YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

• Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

• The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  3. I do think Morrison has conducted this campaign far better than Turnbull did the 2016 one. With the cards Morrison was playing with he’s done pretty much the best job.

  4. On the two occasions I’ve received mailouts from Labor in Sturt t they’ve had Liberal pamphlets folded into them, what’s the story there

  5. ”
    Generic Person says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 3:10 pm
    Paul Kelly really is a fossil. I mean, it is absurd to say that the Labor party is ready to govern when it wants to tax the economy to death.
    ”
    Can you enlighten me on Labor Tax increases? Other than increasing the Super tax from 15% to 30% for Amount over $200000, what are the other taxes they are increasing?.

  6. My own view is that impeachment simply plays into the hands of Trump and his angry, crazy fan base. Republicans will never be on board with it, and so while it may be the right thing to do given everything that has transpired with the Mueller report, impeachment proceedings will just look like the Democrats playing party politics.

    I agree on impeachment. I think most hard headed Dems in Congress and the Senate agree too. But there are some reputable Dems AND republicans that are deeply unhappy with the way the administration is being run, the lack of transparency and accountability to Congress and the impunity they seem to assume. So long as the requests are reasonable then they should go nuclear on insisting on them being met.

    For example, seeing Trumps tax returns as a whole seems partisan and will bite them. but if they are only after details that relate to foreign investment and the potential influence and interference that might illicit then they have a case.

  7. ALP should keep repeating LNP is giving $88 billion to top end of town

    Did Sales hit Morrison with that? She accused Shorten of redistributing wealth from rich to poor. I am assuming she accused Morrison of redistribution wealth from the poor to the rich.

  8. Morrison hasn’t had Abbott and Dutton whiteanting him the way they did with Turnbull. They’ve been safely locked in their own electorates battling to save their political careers instead of free-ranging on friendly media to undermine their own leader.

  11. @Generic Person:
    “Morrison deserves credit for at least making the Coalition competitive again. Turnbull is and was a lazy campaigner.”

    Books are going to be written on this topic.

    Some will say that the polls were always going to move to the Liberals closer to the election; that Turnbull was about to take the lead before he was rolled (pay no attention to that 55-45 Ipsos, to the fact that Turnbull’s improving polling came before he failed to get the NEG through, before Super Saturday defied the polls and the media punditry, and on the back of the media’s collective effort to “kill Bill” and give Turnbull zero scrutiny during the long byelection campaign without parliamentary sitting days); that Turnbull would be winning this election campaign if only they’d stuck with him because people like him more than Shorten, etc.

    Some will say that the identity of the Liberal leader is basically irrelevant, apart from a brief period of outrage after Turnbull’s fall that quickly faded away again; that the vote is for the Liberal Party and their image/brand, and that Morrison is where Turnbull was and would have been.

    Some will say that Morrison, as Abbott-lite, is the sort of leader the Liberal Party needs to be competitive. Under Turnbull, the Liberal Party was trying to stake its claim on areas which are not what people associate with the Liberal Party. Innovation, new industries, talking a big game on taking action on climate change, the future! Turnbull’s Liberals fought Labor on Labor’s ground and when people are thinking about those issues, they choose Labor over the Liberals. When Turnbull came across as grossly inauthentic when opposing Labor climate change policy, opposing Labor on health and education funding, and so on. Under Morrison, the Liberals are staking their claim on being the same old same old. Morrison is unapologetically not Labor. He and his people are singing from the same song sheet on this, rather than the issue where nobody believed Turnbull agreed with halg his cabinet on almost any topic. There’s an argument that in doing so, Morrison is more appealing to wavering Liberal voters than Turnbull was, and that the kind of soft left voters who voted for Turnbull in 2016 believing he’d take action on climate couldn’t be lost by rolling Turnbull because they were gone anyway.

  14. SK:

    Adam Schiff is mulling fining recalcitrants who ignore subpoenas. Perhaps that’s the most effective way of dealing with Trump and his ilk: hit them in the hip pocket where it hurts the most!

