YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. That Courier Mail polling needs teasing out. If asked most people they would probably support Labor’s spending plans for health, education, childcare etc . Then comparing the 2 might be useful. Presenting slanted info is the hallmark of scoundrels.

  2. A lot of people have already voted.Obviously the vibe from that is Labor is going to win,otherwise the Coalition would have firmed further.

  3. victoria
    Wouldthat be the story that Bongiorno said Bill had dismissed as baseless? I wonder if he has put them on ntice with it.

    Grahame Morris said weeks ago that he has an ad he thinks should be shown this week that will destroy Bill and Labor. Said he would give it to Speers on Monday (just after5pm) so I’ll watch it.

    My hand has had enough typing so I’m orf to bed G’night Bludgers

    Happy Mother’s Day to all.

  4. Also on Bludgertrack – shows a big jump for Greens in SA from 7.4 to 12 in a week. Didn’t happen obviously in that way but I have to say Sarah Hanson-Young has been coming across very well in last couple of years on environment issues compared to previously on immigration etc.

    Concentrating on Climate Change and Renewables, MDB and Bight oil drilling has been well received. Big majorities of people in SA have been supporting renewables, demanding action on MDB and opposing oil drilling in Bight. Now John Hewson has issued a statement supporting SHY being reelected as a Senator – full page ad in today’s Advertiser based mainly on climate change. Pretty big story.

  5. Well – there’s next to no way the Green vote is going to be that high in SA.

    Not being shady or anti-Green but just suggesting to not invest too much in the state-level stuff.

  6. Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    Three things that have flown under the radar this election:

    One Nation imploding quietly for a change
    Dutton’s complete lack of a professional ground game in Dickson
    Crazy campaign resource allocation in Victoria, that got crazier by the week

  7. More early voting doesn’t show anything except that people like to organise their lives as conveniently as possible. And its not a big cost to AEC as they have only a few pre-poll centres compared to 18 May and can reduce staff on 18 May to suit less voters.

    No-one has produced significant evidence that higher pre-poll voting is benefiting Labor or LNP, governments or oppositions. Waste of time discussing until there is some evidence.

  8. Ross Leedham @ #823 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 10:40 pm

    Thanks for sharing my postals analysis sprocket.

    My couple comments on the Coalition postals campaign being down-they’ve clearly not run it in Longman, Lilley, and Griffith. And are obviously behind 2016 in a bunch of divisions where the ALP has run a campaign this time. There’s a still a few days left though and they’ve increased ~55K in the last four days.

    Questions/comments/feedback welcome-hopefully the tables are easy to use and copy/paste easily if you want to spin your own thing as well.

    One comment. I couldn’t work out how people were getting the information on political parties as all I saw was 4 columns (State, Division, Applications, Increase). No amount of sorting or clicking got me any other information, until I maximised the window on my PC. Perhaps some instructions or hint that there might be more information will help people who aren’t blessed with hints from kind fellow PB’ers.

    Otherwise. Hmm. Very interesting. Thanks!

  9. Victoria

    I heard that Frydenberg has done multiple mailouts to literally every person on the electoral roll. Like Rossmore I think it is not impossible for Jana Stewart to improve Labor’s vote from 20 to 25, and if the Greens improved theirs from 19 there is a remote chance Labor could win, but Frydenberg is rumoured to have spent one million dollars in his seat!

    Maybe the Liberals know something we don’t, or are desperately trying to make sure that he can be party leader in the event of a bad loss.

    It’s funny because from what I’ve seen in Chisholm, they have all but conceded.

  10. J341983 – you might be right but the positive publicity SHY has been getting on these big issues over the last couple of years and especially over last few weeks has been been pretty consistent. And 10% only brings SA somewhere in line with national figures. SA has been the lowest Greens vote for a number of years but maybe they are catching up.

  11. Pedant says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 10:27 pm

    Simon Katich @ 10.18

    Oddly enough, the capturing of postal vote applications by the parties is illegal at ACT elections.

