YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.

Also featured are gender breakdowns that have excited the Courier-Mail, but to my eye look rather implausible in having the Coalition primary vote six points higher among women than men. Among men, the result is 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 35%, Labor 32%, Greens 10%, One Nation 9% and United Australia Party 6%; among women, the Coalition leads 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 8% and United Australia Party 4%.

Latest calling of the horse race:

• In her column in today’s Weekend AFR, Laura Tingle says there has been “the sound of something snapping in the federal election this week”. Apparently drawing on Liberal sources in New South Wales, Tingle relates a feeling that “Tony Abbott is gone in Warringah”; that Gilmore and Reid “seem lost”, that Lindsay is no longer looking quite so flash either; that Cowper and Farrer might go independent; and that “senior cabinet ministers are panicking and drawing in resources to protect their own seats”.

• However, no such snapping noise has reached the collective ear of News Corp, whose papers today offer a flurry of bullish assessments for the Coalition. According to Sharri Markson in the Daily Telegraph, the Liberals are likely to gain Wentworth, Lindsay, Indi and Herbert; Labor-held Dobell, Solomon, Cowan, Bass and Braddon are “in contention”; and Corangamite and Gilmore are, “at this point”, likely to stay with the Liberals. Only Chisholm and Dunkley are conceded, although there is some prospect of Labor winning La Trobe, Swan and Reid, and independents winning Cowper and Warringah. However, this appears to be entirely based on an assessment related to Markson by Scott Morrison, who might well be suspected of gilding the lily.

Dennis Shanahan in The Australian also discerns “an almost Trumpian path, difficult and unacknowledged, for Morrison to be re-elected if everything falls his way”. Prospective Labor gains in Queensland “are slipping away and giving Morrison a chance of a net gain”; there is a “likelihood” Labor will lose Solomon; “senior Liberals believe they will hold and even add to the Coalition total” in Western Australia; there is “obviously a big chance for the Coalition to win back Bass and Braddon”, and Labor even fears ousted Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan could pull off a Pauline Hanson in Lyons; while in New South Wales, “expected Labor gains may not materialise” (though it is acknowledged independents may win Cowper and Farrer). That leaves Labor heavily reliant on a brace of gains in Victoria, of which only Chisholm and Dunkley are bolted down, and where they are threatened in Macnamara by the Liberals as well as the Greens.

The Australian also reports today that, contra Laura Tingle, “Tony Abbott’s prospects of surviving a challenge from independent candidate Zali Steggall appear to have improved, according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.

• In the commentary accompanying the YouGov Galaxy poll, Renee Veillaris of the Courier-Mail reports that “LNP insiders believe they may lose just one seat – Flynn – but pick up Herbert”; that Labor is “retreating from key Queensland marginal seats that they believed they could win just weeks ago” (although Bill Shorten did visit Leichhardt yesterday and Petrie the day before, and Scott Morrison was in Capricornia yesterday); and that incumbency effects are likely to cancel out the advantage to Labor recorded by the poll.

• The last of these viewpoints, at least, is not restricted to News Corp, with Amy Remeikis of The Guardian assessing that Queensland is “looking like a zero-sum game for both major parties”. Labor-held Herbert and Liberal-held Leichhardt are rated as even money, and while Flynn and Brisbane are acknowledged as further possibilities for Labor, the Liberals are thought to have their nose in front in Petrie.

Further reading for today is, as ever, provided by the Seat du jour post below this one, relating to the key Queensland seat of Herbert.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

902 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19
  1. Hi from Bonn

    Catching up on the day in politics in Oz.

    I was idly looking at twitter, and noted some strong concerns / rumours that New Limited is about to drop a “smut” smear on Shorten, probably on what is now today (Saturday) in Australia.

    However, I think the Newscorp over-reach on Anne Shorten may blunt that attack – we shall see.

    This line of attack would make sense as it seems as though Morrison will be doing his launch on Sunday as some sort of Trump rally, with a friendly crowd, and cries of “Lock him up”.

    My best guess is it will not work, but expect a short-term hit in Newspoll, for a day or two.

  2. I recall talk at the last election that internal polling had Abbott at risk in Warringah and nothing eventuated. Shannahan unfortunately threw away any credibility years ago, which is a shame given internal insight from a more impartial writer would be appreciated. Although at this late stage nothing can really be believed!

    I don’t really believe Labor won’t pick up any marginals in Queensland with a 3% swing though. Still, there’s not much in it according to the polls…

  3. Desperation is in the air from the Coalition and the murdochracy.

    The interpretation they have given of the current state of play is rose-coloured glasses stuff if you look at Bludgertrack.

    Strangely, SKY is suddenly on the case with Angus Taylor …

  4. Labor have to win with a PV @ 1/3….difficult. The Lib-kin and Lib-Lib disruption plans appear to be having their intended effects….

  5. If Labor win, it will be despite the institutionalised division on the left – despite the determination of the Lib-Kin to keep working people out of power. Even if Labor win, they will face a Lib-Lib, Lib-clone and Lib-kin majority in the Senate who will immediately set out to deprive Labor of power once again.

    Australian politics is gravely dysfunctional.

  6. Rocket Rocket,

    Answering your question from yesterday, there is no visible presence of Alternative für Deutschland in Bonn, but I am in the centre, and it is a University town, with many academic, artistic and musical institutes, and even some Federal government ministries leftover from the West German FDR still here.

    However, while having a beer at the near-by Biergarten, I saw a procession of three 60 something bearded men, with Deutsche Kommunistische Partei corflutes, cable ties and a ladder go past. The Altstadt of Bonn will be bedecked in the morgen.

