YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. the partisans are fretting unnecessarily about the death tax fake news. But there is a strong stench of hypocricy about this. Labor engaged in the mother of all fake news campaigns in mediscare last election, and whats more it came close to turning the result. So you lot hardly have grounds to complain now.

    Still, you shouldnt panic, mediscare worked because medicare is a massively sensitive issue with the public. I really cant see the same resonanse with death taxes.

  2. @KB

    Confirmed – Jessica Whelan likes post saying to vote for Fraser Anning on obscure page of very obvious Anning supporter.

    How (apart from tactically) can Liberals and Nationals justify continuing to preference her anywhere but last?

    #politas #Lyons

  3. Would love to see the evidence that so called “mediscare” had anything to do with the close 2016 election result.
    I know Malcolm chucked a dummy spit about it

  4. The 2016 result I think is more to do with the ground game, Labor and groups like Getup. Their is a reason that the Liberals try to ban Getup.

  5. We wound up our son’s estate after much legal work and ended up paying 15% on his superannuation/life insurance lump sum. SO obviously there are forms of ‘death tax’ in operation now.

  6. Press Club:

    .@ScottMorrisonMP will now be delivering ‘The Prime Minister’s Election Address’ at the #NPC this THURSDAY 16 May. #AusVotes2019 

    AVOID TV AND RADIO!!!

  7. I really hate blatant bullshyte in campaigns whoever is doing it. Especially since trump.
    And anyone that says they are both as bad as each other, HELL no. Right wingers are in a league of their own.
    I am slightly annoyed!

  8. It is quite obvious that the Libs, after the DT hit job on Shorten went bad, and having demonstrated Shorten’s empathy for women wanting to work and having the deck stacked against them; decided that they too must show empathy (to counter the ALP’s). So, a bit of ‘agile’ workshopping and we get Scott surrounded by lots of admiring women and Scott showing lots of empathy for them, just like Bill.
    Not only that but he threw in some dosh as well – a whole years’s worth, by golly. (of course it will be turned off as soon as possible should they gain power, but we won’t be told about that aspect of the play.)

  9. Dogs breakfast

    Funny there are few mentions the taxation that already applies to superannuation funds on death.

    Many people would be surprised that the funds only go tax free to a dependent and there is a strict definition of who are dependents.

  10. The person who claimed that Scott Morrison pinched his “100% New Zealand” idea for his own as head of New Zealand tourism has a vivid imagination. As if an executive like Morrison would ever push a campaign idea like that after getting it from a guy in a pub.

    In any case it was developed by the advertising company M.C & Saatchi.

    ‘100% Pure New Zealand’ Destination Branding Campaign: Marketing New Zealand to the World, IBS Center for Management Research.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269114309_'100_Pure_New_Zealand'_Destination_Branding_Campaign_Marketing_New_Zealand_to_the_World

  11. I reckon Shorto or Bowen could knock the death tax scares ontheir Head by referring to then as “desperate LNP scares on Facebook”

    That should inoculate the virus

  12. I’ve been door-knocking this afternoon with the irrepressible optimist and dedicated bludger, grimace. I think he should be renamed The Persuader, in consideration of his talent for swaying voters to support Labor. If field campaigns make the difference between winning and losing elections, Labor will win Pearce very easily.

  13. Correct c@t re Tory launch tomorrow.
    It’ll be scomo, introduced by his missus, flanked by his daughters and old mumsy, in a pink tie.
    He’ll then do a Trump style mini rally, lots of wandering around the stage, folksy homilies and he’ll probably throw in another Winx analogy, since, you know, it seemed to go down so well the last couple of times.
    Expect Kelly O’Dwyer and Michaelia Cash (god forbid, “and here’s our proim minista !) to also have a say.

  14. the partisans are fretting unnecessarily about the death tax fake news. But there is a strong stench of hypocricy about this. Labor engaged in the mother of all fake news campaigns in mediscare last election, and whats more it came close to turning the result. So you lot hardly have grounds to complain now.

    No doubt The Oz will still be fulminating indignantly about it three years from now.

  15. Sprocket@6:14pm
    CH7 nightly news focuses on Scotty’s ‘woman problem’
    But This Galaxy opinion poll says Women are his secret weapon. Whom should I believe?

  16. frednk says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 4:11 pm

    Don’t like suave’s post. It strikes me as unsourced nonsense. I think we will see a lot of that in the next week and it is all best ignored.

    Agreed.
    Who is this guy? The name at the top doesn’t reveal anything.

  17. I’m sorry Ven I should have stayed quiet. Or better yet not investigated. It just seemed odd that a major advertising campaign was not developed by an advertising agency when that it the normal course, rather than executives stealing ideas or making them up in the shower.

  18. William Bowe @ #584 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 6:38 pm

    the partisans are fretting unnecessarily about the death tax fake news. But there is a strong stench of hypocricy about this. Labor engaged in the mother of all fake news campaigns in mediscare last election, and whats more it came close to turning the result. So you lot hardly have grounds to complain now.

    No doubt The Oz will still be fulminating indignantly about it three years from now.

    Well, at least some of their commentators.

  19. Charles@6:44pm
    “Liberals are shopping Shorten mother story on tuesday”. It came out on Wednesday. Even to put it mildly it is Shocking.

  20. Charles

    Yep this was also referenced in the Article. And as I had mentioned previously, they were weighing up their options as to whether they would go ahead with it. Apart from it being highly defamatory, Shorten has the goods on many pollies including those on his own side. As I also said, I report, you decide…..

    News Corp sources say the Tele has another story on their news file to throw at Shorten. It is highly defamatory and legally dubious. The desperation that led to the attack on Shorten and his mother’s memory may give them pause to think about running it. As one Labor campaign worker says, “It’s difficult to know where the government ends and News Corp begins.”

  21. Just tuned in the TV only to see Clive spruiking how nuclear power will make electricity cheaper.

    (blurregggh!)

    All jokes aside, how many people do you think would actually accept the premise (that nuclear power is cheaper) ?

  22. nath @ #572 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    The person who claimed that Scott Morrison pinched his “100% New Zealand” idea for his own as head of New Zealand tourism has a vivid imagination. As if an executive like Morrison would ever push a campaign idea like that after getting it from a guy in a pub.

    In any case it was developed by the advertising company M.C & Saatchi.

    ‘100% Pure New Zealand’ Destination Branding Campaign: Marketing New Zealand to the World, IBS Center for Management Research.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269114309_'100_Pure_New_Zealand'_Destination_Branding_Campaign_Marketing_New_Zealand_to_the_World

    Well, what do you know, ‘nath’ going in to bat, and quite promptly too, for the Liberals’ main man. Not that it surprises me.

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