YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

• Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

• The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. It seems the death tax is reverberating. Our kids tell us their FB pages and friends pages are full of it.

    I saw Kristina kenneally calling out Morrison about it at Bill’s presser today. Not good if it’s cutting through so I asked my neighbour who still reads the GG. She believes everything in it. Alice Workman has written about the FB pages. Apparently thousands upon thousands are doing the rounds. It said Bowen and Labor are failing to counteract it. Aaagh

    That stuff on FB is disgusting I dont know how the LNP can spread such lies and get away with it.

  2. I haven’t seen any of those posts on Facebook. In fact I’ve hardly seen anything political on Fb this election. Even the local Liberal member is posting positive stuff, not attack posts on his opponent.

  3. BH @ #493 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    It seems the death tax is reverberating. Our kids tell us their FB pages and friends pages are full of it.

    I saw Kristina kenneally calling out Morrison about it at Bill’s presser today. Not good if it’s cutting through so I asked my neighbour who still reads the GG. She believes everything in it. Alice Workman has written about the FB pages. Apparently thousands upon thousands are doing the rounds. It said Bowen and Labor are failing to counteract it. Aaagh

    I understood that Facebook had been ordered to remove it. Obviously not happening so needs to be counteracted ASAP.
    My friend got sent it very early in the campaign and we were able to put some correct information in front of the sender in that case.

  4. suave, that story about Morisson being a thief and a bully ought to be spread far and wide. Its exactly how I feel about him and most of the Liberal front bench. A right bunch of oxygen thieves.

  5. Phoenixred

    The freedom caucus within the GOP has taken over the party,
    As John Boehner former speaker who resigned, said that the party has been taken over by idiots and zealots and I quote

    29 Oct 2017 · BOEHNER ON … THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS. “They can’t tell you what they’re for. They can tell you everything they’re against. They’re anarchists. They want total chaos. Tear it all down …

  6. shiftaling

    The cheapest way to do mailouts is to hire the people who do deliver the supermarket pamphlets. If they have more than one leaflet to deliver, then they’ll do that as a job lot.

  7. BH @ #493 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    It seems the death tax is reverberating. Our kids tell us their FB pages and friends pages are full of it.

    I saw Kristina kenneally calling out Morrison about it at Bill’s presser today. Not good if it’s cutting through so I asked my neighbour who still reads the GG. She believes everything in it. Alice Workman has written about the FB pages. Apparently thousands upon thousands are doing the rounds. It said Bowen and Labor are failing to counteract it. Aaagh

    I don’t do FB, but I do have an account I can use. So after logging in I searched for “death tax labor”. There is a lot of it. Christensen, Hanson, Frydenberg, Malcolm Roberts, Neil Angus and others promoting the idea, and one post describing “how it works”. There are also a few posts from Labor MPs, Guardian, and possibly the ABC and SBS (I didn’t read the details) pointing out the lie.

    And lots of people seem to believe the lie. There’s a week and just under 90% of voters left to vote.

  8. You can’t stop that fake news. Facebook is a world of its own and there is nothing you can do about it. Every minute you try to counteract it all you will do is fan the flames more and get more people talking about it.

    Instead of worrying too much just report it to facebook (nothing will happen) and instead share your own content.

  9. The msn should hold these turkeys accountable for the FB lies.
    Labor should start playing dirty too and make up a FB bullshit story and force the msn to address it.
    Pathetic.

  10. “It seems the death tax is reverberating. Our kids tell us their FB pages and friends pages are full of it.”

    I’ve spent the last 3 weeks – nearly every spare moment I have – posting comments on the Lieberals Facebook propaganda posts. Unfortunately it’s like a hydra. I’ve complained to Facebook because this campaign is beaded on proven lies. Nothing, absolutely nothing, has been the response. Feck you Facebook.

  11. Victoria says: Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 4:33 pm

    Phoenixred

    The freedom caucus within the GOP has taken over the party,
    As John Boehner former speaker who resigned, said that the party has been taken over by idiots and zealots and I quote

    29 Oct 2017 · BOEHNER ON … THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS. “They can’t tell you what they’re for. They can tell you everything they’re against. They’re anarchists. They want total chaos. Tear it all down …

    ***************************************************

    When I see never-Trumpers like Lyndsey Graham ( Trump is a nut-job – will ruin the GOP ) turning into obsequious sycophants – then I have to wonder what Trump has on them ????? …… J E Hoover kept extensive dirt files on all politicians to use against them when threatened – and I think Trump either through fear/exposure keeps a number of the GOP under control …….