  16. Simon² Katich®

    It would be

    I am assuming she accused Morrison of redistribution wealth from the undeserving poor to the deserving rich.

    Bonus, it would be right up Pastor Fozzie’s church philosophy.

  21. Morrison will tomorrow concentrate on “ fiscal conservatism “ giving labor the opportunity to push the hypocracy of $77 billion in unfunded tax relief to top earners.

    “ What will Morrison have to cut to fund these tax cuts ? “

    As much as labor has a good story re its budget strategy one of the main reasons it released its costings before the Morrison launch is to give it the space to attack these very same tax cuts of $77 billion and the lack of detail as to how they will be paid for.

    If this is what Morrison wants to concentrate on in the last week so be it.

  26. Simon² Katich® says: Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 3:24 pm

    My own view is that impeachment simply plays into the hands of Trump and his angry, crazy fan base. Republicans will never be on board with it, and so while it may be the right thing to do given everything that has transpired with the Mueller report, impeachment proceedings will just look like the Democrats playing party politics.

    I agree on impeachment. I think most hard headed Dems in Congress and the Senate agree too. But there are some reputable Dems AND republicans that are deeply unhappy with the way the administration is being run, the lack of transparency and accountability to Congress and the impunity they seem to assume. So long as the requests are reasonable then they should go nuclear on insisting on them being met.

    **********************************************************

    If the House votes to impeach, the matter moves to the Senate, where a trial is held. The chief justice of the US Supreme Court presides over the trial.

    A two-thirds majority vote is required in the 100-member Senate to convict and remove a president from office.

    The Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. At least 20 Republicans would have to vote with all Democrats and the two independents to remove the president.

    The number of Americans who said Trump should be impeached rose five percentage points to 45 percent since mid-April, while more than half said multiple congressional probes of Trump interfered with important government business, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday.

    So ….. my way of thinking is to keep all the investigations going and subpoena Mueller, Don Jr, McGahn, Bannon, Kushner, Ivanka etc etc on a continual basis before the US public and exposing Trumps every move to compound his “crimes’ to further garner public opinion/GOP members against him ……

