YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. thank you BH and C@tmomma
    it is start of a new decade, hopefully not only for myself
    also first birthday for 45 years without my lifelong partner
    i will miss her unique annual cards and greetings – they always touched and resonated

  2. I’d love to see high speed rail get discussed here.

    Albo needs to figure out that his HSR Authority needs to toss the 2013 Study and go back to first principles.

    I notice the the Liberals’ betta-fasta-cheapa rail scheme has hardly gotten a mention. For $20 mill you’d expect it to get milked about now.

  3. hungry jack,
    Coincidentally, it would have been my late husband’s birthday yesterday. He has been gone 10 years now. The time has flown. However, his last piece of advice still resonates…don’t mourn me when I am gone, go on living your own life as happily as possible. 🙂

  4. C Ch
    A few years ago I saw some sort of link to a mob who were basically landbanking the preferred HSR routes. If I recall correctly they were not buying the land outright but putting some sort of options on the land. I can’t recall any of the real details… only that there must have been some details that I can’t recall.

  5. hungry jack:

    A bittersweet birthday for you, the ‘firsts’ are always hard.

    Here’s hoping you can cap your birthday with a Labor win the following day. 🙂

  6. Just heard Shorten in an ad describing himself as a “dad of 3”.

    Shorten has ONE child, he is stepfather to his second wife Chloe’s two older children from her previous relationship. He has never formally adopted them.

    He is therefore a blatant LIAR!

    Politicians often lie, but few as flagrantly as that.

    I predict that this time next week his career will be OVER!!

  7. @ C@tmomma – keep the good memories flowing. Sad to remember loses but always a delight to remember the wonderful times together.

    I’m sure he also had a great sense of a fair go.

  8. confessions

    yes sat could be a sweet foundation, one of several, for new life, for our country to, even for visions

    so much reform and change to be done, at least it can start

  9. Someone explain to me why high speed rail is such a drama for Australia? It makes perfect sense here. We have dense population centres separated by long distances of mostly flat land.

    And surely the tech is so mature now that it’s pretty much off the shelf from Japan, China or France?

  10. While we are waiting for the *gasp* DT drop on Bill Shorten, contemplate what Chris Uhlmann did Back in the day before he became a gun TV reporter..

  11. Nostradamus,

    He has never formally adopted them.

    My father, actually my stepfather, never formally adopted me. He is still my father though, more than my deadbeat biological father will ever be.

    So, can you kindly take your spiteful observation about Bill Shorten and shove it where the sun don’t shine? Thank you. 🙂

  12. Just heard Shorten in an ad describing himself as a “dad of 3”.

    Shorten has ONE child, he is stepfather to his second wife Chloe’s two older children from her previous relationship. He has never formally adopted them.

    He is therefore a blatant LIAR!

    Politicians often lie, but few as flagrantly as that.

    I predict that this time next week his career will be OVER!!

    If that kind of desperate nitpicking is all you’ve got, then you’re in deep trouble…

  13. We just had the good oil on the DT bombshell on Shorten from Nostradamus – the blighter considers his step children as his own!

    Unheard of!

  14. BW that would be Consolidated Land and Rail. Just google CLARA HSR

    They bought cheap options on a bunch of farm land with a view to building eight inland cities. I know them well.

    The present government ran a faster rail prospectus in 2017. $20 million to be shared by three winning consortia to develop a business case for a “fast” rail project. CLARA was one of the winners.

    The other two winners were a) Transport for NSW who decided to recycle an old scheme to make the train to Gosford a bit faster and b) an outfit called North Coast Connect run by the property developer Stockland with the aim to build a fast train line to Maroochydore thus benefiting said developer.

    The bottom line here is that $20 million got wasted. I will also note that whilst this supposedly a “free enterprise” idea, there was nothing in the rules stopping TfNSW (who could well afford to fund their own study) acting as a dog in the manger. None of these ideas have a viable business case.