    I also mentioned the war in the Biergarten, and think I got away with it. Talking to OH about some of the self-declared left in Australia, who are pro-brexit, we recalled the early 1930s in Germany, when the left insisted that the system had be be smashed, expecting the revolution. Of course what Germany got was Hitler.

    So the conversation goes:

    Me: Totally weird that some of the Australian left are in favour of Brexit, when the left in Europe are desperate to keep the EU together.

    Me: Actually, I get it, they just want to smash the system, so something better can grow in its stead.

    OH: I do not want to break Godwin’s law, but, this is what happened in German after 1929, and look who came out on top.

    Me: Oh don’t worry, Godwin hims self had come out and said that his law was only about how bulletins board threads that when open for ever eventually ended – someone mentioned Hitler. Godwin himself has recently said it is fine to call some of our current political operators Nazi’s , because that is way they are.

    At this stage the two men at the table next to me stopped talking and looked at me. I quickly moved the conversation on, and ordered another pitcher of the excellent Hausgemacht Hell beer.

    When it arrived they joked about how big it was, and how impressive it was to see me lift it to put in glasses. Nice guys, but I think they were just checking whether I was John Cleese.

  7. Itep,
    I will answer your question for myself: Competition on the left is fine, as long as it does not lead to what would otherwise be be a narrow ALP margin becoming a Coalition victory.

  8. But there are parties competing with the Coalition on their right too… If Labor lose it won’t be anyone’s fault except their own.

  9. ltep, my contention is that the campaign against Labor by the Lib-kin makes it easier for the Lib-Libs to win.

    My further contention is that since the rise of the Lib-kin in the late 2oth century, not one single substantial worthwhile reform has been achieved that has endured. Even further, if the Lib-kin had existed in the 1940s, the 1970s and 1980s, the great nation-building reforms – the Constitutional and legislative achievements of Curtin, Chifley, Whitlam and Hawke – would have been impossible.

    The Lib-kin are an anti-worker political expression. Their success is a measure of Labor’s weakness. They are not a leftist party at all. They are an instrument of reaction.

  10. Nath:

    At the Federal level it’s always different. Rudd … was really the only Qld PM we’ve had

    The ghost of Andrew Fisher mocks your ignorance!!!

  11. Itep

    But there are parties competing with the Coalition on their right too… If Labor lose it won’t be anyone’s fault except their own.

    Even Richard de Natale said at the NPC that getting rid of the Coalition government is essential.

    If the “self-proclaimed left” spend a lot of time this week attacking Labor, then it will provide a small amount of help to the Coalition. They do not need to do this.

    All the Greens and fellow travellers to say “Vote 1 for us, but do not forget to preference the ALP over the Coalition”.

    If all they do is attack Labor, then some people will just get the message – vote 1 Green / socialist alliance or whatever, and then will just donkey vote the rest of the paper. Depending on the draw in a particular seat, it will favour either the Coalition or Labor (if the draw is truely random, then it should split about 50/50).

    Kevin Bonham has shown that the Greens not explicitly peferencing Labor makes only a small difference, less than 0.5% if I remember, but it could deliver a few close seats to the LNP, and change the outcome of a close election.

    Of course if you genuinely think it does not matter if the Federal coalition wins another term in government, I would question you credentials as being “of the left”. Many poorer and disadvantaged people will be worse off if the current mob get another term.

  12. @briefly when was the last time Labor had a majority in the Senate? If it wasn’t the Greens and the Democrats helping those reforms across the line it must have been the Liberals. Maybe it’s time for a grand coalition. Seriously though, I’d like to see Labor do well. There’s an election on and you’re out there changing hearts and minds. It’s fair to say this is a pretty safe place to vent your frustration if it means you can keep your happy face on for the rest of the day. Be gentle on yourself.

  13. Upnorth:

    Queensland Labor did a very important thing on 23 March 1922 when they abolished Queensland’s Upper House.

    Those members had their life time appointments cancelled at the stroke of a pen. Unrepresentative swill.

    The Legislative Council was a disgrace and it was a good thing it was abolished (with the assitance of Winston Churchill BTW)

  14. The Greens have only held sole balance of power for a short period of time – during the Gillard minority government. This was an extremely productive period of legislative history, including such reforms as the NDIS. Of course Labor get the credit for this but they were greatly assisted, legislatively speaking, by the Greens. This was in the face of the most obstructive Opposition in history.

    Comparatively, Labor has been fairly constructive in terms of facilitating the working of the parliament.

  15. Regards Queensland, the LNP are currently hopeless campaigners , a fact acknowledged by their Liberal and National cousins down south. They are also cash strapped and quite reliant on southern money for the campaign.
    In my part of Bonner, the ALP have heavily leafleted the seat and have door knocked the area twice.
    We have not once laid eyes on the LNP being out and about.In Bonner though there are signs out and about they A themselves are not physically evident door knocking or on street corners and roads waving signs, not one.
    Though we have had four leaflets during the campaign.
    The Labor Party will win marginals in the State and the LNP know it, but they cannot concede this to their members and supporters, whom they want to turn out in support this week and on the 18th.
    The cash strapped LNP are looking down the barrel in the South East in seats such as Bonner, Dickson, Forde and Petrie, they admit to Brisbane and Bowman being in play.
    Laming and Vasta are desperately spending their own money
    In the provincials Capricornia, Dawson and Flynn are in play.
    I believe Labor will hold all their seats and all this talk about Herbert being a hot chance for them is just that, talk.