    For the life of me, I don’t know why anyone would bother applying using a hardcopy form at a federal election: as I recently discovered, the online application system the AEC has put in place is first class, and you get an electronic confirmation when the application has been received, when the postal vote pack has been sent to you, and when your completed ballots have been received back by the AEC.
    ——————————-

    Yes. I went through that in the Wentworth by-election. Received confirmation from the AEC that the ballot had been sent. But it never arrived before polling day, or since. There’s not much you can do at that point. You are disenfranchised. At least I haven’t received a notice yet for failing to vote.

  12. Rocket rocket

    One million dollars! That’s a bit rich.

    Everything about this election campaign is counter intuitive.

    Anyhoo night all

  13. Spence

    The piece from William is noting sources that inform the journos – eg “However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.”

    Sources affect the quality of information and disposition politically affects the commentary. I think its a fair question to ask and would assist a lot in reading between the lines when one reads the news and commentary in the press. If I know that Peter Hartcher has a source inside PMC and that its high quality then I will read him differently. And surely you would concede that some journos favour one side or the other in their commentary.

    In any event has anyone done the exercise at pegging the press gallery on a spectrum and identifying sources. It seems William knows the latter at least.

  14. Thanks Late Riser, added a couple of extra comments-was unsure how obvious the required scroll is and that page has got a lot more views than I expected when I put it up.

  15. elecster – I’m all for rating journos on competence, reliability of “sources” etc. That’s good analysis and can help get rid of people who let bias show.

    Pegging the press gallery on a spectrum would have the effect of making life much more difficult for good journos who hold strong personal views. Bad enough that people higher up get to edit stories and fix headlines etc. And just encourage some pretty juvenile attacks on people who are doing a difficult job.

  16. Without the Xenophon factor in play this time, it is possible that the Green Senate vote might pop up a couple of percent in SA.

  17. elecstar – and by the way I don’t think journos should provide much in the way of commentary at all. Their job is to do good research, get to the facts and put Qs to the candidates and get answers. We can work out the rest. One of the reasons I was happy that the ABC got rid of the website where journos were writing opinion pieces.

  18. All Murdoch has done has cherry picked half good news for the Coalition on all the seat polling pretending their man is in the game.

  19. Will Higgins leave the Liberal fold? (spoiler – no new polling data since the 51-49 to Libs)

    Liberal sources said “the mood has turned” in the electorate over the last two months. They were also struck by how many early voters – particularly those in their late 30s and 40s – had made up their minds and respectfully told volunteers they liked Ms O’Dwyer and Dr Allen but could not vote Liberal, citing the party’s approach to women, climate change and the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull.

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-mood-has-turned-prized-seat-of-higgins-on-a-knife-edge-as-liberal-vote-heads-south-20190511-p51ma9.html

  20. I read all the assessments offered by NewsCorp and Amy R and all that at the head of the post and concluded it is a load of bull dust attempts to batton down the hatches and try to save some of the furniture.

    When Paul Kelly of the Australian writes in his Saturday feature that the Labor Party “are ready to govern”, you know its game over. That won’t stop the Daily Toilet Paper and Courier shouting pro Liberal propaganda at us for another week and Newscorp coming up with another trumped up Newspoll ahead of the election.

    I hold to my thoughts that Labor will come out with 81-85 seats; more likely at the lower end. Thank God/Allah, Buddha – whoever you like. No more smarmy Mr shouty face come Sunday week.

  21. This election will tell us how useful polling remains. I suspect the election ill proved to be the cause of considerable head shaking.

    Labor couldn’t have picked a worse person to go into the election with, but as he worked his way there through a decade of behind the scenes power-play he sidelined them all. So they are stuck with him. I also think, just like Howard, people will under estimate the unlikely attraction of Morrison, believe it or not. It isn’t that he has done a good job, but is a figurehead of ‘conservatism’, and resistance to change, be it an accurate reflection or not, hardly matters.