  27. ”
    nath says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    Abbott and Dutton going would actually help the Liberal Party in the long run. I’m still hoping that Sukkar cops it. And Hunt. He’s a tough guy on the phone when talking to little people. In front of the camera butter wouldnt melt in his mouth. Yes, Hunt would be the sweetest.
    ”
    What about Morrison based on below post:
    suave says:
    Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 1:49 pm
    This via a friend who’d like to share this story from a friend of hers; David Tank:
    I met Scott Morrison in a pub in Sydney 21 years ago and what I learnt that night about his character is something every Australian should know before they cast their vote next Saturday. It does not cast him in a good light.
    It was at my local of the time, the Royal Hotel in Paddington, a wonderful place which in the fine egalitarian tradition of the good Aussie pub was a place anyone could strike up a conversation with anybody. Social butterfly that I was, I loved it.
    Morrison had just gotten the job as Director of the New Zealand Office of Tourism and Sport and we spoke at length about NZ tourism. I had worked at the New Zealand Tourist and Publicity Department in the mid-eighties and had some very definite idea’s as to how to promote Aotearoa New Zealand to the world. Idea’s which I took great delight in sharing with him.
    I was also unemployed and saw it as an opportunity for some high quality networking. More fool me. He is not a good man.
    New Zealander’s will be familiar with 100 per cent Pure New Zealand. It has been used since 1999 in all of our international marketing work – including advertising, international PR activity and online marketing, event and sponsorship activity. It’s one of the most successful tourism marketing strategies in the world and the winner of countless awards. And yes that night I pitched it to Scott Morrison over a beer.
    The genesis of 100 per cent New Zealand Pure lies in both my time at the New Zealand Tourist and Publicity Department and in 1990 when I was involved in the establishment of the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand. I always intended it to be both an advertisement of the great natural beauty of our country and as an aspirational statement; reasoning that if we sold ourselves to the world as a place of great natural purity then we would be obliged to work to ensure it remained so.
    Needless to say I am proud of its impact and while Scott stole it and laughed in my face while he did so I’m really not too fussed about that theft, I have plenty of good idea’s. But I am fussed about such a man as he leading a country I love. He is a bully and a thief, a liar and a thug; Australia deserves better and frankly right now Australia NEEDS better.
    Our world is burning and we have no time left to indulge the selfish ambitions of the greedy and shallow. Scott Morrison is not a fit person to be Prime Minister.
    It is his response to Labor’s campaign slogan “A fair go for Australia” that prompts me to write this. He said “you have a go you will get a fair go..” He lied. He didn’t care about that 21 years ago and his record in Government shows he doesn’t care about it now. That bum is out for himself and his mates only, pity the many if he keeps power. That night I gave it a fair go. I said “I need a job, I know New Zealand tourism marketing, I’m a journalist, and I came up with this idea back when we started the Greens. “He did the usual thing these thieves with power do when it comes to intellectual property theft. He said “well how do I know you’re any good? What’s the idea?” And so like all those who lack power and must therefore trust in the personal integrity of those who do I pitched 100 Per cent Pure.It is to his shame not mine what happened next.
    He said “well you’ve given it to me now so I don’t need you.”And when I remonstrated with him his response was “You told me yourself you are unemployed so you can’t do anything about it”. And he did that with such a sneer as he leant his big frame over me in that menacing “space invader” way such thug bullies do. That night I saw Scott Morrison as he is, not as he pretends to be. It was ugly. But, he was right. I had no resources or contacts that I could use to hold him to account.
    I was powerless and he delighted in that powerlessness and the humiliation he meted out. It was nasty. He is not a man who can be trusted to govern in the best interests of all. If you doubt that then consider his track record. His rise to power has been marked by general bastardry, both to those in his way and those who have had the misfortune of falling subject to his administrative whim. He is a master of dirty politics who has so far largely avoided the muck that he has proven so adept at throwing at others. This thug has thus far had the ability to always fail upwards.So it was heartening today to see a poll showing he is one of the least trusted politicians in Australia and can only hope that that translates into a landslide loss to him and his mates next Saturday. I love Australia and the thought of that man being anything but an aberration in power is a deeply concerning one.
    “

  28. I don’t post very often, prefer to lurk but had to share this nonsense on facebook messenger from a friend in Gilmore

    “Labor, the Greens & Unions also have signed an agreement to introduce a 40% inheritance tax.Everything you own cannot go to your kids or next of kin at death 40% goes to the govt.Please share this with all your friends.
    https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/21149/”

    I don’t know how they can get away with such blatant lies and fake websites. The LNP are just bottom feeders in my opinion. Looks genuine enough to fool some people.

  33. At least 20 Republicans would have to vote with all Democrats and the two independents to remove the president.

    Exactly. And the majority of Republicans in the Senate are Trump supporters who just do whatever McConnell says they should do. It’s not going to happen.

  35. And Shorten and Morrison are both a lot better than Trump despite their failings.

    I’m not at all sure I agree Morrison is significantly better than Trump, he has the same kind of failed business past, he is the same kind of dodgy conman, same kind of dishonesty as a constant feature, same contempt for the rule of law and norms, similar corruption.

    So I’m not getting the ways in which Morrison and the LNP are better than Trump and the GOP.

  36. Confessions says: Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 3:51 pm

    At least 20 Republicans would have to vote with all Democrats and the two independents to remove the president.

    Exactly. And the majority of Republicans in the Senate are Trump supporters who just do whatever McConnell says they should do. It’s not going to happen.

