YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. My lasting memory of Morrison is in the aftermath of the recent Wentworth by-election, with Morrison and Frydenberg on stage. Josh with watery unfocused eyes shifted uncomfortably from side to side and looked like he needed urgently to be somewhere else, but Scott was his “charming” overflowing unstoppable best. I hope tomorrow that I will be amazed at Scott’s skill playing an accordion with his toes. Josh? Meh!

  2. nath@6:48pm
    What you posted could be the real truth. That person who circulated pub story must be hating Morrison like somebody else on PB regarding Shorten.But you never came to the rescue of Shorten regarding Shorten’s mother story.

  3. Ven says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 6:54 pm

    nath@6:48pm
    What you posted could be the real truth. That person who circulated pub story must be hating Morrison like somebody else on PB regarding Shorten.But you never came to the rescue of Shorten regarding Shorten’s mother story.
    _______________________
    I’m not coming to the rescue of Morrison. Just pointing out a factual error.

  4. I think it would be delicious irony if the whole “death tax” thing on FB caused enough of a swing that the ALP lost the election… Why? Because the Mediscare thing is still the most evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous move ever by a political party.

    Some key differences:
    1. The Mediscare campaign was led by Bill Shorten and we know it was prosecuted by the ALP all and sundry, even though it was maintained with not one iota of truth. This Death Tax meme has not been owned or linked to ANY Coalition personnel.
    2. The Mediscare campaign was promulgated upon the oldest and most vulnerable Australians. If the current “Death Tax” phenomenon causes people to be influenced in their vote then they don’t take the time to read comments or check facts and are fools. Most users would have a young mean age and such taxes would not even affect them.
    3. People are not being robocalled about the Death Tax like citizens were about the Mediscare lie, nor are cards being handed out to voters by Unionist/Get Up/Political Parties as if it were true.

    It would be clear evidence of Karma if the numbers man behind the axing of two ALP prime ministers, who almost won the last election on a lie were to fall at this election due to a lie against his party.

  5. I’m predicting a Newspoll of 50/50. One thing that amazes me, is the lack of seat polling. Now I know these have proven to be unreliable lately, but given that we got plenty in the leadup to super Saturday, and always lots of marginals being done before general elections, I’m not sure what’s the deal there. All we get now is the “liberal sources say” type tidbits in articles. Here in SA I’ve been phonepolled a number of times in Boothby, but the only numbers I have seen have been for Mayo and Sturt.

  6. “Mediscare worked because the Libs spent $5m of taxpayer’s money looking at how it could be privatised/outsourced.”

    And because the Coalition has form:
    They opposed its introduction
    The shut down the original Medibank
    They tried to shut down bulk billing by introducing a co-payment, which had it been introduced would have been ratcheted up as the years go by.
    The IPA, representing their major bankrollers, want to end it (Wishlist 20: Means-test Medicare)
    They are ideologically opposed to it and want to push people into the arms of private insurers

  7. Enjoying a quiet evening at home reflecting that in a little less than one week’s time, Antony Green will be calling it for Labor (I’m expecting at 7.11pm – earliest call ever!). Though I’ll be scrutineering so will miss it (SIGH).

  8. There have been a fair few seat polls luke, if you scroll back through the posts you’ll see them. They’re not that useful though.

  9. “Because the Mediscare thing is still the most evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous move ever by a political party.”

    Wot? A campaign based on the facts of what the Coalition had actually tied to do in attempting to privatize the payments system? You are well into the fact free MSM/Coalition tribal initiation kool aid aren’t you. 🙂

  10. You can try to put that lipstick on a pig all you like… the fact is that “Mediscare” was a blatant lie. The ALP, Bill Shorten and most but the most vulnerable of Australians thought so too. There is no moral excuse or gymnastic twist of ethics that can justify it… It remains the low water mark of Australian politics…

    The political equivalent of that infamous underarm bowl.

    Instead of hanging your heads in shame, you defend the indefensible. Wherever the Death Tax came from I would consider it justice were it to shift the voters enough for Bill Shorten to do a “Hewson”.

  11. imacca… you are far worse. You are an outright liar if you think there is ANY evidence that the Coalition tried to “dismantle Medicare” or had any plans to.

  12. Bluey Report: Seven Days to go to Seventh Heaven

    The single biggest event today was that the PBO costings of Labor’s policies was a total non-event. What might, in other times, have turned into the mother of all slag fests about black holes simply did not eventuate.

    Bluey had a bit of a chortle this morning. The Twerking Sinophobe bought two full pages of advertising at the front end of ‘The Weekend Australian’. In the same issue Mr Sheridan was in full fulmination about what Australia should do about China. He had some exhortatory words for Ms Wong. He seemed dimly aware that Australia’s national interest might deviate a tad from the Trump National Interest but failed to resolve the conundrums.

