Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

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  1. Peter van Onselen
    ‏@vanOnselenP

    Both sides will claim they won, unlike the first two debates Shorten won according to the assembled undecided voters there is no equivalent at this debate. Shorten stumbles a few times, but overall he convincingly won this debate, without a shadow of a doubt.

  2. Labor has had a VERY strong week. Stronger than last week.

    Bill did amazing on QandA.
    Then today’s gaffe.
    Tonight, you have even Sky News hosts calling the debate for Bill.

  3. Kieran Gilbert reckons the Daily Toilet story “This was the key moment of the campaign in my view”. “This will be a turning point in the campaign and his response to it”.

  4. Charles @ #1088 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:41 pm

    And if you recall, Morrison brought up Kelly ODwyer and shouty aggressive Morrison came out.

    Yes. My take was that the outraged aggression was as effective as it was fabricated. 🙂

    With the rest of the debate being fairly ordinary, it was one of the few events that stood out.

  5. Amy Remeikis in The Guardian

    Now, having a look through those questions again, it is interesting that both leaders chose to ask each other questions about Labor policies.

    Amy – the questions have to be about Labor policies, because the Coalition don’t have any!

  6. Laura Jayes says the coalition is in no-man’s-land on climate change. 😮 😮 😮 😮

    Have the day crew forgotten they are on the after dark schedule?

  7. Bill and the Labor Brains Trust have known what the ‘Come in Spinner’ issue has been for this election.

    Climate Change.

    Every time the Murdoch idiots banged on about the cost, the price, the billions, the gazillions – and every time Scotty banged on about how many tonnes they were meeting in a canter with the Paris commitments – every time it was ‘Come in Spinner’. Reel ‘em in.

    The people want action on Climate Change. They want the government to do something, spend money.

    And the killer rebuttal you saw tonight -,the cost of inaction. The opportunity cost. The price we all pay for a fwarked planet, with outer Pacific neighbours being swallowed by rising seas, the bushfires, droughts, heatwaves, extreme weather events, biodiversity losses – the Great Barrier Reef bleaching, the Murray Darling fish kills…

    What is the cost, Scotty and Rupert? Come in Spinner.

  8. From Amy

    Now, having a look through those questions again, it is interesting that both leaders chose to ask each other questions about Labor policies.

    Bill Shorten asked Scott Morrison if he would support Labor policies on cancer spending and childcare.

    Scott Morrison asked Bill Shorten about Labor’s policy on superannuation and negative gearing.

    This entire election campaign has been about Labor’s policies. The entire campaign. For both sides

    The reason…. there are NO Liberal policies!.. my comment

  9. poroti says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:41 pm

    Sky orcs……
    Chris Kenny – Noted it “was all about Labor policy”. Scrott had “substance” unlike Bill of course.

    That is often a problem when you have none of your own!

  10. Cud Chewer

    Luck?

    Such as the Stock Exchange Crash of 1987 when the DJIA fell 25% in one session, or the Stock Exchange Crash of 2008 and the GFC?

    There are no guarantees in life and you make your own luck

    So commitment to education, commitment to the work place building a reputation because of performance, living within your means including paying off debt then diversity, compounding and time

    Everyone is rich enough to do something – the secret being not to over extend but equally not to underachieve

    And just to finish off – as FULLY self funded retirees, so now paying no tax apart from the GST and unknown to government, my wife and I continue to donate to certain causes

    So, unlike other demographics now evident across society today, not driven by reducing our tax impost or receiving any Credits from the ATO

    Takes all types doesn’t it?

  11. Boerwar:

    Is Bluey’s prediction of a 8-9 seat net gain to Labor based on a starting point of 69 seats won at the last election or the notional starting point of 72, as per the redistributions?

  12. Boerwar I agree with that and I thought those were among Bill Shorten’s stronger moments – he genuinely appears to be offering a preferable alternative to more of the same. I’m biased of course but trying to imagine myself as a completely uninformed voter, things such as his comments about shipyard closures had a lot of impact, even when you don’t know the details of the topic.

  13. One of the points made over on The Guardian tells you all you need to know about this entire election campaign….

    “Now, having a look through those questions again, it is interesting that both leaders chose to ask each other questions about Labor policies.
    Bill Shorten asked Scott Morrison if he would support Labor policies on cancer spending and childcare.
    Scott Morrison asked Bill Shorten about Labor’s policy on superannuation and negative gearing.

    This entire election campaign has been about Labor’s policies. The entire campaign. For both sides.” End quote/

    The liberals and scomo can’t discuss liberal policies because they’ve got fuck all of them and the ones they have got are shit…

  14. Gilbert says the Liberal morning brains trust teleconference identified today’s DT front page identified as a HUGE RISK for them.

  15. Thanks to those who gave us a running commentary of tonight’s event. I watched for the first 5 minutes or so, but the who set up seemed so stiff and not conducive to either Shorten or Morrison. Whether this last debate, or the other two, will have any impact on voting is yet to be seen. However, I believed in Debates 1 and 2, Shorten had Morrison’s measure. From reports current, that is still the case. Why the heck the NPC did not organise something a bit more free-ranging – and find someone else with a bit more going for her than Sabra Lane – is disappointing.

  16. And the generational theft with baby boomer rorts with franking credits and negative gearing is a sleeper – taxpayers money being showered on the well to do, with their yachts and multiple properties.