  13. PhoenixRed

    Precisely, People such as Lindsey Graham have fallen into line with the anarchists, because they are compromised.

  14. When I see never-Trumpers like Lyndsey Graham ( Trump is a nut-job – will ruin the GOP ) turning into obsequious sycophants – then I have to wonder what Trump has on them

    phoenixRed, Victoria:

    You should watch today’s Real Time. They get into this in relation to Cohen, who apparently is now in jail.

  16. FB needs to be controlled. Fake news is a chronic issue that becomes acute during an election. And I’m getting pretty hard nosed in my antipathy to Zuckerberg and his cronies. If their product is not fit for purpose, I don’t care how difficult it is to fix, it gets banned until it can be shown to have been fixed. (Easy for me, since I don’t use FB.)

  17. Victoria andDr fumbles

    Neighbour’s response ‘it might be true’ so it resonates . After talking about political lies and the GG she said she will ask for her son’ suggestion which will be Libs but it’s a safe Labor seat here so I left it at that. She doesn’t use FB

  18. More signage update. Every light post in the flat area of Manly is plastered with GetUp posters and then lots of Zali ones on properties. Only one Abbott one.

  19. Labor should seriously consider having a go at Facebook and possibly going for an urgent injunction (can’t recall if FB have an Australian presence, I think they do).

    Specifically, some of these campaigns are defamatory and would not attract the extended qualified privilege defence because they are not reasonable and are actuated by malice. Facebook is liable as soon as they are on notice of a particular publication.

    Also, there’s an argument that Facebook publishing this stuff is conduct in trade or commerce which is misleading or deceptive. The problem they have is that both paid and unpaid content form a critical part of their business model, so trade practices legislation quite possibly applies to it. I’m not aware of any authority ruling out this type of attack on the intermediate publisher.

    They should also go for pre action discovery of the details of the original posters of some of this material.

    Ditto for Twitter and WeChat.

    At the very least legal action would show how serious the issue is and make sure that most Australians are aware that these ads are bullshit.

  20. All Labor need to do is promote a Facebook ad saying “it’s not Labor that want a death tax, its Scott Morrison that refused to rule it out” with that video of him, and remarket it to every user that got the Libs lies sent to them, using FBs hyper targeted marketing tools.

  23. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph,… Solomon {is} …“in contention”

    Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns… …there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon

    Starting 6% behind, plus a clear national swing on top, and up against a saleable if so far unremarkable incumbent candidate, this seat has only ever been a distant possibility for the local branch of the Libs (aka CLP).

    The fact they are talking up this outside chance tells you how desperate they are getting for good news stories about ScoMo.

    –––––––––––––––––––

    zoomster @ #214 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    Factions within a party keep things pretty civilised. I’ve seen worse behaviour within school staffrooms – and certainly on local boards and councils – then I’ve ever seen amongst the factions.

    Hobby forums are the worst for bitter personal feuding & empire building.

    Professional politics is amateur hour by comparison.

    –––––––––––––––––––

    torchbearer @ #301 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 11:38 am

    Yes, I love the nonsense that (for certain tax refunds) YOU ARE THE COMPANY, so if a company goes bankrupt, are you still the company? Are you responsible for the company debts?

    They want all the benefits and protections of limited liability, but don’t want to pay the premium for it, just expect everybody else to pick up the tab (via the tax system and social costs), while they waltz off scot-free, with capital intact.

    Blatant scam. Shut it down.

    –––––––––––––––––––

    Cud Chewer @ #321 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 12:17 pm

    I essentially only want three things from this election,
    1: a labor win.
    2: Abbott to lose his seat.
    3: Dutton to lose his seat.

    That’s how I feel too.

    What I’d like to ask you guys is what other victories would be satisfying? Who else deserves a poetic fate? What upsets would you like to see?

    Porter. Nasty dangerous man.

    The most suitable fate for him is to be permanently deprived of power over others.

    Him gorn, plus a decent Labor win (80+), and I will be pretty happy. 🙂

  24. Unfortunately Steve, the 2013 election proved conclusively that industrial scale lying does work. And I’m surprised Labor’s adds don’t feature actual video from that campaign.