    Bluey wonders whether punters expect that Mr Palmer will do to Australia what he did to the Coolum Resort?

    Bluey rates Mr Taylor as a top performer in his class. In yet another example of his capacity to dot the t’s, and cross the i’s while desiccating the MDB, Mr Taylor just plumb forgot about the JRAT up his drainpipe. Caught out yet again, Mr Taylor promptly made up a new rule about conflicts of interest in order to know what needs to be registered on his most peculiar pecuniary interest register. Bluey reckons that this is routine Taylor stodge and slop. While on the topic of Taylor’s slops, Bluey notes that his promise to cut energy bills by 25% lasted less than 24 hours before being slaughtered by experts. That promise has joined Price hiding.
    Bluey cast his thoughts towards accountability for the Coalition’s contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event. Bluey thought Hunt was useless and that Frydenberg was useless but Bluey reckons Price takes the cake for being useless. Bluey reckons that the best thing about Price is that she does not bother pretending that she is useful.

    We seek Price here, we seek Price there
    The Bludgers seek her everywhere
    Is she in heaven? – Is she in hell?
    That damned elusive Ministar!

    Bluey wonders whether anyone has checked the Puff Adder’s man shed at the back of the garden.

    Bluey had yet another chortle when Mr DiNatale announced that the Greens had ‘delivered in spades’. Bluey wonders exactly what the Greens delivered on the spades but reckons it was probably not ripe oranges.

    Bluey notes that today was another excellent day for the surviving candidates, with none having any of their personal hate fest social media smeared across the Strayan political landscape.

    Bluey notes that there is some particularly vile advertising doing the rounds. Some creepy religious peeps reckon that Labor murders babies. Yep. LABOR MURDERS BABIES. The material includes a cute picture of a cute baby. The latter looks completely unaware that s/he is about to be murdered by Labor. Bluey wonders whether these are the same sort of zealots who harass innocent and potentially fragile women near clinics, who murder abortion doctors, who are infiltrating the Liberal Party, and who just passed some state legislation in the US declaring that a foetus is a person. Bluey notes that these same creepy peeps whinge piteously about the way in which free speech of nice religious people just like them is being restricted. Bluey looks forward to Mr Morrison publicly distancing himself from these vile creatures.

    Bluey notes that the Liberals were whinging and whinging and whinging about Mediscare. This does not seem to have stopped righteous people from accusing Labor of forcing totally innocent ute owners to buy electric vehicles, murdering babies, lifting taxes by a trillion dollars, destroying the housing market, destroying the Australian economy, destroying our rural industries, selling out to Communist China, and taxing the dead. Bluey reckons that when Bill gets in he is going to be a very busy fella.

    Bluey notes that there is yet another round of polling with moorish MOES and that there is yet another round of sly hints about good, bad and evens prospects for individual seats. Bluey reckons that if you want to do accurate augery get yourself some chicken entrails, tea leaves, or the blood of a freshly slaughtered bull.

    Bluey has noticed some discussion about whether Morrison is better than Trump. Bluey reckons that Morrison has never actually publicly bragged about pussy grabbing which is one genuine difference. Plus,Trump has a trophy wife.
    As for the rest, Bluey reckons that there is no real difference between Morrison and Trump. They are both serial failures in the private sector. They both routinely tell big lies. They are both dangerous to their colleagues if said colleagues get in the way. They both inflame racism. They both inflict routine vilification on political enemies. They both vilify the weakest members of society. They both bastardize the weakest members of society. They are both egomaniacs. They both pander to the uber wealthy while pretending to be for the ordinary people. They both seek to generate and ride waves of hate and waves of fear. Neither has even the most basic understanding of history. Neither does policy complexity. They are both wedded to coal. They both hate the environment. The list of same/same goes on and on and on.

    Bluey reckons it is good to see that the ABC is getting $60 million and that Labor is going to treat the APS as if it is populated by human beings.

    Score for the Day: Labor 1; Coalition 0.
    Cumulative score: Labor 26; Coalition 4.

  13. Dan Gulberry says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:04 pm
    1. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if nath isn’t just a habitual shit-stirrer.
    2. Nor would it surprise me if he didn’t post on one or more of the various RWNJ sites (under a different pseudonym of course) using similar styles of attack on Morrison and his band of murky miscreants.
    ______________________________________
    1. I’ve been known to stir a turd or two.
    2. I don’t have that much energy.

  14. ‘Lincoln says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:09 pm

    imacca… you are far worse. You are an outright liar if you think there is ANY evidence that the Coalition tried to “dismantle Medicare” or had any plans to.’