  16. Briefly, I think you are beginning to hyper-react to every change in commentary that is happening.

    Fo instance, the QLD poll just published is almost exactly what Bludgertrack was saying about that state for a while now. And while maybe slightly inflated in terms of seat change – it says Labor should gain 6 seats. Even if that gain is only 3 … with other expected gains, that is enough.

    We’re in the home straight – don’t lose heart now.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    It’s worth using the Google trick on the following string to see Paul Kelly’s article in which he says Shorten is ready to govern. He concludes that the budget plan released yesterday closes the circle on Labor’s strategy to achieve three goals — a better budget surplus, huge social spending properly financed and a tax redistribution with a limit on the overall increase in taxation.
    Michael Koziol reports that Murdoch’s former chief lieutenant in Australia, Chris Mitchell, says criticism of News Corp’s political reporting from current and former journalists is “worth thinking about”, amid outrage over the media empire’s election coverage.
    Ross Gittins says we shouldn’t trust pollies to tell us the truth about tax.
    More from Gittins as he writes that the gains in Australia’s economic performance have been hit by setbacks in health and education.
    David Crowe writes that Labor is asking Australian voters to endorse a hugely ambitious tax agenda that could be cut to shreds in the next Parliament even if Bill Shorten becomes prime minister.
    Paul Bongiorno explains how the tide turned for Shorten last week. He says the odds are Morrison soon will be consigned to the museum along with Australia’s other political dinosaurs.
    Labor has challenged the Coalition to back its competing plan for tax cuts should Bill Shorten become prime minister, amid a dramatic shift by the Reserve Bank of Australia that throws doubt over the key economic and wage forecasts underpinning the budget.
    Eryk Bagshaw explains how Labor’s $32 billion plan to tax the ‘top end of town’ will hit 10 per cent of taxpayers.
    Michael Pascoe tells us how the RBA has just tprpedoed Frydenberg’s budget.
    The SMH editorial says that Bowen’s promise of surplus will be hard to fudge.
    Laura Tingle reckons there was a tectonic shift in the campaign debate last week.
    Colin Kruger tells us how Labor’s Cayman Islands adventure is igniting the base, but business is worried.
    Mike Seccombe doubts that the Nationals are still the party pf the bush.
    Elizabeth Knight says that that the big question for the Liberal Party is how it would spend the three years of another term in government. The Coalition has promised the status quo, with tax cuts. The tax cuts are, in effect, merely the “handing back” of taxes collected through the stealth process of “bracket creep”. When it published its list of legislative priorities last week, it revealed a work program that could be concluded in a few weeks of parliamentary sittings. Labor, on the other hand . . .
    According to the AFR Chris Bowen has put his colleagues on notice by warning them not to ask for more big spending measures should Labor win the election.
    Reaction to a savage attack on Labor leader Bill Shorten suggests something may be changing in News Corp’s Australian newspapers. Gay Alcorn asks if News Corp has gone too far this time.
    And Amanda Meade has her say on it by writing on hoe News Corp’s army of apologists are defending the ‘Mother of Invention’ attack on Bill Shorten.
    In a wide ranging one-on-one interview with Karen Middleton ahead of next week’s election, Bill Shorten has proposed he would, if necessary, set up a new regional processing facility in Papua New Guinea.
    The Saturday Paper’s Danielle Wood writes that if there is one economic theme that has emerged during this campaign, it is that Labor is throwing out the rule book. The Coalition, though, is sticking to the usual script.
    Adele Ferguson goes into detail in explain what wages theft is.
    Katharine Murphy writes that Morrison has done better than Turnbull or Abbott in the left-right balancing act but one area poses big problems – climate change.
    Peter Hannam tells us that the restart of Sydney’s desalination plant is proceeding faster than expected, helping to slow the drawdown of the city’s reservoirs amid the ongoing drought. The $2.3 billion plant, which resumed operations in January, has been supplying water to Sydney’s network for about six weeks. Production is now between 300 and 400 million litres per week.
    According to Karen Middleton the funding for many promises in this election campaign appears to be coming out of government grants with vague criteria. She concludes by saying “Ethics, like much of the funding criteria, can be subject to a broad interpretation.”
    The “strong economy” promised by Scott Morrison is far from anything the nation actually needs or grounded in reality, writes Peter Henning.,12659
    Angus Taylor’s promise of a 25% cut in power prices has been absolutely torn apart,
    Labor’s target of having half of all new car sales electric by 2030 is ambitious but not impossible as cheaper vehicles hit the Australian market.
    Peter Hartcher writes thanks to the ACCC Telstra and Optus will now get to sit back and watch the chaos surrounding the future of Vodafone and TPG. And capitalise on it.
    Michelle Grattan writes that focus groups are suggesting Wentworth is embracing Phelps, but Sharma is being helped by a fear of Labor.
    This summary of the testimony from an 84 year old resident to the Aged Care Royal Commission really puts some perspective into the industry,
    In a superb and heartfelt contribution Elizabeth Farrelly explains why news of a Christian-Muslim alliance sent a chill up her spine.
    Doug Dingwall reports that Labor has flagged a move towards public service-wide bargaining and a reversal of the Coalition government’s combative treatment of bureaucrats on pay and conditions.
    When Clive Palmer bought Queensland’s Coolum Resort in 2011, it was one of the country’s top luxury resorts. Today, it stands eerie and abandoned, with its residents and shareholders urging voters not to put their faith in the United Australia Party leader.
    Paula Matthewson examines some of the claims put out in the election campaigns.
    The discretion of the big banks to shape their own lending decisions is being tested in court, with ramifications for investors, home buyers and the economy.
    Tim Ferguson on how the Coalition has become a party of one.
    The CEO of LJ Hooker writes that i n the eyes of commercial property stakeholders, the leadership of whoever takes The Lodge after Saturday, May 18, will be levelled at one issue – the credit squeeze curtailing national investment and business growth.
    And for your morning purgative Christine Forster has written a piece imploring Warringah to re-elect her brother Tony, “the greatest political campaigner of his generation”.
    Burger giant McDonald’s will soon start paying out tens of millions of dollars in higher wages to its employees after it finally agreed to pay weekend penalty rates to its young workforce. Maccas, one of Australia’s biggest employers, also faces a claim for back pay that, if successful, could be worth more than $200 million to its predominantly young and low-paid employees.
    The chances of the UK staying in the EU are as high as 30% as the country would be likely to reject Brexit in a second referendum, the president of the European council, Donald Tusk, has said.
    Trump is digging in for protracted fight with China, saying the tariffs will make the US stronger.
    Rarely, or perhaps never, has one 148-word statement said so little and yet conveyed so much, not to mention highlighted so many hypocrisies for right to lifers and those on the ‘Trump’ side of the political spectrum. This is a cracker.
    Will America EVER wake up to itself?
    These days some of the decisions on the Archibald Prize leave me bewildered. 2019 is one of those occasions.
    These two brothers have earned nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    Another cracker from David Rowe.

