YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. Perhaps its the reduction of the time to maturity of the bet while the margin in recent polls hasn’t moved much?

    yabba @ #696 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    I am relaxed. I backed Labor at $1.36/$1.35 last Tuesday week, and laid off yesterday at $1.16/$1.15. $360 profit guaranteed with (now) no risk whatsoever. I must admit that getting down to $1.11 surprises me.

  2. On colluding in plain sight. Giuliani has been forced to cancel his trip.

    Mr. Giuliani said on Thursday that he had hoped to meet in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, with the nation’s president-elect and urge him to pursue inquiries that could yield new information about two matters of intense interest to Mr. Trump. One is the origin of the special counsel’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. The other is the involvement of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s son in a gas company owned by a Ukrainian oligarch.

    The trip raised the specter of a lawyer for Mr. Trump pressing a foreign government to pursue investigations that his allies hope could help him win re-election. And it comes after Mr. Trump has spent more than half of his term facing scrutiny about whether his 2016 campaign conspired with Ukraine’s hostile neighbor, Russia. Mr. Giuliani had planned to leave on Sunday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/11/us/politics/rudy-giuliani-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

  3. Mundo went to his own defence in a post yesterday,referring to itself as “his/her” in the third person, and then forgot to change his pseudonym from “mundo” to his alter ego.

    I suspect it has been entertaining itself as “Lincoln” today.

    I note it didn’t deny it.

  4. Mundo went to his own defence in a post yesterday,referring to itself as “his/her” in the third person, and then forgot to change its pseudonym from “mundo” to its alter ego.

    I suspect it has been entertaining itself as “Lincoln” today.

    I note it didn’t deny it.

  5. Confessions @ #674 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:58 pm

    Wow those crowds for Steggall are sure something. She has worked hard since throwing her hat in the ring for Warringah, has held true to what she’s campaigning on, and in my view deserves to beat out the tired, past it incumbent, who let’s be frank, isn’t there for constituents, but his own personal goals.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/BxUNps_HFfF/

    And I love how they have the Seminary that Tony Abbott trained at in the background of that photo. 🙂

  6. Isle of Rocks @ #703 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:19 pm

    Perhaps its the reduction of the time to maturity of the bet while the margin in recent polls hasn’t moved much?

    yabba @ #696 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    I am relaxed. I backed Labor at $1.36/$1.35 last Tuesday week, and laid off yesterday at $1.16/$1.15. $360 profit guaranteed with (now) no risk whatsoever. I must admit that getting down to $1.11 surprises me.

    No money changes hands until the result is declared, in either direction. In my case $360 odd will appear in my account when Betfair declares Lab or Coal are able to form government.

  7. Oh Fulvio you moron, I was referring to Ven.
    I don’t know if ven is a him or a her.
    Go read the post again cretin.

    Oh, and I’m a soon to be 63 year old male.

    And you are an irritating shit.

  8. “This time next week we’ll have a new prime minister.”

    At risk of being labelled a troll, if it’s as close as the polls are predicting, there will be no concession from Morrison next week. And wherever the Labor 2PP is at close of counting, postals will whittle away 0.5%.

    Hopefully a concession a few days after the election, a new PM sworn in about a week later.

  9. Mundo went to his own defence in a post yesterday,referring to itself as “his/her” in the third person

    It was actually Ven whom Mundo was defending from all too typically moronic accusation of concern trolling.

  10. I was going to say I’m not one of mundo’s personalities but would a creation of someone’s irrational mind even know? Jesus, maybe I am Mundo. Maybe we are all mundo.

  11. Yes you struck a chord you irritating shit.
    And thanks for the birthday wishes.
    May 21st, and I expect to be on day three of a monumental blinder celebrating the election of a Labor government.

    And you’re not invited.

  12. I must have struck a nerve somewhere.

    Yes, the nerve that gets struck when false accusations are dispensed and no contrition is offered when their falsity is established. Otherwise known as the sense of right and wrong.

  13. Joanne
    Good luck with your scrutineering. I used to get my daughter to text me figures from Antony Green’s call through those holed up hours.

    2004 was the most miserable night 2007 the most memorable. Called at abt 6.10 pm I hope this one is good for you.

  14. the blog looks like a lot of children / folk waiting to open presents shaking contents and frustrated with wait

    seem liberals have wasted many many week in past three years waiting around for elections – they campaign because they dont govern

  15. I might be Mundo – I occasionally have black outs when watching Morrison, Birmingham, Frydenberg and Cormann speak and then I can’t remember comprehending anything that happened in the previous 5 minutes.

  16. Mr Bowe

    If you are around, do you think there has been a dearth of polling this election? Both seat and overall polling. I swear we used to get seat polls every 3 or 4 days. Is it a matter of neither side wanting to show how bad/good they are doing?

  17. Several roadside corflutes down my way have miraculously transformed from Liberal “Labor will tax your tombstone” to “care for the elderly, increase Newstart” and the like.

    Who performed the miracle is unknown but the corflutes are in close proximity to that of an independent candidate.

  18. My guess about polling is that the people who generally pay for it don’t want too much of it. Labor and affiliates, because they want to keep confidential what they find out. Libs and cheer squad, because they think they’re losing and don’t want to turn it into a stampede of voters to Labor.

    I.e. It possible suits both sides to not have as much polling.

  19. The government introduced the Robodebt system despite repeated warnings it was flawed.

    It then gutted staffing at the DHS so Robodebt appeals could not be pursued. When a social media inspired backlash forced a reversal, the Coalition had hundreds of contract staff trained at taxpayer expense. Then it announced all those workers would not be renewed and at the same time gave the contract to a private company. The staff being released were advised they could get jobs with the contract company – at a lower wage.

    The aim of all this was to reduce call wait times – not by solving the issues, but by answering the initial call, saying it would be referred and transferring the call onto hold. Then the government claimed initial call times had been reduced.

    The Coalition deliberately left the NDIS understaffed to slow down service approvals. Then it claimed funding was not required because not enough service requests had been approved. It used this “excess” funding to claim a budget surplus.

    In a previous incarnation the Coalition dismantled the CES and gave all the contracts to private companies, many of them donors to the Coalition.

    The Coalition went to an election pledging no cuts to the ABC or the SBS and to match Labor’s promised education and health spending. All of these signed promises were broken.

    But yes, Medicare was always safe with the Coalition. What a calumny to suggest otherwise.

  20. WayOutWest,
    Amazing how people are just ignoring all that shit from the Coalition and voting instead based upon a tombstone meme! There’s nowt as queer as folk!

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