The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.
Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.
Latest calling of the horse race:
• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.
• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.
• Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.
• The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.
• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.
• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.
Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.
This time next week we’ll have a new prime minister.
A real one.
Perhaps its the reduction of the time to maturity of the bet while the margin in recent polls hasn’t moved much?
yabba @ #696 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:14 pm
On colluding in plain sight. Giuliani has been forced to cancel his trip.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/11/us/politics/rudy-giuliani-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Ten good reasons to remove current government
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ten-good-reasons-why-the-lnp-has-to-go,12662
Mundo went to his own defence in a post yesterday,referring to itself as “his/her” in the third person, and then forgot to change his pseudonym from “mundo” to his alter ego.
I suspect it has been entertaining itself as “Lincoln” today.
I note it didn’t deny it.
I’m just glad you were on to it quick as a flash Fulvio. Well spotted sir.
Mundo went to his own defence in a post yesterday,referring to itself as “his/her” in the third person, and then forgot to change its pseudonym from “mundo” to its alter ego.
I suspect it has been entertaining itself as “Lincoln” today.
I note it didn’t deny it.
Confessions @ #674 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:58 pm
And I love how they have the Seminary that Tony Abbott trained at in the background of that photo. 🙂
Isle of Rocks @ #703 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:19 pm
No money changes hands until the result is declared, in either direction. In my case $360 odd will appear in my account when Betfair declares Lab or Coal are able to form government.
Yes, I’m sure you were.
Nothing escapes your razor sharp mind.
Mundo must be Angus Taylor
C@t:
Seriously? If so, obviously planned, but somewhat serendipitous nevertheless. 😀
#GoZali
Oh Fulvio you moron, I was referring to Ven.
I don’t know if ven is a him or a her.
Go read the post again cretin.
Oh, and I’m a soon to be 63 year old male.
And you are an irritating shit.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6113851/politicians-leave-voters-in-eden-monaro-frustrated-but-issues-still-resonate/?cs=14329
The last few lines should be music to progressive voters ears.
Minds made up long ago. Campaigning has had little impact.
It would be sad to lose mundo, all that dropping the strides, turn around once, turn around twice… doing the mundo Rock!
This version shot at a YoungLiberal branch meeting
https://youtu.be/p1Ju83DMaB8
“Are you now or have you ever been mundo?”
“This time next week we’ll have a new prime minister.”
At risk of being labelled a troll, if it’s as close as the polls are predicting, there will be no concession from Morrison next week. And wherever the Labor 2PP is at close of counting, postals will whittle away 0.5%.
Hopefully a concession a few days after the election, a new PM sworn in about a week later.
It was actually Ven whom Mundo was defending from all too typically moronic accusation of concern trolling.
Seriously, that’s some paranoid shit. Log off for a while.
THANK YOU WILLIAM.
Signed, Mundo
Moron, cretin, AND an irritation shit?
I must have struck a nerve somewhere.
Happy birthday.
Hearing rumours that the DT is going to run another story against Shorten next week. I’m going to assume its the old rape allegation.
https://twitter.com/johnlittle/status/1127141643730051072
I was going to say I’m not one of mundo’s personalities but would a creation of someone’s irrational mind even know? Jesus, maybe I am Mundo. Maybe we are all mundo.
Yes you struck a chord you irritating shit.
And thanks for the birthday wishes.
May 21st, and I expect to be on day three of a monumental blinder celebrating the election of a Labor government.
And you’re not invited.
Yes, the nerve that gets struck when false accusations are dispensed and no contrition is offered when their falsity is established. Otherwise known as the sense of right and wrong.
I was invited to be Mundo but declined. I don’t like sharing.
Bugger.
Then I’ll console myself with a Labor win.
You will be happy next Saturday Fulvio.
Ven
Those are ten good reasons. Reminds that we very badly need this mob of ratbags to get the heave ho.
Confessions @ #703 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:32 pm
Maybe on closer inspection it’s just a block of apartments. 😆
When the swing is on – it is on. So, is it on? Or not?
Joanne
Good luck with your scrutineering. I used to get my daughter to text me figures from Antony Green’s call through those holed up hours.
2004 was the most miserable night 2007 the most memorable. Called at abt 6.10 pm I hope this one is good for you.
We need more polls. Always more polls.
I am mundo. And so is my wife.*
*not actually mundo.
Patience Grasshopper there will be polling soon.
We might be going around the Mundo in 80 posts.
the blog looks like a lot of children / folk waiting to open presents shaking contents and frustrated with wait
seem liberals have wasted many many week in past three years waiting around for elections – they campaign because they dont govern
Some illustrious birthdays this month!!
18th my OH 19th Bill Shorten 20th S…M… 21st mundo
I might be Mundo – I occasionally have black outs when watching Morrison, Birmingham, Frydenberg and Cormann speak and then I can’t remember comprehending anything that happened in the previous 5 minutes.
17th is mine
about illustrious as gets
Mr Bowe
If you are around, do you think there has been a dearth of polling this election? Both seat and overall polling. I swear we used to get seat polls every 3 or 4 days. Is it a matter of neither side wanting to show how bad/good they are doing?
Several roadside corflutes down my way have miraculously transformed from Liberal “Labor will tax your tombstone” to “care for the elderly, increase Newstart” and the like.
Who performed the miracle is unknown but the corflutes are in close proximity to that of an independent candidate.
My guess about polling is that the people who generally pay for it don’t want too much of it. Labor and affiliates, because they want to keep confidential what they find out. Libs and cheer squad, because they think they’re losing and don’t want to turn it into a stampede of voters to Labor.
I.e. It possible suits both sides to not have as much polling.
Happy Birthday for hungry jack.
wtf? our intrepid sleuth Fulvio was barking up the wrong tree?
The government introduced the Robodebt system despite repeated warnings it was flawed.
It then gutted staffing at the DHS so Robodebt appeals could not be pursued. When a social media inspired backlash forced a reversal, the Coalition had hundreds of contract staff trained at taxpayer expense. Then it announced all those workers would not be renewed and at the same time gave the contract to a private company. The staff being released were advised they could get jobs with the contract company – at a lower wage.
The aim of all this was to reduce call wait times – not by solving the issues, but by answering the initial call, saying it would be referred and transferring the call onto hold. Then the government claimed initial call times had been reduced.
The Coalition deliberately left the NDIS understaffed to slow down service approvals. Then it claimed funding was not required because not enough service requests had been approved. It used this “excess” funding to claim a budget surplus.
In a previous incarnation the Coalition dismantled the CES and gave all the contracts to private companies, many of them donors to the Coalition.
The Coalition went to an election pledging no cuts to the ABC or the SBS and to match Labor’s promised education and health spending. All of these signed promises were broken.
But yes, Medicare was always safe with the Coalition. What a calumny to suggest otherwise.
hungry jack @ #730 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:55 pm
It is also the birthday of one of my sons!
the 17th is also the birthday of my best friends’ neighbours’ first wifes’ former room mates’ cat.
WayOutWest,
Amazing how people are just ignoring all that shit from the Coalition and voting instead based upon a tombstone meme! There’s nowt as queer as folk!