    And he has a nice portrait of the shadow cabinet for us.

    Alan Moir excoriates four of our favourites.

    From Matt Golding

    Michael Leunig on social inclusion.

    John Shakespeare.

    Jim Pavlidis thinks Shorten is playing Morrison.

    A couple from Sean Leahy

    Jon Kudelka and the RBA raining on the parade.

    From the US

  18. 38% in the primary vote seems to be the peak in majority of states

    The LNP primary vote at the 2016 federal election in QLD was 43.1 %

    ‘LNP will be losing seats in QLD

    As with nationwide the libs/nats won’t be gaining seats when the primary vote is declining

  19. Just on the Murdoch mud-throwing:

    Logic says that if they had ANYTHING noteworthy, they’d have used it by now. With all the early voting, they could not have afforded to wait until the last few days. Perhaps the story about Ann Shorten was a last valiant attempt, I don’t know … but most of the smear has fallen on deaf ears so far and it would take something truly explosive at this point to have enough effect to sway the actual numbers.

  20. Those gender breakdowns could be explained by some Men shifting further right rom Coalition further to the right wing parties, UAP and PHON (and perhaps a smaller percentage to Fraser Annings Party), and women being more sensible…

  21. If by chance Labor form government however narrowly, Labor then construct some legislation regarding truth in reporting. Hopefully Labor and the Greens can work together in the Senate, perhaps with the help of independents to enable this legislation to be passed. It is very much needed.
    I believe ‘Victoria’ via PB recently suggested that the Liberal friendly press has some story to release regarding Shorten. If they do, it will happen now as the LNP are in desperationland.
    I often wonder what is needed to jolt the consciousness of the average Australia voter to attain a decisive Labor victory(with Greens involvement)!
    The present LNP mob are corrupt and hardly a ripple of dissent!

  22. I predict Labor will pick up around 4 or 5 seats in Queensland, although it could be seats like Leichhardt, Dickson and Brisbane being gained, while more marginal ones aren’t gained by Labor or even lost such as Herbert.

  23. according to internal Liberal Party polling that shows him level at 50-50”.


    After all the corrupt media propaganda for Abbott , who is in a safe liberal party seat is 50/50

    Not a good look for Abbott

  24. I have had a look at the senate ballot for my state(QLD).

    I am going to be glad to put a 25 and 26 on the paper. One is because they are trying to be very tricky with their names. The other is in my mind promoting very dangerous beliefs.

  25. Rule Number 1 in campaigns:
    * Get a good night’s sleep

    Rule Number 2:
    * Don’t think about politics if you wake up in the middle of the night because your mouth is dry

    Rule Number 3:
    * Don’t turn on your phone or computer and post to PB!

    If you don’t follow these rules then you will only end up driving yourself out of your mind, and that’s no good for yourself or the party you are campaigning for.

    My bill is in the mail. 🙂

  26. The libs/nats across the country may pick up some Labor individual seats , but over all they just can not gain seats and make the election competitive with a combined primary vote of 38% , the libs/nats combined primary vote in my opinion to be a majority government needs be over 44/45%. For the libs/nats to be chance of minority the combined primary vote needs to be 43% +

  27. “the biggest lol part of the mygov [Yougov] galaxy poll

    is this 848 respondents”

    The UK Tory Party connected Yougov understated the Labour vote by about 7 points in the UK 2017 elections. It is usually the most favourable poll for the Tory Party in polling, often by wide margins. The outfit has no value as a pollster.

  28. Regarding the twitter chatter I have been picking up, about a “smut” smear to be thrown at Shorten by Newscorp, it seems Paul Bongiorno of the Saturday paper has heard the same rumour:

    News Corp sources say the Tele has another story on their news file to throw at Shorten. It is highly defamatory and legally dubious. The desperation that led to the attack on Shorten and his mother’s memory may give them pause to think about running it. As one Labor campaign worker says, “It’s difficult to know where the government ends and News Corp begins.”