    The big risks for Labor will come in the Coalition attacks on the cost of their ideology on the individual’s purse, be it accurate or not, but those are the winning issues, when you have so many indebted to banks on housing and such, and they live in those electorates that bring about the change… The ABC and media can attack the incompetence of not of the Coalition members, it wont matter, if Libs get a clear and fearful message on people’s money out there then it is game over for Labor, regardless of current polls.
    It all comes down to the Libs abiity to get the right sort of financial message out there.
    Labor can try the same thing, but the effect will not be the same, as the incumbent govt is known.
    I think this election will come down to the wire, and that you may unexpectedly find a Coalition Govt again.
    Much to the hatred of many here.
    Just an opinion.

  22. Alright – for fear of being accused of being a delusional partisan…

    In what way are the campaign acting or allocating their resources in any way that suggests this is going to be as close as the commentators are suggesting?

    If suburban Brisbane was a chance for the LNP to hold on, there would be some semblance of a campaign organisation in Longman. The campaign is being fought, with a few exceptions (Nth Tas) almost entirely on the LNPs ground.

    If the retiree tax scare was really biting… why is there nothing happening in Eden Monaro?

    I remember after the 2016 US election when I felt something was wrong… I was excited and happy but also couldn’t throw my feeling that we were all missing something. So I’m now trusting my gut.

    Unlike that election – both sides here seem to be acting on the same kind of information…

    So – I don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m sticking with my predix of a 52-ish 2PP with Labor on about 82 seats.

    Tl;dr version – the commentariat is saying it’s close, but the campaigns aren’t acting like it.

  23. For those that don’t subscribe to Newscrap and generally can’t see articles for the paywall, The Weekly Times is in the Newscrap fold, reproduces SOME stories from other sites (e.g Australian, Sunday Mail etc…) and doesn’t have a paywall.

    https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/breaking-news

    I read an Article by Matthew Abraham from (SA’s) Sunday Mail on this site – and it was still Saturday. The article itself was pretty weak, suggesting Lib wins in Sturt and Boothby, and Centre Alliance winning in Mayo.

    He had no real evidence for the Boothby opinion, but indicated that there would be Boothby seat poll released on Monday (presumably in the ’tiser)

  24. briefly and grimace

    Was your double act reminiscent of Laurel and Hardy?

    Thanks for all your work out west. I will be fascinated to see how it plays out next week in WA.

    If either or both of you support the Eagles I can tell you they were pretty solid tonight, and the scoreboard probably flattered our Saints with West Coast kicking 1.8 in the last quarter I think.

  25. If Labor do not win Boothby this time they probably will never win it unless the boundaries change for it to favour them more.

  26. Peter Salk says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 12:25 am

    “Labor couldn’t have picked a worse person to go into the election with, but as he worked his way there through a decade of behind the scenes power-play he sidelined them all. ”

    Really??? The evidence for that much put about furphy is totally circumstantial. Indeed there is far more evidence that Morrison actually manipulated his way into the top job. However, it’s almost impossible to see any other person in the Labor Party since 2013 who could maintain the strong unity and sense of purpose coming out of disaster that Shorten did – whether or not Shorten was a player on the sidelines. He may be the least “popular” choice going into the election, but he has actually gotten them there, which is what matters.

    “The big risks for Labor will come in the Coalition attacks on the cost of their ideology on the individual’s purse, be it accurate or not, but those are the winning issues, when you have so many indebted to banks on housing and such, and they live in those electorates that bring about the change… The ABC and media can attack the incompetence of not of the Coalition members, it wont matter, if Libs get a clear and fearful message on people’s money out there then it is game over for Labor, regardless of current polls.”

    I’ve always maintained that people are first and foremost hanging out for a competent and united government, focussed on governing the country rather than infighting. For that reason alone I believe that the current government will lose. You may be right that sheer stupidity and financial fear, uncertainty and doubt (not backed by any rational analysis) will win the day. In which case I will have to revise my thinking or, more likely, lose interest in politics because this country will be fucked completely. I will have the consolation, though, that my personal financial situation will be better under a Liberal government (at least until they manage to fuck the country completely – which may not be long).

  27. @ Peter Salk

    The LNP need 6 years minimum in the sin bin for their woeful performance over Abbott-TUrnbull-Morrison years, and the punters know it.

    Australia wouldnt be able to look itself in the face if it returned these no-hopers. Its now a question of basic dignity. This is the worst government most voting Australians have ever seen, at Federal or state level.

    81 Seats, not close, results known by 730pm

  28. Lincoln says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:01 pm

    I think it would be delicious irony if the whole “death tax” thing on FB caused enough of a swing that the ALP lost the election… Why? Because the Mediscare thing is still the most evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous move ever by a political party.

    ———————————-

    OK Linc, give us some details. What specifically was “evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous” about the reference to Medicare by Labor and its supporters during the 2016 campaign. What exactly were the claims that would justify such extreme language on your part. And where were these statements wrong, exactly.

  29. Let’s face it, the Libs would privatise Medicare tomorrow if they could get away with it.
    Some “scare” campaign.

    That said, I agree: it just requires Shorten to name the death tax bollocks as a “desperate Liberal con job” and that should knock it on the head, and also reinforce the existing public perception of the LNP as little more than a watchhouse full of dodgy con-men awaiting sentence.

  30. Because the Mediscare thing is still the most evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous move ever by a political party.

    Ever?… I mean… the Nazis? No no no, sending unsolicited texts is much worse…

  31. Lincoln says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:44 pm

    Wow… I would like to throw some of you a bone and suggest that you are delusional but I fear that many of you are not.

    Instead, you know the lies you promulgate but are Macchiavellian about it. That is truly evil.

    Real bottom-dwelling types. The ALP revealed the true depth of depravity with that Mediscare campaign and no one here has given anything remotely like evidence because it doesn’t exist. All the sheer excuses and long bows offered here were precisely the same for Laborites post 2016 election. That none of you are prepared to admit the depravity now is evidence that you are morally bankrupt. Say the LNP is also bankrupt too… I don’t give a Flying… Pig. It also doesn’t change your culpability… just puts you in the same cess pit.

    What awful human beings….

    ——————————-

    Don’t hold back Linc. Tell us how you really feel!

  32. “Edi_Mahin says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 12:53 am
    If Labor do not win Boothby this time they probably will never win it unless the boundaries change for it to favour them more.”

    You may be correct. Time will tell.

    Labor’s Nadia Clancy does appear to be quite young – in fact she is in her early thirties.
    Perhaps this youthful look will work against her in this electorate?

  33. The corrupt right wing ‘whatever it takes’ LNP, looking at a shellacking in just one week, fearful that their disingenuous use of deceit and falsification is crumbling, will throw the ‘kitchen sink’ and any other nearby objects in an effort to gain traction in the remaining polls and thus having to endure the ignominy of being both turfed from the government benches and for being ‘found out’.
    The next few years will not be kind to certain politicians having strayed too far from an acceptable level of political conduct and their complicit engagement in personal wealth building.
    Truth in reporting legislation together with funding for a broad ranging ICAC should be the first matters of the new Shorten government.
    Commenting by both the MSM and social media has resembled a ‘drunken’ barrage of misinfomation and lies, adding to a sense of confusion and disbelief together with a desire to see an end to saturation bombardment of a disinfomation in various adverting mediums in what is an ugly political melee.
    The numbers say the result remains confused.

  34. I am now willing to save I am confident (with >80%) that Labor will form government.

    There has been a lot of noise on both social media and the MSM about how close it really is, how Rupert’s final scare campaign, yet to be unleashed, will change the polls by the 1.5% needed for the Coalition to be returned.

    I am just not seeing it now – not a 1.5% swing in the last week. .

    However, Paul Bongiorno in the Sat Paper, by letting us know that the Rupertariat was intending to run a highly defamatory smear campaign against Shorten in this final week, may have saved Australia from the worst effects of this smear campaign.

    But note the >80% confidence.


  35. Victoria says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 11:21 pm
    BH
    These stories were canvassed prior to last election.
    The defamatory story on Shorten that is currently on hold by the media, has not been hinted to in the article.

    I assume it has been war gamed for a full page defamatory article on the font page of the DT and the Australian next Friday.

    I suspect Murdoch will happily take a Liberal win a defamation case.