    Don’t kid yourself.
    The Coalition hates Medicare. Always has. Always will. It is in their DNA to try and wreck it.
    To this end there was a little unit in the APS with the title of Medicare Privatization Unit. The title was apparently irony free.

  15. “Because the Mediscare thing is still the most evil, insidious, deceitful and scandalous move ever by a political party.”

    We’ve had months of industrial-scale disinformation, scare-monger in general and outright lying from the Government through all channels, not least the Murdoch megaphones.

  16. It must be nice to have a convenient scapegoat to blame a near election loss on Lincoln. I think the larger issue was that Turnbull was just not connecting with voters and seemed to stand for nothing. He took mass good will when deposing the detested Abbott and did nothing with it.

  17. Darn

    hear hear on calling parties by their names not some Kindersprache pet pejorative. Lib-kin, Lib-lab, same-same and all the permutations. It makes the argument practically unreadable for me

  18. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:02 pm
    “Mediscare worked because the Libs spent $5m of taxpayer’s money looking at how it could be privatised/outsourced.”

    And because the Coalition has form:
    They opposed its introduction
    The shut down the original Medibank
    They tried to shut down bulk billing by introducing a co-payment, which had it been introduced would have been ratcheted up as the years go by.
    The IPA, representing their major bankrollers, want to end it (Wishlist 20: Means-test Medicare)
    They are ideologically opposed to it and want to push people into the arms of private insurers

    The frightening thing is that I realise you are not trying to be funny. Not only are most of these assertions demonstrably false, but not one of these assertions remotely points to ANY plan of the Coalition to “dismantle” or to “privatise” medicare. Not one of the dire predictions came true after Turnbull’s election, not one document supported any of these assertions. The ABC’s own Fact Checkers found the claim false and yet it was promulgated by the ALP all and sundry up until 6PM on polling day. Shame. Shame. Shame.

  19. C@t ‘Well, what do you know, ‘nath’ going in to bat, and quite promptly too, for the Liberals’ main man. Not that it surprises me.’

    Of course, what Nath posted still doesn’t exclude the possibility that the idea was not the agency’s. It could have been suggested to them by their client. Where the client got it from may have been from some out-of-work drinker in a pub in Sydney.

  20. So an advertising agency worked up an idea to put a gloss on it. Depends who came up with the idea. If Scott Morrison pitched it to the advertising agency you’ve got to wonder where a generally incurious and unimaginative man came up with something like that.

    Anyway, I’ve read the paper ‘nath’ linked to and it struck me as funny, as in peculiar, that he knew exactly where to go to find it and exactly where, within the paper itself, to find the information that would exonerate Scott Morrison.

    Except it doesn’t. The part of the paper ‘nath’ refers to doesn’t mention Scott Morrison by name at all:

    Given this background, in July 1999, George Hickton, the then Chief Executive of Tourism New Zealand (then New Zealand Tourism Board), launched a new marketing campaign. The new campaign was called, “100% Pure New Zealand‟. Designed by the reputed advertisement agency M&C Saatchi, it emphasized New Zealand‟s natural beauty.

    This poses some questions to my mind.
    * Could someone remind me when Scott Morrison was at the NZ Tourism Board again and what his position was? I was of the opinion that Scott Morrison was the CEO of the NZ Tourism Board who was answerable only to the NZ Tourism Minister? Which, if true, doesn’t cohere with the above facts.

    * How does this in any way exonerate Scott Morrison from nicking an idea from someone in Australia and then taking it with him to NZ and his new job and when there suggesting it to the advertising agency, Saatchi anyway?

  21. A campaign based on the facts of what the Coalition had actually tied to do in attempting to privatize the payments system? You are well into the fact free MSM/Coalition tribal initiation kool aid aren’t you.

    The Liberal party have had designs on dismantling Medicare for decades. Just like the Republicans have always opposed taxpayer funded health care and want to dismantle Obamacare.

  22. PeeBee says:
    Of course, what Nath posted still doesn’t exclude the possibility that the idea was not the agency’s. It could have been suggested to them by their client. Where the client got it from may have been from some out-of-work drinker in a pub in Sydney.
    ____________________
    Maybe, Baby. This has clearly elevated to a potential story. If only there were actual journalists to chase this down the appropriate rabbit hole.

  23. Ray Sanderson
    @sando88

    Paul Bongiorno in ‘Saturday Paper’ says News Ltd ‘DailyTelegraph’ has another dirt file ready to dump on Bill Shorten this week. Paul says the story is ‘highly defamatory and legally dubious’. Will they smoke an exploding cigar again?

    No prizes for guessing what this may be.