    We will know next Saturday night, but I am thinking that Newscorp may have overreached with the Ann shorten story, and their next bit of mud will not provide the shock and awe they are hoping for from the electorate.

  29. Briefly
    It can be difficult not to get caught up in the emotional rollercoaster
    when you are actually out on the hustings doing the hard yards.
    Whatever the result of the election, you have done all you possibly can to bring change.
    The ALP could do with more active participants like your good self.
    Chin up!

  30. BK I read that Paul Kelly piece in the Orstraylian but then I cruised down to the comments.
    OMG it was 100% wall to wall death to the infidel.
    It’s like Kelly wondered in there like a cancer cell and had to be eliminated.

  31. Unless I’m missing something, none of the Murdoch summaries of Qld seats the LNP is confident about include Dickson as one of them.

    Good. Can’t wait to not see Dutton any more.

  32. This talk of no net seats changing hands in QLD and these elaborate paths to victory seems to me like it’s more about raising morale and hope so that LNP volunteers keep showing up to hand out HTV cards rather than anything based in reality.

    Would trust Tingle’s assessment over that of random LNP “insiders”

  33. BK

    This year’s Archibald winner is … well … they say art is in the eye of the beholder.

    Still it will get people talking perhaps.

  34. The ABC is stuffed.

    Cranky Pants Noely ⚡️⚡️@YaThinkN
    Oh Good Dog! What tripe! Trying to equate Peter Dutton having an accident as a cop from years ago as similar experience of physical trauma to Ali France?

    “He was kept under observation at Ipswich Hospital for a “number of hours”.”

    (link:… #ABCJumpedTheShark

  35. This is a long copy and paste but I’m doing it for those of us that don’t normally see what goes on in The Australian or more specifically the caliber of the readers.These comments are as the came,unedited by me.
    They relate to and article by Paul Kelly editor at large of The Australian who has had the temerity to question “the line’.Article highlighted by BK earlier. Numbers Demonstrate a turning point:Shorten is ready to govern.
    8 minutes ago
    They win on surplus? I doubt it, I was still in primary school the last time the ALP delivered a surplus. Any surplus and Sally will come running with her hand out screaming give me more
    9 minutes ago
    A couple of assumptions seem to have been made in the preparation of this column:
    1. higher taxes lead to a stronger economy
    2. a Shorten led government will be sure to spend all the money it gets wisely
    3. no one ever tries to scam money from the government when it doles it out so joyfully – the child care and pink batts scams are a thing of the past
    4. the government knows what it is doing and will be sure to spend it much better than we could ever do for ourselves
    5. anyone who has a family trust is a rich tax avoider who should be crushed with punitive taxes
    6. small business will benefit from the reduced money circulating in private hands
    7. it is good to increase the percentage of those receiving government largesse to over 50% of the population, after all we are so infantile that we can’t ever learn to provide for ourselves
    8. paying more people to do nothing means they won’t sit down and do what they are being paid to do
    9. that business will continue to invest in an economy in which they know they are not welcome
    10. that if tax revenue drops, the spending locked into labor’s plans won’t affect the bottom line, as there are plenty of other targets for further tax revenue out there to shore up the new found surplus – have you seen how much money is in superannuation?.

    Did I say a couple of assumptions?

    11 minutes ago
    Represents a turning point alright – reality to fantasy.
    11 minutes ago
    Rhetoric is one thing, outcomes another. The trouble is simply Labor does not deliver.
    10 minutes ago
    Paul how could you be so blind to the economic cost of the climate agenda and the fact that the property value risk could seriously reduce consumer spending and GST take! Not what I expect from you
    15 minutes ago
    B,S and you Paul may think that labor are ready to Govern, but when yesterday the wharfies are refusing a handshake with Blinky Bill that has to tell you that the ordinary working voters don’t want anything to do with him or the labor party!

    16 minutes ago
    What a woefully biased headline.
    Maybe “ Can Australia afford a Shorten government” or similar would be more accurate.
    18 minutes ago
    Labor has an appalling economic record and couldn’t spell the word surplus little own manage one. Their big taxing big spending and dishonest green strategy in a time of global uncertainty is a recipe for disaster.
    17 minutes ago
    Well if “economic conservative” Shorten’s numbers are fake, what then? Because they are fake. Labor doesn’t deliver surpluses. Sure labor leaders talk about them quite a lot – they just never deliver them. The one and only Labor surplus was in 1989 under Keating, and it was a wafer thin accounting fiddle. Shorten has nothing to offer anyone. Not even the low paid workers at the AWU who he deceived for his own personal benefit; just like now. But you know, with the ALP/Greens the money always disappears with nothing to show for it.
    17 minutes ago
    When are you going to ask the ALP the impact of $387B in new taxes to GDP growth? The ALP won’t achieve the growth projections of the Coalition , $387B in new taxes will destroy the economy. The highly taxed will legally adjust their strategies, growth will slow, the taxes will not be delivered, surpluses will not eventuate, and the ALP will bake new unfunded expenditure into future budgets. Try harder please.
    20 minutes ago
    Labor’s surplus won’t come from spending restraint, it comes straight out of our pockets, through bracket creep and the like, its just OUR money!

    While Labor’s budget may be in surplus, family budgets will be under pressure, almost everyone pays higher taxes under Labor.
    20 minutes ago
    I fear that Mr Kelly is showing his true colours here. I do not believe Labor is ready, indeed fit, to govern. Other than its determination to impose extra tax on a certain sector of the population, including self-funded retirees living off modest incomes derived from their investments held in superannuation, I have seen no sign that Labor has any substantial idea of the costing and implementation of its electoral policy manifesto much of which is designed to benefit the unions – a recipe for chaos.
    22 minutes ago
    Wrong Paul Kelly. No costings for climate policy which will slug Australians and the economy, no costing for extra refugee intake, no costing for more retirees going on the pension, no costing for pay increases for public servants etc etc.
    30 minutes ago
    Your true colors are showing now, was this a copy and paste straight from your mates. You clearly have no economic understanding please leave this to the Australian’s financial analysts team to decipher for you
    30 minutes ago
    Paul you’re actually believing Labor’s phantasmagoric policies as a given in economic outcomes! Think of capital flight or discretionary behaviour by those most affected by these policy changes. I’m shocked you’d swallow this shallow, mean and partisan direction of the ALP.
    32 minutes ago
    Increasing tax in the face of a falling economy? Also does the cost of all Labor’s climate change initiatives sit with the tax cap as a percentage of GDP? Bottom line is the ability of business to invest is going to be choked and the ability for consumers to spend will be distant memories.
    35 minutes ago
    Beyond belief that any thinking voter would be casting a vote for Shorten! Where are the answers for the ‘climate change’ hysteria costings? As yet a secret possibly because HE nor any of his Labor co-horts don’t know!
    Where is the gumption journos….asking questions about Adani, immigration, security, law and order issues etc. etc. etc. and expecting answers, not just allowing to be sidelined, challenge PLEASE!!!!
    Surely there those out there News Corp land with enough spine to call out these potential destructive snake oil salesmen’s plans for Australia’s economy…..and future?

    39 minutes ago
    Look Paul, I used to believe in fairy tales when I was a young lad too. If you trust their modelling and believe their story, I have some great investment opportunities for you…
    24 minutes ago
    Yes Andrew, you are spot on. This is an article that should be retained and reviewed in three years’ time to gauge if Labor has made the surpluses that they say they will – my guess Bowen will not be in a bull’s roar of these surpluses. It will be impossible for Labor to achieve these outcomes and they still haven’t told us the cost of their green policies. I am surprised that Paul has fallen for their rhetoric.
    42 minutes ago
    The Labor budget is is just funny money.
    It is all just a shadow-puppet show.
    Rudd went into the 2007 election acting like Howard-lite, a fiscal conservative, and within two years they were spending like a drunken sailor again.
    We do need to assess costed policies, but we also need to assess Labor’s priorities and intent.
    Beyond the budget, Shorten refuses to conduct a rational cost assessment of his climate change policies.
    He has no interest in productivity or economic growth, only in spending and redistribution.
    Shorten has shown clearly that the economy is simply not a priority for him.
    During his term as PM, there will be another global financial crisis and he will be Keynesian the likes of which has never been seen in Australian history.
    46 minutes ago
    But where is the cost of their climate policy?
    33 minutes ago
    Tell me the price son, tell me the price.
    45 minutes ago
    You can’t take the Labor out of the pundit. This piece is beneath Paul Kelly; you only have to do the math. Labor has a basic misunderstanding of how business operates and Shorten is reviving the “poor us” and the “rich them” attitude that Gough had and that put us back years. Here we go again. Run up the numbers, let the coalition clean yup the mess and when the bubbles have subsided come back in again with another bunch of “fair go” promises.
    47 minutes ago
    This is Paul Kelly’ s nonesense about Chris Bowen’s nonsense. Bowen is rehearsing his comedy routine.
    47 minutes ago
    Correction …architects of the Kemlahni affair.
    53 minutes ago
    The worry is that too many have drunk the red cordial surrounding climate change and are quite happy to give BS a blank cheque to fix a largely unproven theory masquerading as a cult, (or vica versa). Unfortunately the Libs have not helped by also buying into this nonsense and now it is a race to the bottom. How can Labor surpluses can be reached when the figure likely to significantly impede it’s realisation is not being revealed? Or is this just an accountant’s “rounding error”?
    54 minutes ago
    I cannot understand your endorsement of the ALP. You obviously have the advantage of actually meeting these people whereas people like me can only observe and make judgements on what we read, etc. My view of the ALP is not good, and my feelings towards Shorten are that he is not ready to govern and never will be as he is a man that cannot be trusted. I do not admire or like any of the people who will make up the front bench, in fact I think they are equally incompetent and untrustworthy. How any journalist could support and advocate for any of these people is beyond me. Australia will cease as the country we now live in and we shall be at a disadvantage as a Nation if the ALP comes to power.
    55 minutes ago
    Ready to govern? Perhaps but remember the Whitlam era when some of his ministers, drunk on power, went feral… Kemlahni.
    55 minutes ago
    A gotcha moment? Have you been asleep for the last 2 or 3 years. Labor’s plans have been clear for a long time. Or more likely, is Rupert getting nervous, because of his minion’s, Mr Kelly chief amongst them, hostile attacks on Shorten have clearly been over the top.
    56 minutes ago
    Ready to wreck more like it..

    1 hour ago
    I agree with Keith’s comments.
    How the media cannot be held to account, bar a few, for running a protection racket around Bill Shorten, beggars belief.
    We don’t need Richard Di Natalie proposing to gag the media as the media is doing a fine job of that themselves !
    1 hour ago
    Paul, without climate change included in the costings the projections are totally useless.
    That asumes of course you can believe Labor’s figures, their track record suggests otherwise.
    1 hour ago
    Wow. Where is the economic analysis and rational assessment that we should expect from some one held in high regard. Paul, you need to sit down with Judith Sloan, Henry Ergas and Terry McCrann for some basic instruction.
    1 hour ago
    Paul, surely you do not believe that which you have written. The economy is currently sitting on a knifes edge due to the politicising and grand standing of the banking enquiry which has resulted in nothing more than a severe slowing of the economy. Now if you believe any government can increase taxes to the extent that BS and Labor are proposing without a decisive negative blow to GDP then you are mistaken.
    Within a very short period under Labor/Greens the economy will enter recession however I am sure that Labor will then proceed to blame the current government for the state of the “books” they were forced to receive.
    However, this may be a lesson that the younger people of Australia will have to experience for themselves.
    1 hour ago
    All of these crazy election promises Shorten has made he knows full well he can make excuses if they do not bear fruit such as the Senate etc. It staggers me to believe people can fall for this.
    1 hour ago
    Is this a paid script from Labor? Normally you cant Trust Liars, if you do your stupid, that’s how the saying goes..

    1 hour ago
    Ready to govern…Just like ‘I’m a fiscal conservative’ Kev 07?
    Journo’s just as lazy and complicit as last time.
    Apart from the obvious economy shattering socialist policies, we know Labor are internally divided and any external event, e.g. boat arrivals, will see the illusion of unity and budget responsibility destroyed.
    1 hour ago
    Paul history will show like the number of investors buying new properties or Swannies mining tax and 4 budget surpluses the ALP will be economically incompetent

    The real issue is that the hard left of the ALP and the Greens and GetUp who they will owe largely for any win, will demand a high price.

    Surpluses won’t be achieved because spending to appease will always trump a surplus
    1 hour ago
    Ready to perhaps ,fit to ?
    1 hour ago
    So according to your summary Paul labor’s climate policy cost is $0 ?
    54 minutes ago
    Paul seems to want to prove that he is a true prophet. He is assuming that Labor will win and then he will be able to say that he correctly examined the pigeons entrails and they told him that the mysterious ‘gotcha moment’ was the Labor wonderful fiscal statement. What a prophet. What a seer ! He belongs in Ancient Rome!
    1 hour ago
    History, and in particular past performance, IS the best predictor of the future.

    Labor’s record on actually delivering budget surpluses is ABYSMAL. Don’t be fooled. They are the same animal as before. They spend, they TAX and the economy suffers, we suffer and our national debt grows ever larger. Just look at the parlous state of the Labor governed States and the NT if you want a glimpse into the future. Be afraid!

    They are riding on the back of the man-made climate change zeitgeist and inter generational warfare, whipping both into a frenzy to capture in particular the Millennial vote. If they succeed they will BEGGAR our country, DESTROY our economy and IMPOVERISH us all! And in doing so, make not one IOTA of actual difference to the worlds atmosphere. Utter lunacy!

    Labor and the Greens are CHARLATANS and a very real threat to our future at a time of great worldwide uncertainty. Don’t succumb and fall for it again. It’s pain we don’t need to and can’t afford to suffer through.
    1 hour ago
    Both sides can promise a surplus but, only one party has a history of delivering.
    Remember Bowen’s last crack at a portfolio…still paying for that one.
    1 hour ago
    Reading through the commments, it seems like Mr Kelly is in a minority of one.
    1 hour ago
    Apart from a single uncomfortable moment created by a channel 10 reporter the media has failed miserably to provide the voting public with answers to the glaring questions on costings for shortens climate policy. I have read this paper, watched various news on TV but it seems the media is OK with Shorten promoting his crazy climate policy with no cost to us. This is absolute nonsense. Kelly almost gushes as he goes through his glowing assessment of this dangerous individual and his apparent readiness to govern this country. Paul, you have let yourself down and you along with many others in the media should be ashamed.
    53 minutes ago
    I agree absolutely with your summation. I am appalled and disappointed that you Mr. Kelly can support such a man as Shorten, in fact I am amazed.
    1 hour ago
    Jee wiz! I think you are giving a bit too much credit to labour here. Their money management is historically abysmal and many of the same old faces are there. I couldn’t trust them to carry out this plan irrespective if it’s any good or not and hopefully the electorate can’t either. All this added to the other weird and threatening agendas they have for our way of life just makes it a no brainer for me to steer right clear of them. They cannot be trusted in my opinion!
    1 hour ago
    mate so you think that libs are economic messiahs how about this
    1.No budget surplus since coming to office in 2013
    2. They have doubled the net debt to $ 370 billion dollars
    3. They have doubled the gross debt to over half trillion dollars to $570 billion
    4. The lowest wages increases in living memory
    I would not call that a great result
    18 minutes ago
    From 2007 to 2013 Labor ran up a debt of $600 billion. They paid for $240 billion and deferred $360 billion for the incoming government by way of political landmines, be it the NDIS, NBN, Gonski, government debt, unpaid loans, a people smuggling trade etc. If the Coalition did run up $370 billion of new debt, what coalition policies are responsible – didn’t think so.
    1 hour ago
    Venustralia here we come if BS win.
    1 hour ago
    Bill Shorten could have a higher surplus only because of his Big Taxing Agenda. And if elected ( my view is that he won’t be ) Bill Shorten has to get many changes through the Senate such as Franking Credits, Increase in Capital Gains and Negative Gearing. And if he cannot get what he wants through the Senate his Budget will be a Wipe Out. Whereas with a Morrison Government there won’t be any rise in tax and he is well on track for a Budget Surplus. Oh yes, then Bill Shorten wants to give us higher priced renewables and an expensive electric car that takes all day to charge up. As far as I’m concerned Labor are not ready to govern at all. In fact it’s quite the opposite.
    1 hour ago
    I am in shock to read this assessment from someone I have respect for. Bill and his would be treasurer could run a union and that his about all. I dread to think of the image Shorten would create on the international stage. A labour win in the election poses a serious risk for Australia.
    1 hour ago
    If you read the article Kelly is not endorsing Shorten or his economic platform.
    22 minutes ago
    I disagree, the spirit of this article wholeheartedly endorses the ALP.
    Kelly is obviously backing Shorten.
    Extremely disappointed with the biased tone of it. He hasn’t even bothered to go near the ALP climate costings. Probably too afraid of being called dumb by Shorten.
    1 hour ago
    Labor spells the end of reward for individual effort and enterprise and the rapid emergence of the hand out culture
    2 hours ago
    You fail to mention the elephant in the room, Paul – the impact of Labor’s climate change policy. Thats’s a budget buster of monumental proportions, which is why they won’t put a figure on it.
    2 hours ago
    No climate policy costings, leaving out the flow on effects of their higher taxes, not factoring higher pension payouts because of ending franking credits, and no surplus from Labor in living memory…..give us a break Mr Kelly or rather stick to political reporting and leave the fiscal and numbers stuff to the experts.
    1 hour ago
    And an Increase in the Newstart Allowance has not been factored in either. That will blow the budget. Or maybe Bill Shorten is not giving that Increase anymore. He does tend to forget and change his mind at the drop of a hat. Everything is on the table with this bloke
    2 hours ago
    Labor is always ready to lie it’s way into power. Labor will destroy our economy.

