor has promised that if it wins the federal election, it will fix the “patchwork” of abortion laws across the states and territories by forcing the states to remove all restraints on abortion, as well as compelling public hospitals to provide abortions for free (references below). Also threatening to withhold up to billions of dollars in health funding for states which do not comply (references below under “For Real?”).

    Apparently the patients from “One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest” are on the loose again.

    If an aged Jack Nickolson look alike is spotted – be alert but not alarmed and do not approach – phone your nearest Ratbag Protection Agency immediately. 😵

  14. Mr Taylor admits JRAT was not one of the companies he declared, conceding that it ‘should have been’, but has argued that since the company conducted no business during the two year period he was in parliament, it presented ‘no possible conflict of interest’.

    Spectacularly missing the point.

  15. I’m not overly concerned at the outcome for two reasons.
    Firstly we are seeing an unprecedented level of pre-polling which is indicative of a large number of people wanting to get it over and done with.
    Early voting doesn’t happen to stop oppositions getting in. If the electorate wants to keep the incumbent then they simply vote on the day & numbers are down.
    I suspect a lot of SSM registered voters want to get it over and done with and I think this explains the unusually higher percentages.
    Secondly, I live in Longman, I’m hard put to see any corflutes or other materials around the electorate, including lot lower volumes of junk mail. Those I do see are primarily Labor with a few LNP here and there. I’ve seen the roadside vans but again, lots of Susan Lamb and only a few LNP, and the LNP volunteers are die hards, they look old enough to have baked scones for Joe in the 70’s & Menzies in the 50’s.
    The Libs have effectively conceded Longman, if they’ve done that to what is a traditional marginal then even they are only looking to the furniture. Even then I think they are finding a lot less furniture can be saved than they first thought.
    One Nation is also largely abscent this election, a large fence poster at Elimbah and the occasional corflute but that’s all.

  16. Yep, the ABC is finished. I’d like to see SBS Viceland take it over.

    Tina Kulski@KulskiTina
    Replying to
    @ItsBouquet
    I’m speechless…#theirABC wtf equating several hours in hospital under observation with the loss of a limb. Who is the journalist?

  17. “For those “knocking” the Greens – they are totally supporting the ALP up here in Queensland”

    Alot of Greens votes are because they peeled it off Labors primary. The Greens would alienate there support base if they prefernced the Liberals. For it to be inferred the Greens are saving seats for Labor is utter nonsense.

  18. Wasn’t it a record early vote in Victoria too and that wasn’t because people wanted to get rid of the state government. Nor in New South Wales.

  19. I also doubt conclusions can be drawn that people voting early want to turf the govt. I think it’s just an increasing trend resulting from people taking advantage of conveniences in life.

  20. Itep

    I can tell you from people around me, who all happen to be Labor supporters. They are either being asked by their employers to early vote, to free them up for their shifts on that day. Or they want to get it done, because they already know who they are going to vote for.

  21. The Lib-Libs have policies that hasten the decline of our society and ecosystems.

    The Lab-Libs have policies to manage the decline – not to reverse it. Not to put us on an upward trajectory. They lack the vigour and the macroeconomic literacy to take that path.

    The Lab-Libs are no friends of working class people. They are rank traitors to the working class. The Lab-Libs are a factory that manufactures sinecures for a select few. The Lab-Libs do not have a coherent and economically literate agenda for redistributing income away from profits and towards wages.

  22. Smaug @ #121 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 9:29 am

    I’m not overly concerned at the outcome for two reasons.
    Firstly we are seeing an unprecedented level of pre-polling which is indicative of a large number of people wanting to get it over and done with.
    Early voting doesn’t happen to stop oppositions getting in. If the electorate wants to keep the incumbent then they simply vote on the day & numbers are down.
    I suspect a lot of SSM registered voters want to get it over and done with and I think this explains the unusually higher percentages.
    Secondly, I live in Longman, I’m hard put to see any corflutes or other materials around the electorate, including lot lower volumes of junk mail. Those I do see are primarily Labor with a few LNP here and there. I’ve seen the roadside vans but again, lots of Susan Lamb and only a few LNP, and the LNP volunteers are die hards, they look old enough to have baked scones for Joe in the 70’s & Menzies in the 50’s.
    The Libs have effectively conceded Longman, if they’ve done that to what is a traditional marginal then even they are only looking to the furniture. Even then I think they are finding a lot less furniture can be saved than they first thought.
    One Nation is also largely abscent this election, a large fence poster at Elimbah and the occasional corflute but that’s all.

    Similar in Griffith. Despite the margin to Labor only being 1.6% (from memory) and if anything a gentrifying demographic, the Liberal Campaign appears to be very lightweight and their candidate is pretty ordinary. Of course Terri Butler has been pretty high profile.

  23. Good Morning all, and thank you BK as ever for your curated news this morning.

    Questions again. 🤷
    This image seems to be missing an important person.

    Was there any context? Maybe Rowe is just practising for a new cast and he’s already got the missing bloke figured out.

  24. I’m not bagging Amy Remeikis: I just don’t see why her ‘feelpinion’ is worth that much – as William said, it’s just horse-race calling. Meanwhile, even The Australian purports to get its info from insiders who’ve seen internal polling.

  25. Police officer: “You drove straight through a red light sir.”

    Angus Taylor: “Yes, but there was no traffic on the road!”

  26. Victoria: “Good grief Paul Kelly says Labor is ready to govern!”

    Ok, that seals it for me. I’m voting Liberal 🙂

  27. One thing to note… we’re not hearing ANYTHING from Labor “insiders” – that feels pretty telling to me.

    Even at this point in 2016 there were some “info” creeping out for expectations management… this time, nothing.


  28. I must be stuck in a rut this morning. Now I’m asking myself is it significant who are on the left and who are on the right of the centre fold?

  29. The lack of seat polling is telling. The rare seat polls released seem to be ones where the lnp are competitive.
    Hopefully this is because he lnp are doing badly in most marginals. [my guess]
    Or the betting agencies are in cahoots with the pollsters.

  30. Curious on Sportsbet right now.

    “Both Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton fail to get elected at the Federal Election” has no price but the entry “SUS”.

    Does this mean betting is suspended? If so, why?

    Odds on Warringah and Dickson are still showing as normal.

  31. It remains the case that the Libs are putting a lot of resources into Sturt, on a 5% margin. It’s being run by them like a tight marginal normally would. Numerous letter drops, thousands of corflutes, big billboards, loads of paid Facebook posts.

  32. “Both Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton fail to get elected at the Federal Election” has no price but the entry “SUS”.

    laura tingle spooked em.

  33. Smaug: “Early voting doesn’t happen to stop oppositions getting in. If the electorate wants to keep the incumbent then they simply vote on the day & numbers are down.”

    Until I see convincing evidence to the contrary, I am assuming that almost all early voting is driven by the personal convenience of the voter, and the early vote would therefore include high proportions of rusted-on voters from both sides, and also a significant number of swinging voters as well. The conventional wisdom is that, for a number of reasons, early voters are likely on average to be slightly better off than people who vote on the day, and that this will equate to a marginally higher early vote for the Coalition and the Greens.

    It might also be reasonable to conclude that a greater than usual number of early votes could indicate a higher than normal level of interest in the election. However, the proportion of early voters has been growing steadily election by election, so I don’t think we’ve got a long enough data series yet to know what the “usual” number of early votes would be.

Comments Page 3 of 19
1 2 3 4 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *