The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.
Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.
Latest calling of the horse race:
• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.
• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.
• Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.
• The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.
• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.
• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.
Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.
Sgh1969 @ #42 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:43 am
In the case of this years winner I think that the beauty was in the eye of the beer holder.
Oh, dear.
Grime
Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:45 am
Comment #44
Reading the comments in The Australian or the other s**t sheets is the pathway to madness. I occasionally have a look at some of the efforts.
We, collectively, have gone from consciousness raising
to
Stupidity is the new normal.
The real question is – why was Mr. Kelly writing a screed that seems to hang together in a real world sense ❓
Coffee for two ❓ ☕☕ Sorry make that three or maybe four – Douglas and Milko and OH ☕☕
Sohar
Too many State school riff raff sneaking into Oxbridge? The horror.
Are the polls at all taking into account the increased enrolment for this election (particularly among young people) or would the sampling and weighting still be based on older enrolment figures?
poroti @ #54 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:10 am
Bill Shorten has questions to answer.
Want to know more about minor parties on Rep or Senate ballot papers?
The Guardian gives some guidance
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/10/australian-election-2019-full-list-of-micro-parties-standing-in-the-senate
I think the Australian Article that Libs think they can pick up 4-5 seats including seats like Dobell are purely a rallying call for demoralised troop soldiers not to desert.
I remember Kroger claiming a few days out from Vic election that they were certainties on the Frankston line seats and even Daniel Andrews seat was on the radar. We know how that one turned out.
Inspired by the Bludger who checked out comments on P Kelly’s article I had a look at Pies Akerman’s blog comment section. Near the top was this LOL , fancy there being a lack of lefties hanging out on Pies’ blog 😆
Poroti,
“Too many State school riff raff sneaking into Oxbridge?”
I imagine a similar headline in the Australian can’t be far off.
Daily ToiletPaper front page Option 1
Thanks for that, Grime. I think. 😀
Two things jumped out at me:
1. All the commenters have absolutely scrubbed from their minds the way that Labor superbly handled the GFC. If that’s not ‘economic management’, I don’t know what is!?!
2. They’ve drunk the Blue Kool Aid of ‘what’s Labor’s Climate Change policy going to cost!?! When it’s just the NEG, which they would have supported if the Coalition had gone ahead with it, plus a couple of embellishments.
Also, I loved this comment:
Labor has an appalling economic record and couldn’t spell the word surplus little own manage one.
Guy going on about spelling, doesn’t know it’s ‘let alone’, not ‘little own’. 😆
poroti @ #60 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:14 am
HaHaHaHa That made me laugh.Classic!
Daily ToiletPaper front page Option 2
Music to my ears;
“On the ground around the country, Coalition assessments have turned much blacker in the past week: Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-11/federal-election-2019-shorten-finds-feet-morrison-panics/11102786
The Daily ToiletPaper only has 7 more front pages to go to drop the alleged bucket of slanderous libel on Bill Shorten – squibbed it today
C@tmomma @ #62 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:18 am
I think what strikes me the most is that these posters are single minded and as one…
Imagine if they had the keys to the country and got to make decisions about the rest of us along the lines of Who deserves to live or die.
Sportsbet has
ALP 1.14
LNP 5.50
The Murdoch journos will be able to fill their boots, quintuple their money and give Rupert the middle finger. For example, Judith Sloan on her $350,000 cant see Scotty not winning, so:
$350,000 @ 5.50 = $1,925,000
See ya later, Rupes
Sohar
Well we already have nath concerned about riff raff like Shorten getting into Xavier 😆
And the AFR can smell the carcass swinging in the breeze that is Scotty and his Muppet Show, and gives some useful advice for the tax minimisers as to what to shift their franking credit rorts to
Grime,
The tenor of the comments suggests they would rather let people die if they are unable to help themselves and provide for themselves. I just can’t abide that attitude in a country as rich as Australia.
Morning all.
That ABC report on Dutton’s departure from the police force raises one question for me: why are we hearing about this now, when he’s been in parliament for nearly 20 years?
Last time around the Coalition and the bulk of the media (given that almost every outlet outside News was sycophantic to Turnbull) went very hard in the final week or two with messaging that the Coalition was in the lead and the only party that could deliver a majority government. This turned out to be bollocks of course.
My judgment of Liberal and News messaging now is they are trying to avoid being on the other end of that sort of thinking. They want voters to keep thinking of them as competitive and not turn off to their messaging or switch votes for the sake of majority government.
(The idea that parties want to be considered the underdog in Federal politics is now dead, dead, dead).
I’m very suspicious of all this malarkey allegedly but not openly based on internal seat polling. Internal seat polling is unlikely to be any better than the public stuff, and partisan claims made without even disclosing the poll are worse than useless.
These insiders didn’t pick up the swing in Tasmanian seats last time; or the huge swing across swathes of Melbourne in the Vic state election; they always seem to be purely chatter about seats everybody knows are close and could conceivably go either way. Which leads me to believe there is not much factual information involved.
Grime @7:45.
Sweet is the sound of the Piggies squealing before slaughter, sweeter still will be their tears in just over a week.
If anyone want’s to ruin their day, search “qld police” in youtube.
Avoid driving a car up there if possible.
I am surprised the afr took so long to come out and explain how to minimise the impact of abolishing the cash refund of the franking credit.
One solution will cause conflict with many financial advisors. They should be advising their clients to move their money from their SMSF to an industry fund. This advice, if taken by their clients will destroy much of the advisor’s business.
The report of an anticipated 3% swing on 2PP to the ALP in Queensland should be considered in the light of where the majority of that swing may come from – Brisbane.
In Brisbane marginals the swing may well be 5% but there may be negative swing in some regional areas.
So these Brisbane seats are very much in contention for the ALP to win;
Forde
Petrie
Dickson
Bonner
Brisbane (on 6% but large number of younger voters)
Yes they could lose Herbert but these regional seats are also possible on the 3% swing:
Capricornia (Rockhampton)
Flynn (Gladstone)
Leichardt (Cairns)
Dawson (Mackay)
Watch Queensland carefully next Saturday.
For those “knocking” the Greens – they are totally supporting the ALP up here in Queensland- preferences may well be 85% to ALP in important seats because the Greens want to be rid of the toxic LNP just as much as we ALP supporters do.
Would love to see my seat Hinkler lost by Pitt (he of the Cashless Debit Card debacle) but 8.4% may be just too far.
Sohar @ #47 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:54 am
Yes, the ABC newsroom is beyond help.
Anyone would think that it’s the ALP thatv is planning to sell its sorry arse to the highest bidder.
BK You’ve done us proud this morning. Loved the cartoons.
A couple of the items got to me –
Rarely, or perhaps never, has one 148-word statement said so little and yet conveyed so much, not to mention highlighted so many hypocrisies for right to lifers and those on the ‘Trump’ side of the political spectrum. This is a cracker.
https://newmatilda.com/2019/05/10/the-cake-and-eat-it-too-abortion-tweet-that-has-stumped-the-right-to-lifers/
⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙
and also
And for your morning purgative Christine Forster has written a piece imploring Warringah to re-elect her brother Tony, “the greatest political campaigner of his generation”.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-chance-to-re-elect-the-greatest-political-campaigner-of-his-generation-20190510-p51lzb.html
Damn, that a hard one (Bishop to Actress). What possible answer would be correct ❓
⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙
This summary of the testimony from an 84 year old resident to the Aged Care Royal Commission really puts some perspective into the industry,
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-live-in-aged-care-but-it-s-not-home-an-insider-s-story-20190510-p51lym.html
Is well worth the little effort required to read it. The only comment I have is that it brought tears to my eyes.
A very good morning to everybody. 😎
I’m somewhat perplexed as to those that think the ALP will win a stack of seats in QLD. Even the current 51-49% appears far too significant in the favour of the ALP.
Let’s look at some QLD TPP facts:
1. Only three times in history has QLD ever returned a TPP greater than 50% – 1961, 2007, and 1990. Moreover, the ALP has only managed a TPP result greater than 49 on another four occasions being 69, 72,83, and 87.
2. If the two of the most popular ALP leaders in Hawke and Rudd could just manage a TPP over 50%, what chance does an unpopular Shorten have?
3. The net difference between the final national TPP and the ALP TPP in QLD has averaged 3.2% lower. There has only been four times it’s been higher, three times in the 1960’s and 1990. Even in 2007, it was 2.26% below the national TPP.
Depending on the final TPP, which I feel will be a figure closer to 50/50 or potentially 51/49 I would imagine that the QLD TPP will again be low, I would suggest around the 46/47%. Whilst the coalition primary vote is low, the issue in QLD will be votes going to minor right of centre parties and then flowing back to the coalition.
This election still has a 1998 potential where the ALP saw significant swings in their primary vote but in their safe seats. Granted that year the coalition were coming off a high seat count but the ALP primary vote (and the coalition for that fact) is appallingly low.
Labor have had the better week . The momentum is with them. Should win it from here.
The count will be fascinating to watch. If it seems tight early will prepolls make a difference late in the count or will it go the other way and blow the margins of defeat out even further.
On this Qld poll:
From the AEC
As of COB Friday approximately 1.93m people had cast their vote at an early voting centre for the 2019 federal election. Around 286k voted yesterday. #ausvotes #auspol
Prepolls tend to favour the Coalition so you’d not want it to be exceedingly close before they were added.
The pre-poll total represents 11.7% of total enrollment
Sohar
The Times looks like a tacky tabloid not unexpected from a Murdor publication
It sure isn’t the NYT or Washington Post
I expect the Wall Street Journal will feature scantily dressed stock traders soon.
If the primary vote of 38% is reflected on election day
2016 the LNP primary was 43.1%
8%+ swing against the LNP ,when you look at the Primary and 2pp
Confessions @ #73 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:31 am
Because he’s on the way out? 🙂
That Galaxy poll of Queensland … meh. Only 848 respondents – plus that gender breakdown looks a bit suss. And 51/49 would still see 5 Coalition seats falling on a uniform swing.
As for the horse-race calls, I’m much more inclined to believe Laura Tingle than The Australian.
Much as I love Amy Remeikis’ work on the live blog, I don’t see why what appears to her personal opinion about the state of play in Queensland carries much weight.
Itep – I don’t think such sweeping generalisations will apply at this election.
The big uncertainty for the coalition is the larger youth demographic – and they will likely (as anyone else) favour early voting because their lives are not as ruled by traditional behaviour as the premillennials (there’s my sweeping generalisation before you pull me up on it).
Young people believe more in having their life convenient to them, timewise/behaviourwise, and I personally think that many of these early votes are the younger brigade …
Perhaps those who man the booths can enlighten us on the demographics.
Divination by primary vote is the new dark arts.
Toby Esterhase @ #89 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:53 am
Remeikis is from Queensland and worked there for a number of years. I’d say her contacts and local knowledge give her views credibility.
We shall see jenauthor – people predict the prepolls might be different at every election.
Ausdavo
That’s great to hear about the Queensland greens. They seem to be better than the trotts in NSW and the opportunist tory-lites who’ve captured Victoria…..both of whom focus too much of Thier external attacks on labor
Thanks for the info GG, but it’s still just her personal opinion.
Ah, but Itep … this election IS different in terms of prepolling.
ausdavo says:
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 8:42 am
—————————-
I agree with much of your assessment. The Greens may deliver a surprise in the seat of Brisbane. They have a well known and well liked candidate and appear to be doing well at prepoll.
Toby
Amy Remeikis used to be a state political reporter in QLD? She has connections with the parties in QLD and has been dropping in little things about where the parties see seats as losses/gains in QLD in The Guardian’s election blog
Morning all
Yesterday I was told that the msm have held off with the story on Shorten for several reasons. One that it is highly defamatory and not proved beyond a reasonable doubt. And Shorten is a smart operator. Cos he has the goods on so many pollies including his own side.
It will be MAD apparently.
I report. You decide.