  36. Douglas and Milko @ #34 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:24 am

    Regarding the twitter chatter I have been picking up, about a “smut” smear to be thrown at Shorten by Newscorp, it seems Paul Bongiorno of the Saturday paper has heard the same rumour:

    News Corp sources say the Tele has another story on their news file to throw at Shorten. It is highly defamatory and legally dubious. The desperation that led to the attack on Shorten and his mother’s memory may give them pause to think about running it. As one Labor campaign worker says, “It’s difficult to know where the government ends and News Corp begins.”

    We will know next Saturday night, but I am thinking that Newscorp may have overreached with the Ann shorten story, and their next bit of mud will not provide the shock and awe they are hoping for from the electorate.

    My guess is this alleged huge scandal against Shorten will relate to this:

  37. Morning all. Thanks BK. Somebody in the ABC is finally doing some investigative journalism on Peter Dutton. There are parallels between he and Ali France but also some big differences. Both were in car accidents, but Dutton was the driver in his own and still sought $250k compo. France was the victim in hers and got on with her life. The main difference seems to be greed.

    Too bad they didn’t investigate how Dutton acquired his millions in real estate.

  38. Signing off for the night, but my plans for election night, on Bonn time are:

    1600 (Syd). 0800 (Bonn): Make sure ABC24 live streaming works. Do a forensic search for each and every exit poll and piece of commentary. Have morning coffee.

    1800 (Syd ) 1000 (Bonn) Obsessively watch Anthony Green on ABC 24, while obsessively reading pollbludger commentary. Have more coffee.

    1900 (Syd) 1100 (Bonn) Read entrails on Poll Bludger meanwhile hanging off Anthony Green’s analysis. Have more coffee, but with a schnapps chaser.

    2000 (Syd) 1200 (Bonn) Surely there is a result by now! Send OH to nearby kiosk for beer, promising to let him know if anything happens in the 10 mins he is away. OH looks visibly relieved to escape the frenetic atmosphere of our bedsit.

    2100 (Syd) 1300 (Bonn) Where is OH with beer? The sun is over the yard arm even here.

    2110 (Syd) 1310 (Bonn) OH finally turns up with beer. Apparently all kiosks nearby were inexplicably closed. OH looks nervous – has Antony Green called the election yet? Is the cat alive or dead?

    2130 (Syd) 1330 (Bonn) Whatever happens we figure it is time to let off some steam, power walking through the fields, listening to Wagner – well me anyway – OH is more a Robert Johnson blues kind of guy.

    2200 (Syd) 1400 (Bonn) Alright, the fields are not that extensive, and we were only heading for a pub with wifi anyway. Settle in at the Fiddlers in a village called Endernich. Either celebrate or drown out sorrows!

    2400 (Syd) 1600 (Bonn) I have spent the last two hours getting every piece of information, every statistic I can. OH is now reading his book, saying “it is over”. We have had some excellent single malt Irish whisky in the last two hours, but the ABC have ended their coverage.

    We stagger home through the fields, singing “The people’s flag is deepest red”, and occasionally resting (passing out) on the many excellent and luxurious park benches provided on the paths through the fields.

    0300 (Syd) 1900 (Bonn) Inexplicably we are very tired and emotional, despite the early hour. We collapse into bed.

    0700 (Bonn) Who actually did win? WE should NOT have played that drinking game where every time a far right wing idjit looked like losing his seat, we drank a shot.

  39. C@tmomma @ #31 Saturday, May 11th, 2019 – 7:14 am

    Rule Number 1 in campaigns:
    * Get a good night’s sleep

    Rule Number 2:
    * Don’t think about politics if you wake up in the middle of the night because your mouth is dry

    Rule Number 3:
    * Don’t turn on your phone or computer and post to PB!

    If you don’t follow these rules then you will only end up driving yourself out of your mind, and that’s no good for yourself or the party you are campaigning for.

    My bill is in the mail. 🙂

    My Bill is on the ballot paper.

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *