YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. lincoln there is one simple fact.

    Ever since Medibank was introduced, the Liberals whose world view is basically “I’m alright, fuck you” have opposed universal access to medicine. Its in their DNA. They are miserable, nasty shits who think its ok to get sick if you’re poor.

    The Liberals have attempted to weaken and break Medicare consistently for decades. Wear it.

    Now lets see you acknowledge the industrial scale lying that occurred on the part of the Liberals during the 2013 campaign.

  2. “However, because you cannot ever, ever, think that the party is wrong”

    contraire…… stephen conroy internet filter was a crock of poo

  3. Saying the coalition wants to dismantle Medicare is exactly like saying the coalition wants to dismantle Medicare.

    And you don’t have to have heard the current Liberal PM in the most recent debate stating that the answer to cancer treatment costs is to take out private health insurance to know this. You just have to take walk through history.

  4. Barney @7:26

    “At the end of the day speculating about what the Liberals might do in Government is all anyone can do because they don’t release details beforehand.”

    We know what they’ll do, even if not the specific details:
    – cut spending on health, education, welfare
    – privatise
    – introduce more handouts for mates and favoured demographics

  5. IoM @ #650 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 5:32 pm

    Clive Palmer just had a 5 minute advert attacking Mark McGowan on tv. The entire add break was the single UAP advert.

    That’ll work well for him in WA where McGowan’s team have done the hard yards in turning the state’s finances around after the shambles they were left in by the Tories – during a mining boom no less!

    As for working outside of WA, most non WA residents would be asking “Who is Mark McGowan?”

  6. nath @ #634 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:26 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:20 pm

    I see ‘nath’ is running away at a million miles per hour now from his insinuation in support of Scott Morrison. Gotta keep the facade in place at all times.
    Why would I bother? Why wouldn’t I just be a Liberal and say Liberal things? Your reasoning is fairly suspect. I mean, you were thinking the liberals were running an anti-muslin campaign because there was a communications tower in one photo. You’re a crackpot.

    My goodness. Hit a raw nerve have I, ‘nath’? As any of us who have been around politics know only too well, and numerous examples prove it, the Liberal Party will engage in any and every underhanded trick in the book in order to keep their grasping claws on power. Creating facebook pages to attack Labor candidates. How about 6? Creating a bald-faced lie about a non-existent Labor policy? Not a problem.

    Assuming false identities is all part and parcel of this. It’s too obvious and ineffective to ‘be a Liberal and say Liberal things’, much more effective to assume a persona that is not a Liberal, but when the Liberals need defending to swing in promptly to do so.

    So, as there is nothing to prove your vindictive assertions about the truth or otherwise of what I’m saying at all, you don’t even try. Instead you stoop to a new low and attempt to cruelly embarrass me here instead, simply because I have answered your lame defense of Scott Morrison by way of factual analysis.

    Anyway, why did the Liberal Party (and there you go again, referring back to something to do with the Liberal Party and their propaganda), put a communications tower that looked like a Muslim call to prayer tower in that pamphlet?

    An answer without more contemptible abuse would be appreciated. 🙂

  7. Buce

    Privatising key functions of Medicare(for efficiency ffs) is privatisation all the same. This would be the same efficiency (lower bills!)that privatisation brought to the electricity sector? Banking? Telecoms? You’re flogging a dead horse

  8. There were prominent Liberal MPs (John Herron springs to mind) whose only purpose in entering politics was to dismantle Medicare.

    And, of course, Malcolm Fraser actually did.

  9. Boerwar @ #641 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:27 pm

    There are dozens of bits and pieces that the Coalition is privatizing in our health system. Never fear. The bastards will lie through their teeth while dismantling it bit by bit by bit.
    In the same way they supported the ABC by destroying it a bit at a time.
    You know the drill. Save your breath.

    Exactly. Liars are gonna lie.

  10. Wow… I would like to throw some of you a bone and suggest that you are delusional but I fear that many of you are not.

    Instead, you know the lies you promulgate but are Macchiavellian about it. That is truly evil.

    Real bottom-dwelling types. The ALP revealed the true depth of depravity with that Mediscare campaign and no one here has given anything remotely like evidence because it doesn’t exist. All the sheer excuses and long bows offered here were precisely the same for Laborites post 2016 election. That none of you are prepared to admit the depravity now is evidence that you are morally bankrupt. Say the LNP is also bankrupt too… I don’t give a Flying… Pig. It also doesn’t change your culpability… just puts you in the same cess pit.

    What awful human beings…. 🙁

  11. C@t. There is countless evidence that you are immune to embarrassment. If you still think that a communications tower looks like a minaret then I’d suggest some international travel might alleviate that particular delusion.

  12. Rossmore @ 7:34 pm

    “Betfair … ALP into 1.11 LNP out to 8.2”.

    On those figures, people who keenly want the ALP to win will be putting money on the coalition: the sort of money those odds could return could comfort Labor supporters in their hours of sorrow.

  13. of course liberals are undermining medicare – they wont increase rebates thus forcing higher out of pocket, they create waiting lists (and deaths) so people forced to private or private insurance etc etc

  14. “I think it would be delicious irony if the whole “death tax” thing on FB caused enough of a swing that the ALP lost the election… Why? Because the Mediscare thing is still the most evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous move ever by a political party.”

    The joy that Lincoln’s continuing pain brings has quite made my day.

    Remember the “carbon tax” lie? Remember just about every lying campaign the Lieberals have ever run and poor ole’ Lincoln bleats like one of Pell’s ruptured choirboys because Labor ran a very believable campaign that goes to the heart of the Lieberal’s hateful DNA.

    The Mediscare campaign got traction probably because of the fact that Fraser privatised Medibank, after promising not to.

    Plus the fact that the Lieberals pushed two labor governments to double dissolution elections to get a universal healthcare system up. Folk remember that for two decades the Lieberals fought Medicare all the way.

    Plus the fact that Dutton-Hockey-Cormann-Abbott attempted to introduce a copayment and when that failed made a temporary freeze long term.

    Then they commissioned a study into privatising certain functions. At the same time that Lieberal State governments across the land, but especially in NSW were indulging in an orgy of privatisation.

    The Mediscare campaign was a free kick. One richly deserted by these pirates.

    Suffer hard Lincoln.

    I’ll tell you one thing to help with your pain: Labor will have one heck of a mandate to introduce a death tax if it wins the election on the back of this Facebook campaign: I suggest a 100% inheritance tax on the Australian media holdings of foreign media proprietors. Bwhaha!

  15. “Betfair … ALP into 1.11 LNP out to 8.2”

    Those are extraordinary odds. As per discussion yesterday, are betting markets being moved by inside knowledge? On financial markets, it has been observed that activity on a company’s shares in the leadup to a big announcement – insider trading. Then there’s the maxim for the racetrack- note where the “colourful racing identities” put their money and do likewise.

    Hopefully it’s something like that, although the polls and the ‘vibe’ give no such indication.

  16. Lincoln says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:44 pm

    What awful human beings….

    If you think so, we must be doing something right.

    Thank you! That’s quite a complement. 🙂

  17. nath @ #660 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:44 pm

    C@t. There is countless evidence that you are immune to embarrassment. If you still think that a communications tower looks like a minaret then I’d suggest some international travel might alleviate that particular delusion.

    ‘Immune to embarrassment’, huh? Oh, how kind of you to make that observation, well actually, just another barely-disguised insult. To be entirely expected.

    So, minarets don’t look like communications towers, eh?


    Anyway, all of that is an irrelevant distraction to the original point I made, and that was that your spirited defense of Scott Morrison’s nicking of an idea for his own benefit as being counterfactual, was a load of old bollocks. 🙂

  18. ‘FS
    Nah. Mundo had a sort of inadvertent class as a troll.’

    What do you mean ‘had’, I can hear you you know….sheesh..

  19. Wow those crowds for Steggall are sure something. She has worked hard since throwing her hat in the ring for Warringah, has held true to what she’s campaigning on, and in my view deserves to beat out the tired, past it incumbent, who let’s be frank, isn’t there for constituents, but his own personal goals.

  20. Minarets are communications towers by design and by intent.
    They were built, inter alia, to give the Muezzin maximum vocal reach with the call to prayer.
    The loudspeakers are a modern aid to the work of Allah.

  21. I would agree that the post by suave sounds very sus to me. It’s very much of a piece with a thousand bits of internet fake news that you see with ‘and you wouldn’t believe’ ‘they don’t want you to know’ ‘I was there’ ‘it astonished me’ with nothing to back it up from an anonymous user.

    It might be true.

    It most likely is not.

    Regardless, it is entirely irrelevant to the current political contest. What Morrison may or may not have done in another life has pretty much zero relevance to the question of whether he deserves to lead government after this election – there are plenty of much more immediate motivating factors in how this last government traveled and in the mean and tricky promises going forward.

    Worse, if – as is likely – it’s typical internet nonsense, if it gains any traction it’s just a bomb waiting to go off in terms of showering everyone concerned in “you believed this load of tosh, your ‘facts’ are nonsense”.

    So, to sum up, (a) we have no way of knowing if it is a true story, (b) it doesn’t matter even if it is a true story, and (c) you’re probably just tarring your own reputation, and Poll Bludger’s collective reputation, by passing it on or using it in an argument.

  22. ‘It seems that concern troll/sock puppet mundo has disappeared since his multiple personalities were exposed yesterday.’

    Did I miss something?

    Been a bit busy.

  23. Lincoln says:

    “What awful human beings….”

    To be described in that way around here by a Liberal is a badge of honour. You’ve made so many people so proud.

    Clearly, Liberals don’t get irony.

  24. C@t,

    You’re 100% correct, as someone who has stayed very close to some, they are a kind of communication tower.

    5 o’clock in the morning, oh is that the time. No need for an alarm clock. 🙂

  25. That PvO piece in today’s Australian is a masterpiece of arse-covering / having a bet each way. Reminds me of all the gallery ‘insiders’ who wrung their hands, made a point of telling you they were going to vote Yes to SSM, but insisted that No would win because Abbott’s a brilliant negative campaigner.

  26. Of course, apart from getting rid of Medicare, the “Liberals” also want to get rid of the ABC, unemployment benefits and ultimately the minimum wage.

  27. Christ, is there any sentiment worse in electoral politics than indignation? Harden up. As long as laws aren’t being broken or anything like that, you adapt to the other side’s actions, not sulk about them.

  28. Steve777 @ #674 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    “Betfair … ALP into 1.11 LNP out to 8.2”

    Those are extraordinary odds. As per discussion yesterday, are betting markets being moved by inside knowledge? On financial markets, it has been observed that activity on a company’s shares in the leadup to a big announcement – insider trading. Then there’s the maxim for the racetrack- note where the “colourful racing identities” put their money and do likewise.

    Hopefully it’s something like that, although the polls and the ‘vibe’ give no such indication.

    Betfair odds are moved simply by what individual bettors, who have nothing whatsoever to do with Betfair, are prepared to offer and accept. The current price simply means that there are some people who are prepared to ‘lay’, ie accept a backing bet, where they pay the backer their $1 back, and a profit of 11 cents, if and when Labor is sworn in. Likewise for the $8.20 on offer for backers of the coalition. Betfair could not care less about where the various prices are, from time to time. They just take 6% of the winning party’s profit.

    I am relaxed. I backed Labor at $1.36/$1.35 last Tuesday week, and laid off yesterday at $1.16/$1.15. $360 profit guaranteed with (now) no risk whatsoever. I must admit that getting down to $1.11 surprises me.

  29. C@tmomma
    So, minarets don’t look like communications towers, eh?
    I forgot about the critical role played by loudspeakers in the digital spectrum.

  30. Jackol agree with you observations above. Morrison and the Coalition will lose because of their own failings in government. Labor don’t need a jumble of “what if’s” posted as facts to prosecute a case to change governments.

  31. Oh the irony, it hurts.

    Care to expand on that?

    I hope you’re not going to attempt a whataboutism on me. Because you’re barking up the wrong tree there.

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