  36. Nostradamus @ #764 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    Just heard Shorten in an ad describing himself as a “dad of 3”.

    Shorten has ONE child, he is stepfather to his second wife Chloe’s two older children from her previous relationship. He has never formally adopted them.

    He is therefore a blatant LIAR!

    Politicians often lie, but few as flagrantly as that.

    I predict that this time next week his career will be OVER!!

    You are a scummy piece of shit. I like Bill Shorten am a stepfather and my son refers to me as Dad and I consider him my son. The act of planting sperm and fertilising an egg does not make one father, it is the love, nurturing, supporting, respect and honesty with your child that makes you a father. Ar$ehole

  37. Well, this is an interesting story out of the Warringah Liberal Pre Poll (as retailed by Peter FitzSimons, so I believe it AND he had it confirmed):

    Bruce Baird blow-up
    Meantime, in less happy news out of Warringah, there was quite the scene down at the pre-polling booth in Manly’s Darley Road on Wednesday afternoon. Enter, stage right, local resident and famed former NSW cabinet minister, and predecessor of Scott Morrison for the seat of Cook, Bruce Baird. Given a how-to-vote card by the local Lib volunteers, Mr Baird blew up – for the card directed voters to vote in the Senate for disaffected Liberal Jim Molan, despite the fact that the official cards from LNP Head Office have Senator Molan at the unwinnable No. 4 position. Since getting that rank Senator Molan, from the same hard right faction of the Libs as Tony Abbott, has run a campaign to have Liberal supporters vote for him “below the line”.

    To Baird’s eyes it looked like Senator Molan’s supporters had hijacked the official pamphlets to be promoting the No. 4 pick first, and he said so with some force, saying: “This is totally against Liberal party rules! No other party operates like this.”

    When I asked Bruce about it this week he confirmed the story and said: “This is disrespectful of those 60-plus party members who voted on the candidate rankings and is not what the Liberal Party does!”

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/sam-took-a-call-from-tony-abbott-while-in-class-20190510-p51m67.html

  38. Re election tipping:

    Labor to win, 76 seats.
    Coalition to lose, 70 seats.

    Specific seats: NSW – Coalition loses Gilmore, Robertson & Banks, regains Wentworth from IND, gains Lindsay from ALP. VIC – Coalition loses Corangamite, Dunkley & Chisholm, regains Indi from IND, Labor gains new seat (Fraser). QLD – Coalition loses Flynn, Forde and Petrie, gains Herbert and Longman from ALP. WA – Coalition loses Pearce. SA – no change. Tas – Coalition gains Lyons & Braddon. Territories – no change (Labor gains new ACT seat).

    For Senate – Labor to pick up 3 seats (NSW, VIC, SA); Coalition to pick up 1 (gain 1 in NSW & WA, lose 1 in SA); Greens to break even; ON to lose 2 seats (WA, NSW); LibDems out; Hinch out.

    And I wish to G-d that Bowen would stop promising higher surpluses than the Coalition’s (already overly-rosy) projected surpluses! With the global economy looking shaky beneath the surface, Australia may not be able to run a surplus at all – not without risking a mini-Depression. And every time Bowen says that he’ll deliver a bigger surplus, he gives the media more ammunition to use against Labor in Government!

  39. Torchbearer:

    Yes, I love the nonsense that (for certain tax refunds) YOU ARE THE COMPANY, so if a company goes bankrupt, are you still the company? Are you responsible for the company debts?

    A good distinction, so it should be:
    – L-type corporation: shareholders have liability by shares but no imputation (since they should in it for growth not income), or
    – U-type corporation: share holder have imputation but unlimited liability
    – Grouping: no imputation for any member of the group unless every member of the group is U-type
    – Changes of type: restricted to once every five years or something, integrated with grouping rules
    – Financial corporations: automatically U-type!!!!! (our resident ex-banker can stick that in his pipe an smoke it)
    – Consider introducing an I-type corporation with intermediate liability (defined somehow, perhaps for ALL debts excluding notes convertible to shares) and 50% imputation

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