  25. “All Labor need to do is promote a Facebook ad saying “it’s not Labor that want a death tax, its Scott Morrison that refused to rule it out” with that video of him, and remarket it to every user that got the Libs lies sent to them, using FBs hyper targeted marketing tools.”

    Totally. And it can be factual to boot.

  26. Been at prepoll all day today at a shared Kingsford-Smith/Wentworth booth. Very positive for Labor on the KS side of things, whilst those from Wentworth typically seemed to be taking Kerryn Phelps HTVs. A lot of the Phelps voters seemed to be disaffected Lib voters. They didn’t seem to be quite over the whole rolling of Malc quite yet and appeared worried that Dave Sharma would be too socially conservative. Lots of people though.

  27. Its more than misleading, fake websites and media releases , very well organised , fake website, fake media release just so low and so organsed the lnp will do anything

  28. Victoria says: Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 4:47 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Precisely, People such as Lindsey Graham have fallen into line with the anarchists, because they are compromised.

    ****************************************************

    They say that Mitch McConnell is the most powerful man in Washington DC – because he keeps the Senate under his control and stave off GOP attempts to dethrone Trump …… but there have been many questions of foreign money laundering/kickbacks ……raised about him and his wife …… and as ex-NSA John Schindler has said- it will be years from now before the TRUTH is known …..

    The Full Story of Trump’s Russia Ties Will Come Out—But It’ll Take Time

    https://observer.com/2019/04/trump-russia-ties-espionage-full-story-mueller-report/

  31. There’s no way Labor can win. Polls non stop against them for 3 years, disunited, policy lazy, mediocre (or worse) shadow cabinet.

    Whereas the government has been working conscientiously and competently to look after everyone regardless of their station in life, has demonstrated exceptional teamwork, and are continually developing great policies. And particularly in the government’s favour is their great appreciation of the contribution of women, and highly values that half of the population.

    Shorten and Labor fans are just dreamin.

  33. The trouble with satire like that, Psyclaw, is that there is a more than zero number of Bludgers who’ll take you seriously.

  36. Late Riser @ #515 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 2:50 pm

    FB needs to be controlled. Fake news is a chronic issue that becomes acute during an election. And I’m getting pretty hard nosed in my antipathy to Zuckerberg and his cronies. If their product is not fit for purpose, I don’t care how difficult it is to fix, it gets banned until it can be shown to have been fixed. (Easy for me, since I don’t use FB.)

    I’ll state it here loudly and boldly.

    If you use Facebook, you are an enabler of Fake News.
    It matters not if you use it for benign purposes (ie keeping in touch with friends and family), you are still enabling it. The entire reasoning behind asking you to divulge more and more personal information about yourself is not, as they state, to help you connect to friends, family, like minded people, etc.. It is to sell highly targeted advertising to you, including fake news, from which they receive billions in revenue from these advertisers. If you absolutely must use it (and there is no reason at all to do that), ALWAYS USE AN ADBLOCKER while accessing it, and NEVER ACCESS IT WITH A MOBILE PHONE.

    If you subscribe to FoxTel, you are a Murdoch enabler.
    It matters not if you use it because of shitty reception in your area, or just for benign stuff like Game Of Thrones, the latest movies or sports. The money you spend with them is enabling SkyNews After Dark, FoxNews, etc.

    FoxTel is an evil. Facebook is even more evil. If you value democracy, you will have nothing to do with either of them. If you value your privacy as a citizen, you will avoid Facebook like the plague.

  37. I don’t think the death tax scare will change anything. However it needs to be called out as much as possible. Many people pay little attention to politics but things like this may grab there attention. It also has the potential to backfire as we have seen with overreach from articles about Bills Shortens mother.
    We need to protect democracy as much as possible and the media has a role in this also.

  39. LR

    Can you please also put me down for 52-48 Newspoll and 53:47 Essential and 53:47 Ipsos.

    kind regards,

    Sir Yabba Cholmondeley-Smythe.

  43. Anyone know what happened to the Reachtel polls released sometimes on Channel 7 News on Fridays? And Sky News polls on Sunday mornings?

  48. I would have thought that if you believe the Death Tax story, then you have to believe that Labor has been completely dishonest in hiding this secret plan.

    In other words you wouldn’t be voting for Labor anyway.

  49. Steve the Coalition can win the election until about 7.30pm next Saturday when I expect it will become obvious they haven’t won the election.

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