  15. “Just heard Shorten in an ad describing himself as a “dad of 3”.

    Shorten has ONE child, he is stepfather to his second wife Chloe’s two older children from her previous relationship. He has never formally adopted them.

    He is therefore a blatant LIAR!

    Politicians often lie, but few as flagrantly as that.

    I predict that this time next week his career will be OVER!!”

    Oh noes, here comes the “Daddiscare” campaign!

  16. I think if the two older children consider Shorten their dad then that would be good enough for the vast majority of Aussies.

  17. Goodness the story the DT did other day was beyond stupid.

    But this isnt the story the DT are currently holding onto. It would be even more stupid than the last one.

  18. Bull Shorten previously said himself in an interview that his stepchildren had a father and that his role was help their mother raise them, not be a father replacement.

    The hypocrisy of the Left knows no bounds.

    I’m actually surprised why the Herald-Sun and the Daily Telegraph hasn’t been onto this.

    Luckily for Australia, God knows all about this and will arrange to the nation’s salvation accordingly.


  19. Nostradamus says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 9:25 pm

    Just heard Shorten in an ad describing himself as a “dad of 3”.

    Shorten has ONE child, he is stepfather to his second wife Chloe’s two older children from her previous relationship. He has never formally adopted them.

    He is therefore a blatant LIAR!

    Politicians often lie, but few as flagrantly as that.

    I predict that this time next week his career will be OVER!!

    As someone who had a step dad and who knows how much the step kids appreciate the step dad including them in his family; I actually find your post very offensive.

  20. well, I got all those birthdays wrong. Got 1 week ahead of myself altho so hope Bill has a good one tomorrow and He Whose Name Does Not Deserve a Mention Cos He’s a Rotten Lying Sod gets a lousy newspoll on Monday. Sorry William – I’m feeling my oats.

    Happy Birthday for tomorrow, Jen.

  21. Nostradamus @ #779 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:39 pm

    Bull Shorten previously said himself in an interview that his stepchildren had a father and that his role was help their mother raise them, not be a father replacement.

    The hypocrisy of the Left knows no bounds.

    I’m actually surprised why the Herald-Sun and the Daily Telegraph hasn’t been onto this.

    Luckily for Australia, God knows all about this and will arrange to the nation’s salvation accordingly.

    What I wanna know is, why haven’t that Labor last mob got onto this. Not only is Labor indifferent to the unborn children, but indifferent to the living children as well.

    #mayaswelleatthem

  22. C@t as I explained before. There’s differences between the type of tunneling they’ve been doing for motorways in Sydney and the kind of tunnel you’d need for HSR.

    When you build a road tunnel, its going to be span a large width, its going to be dug with a road header and lined with shotcrete. Plus there are sections that are going to be less than 30m below ground. And that’s a large ratio of tunnel width to rock depth.

    When you build a rail tunnel, its narrower, its bored with a TBM and its immediately lined with a segmental concrete lining. It creates only a fraction of the subsidence.

    Plus at Kariong you’re talking over 100m of rock above the tunnel. What effect will that have on the surface? Absolutely zilch.

  23. Part of me wishes that Nostradamus is actually signalling a real line of attack that the Coalition is going with because of how goofy it is but I know that, even if they were desperate (which I am not sure they are), the Coalition would not be silly enough to present such a tone-deaf, foot-shooting criticism as that one.

  24. John Little on Twitter is a classic bedwetter. He was tweeting the bugonline fake newspoll story a few weeks back. Best ignored.

  25. WayoutWest

    The Robodebt scandal has to be one of the most sadistic things an Australian Govt can spring on the vulnerable and yet it has mostly gone unreported. A few in the media have tried but the big media has failed with this.
    I’ve heard a few Labor and greens pollies bring it up but it goes nowhere. It needs a full investigation. Same with the NDIS.
    Imagine the difference if the media had hounded both as they did JG’s carbon tax.

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