    Subliminal messaging – yes it’s ok to protest vote for a minor, Indie,- even a RWNJ Party – but preference Labor ahead of the LNP who don’t care about you at all – demographically speaking.

  17. The Weekly spending 10 minutes getting stuck into Shorten in in the name of satire.
    Guess they want their season renewed.

  18. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:36 pm
    David Speers says tonight’s performance wasn’t enough for Scotty to win the election

    Of course not. It was never going to be. Not enough people take an interest in these events to make that much difference.

  19. So I guess it all now hinges on Bowens costings that are released on Friday. Nervous times for Labor partisans no doubt.

  20. And Boerwar is an individual with an imaginary octopus as a friend.

    Woa! Fake news. Next you will be telling lies about the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy.

  21. Not sure whether this is a panic station move or just poor performance but I have today received Ian Goodenough’s wrap around for a postal vote application. When I used to work in politics it was the first mail out of the campaign. Not the one to arrive ten days out. Given the margin in Moore I am going to put it down to incompetence.

  22. Not really Rex…

    Goodness – every time you tell us what Labor partisans are thinking/doing/feeling … I’m not doing any of them and makes me wonder “am I really a partisan?”

  23. Quite amazing to see the Sky mob coming out in favour of Shorten. Chris Kenny was the biggest surprise. I would have bet big money against that. Morrison will not be pleased.

  24. A note on the appropriate government orientation towards the current economy:

    The majority of the business community (small to medium businesses) I have spoken to this electoral cycle have been calling out for greater intervention by the government in the economy and have been for at least the last 12 months.

    Tax breaks for consumers (without service reduction), running greater deficits, adjusting the timing of taxation on business (e.g. with increased lag), allowing the tax department to offer more leeway for businesses making payments but struggling, and even putting more dollars directly in consumer pockets a la Kevin Rudd.

    They would also love to see a drop in official interests rates, and more pressure on banks to pass on the full cut and also greater restrictions on banks winding up businesses – forcing them to come to the plate on extending time to pay, and loan durations rather than having loans and businesses wound up immediately at great loss to the business, workers and bank itself.

    A few things they don’t want to see: rises in the minimum wage, re-introduction of excessive penalty rates and increased restricting on hiring/firing with many stating this would see them either shed workers or curtail hiring.

    All natural Liberal voters, all scared to direct the vote to Labor even though they recognise that Labor is more orientated (at least rhetorically) to stimulatory government measures. Their fear?
    Labor would go too far and make bad policy on the run, and run up deficits too high.
    Fears I think are reasonable.

  25. IMO the importance of the debates is a sort of meta reality thing.
    Morrison has more or less been totally insulated from real questions by real journalists during the campaign.
    His management team ensures that he is never ambushed in a shopping centre.
    The pressers are tightly choreographed.
    His Newscorps besties get endless exclusives.
    His Newscorps besties never ask him a hard question.
    They get to ask all the questions.
    He does not answer a question he does not like.
    If the worst comes to the worst, he walks away from the pressers.
    The problem for Morrison in the debates is that he gets cornered by two realities.
    The first reality is that he routinely lies and that he cannot defend his lies when cornered.
    The second reality is that the inner Morrison shines through.
    And exactly what is the inner Morrison?
    He is a second rate used car salesman selling an abused second hand car with the rust painted over and the speedo wound back.

  26. Peter van OnselenVerified account @vanOnselenP
    25m25 minutes ago
    PM: “who is going to be your home affairs minister”. The government hasn’t replaced its indigenous minister, IR minister, women’s minister, human services minister…. omg

    …Foreign Affairs Minister…

  27. Shorten showed off his defence knowledge giving a detailed answer, arguing that defence projects for decades have in fact been bipartisan and rattling off specific examples. It took away any advantage Morrison may have hoped for. And to be fair, Shortens answer was more convincing.

  28. Bill badly missed the chance to point out that Kelly O’Dwyer said that her colleagues were a bunch of homophobic, women hating, climate deniers, before resigning.

  29. The looming problem for the LNP with Morrison, is that he is all they have got………apart from tedious attacks on Labor blaming Labor for every ill in the country. After having bagged Shorten as an “easy beat” for months, and the MSM falling over themselves in the first week of the campaign or so to endorse this view, the failure of Morrison in the three times he has met Shorten, to come up with some floor-wiping means there is not much left for them up until May Day. As the smart people have pointed out, all the discussion was about Labor’s policies……..for good or bad…………whereas, like Mother Hubbard’s Cupboard, the LNP are without a policy bone.

  30. poroti @ #1088 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:41 pm

    Sky orcs……
    Laura Jayes-Both went well. Shorten narrow win.
    Speers -Scrott did not do enough to make much difference.Shorten will be pleased.
    Chris Kenny – Noted it “was all about Labor policy”. Scrott had “substance” unlike Bill of course.
    Conroy- Shock horror he liked Shorten . So much so “Bill has his mojo back” 🙂

    But I thought that the substance that ScoMo was on is illegal?

  31. ‘Simon² Katich® says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:54 pm

    And Boerwar is an individual with an imaginary octopus as a friend.

    Woa! Fake news. Next you will be telling lies about the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy.’

    I asked Bluey about this. He reckons that Lars had better sleep with his head under the blankets tonight.

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