    ***************************************************

    IF enough ‘dirt’ is exposed from many sources under House subpoena/questioning/TV and media reporting – Stone/Wikileaks/Don Jr etc then – just maybe ?????? Trump could see the writing on the wall and resign – but then the SDNY will be waiting 🙂

  37. Once again I suspect that the WA votes will play no critical role next Saturday night.

    If Kim Travers can replace Christian Porter in Pearce it will be critical enough for me, would also be nice if Wyatt goes in Hasluck.

  38. Hey LR
    Having almost given up predicting the Newspoll results,and having tried to cheat by stating that whatever the poll result actually was, it was what I reckoned it would be, and that I was keeping my actual prediction secret. You were very straightfaced and recorded my words. Chastened, I am going to stick my neck out just once more…..53-47 Labor -Coalition, Newspoll and Essential. There, I’ve committed myself.
    Thanks for your time and efforts. They’re much appreciated.

  39. phoenixRed:

    Trump ordered McGahn to publicly state he never believed Trump committed obstruction of justice.

    This is tin pot dictator territory. What’s next, having his political opponents arrested?

  41. I don’t see Trump resigning, is what I’m saying. If anything he’s digging in further, obviously emboldened by the fact that he can get away with it.

  42. Confessions says: Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 4:06 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Trump ordered McGahn to publicly state he never believed Trump committed obstruction of justice.

    This is tin pot dictator territory. What’s next, having his political opponents arrested?

    ************************************************

    I am hoping that anyone who is subpoenaed – either personally or asked to turn over specific documents – and refuses to comply – will be dealt with under US legal proceedings – severely fined and/or thrown in jail !!!

  43. Don’t like suave’s post. It strikes me as unsourced nonsense. I think we will see a lot of that in the next week and it is all best ignored.

  44. It seems the death tax is reverberating. Our kids tell us their FB pages and friends pages are full of it.

    I saw Kristina kenneally calling out Morrison about it at Bill’s presser today. Not good if it’s cutting through so I asked my neighbour who still reads the GG. She believes everything in it. Alice Workman has written about the FB pages. Apparently thousands upon thousands are doing the rounds. It said Bowen and Labor are failing to counteract it. Aaagh

  45. Election poster in Bondi….

    “What happened to a
    Modern Liberal”

    Then a picture of a down-at-the-mouth-Turnbull

    😀

  46. Chris HayesVerified account @chrislhayes
    6h6 hours ago
    The President is very obviously laying the groundwork to abuse his office in order to sic the power of the state on his political opponents. It’s as corrupt as it gets.

    I was half joking about Trump arresting his political opponents.

  47. Democrats are going forward in a methodical manner.
    Trump would like nothing more than impeachment proceedings to start, as It would stop all the other investigations including the subpoenas for William Barr, Don Jr, and getting Mueller to testify after it is cleared through the courts.

  48. Confessions says: Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 4:07 pm

    I don’t see Trump resigning, is what I’m saying. If anything he’s digging in further, obviously emboldened by the fact that he can get away with it.

    ********************************************

    Conservative calls for the total annihilation of the Republican Party

    Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin said in a column for The Washington Post, that the GOP should be dismantled after ignoring President Donald Trump’s attempt to, yet again, gain help from a foreign government to help him win an election

    She then said that the Republican Party could not be “rehabilitated” after serving under the leadership of Trump.

    “I am often asked whether the Republican Party can be rehabilitated,” she said.

    Rubin added, “A party is made up of individuals; in this case, a group of elected leaders who uniformly invite foreign intervention in our election should be permanently disqualified from holding office. They have violated their oaths in the most egregious manner possible and cannot be entrusted with power again. Ever.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/10/trump-will-betray-his-country-again/?utm_term=.50dd836792ce

  49. BH

    Precisely what I said days ago. Hence why my vibe at present is Labor will just scrape over the line.
    They need to get the message out that it is fake news.

  50. “It seems the death tax is reverberating. Our kids tell us their FB pages and friends pages are full of it.”

    fek they play dirty.

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