  24. I see ‘nath’ is running away at a million miles per hour now from his insinuation in support of Scott Morrison. Gotta keep the facade in place at all times.

  25. They say imitation is the highest form of flattery so someone obviously has the hots for Gerard Henderson and his Jackie the Media Watch Dog.

  26. Any ALP sycophant in here that defends the Mediscare campaign is plainly reprehensible. All “what about X” comments above pale into absolute insignificance.

    That any party would hand out those cards to the elderly. That any party would call the elderly, infirm and go through hospitals with pre-polling actually telling people face to face that the government had plans to dismantle Medicare when it patently did not is reprehensible.

    No amount of “well the Libs do this and that” justifies it. Do you all let your kids get away with reprehensible behaviour because “other kids” do the same or worse??? The fact here is that NO PARTY has done worse than this. To scare elderly people to vote, regardless of your reasons (which not one person here has convinced me is anything but a blatant lust for power), is just reprehensible.

    However, because you cannot ever, ever, think that the party is wrong, the rest of the world (particularly those nasty Libs) have to be wrong. Nope. Nothing is worse than this and it would restore my faith in the ALP if a single person in here would admit that the Mediscare campaign in 2013 was unethical in the extreme.

  27. Bravo Bluey!

    On the Morrison/Trump comparisons, one thing that separates the Oz PM from Potus is that the PM is not directly elected by the voters.

    And thanks to the Westminster traditions for that.

  28. Saying that the Coalition wants to dismantle Medicare because it wants it to operate more efficiently and part of that could involve getting the private sector to provide back office services is like saying that the ALP wanted to dismantle the Australian Defence Force by getting civilians to take on base logistics roles.

  29. Lincoln says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:08 pm

    You can try to put that lipstick on a pig all you like… the fact is that “Mediscare” was a blatant lie. The ALP, Bill Shorten and most but the most vulnerable of Australians thought so too. There is no moral excuse or gymnastic twist of ethics that can justify it… It remains the low water mark of Australian politics…

    The political equivalent of that infamous underarm bowl.

    Instead of hanging your heads in shame, you defend the indefensible. Wherever the Death Tax came from I would consider it justice were it to shift the voters enough for Bill Shorten to do a “Hewson”.

    The difference is that the Liberals don’t release their policies during the election, so nobody really knows what their policies are until the first Budget.

    They make motherhood statements that are simply lies.

    No cuts to the ABC, no cuts to hospitals, etc.

    Meanwhile Labor releases all of their policies and the Liberals only effective comeback is to make up stories about things that are not in them.

    At the end of the day speculating about what the Liberals might do in Government is all anyone can do because they don’t release details beforehand. 🙂

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 7:20 pm

    I see ‘nath’ is running away at a million miles per hour now from his insinuation in support of Scott Morrison. Gotta keep the facade in place at all times.
    __________________________
    Why would I bother? Why wouldn’t I just be a Liberal and say Liberal things? Your reasoning is fairly suspect. I mean, you were thinking the liberals were running an anti-muslim campaign because there was a communications tower in one photo. You’re a crackpot.

  31. Buce
    There are dozens of bits and pieces that the Coalition is privatizing in our health system. Never fear. The bastards will lie through their teeth while dismantling it bit by bit by bit.
    In the same way they supported the ABC by destroying it a bit at a time.
    You know the drill. Save your breath.

  32. Lukey

    given the bulk of campaigning by both parties is in government held seats I would find a 50/50 Newspoll a bit hard to believe. I think the 51/49 polls may reflect the phony war period over Easter and Anzac Day, that’s when the bookies odds were tightening. Now they have blown out to such a degree that the idea of a close result stretches credulity for me(though I hope Labor and also Greens campaign as if their lives depend on it). Lucien Aye on his own can’t have skewed things to that degree

    The media have a lot of prestige tied up in the idea of a Lib win or at least a competitive Lib showing, and its also in their interests to talk up a close contest to harvest clicks

  33. Lincoln
    – my first two points are history. Demonstrably true.
    – The Co-payment would have stuffed around doctors and patients but only raised about $200 million. If it was about money, a 0.1% increase in the levy would have raised more with minimal impact. The only conceivable reason that they would go this route, coupled with the freeze, is to reduce bulk billing. OK, my interpretation of the 2014 Budget.
    – The IPA item would effectively end Medicare. The IPA says what the Liberal party’s major backers and donors want. Again my interpretation of facts.
    – The last item – well, the Coalition have form on privatisation. They want to minimise Government provision of services. Why don’t hey argue that position instead of lying? Maybe because it’s ballot box poison.

  34. We all know that the Liberals and their fellow-travellers consider Medicare “socialism” therefore should be privatised. It is as true now as it was in the last election.

    Lincoln, your outrage is confected.

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